Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 8:42PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:50 AM EDT (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 10:21PMMoonset 10:41AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 1105 Am Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves less than 1 foot.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering west 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots backing north late in the day. Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
LMZ849 Expires:201908202100;;520037 FZUS53 KGRR 201506 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1105 AM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-202100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 201124
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
724 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
latest update...

discussion aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 300 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
- chance of storms today through Wednesday
- dry weather Wednesday night through the weekend into next week
- cooler temps late in the week into the weekend

Update
Issued at 542 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
the pops were updated this morning to account for the storms
moving onshore in allegan county. They will likely continue
east... Staying between i96 and i94. These storms were forming
along and elevated warm front that does not move much over the
next few hours.

Discussion (today through Thursday)
issued at 300 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
the primary fcst challenge is to assess convective potential for
today through Wednesday.

A consensus of latest cams and href members suggests that an mcs
will develop over ia early this morning and become well
organized forward propagating as it moves ese across il later
this morning and in later this aftn. So most of the organized
convection will stay south to SW of our fcst area later today.

However it is noted that a consensus of latest href members
suggests that fairly strong instability will develop over our
southern fcst area late this morning and aftn (ensemble mean sb
cape values reaching 2-3k j kg). Fortunately deep layer shear
later today is rather weak and there is a lack of a stronger
forcing mechanism for convective initiation to occur.

Nevertheless isolated strong to marginally severe storms seem
possible given strong instability and rather dry air aloft and
steep mid level lapse rates. Some guidance fcst soundings suggest
dcape values may reach around 1k j kg this aftn too so isolated
damaging wind gusts also seem possible in addition to hail. A
shortwave moving in from the NW and possibly an MCV will be the
forcing mechanisms for sct convective development later today.

Convective potential will increase if an MCV over ia moves further
north than currently expected.

Just a smaller chance for showers and storms will linger tonight.

Then on Wednesday some stronger convection could potentially
develop over our SE fcst along and just ahead of the cold front.

The latest ECMWF is concerning as it suggests sb CAPE values could
reach around 3k j kg toward kjxn late Wed am early Wed aftn along
and just ahead of the cold front. Dry wx is fcst Wednesday night
through the weekend into early next week.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Wednesday morning)
issued at 658 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
the scattered thunderstorms this morning should continue to
weaken as they move inland. Still local ifr conditions will
be possible for a few more hours. A few additional thunderstorms
may develop as well for this afternoon with the relatively best
chance for a storm at our southern terminals from mid afternoon to
early Tuesday evening. Storms and heavier showers could cause
brief reductions to MVFR ifr conditions. There could be an ifr fog
event later tonight as the low level moisture values will be
elevated. I put some decreasing conditions in the tafs then.

Marine
Issued at 300 am edt Tue aug 20 2019
rather minimal wind speeds and wave heights are fcst today through
tonight. Winds will veer to the SW and increase a bit to around
10 to 15 kts this aftn.

Winds will veer to the NW and increase to around 15 to 25 kts
Wednesday after cold frontal passage and cause wave heights to
build to around 3 to 5 feet. A small craft advisory could be
needed for Wed aftn eve.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Mjs
synopsis... Laurens
discussion... Laurens
aviation... Laurens


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi56 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 74°F 61°F
45024 6 mi40 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 70°F1 ft1017.2 hPa64°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi70 min ESE 6 G 7 75°F 1016.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi70 min ESE 4.1 G 6 76°F 1017.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi55 minSE 410.00 miFair74°F61°F65%1016.6 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi54 minN 010.00 miFair75°F63°F66%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5CalmSW7W5SW7W7SW6CalmCalmCalmCalm--------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E3E3
1 day agoSE11S8SW8SW10SW14
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W7W3SW5SW6W6--W3NW3--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3Calm
2 days agoW8W6W7SW5SW5NW3SW5W3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5S4S6SW10
G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.