Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 5:11PM Saturday December 14, 2019 8:58 PM EST (01:58 UTC) Moonrise 7:43PMMoonset 10:28AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Through early evening..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light freezing drizzle, snow showers and drizzle. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely and a chance of light freezing drizzle. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots backing west 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the day.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201912150900;;787446 FZUS53 KGRR 142105 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-150900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 150014 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 714 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 210 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

- Freezing drizzle this evening, changing to snow showers tonight

- Low pressure passes by to the south Monday into Monday night

- Lake effect snow showers and colder for Tuesday into Wednesday

- Below normal precipitation expected through the period

UPDATE. Issued at 557 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Bottom line: we are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory for the entire CWA (all 23 counties) through 100am.

We have received reports of freezing drizzle resulting in a glaze of ice in places like Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo and Montcalm Counties. A few accidents have been reported across West Central Lower Michigan as well. The KGRR WSR-88D has the familiar light haze look to it indicative of freezing drizzle. Also of note, is that this hazy look to the radar (freezing drizzle) is occuring upstream on radars in Wisconsin. Light mist is being reported across Southern Wisconsin with temperatures in the 20s.

Lift is seen in the moist layer on BUFKIT overviews without saturation of the DGZ to flip the precipitation over to snow. The unsaturated/lift in the moist layer look continues through roughly 100am across the entire area. Cold air advection should push all area temperatures into the 20s this evening resulting in icy roads expanding as we head through the evening.

We will reevaluate the Winter Weather Advisory later this evening and decide whether we need to keep it through the night towards Lake Michigan for developing snow showers on top of an icy layer below.

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 210 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

The main challenges in the forecast period deal with the risk for any winter impacts

Late this afternoon and evening there is a potential for some sprinkles. Initially low level temperatures will be above freezing but as we go through the evening the temperatures will be slowly falling. Later this evening and more so closer to midnight some better lift arrives which deepens up the moisture to the DGZ. Thus a transition to frozen precipitation is forecasted to occur. So far . any precipitation has been slow to get going. Overall we do not expected much out of this system . mostly a few hundredths. Thus any impacts should be limited and expected to occur when few vehicles will be on the road.

Trends in the models support the next storm system staying south of the region Monday into Monday night. The right entrance region of the upper level jet stays down over the OH Valley. This is where the deeper lift is likely remain. Based on that we will lower the snow amounts and POPs for this event. We will continue to monitor it as it still could change course somewhat.

Westerly winds become northwest later Tuesday into Tuesday night and Wednesday as an arctic airmass filters in. Conditions will become increasingly favorable for lake effect snow showers to develop . especially with the DGZ moistening up. Thus There could be some localized impacts during this period. Very low inversion heights may limit the accumulating snow somewhat.

Deeper warm air advection sets up Thursday into Friday. We will feature a warming trend in the forecast . with above normal values expected.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 714 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

Some freezing drizzle will continue off and on through the evening hours, before switching over to snow showers overnight. Snow should becoming the dominant precipitation type after 06z. Ceilings currently vary between IFR and MVFR, but the trend will be up overnight to MVFR in all areas. Snow showers overnight will be most prevalent towards Lake Michigan including KMKG, KGRR and KAZO.

Snow showers will wind down through the morning hours of Sunday with ceilings lifting to VFR in the afternoon. So, after fairly poor conditions this evening, (FZDZ, some snow showers increasing and IFR) aviation weather will improve into Sunday.

Winds will be westerly the next 24 hours, with the strongest winds occurring this evening at 10-20 knots.

MARINE. Issued at 210 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

The combination of a tightening pressure gradient and colder air moving in will support building waves for the rest of today and more so tonight. An area of high pressure moves in for Sunday. This will weaken the pressure gradient up and support decreasing winds. The next storm system tracks up the OH Valley Mon into Mon Night. This will support an easterly component to the wind here in MI. For our nearshore waters of Lake MI the waves will be relatively low then. Building waves are forecasted for Tuesday as the winds back around to the north behind the departing storms.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for MIZ037>040- 043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

LM . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.



UPDATE . Duke SYNOPSIS . MJS DISCUSSION . MJS AVIATION . Duke MARINE . MJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi65 min WNW 8.9 G 15 29°F 25°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi79 min WNW 15 G 18 30°F 1006.4 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi79 min W 15 G 18 32°F 1006.4 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi63 minNW 9 G 145.00 miFog/Mist30°F26°F88%1005.8 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi63 minW 148.00 miLight Snow31°F30°F96%1005.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW3NW4NW5NW3NW6NW6W6NW7NW7NW7NW7NW8
1 day agoSW12
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SW9SW7SW5SW6CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmN4Calm
2 days agoW4W4W3SW7S3CalmSE5SE3SE4SE7SE9SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.