Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ludington, MI
March 29, 2024 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:29 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 8:13 AM |
LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Am Edt Fri Mar 29 2024
Early this morning - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Today - Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots veering north late in the day. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering east after midnight. Rain showers likely. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday - East winds 10 to 20 knots backing north late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday night - North winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday - East winds 5 to 10 knots backing northeast 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - North winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 291056 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 656 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain/isolated storms/freezing rain tonight
- Low Chance of Precipitation Sunday, Better Monday-Wednesday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
- Rain/isolated storms/freezing rain tonight
Today will start off sunny, but we'll see high clouds increase during the afternoon as low pressure moves toward Iowa. As isentropic lift strengthens ahead of the low rain will develop over northeast IL/northwest IN this evening and move into the southwest cwa toward midnight. MUCAPE in the 300-400 j/kg range and elevated LI's around -1C suggests a thunder possibility south of a Muskegon to Lansing line.
Across the northern cwa, a cool feed of easterly air will help to erode some of the precipitation as well as advect colder air into that part of the cwa. Once the precipitation overcomes the drier air, we'll probably see some light freezing rain develop north of a Ludington to Mt Pleasant line after midnight. The short duration of freezing precipitation may negate the need for a headline, but not out of the question that we may need one at some point; the short range models have deceased the ice accums somewhat.
The precipitation will end Saturday morning as the low continues moving east away from the cwa.
Highs today will range from the upper 40s near US-10 to mid 50s near I-94. A tighter temperature gradient will exist Saturday with highs in the lower 40s north to upper 50s south.
- Low Chance of Precipitation Sunday, Better Monday-Wednesday
The long term portion of the forecast begins with surface ridging within a zonal upper-level pattern across the central Great Lakes. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as moisture arrives, highest near I94, with weak isentropic ascent ongoing.
More widespread showers are expected Monday into Tuesday as the zonal flow pattern is replaced by a an upper-level trough with leading shortwaves. This results in a deep surface low tracking through the region, with some uncertainties in track remaining at present. However there is general agreement that West Michigan remains placed in the warm sector of the system. Warm air advection looks to bring highs in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday before highs in the 40s are expected behind the system. This system has the potential to be a ample rain producer. PWATS early next week climb into above the NAEFS 90th percentile in the 0.75-1 inch range.
Current NBM probabilities for rainfall over 1 inch from Sunday- Tuesday are in the 30-50 percent range, highest across the southern CWA Thunder chances are low given instability primarily remaining south of the area.
Wrap-around precipitation behind the surface low then brings the chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday as the upper-level trough and associated thermal trough tracks overhead. Given spread in surface temperatures in the vicinity of freezing (given this is days in the future) certainty in rain versus snow is low at present. This precipitation ends later Wednesday into Thursday as the upper-level trough pulls away with surface ridging moving into the Central Great Lakes.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
High confidence in VFR through 06z Saturday as generally SKC today sees ceilings falling tonight as a complex of showers approaches.
Have adjusted shower start times later compared to 06z TAFs to better account for the low level dry air that will be in place. After that, widespread MVFR conditions with localized pockets of IFR possible are expected due to rain showers and mist. Cannot rule out thunder mainly at the I94 terminals, but confidence is too low this far out to include thunder in the TAFs. Westerly winds of 5-10 knots expected today becoming easterly at 2-5 knots tonight.
MARINE
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
West winds today will become offshore this evening as low pressure moves closer to the region. Once the low moves east Saturday afternoon, winds will become northwesterly and gusty. It's possible a Small Craft Advisory may be needed then, but less than certain at this point.
A stronger system looks like it will develop early next week and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday night through Wednesday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 656 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain/isolated storms/freezing rain tonight
- Low Chance of Precipitation Sunday, Better Monday-Wednesday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
- Rain/isolated storms/freezing rain tonight
Today will start off sunny, but we'll see high clouds increase during the afternoon as low pressure moves toward Iowa. As isentropic lift strengthens ahead of the low rain will develop over northeast IL/northwest IN this evening and move into the southwest cwa toward midnight. MUCAPE in the 300-400 j/kg range and elevated LI's around -1C suggests a thunder possibility south of a Muskegon to Lansing line.
Across the northern cwa, a cool feed of easterly air will help to erode some of the precipitation as well as advect colder air into that part of the cwa. Once the precipitation overcomes the drier air, we'll probably see some light freezing rain develop north of a Ludington to Mt Pleasant line after midnight. The short duration of freezing precipitation may negate the need for a headline, but not out of the question that we may need one at some point; the short range models have deceased the ice accums somewhat.
The precipitation will end Saturday morning as the low continues moving east away from the cwa.
Highs today will range from the upper 40s near US-10 to mid 50s near I-94. A tighter temperature gradient will exist Saturday with highs in the lower 40s north to upper 50s south.
- Low Chance of Precipitation Sunday, Better Monday-Wednesday
The long term portion of the forecast begins with surface ridging within a zonal upper-level pattern across the central Great Lakes. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as moisture arrives, highest near I94, with weak isentropic ascent ongoing.
More widespread showers are expected Monday into Tuesday as the zonal flow pattern is replaced by a an upper-level trough with leading shortwaves. This results in a deep surface low tracking through the region, with some uncertainties in track remaining at present. However there is general agreement that West Michigan remains placed in the warm sector of the system. Warm air advection looks to bring highs in the 50s Sunday through Tuesday before highs in the 40s are expected behind the system. This system has the potential to be a ample rain producer. PWATS early next week climb into above the NAEFS 90th percentile in the 0.75-1 inch range.
Current NBM probabilities for rainfall over 1 inch from Sunday- Tuesday are in the 30-50 percent range, highest across the southern CWA Thunder chances are low given instability primarily remaining south of the area.
Wrap-around precipitation behind the surface low then brings the chance of rain and snow showers Wednesday as the upper-level trough and associated thermal trough tracks overhead. Given spread in surface temperatures in the vicinity of freezing (given this is days in the future) certainty in rain versus snow is low at present. This precipitation ends later Wednesday into Thursday as the upper-level trough pulls away with surface ridging moving into the Central Great Lakes.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 656 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
High confidence in VFR through 06z Saturday as generally SKC today sees ceilings falling tonight as a complex of showers approaches.
Have adjusted shower start times later compared to 06z TAFs to better account for the low level dry air that will be in place. After that, widespread MVFR conditions with localized pockets of IFR possible are expected due to rain showers and mist. Cannot rule out thunder mainly at the I94 terminals, but confidence is too low this far out to include thunder in the TAFs. Westerly winds of 5-10 knots expected today becoming easterly at 2-5 knots tonight.
MARINE
Issued at 316 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
West winds today will become offshore this evening as low pressure moves closer to the region. Once the low moves east Saturday afternoon, winds will become northwesterly and gusty. It's possible a Small Craft Advisory may be needed then, but less than certain at this point.
A stronger system looks like it will develop early next week and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed Monday night through Wednesday.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI | 1 mi | 57 min | ENE 1.9G | 28°F | 23°F | |||
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI | 8 mi | 47 min | ENE 5.1G | 31°F | 30.07 | |||
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI | 21 mi | 47 min | ESE 1G | 29°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KLDM MASON COUNTY,MI | 2 sm | 11 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 25°F | 23°F | 93% | 30.05 | |
KMBL MANISTEE COBLACKER,MI | 24 sm | 30 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 18°F | 18°F | 100% | 30.05 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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