Tuesday, October22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 6:53PM Tuesday October 22, 2019 7:31 PM EDT (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:01AMMoonset 3:16PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Edt Tue Oct 22 2019
.gale warning in effect through Wednesday morning...
Through early evening..Southwest gales to 35 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Tonight..West gales to 35 knots after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots backing southwest 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering west late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201910230800;;113510 FZUS53 KGRR 222006 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-230800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 222239
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
639 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 328 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
-high wave action with beach and bluff erosion continues into
early Wednesday
-gusty winds may cause scattered power outages along lakeshore
-light rain possible late Wednesday into early Thursday
-Saturday night into Sunday morning is looking wetter

Discussion (this evening through next Tuesday)
issued at 328 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
the low centered near lake superior will move toward hudson bay
over the next 24 hours but lakeshore flooding impacts will
continue into Wednesday morning unfortunately given an extended
period of gale force wind gusts along the coast. Several reports
of 45 to 55 mph wind gusts have been observed as well as widely
scattered power outages.

What we have observed from our survey team today is some of
the same areas that received beach erosion and bluff collapse
last week are experiencing additional impacts with 5-10 ft or
more of erosion on top of last week's losses. The hardest hit
areas are expected to be near and north of port sheldon where
erosion will continue along with flooding of river mouths and
low lying parking lots, roads, and potentially some homes as
well. The threat winds down early Wednesday morning.

Continued over-lake instability, deep cyclonic flow and
abundant low level moisture will help fuel bands of rain
showers across the region, though any given location will
not be raining continuously. Given the propagation speeds
of these showers, even locations well inland will get
hit-and-miss precipitation through tonight. This activity
winds down quite a bit Wednesday. However, showers are
possible Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as
we get brushed by a 40 kt LLJ centered from in to oh and
are impacted by weak surface troughing.

I believe rain chances are looking more likely late Saturday
into early Sunday based on an ensemble analysis. The
deterministic ECMWF and gem have already been showing a
gulf-based low ejecting north toward michigan for multiple
runs but the GFS has not. The ecm members tell the real story
though with most of the 51 members showing this system impacting
our area. The gfs, in all likelihood, will prove too far east
with the handling of this system (it takes the low up the east
coast). Our current pops are 30% given our blended model solution
for the weekend but we will likely be trending higher with time if
the ensemble guidance continues to suggest impacts.

Additional impactful weather is possible by the middle of next
week as we round out october, but the range of solutions is large.

Temperatures may be cold enough for wintry precipitation as we
get closer to halloween, but details are unclear at this point.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 639 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
our storm is slowly lifting out to the north northeast with time.

This slowly is lifting southwest michigan out of the storms
circulation with time. At 22z the south edge of the MVFR CIGS is
near i-94. Clear skies are south of pia to laf. This area if
clearing will continue to lift north with time overnight. I would
think by 14z most if not all of our TAF sites will see either
clear skies or at least mostly clear skies. Ok, this is michigan
and winds will be out of the west southwest, which will be off
lake michigan, but there is enough subsidence assoicated with the
low level wind flow becoming anticyclonic that I believe the sky
will indeed clear.

There is another system lifting northeast that may bring showers
back to the area Wednesday evening, but that is not a sure thing
so I brought back mid clouds for now and maybe later tafs will
feature showers around 00z Thursday.

With the system lifting out to the north and northeast winds will
slowly decrease. Inland TAF sites will see winds under 15 knots
by after 06z.

Marine
Issued at 328 pm edt Tue oct 22 2019
the gale warning and lakeshore flood warning still look to be in
good shape. Widespread gales have been observed and we are seeing
continued erosion of dunes and the risk for bluff collapses given
a long duration gale event with waves approaching or exceeding 10
feet in places. The worst has likely either occurred or is
currently occurring as of this writing. But the gradual eating
away of dunes will be a real problem for coastal properties into
early Wednesday. Wave action does subside into the 4 to 6 foot
range Wednesday afternoon, which is still high, but shouldn't
cause too much impact to the dunes and bluffs.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood warning until 8 am edt Wednesday for miz037-043-
050-056-064-071.

Lm... Gale warning until 8 am edt Wednesday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Hoving
discussion... Hoving
aviation... Wdm
marine... Hoving


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi49 min WSW 9.9 G 19 48°F 40°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi28 min SW 32 G 35 48°F 1001 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi51 min SW 28 G 36 48°F 999.7 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi36 minWSW 19 G 2510.00 miOvercast and Breezy47°F39°F76%1000.7 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi35 minWSW 16 G 268.00 miOvercast47°F39°F77%999.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E7E5E9E8E8E12
G16
SE14
G20
E12
G19
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G18
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G27
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2 days agoSE4SE4SE4SE5E4CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW4CalmW4NW4NW4CalmW4W6W5W4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.