NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Regional Radar and MRMS Reflectivity show lake effect rain showers east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario late this evening. An upstream connection off Georgian Bay is feeding into lake effect showers south of Lake Ontario. Expect showers to become confined to areas southeast of the Lakes overnight.

Stacked low pressure to our north will circulate very cool air into our region, with 850mb temps dropping to near zero C by late tonight. The general northwest flow will direct the steadiest lake effect showers southeast of the lakes, across the Western Southern Tier and along the south shores of Lake Ontario from Monroe to Oswego counties tonight. A higher cap of 5-10 kft and deeper moisture from the upper low will support steadier showers off Lake Ontario. Otherwise, tonight will feature a partial clearing with cold air advection dropping temperatures into the 40s.

The upper low will move further away during Sunday as it moves northeastward. Warmer air aloft and less moisture will cause lake effect rain showers to diminish in coverage, although some will linger east of Lake Ontario at least through the morning hours.
Meanwhile a partial clearing in the skies will help mix winds aloft to the surface resulting in wind gusts to around 30 mph during the day. It'll be another cool day, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

As the low pulls further away, the flow will shift more to the west.
Aloft a secondary trough axis will pivot across our area, which will provide some additional moisture which will cause limited lake effect showers to re-develop east of the lakes Sunday night. There will be less lake induced instability with 850mb temps rising to +7C. It'll be warmer with low temperatures ranging from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Model consensus continues to be fairly well aligned with the timing and track of one last robust shortwave embedded within the main longwave trough crossing over western and northcentral NY on Monday.
H85 temps will remain just cold enough for some lake enhancement, although there will be a good amount of directional shear within an averaged west to northwest boundary layer flow owed to the shortwave crossing near or right overhead our area. Add in favorable timing with diurnal heating increasing instability and there will likely be embedded convection as well, along with some scattered thunderstorms developing Monday afternoon into the early evening, a few of which may contain some gusty winds and small hail. This will need to be watched. If the environment becomes more supportive of deeper, more organized convection, potential will exist for a storm or two to possibly reach severe limits. With all this in mind and collaboration with surrounding offices, raised PoPs into the Lkly range for now. However, if consensus remains well aligned, can see eventually raising PoPs to Categorical with future forecast packages. It will be another breezy day with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph late morning through the afternoon hours. Our gradual day-to-day warming will be underway, although highs Monday will still be a little below average with highs mainly ranging from the mid 60s to around 70.

Aforementioned shortwave will exit east of the area Monday night, and will help to finally kick the main longwave trough axis to our east as well. This will allow any lingering light synoptic/lake enhanced showers east/southeast of the Lakes to taper off from northwest to southeast through the night. A sprawling area of high pressure will then build across the region, bringing the start of what will be a prolonged stretch of dry weather along with temperatures rising back above normal for mid to late week.
Otherwise, seasonably chilly low temps expected Monday night and Tuesday night with lows mainly ranging from the upper 40s to mid 50s both nights. Temperatures Tuesday rebound back to near normal with daytime highs mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s, with some mid 70s possible across the lake plains of western NY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Broad mid-level ridging will build east-northeast across the Midwest and the Great Lakes throughout the end of the week and beyond.
Associated surface high pressure will persist across western and north central New York, supporting not only dry weather but above normal temperatures. This being said, daytime highs will average 10 degrees warmer than normal.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Mainly VFR weather through tonight, although there will be areas of MVFR in lake effect showers. Lake effect showers will become organized southeast of the lakes tonight, which may impact KROC and KJHW overnight.

On Sunday, a partial clearing with mainly VFR flight conditions during the day. Diurnal CU will develop with ceilings between 3.5-5k Sunday. It'll be breezy wind gusts 25 to 30 knots.
Higher gusts will be found near the southern shore of Lake Ontario.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of lake effect rain showers at times east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR.

MARINE
A deep storm system moving from eastern Ontario to Quebec through Sunday will support widespread small craft advisory conditions on Lake Ontario, and Lake Erie and the Niagara River. As the surface pressure gradient weakens Sunday night, west to southwest winds will gradually drop off.

The cool air wrapping around the large storm system will support the risk for waterspouts this weekend into Monday. Waterspouts are most likely in and near bands of convective lake effect clouds and showers where low level convergence/vorticity is found.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday afternoon for NYZ001>007-019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for LOZ045.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ030.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LOZ042>044.