Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 6:23PM Thursday February 20, 2020 8:53 PM EST (01:53 UTC) Moonrise 6:13AMMoonset 3:24PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Est Thu Feb 20 2020
.gale warning in effect from Friday afternoon through late Friday night...
Through early evening..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 8 to 12 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202002210900;;842010 FZUS53 KGRR 202106 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-210900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 202343 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 643 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

- Cold tonight

- Dry through the weekend

- Rain/snow next week

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Thursday) Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

-- Cold tonight --

Skies will clear tonight. Good radiational conditions are expected to help temperatures fall to the single digits tonight. No doubt, some of the colder locations across the northern cwa will fall below 0.

-- Dry through the weekend --

ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement depicting a ridge covering the much of the central US. This ridge will take a few days to move east. That means several days of dry weather for southwest Lower MI. Temperatures will be on the increase too as the ridge moves east and south flow develops. Look for highs around 40 Saturday and and in the 40s Sunday.

-- Rain/snow next week --

Low pressure will develop in the lee of the Rockies Sunday in response to a short wave. ECMWF and GFS begin to diverge on the details of this system. Both show the sfc low making a run at the Great Lakes, but the euro is farther south than the gfs and so produces mostly snow. The gfs on the other hand is a bit stronger, wetter, and farther north and would produce mostly rain. It seems conceivable the high to the north will feed some cooler air into the cwa and so the gfs may be a bit overdone on the warming . at least north of I-96. So we have mostly snow in the grids north and mixed rain/snow south at the start. We also have a changeover to rain over the southern cwa Monday afternoon before going back to snow Monday night.

Another shortwave follows on both models Tuesday night, but the euro doesn't do much with it, but the gfs produces snow. We're leaning toward the gfs during this period and have some snow in the grids. It's still too early to pin down potential accumulations.

Both the gfs and euro strengthen that wave when it gets to the East Coast, but by then it's likely to be too far east to give us any precipitation. But it may still pull down some colder air.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 639 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

Some lingering lake effect clouds near KMKG will keep the conditions MVFR for another hour or so . but those clouds are expected to diminish with time. Otherwise Southwest Lower MI is forecasted to see generally clear skies. The wind on Friday will start to increase from the southwest . especially closer to the lakeshore. Gusts over 20 knots should arrive by the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 320 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

A Gale Warning is in effect Friday afternoon through Friday evening. Low pressure moving across James Bay will combine with the ridge to the south to tighten the pressure gradient Friday which will increase the wind. West to southwest gales to 35 knots are expected to produce waves 6 to 10 feet before both wind and waves subside Saturday.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Gale Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . 04 DISCUSSION . 04 AVIATION . MJS MARINE . 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi59 min W 11 G 15 19°F 7°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi73 min W 14 G 19 19°F 1036.2 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi73 min SW 14 G 17 21°F 1036.2 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NW4
G9
NW5
G11
NW3
G8
N6
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G10
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NW4
G8
N3
G7
NW4
G7
N3
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N5
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G11
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G12
NW4
G9
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G11
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G13
1 day
ago
W13
G21
W12
G17
NW12
G20
NW7
G15
NW8
G16
NW4
G13
NW5
G8
NW3
G11
NW7
G11
NW4
G13
NW6
G10
NW4
G8
W8
G12
W8
G12
W9
G12
W8
G12
W9
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G12
W8
G12
W7
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W7
G11
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G10
2 days
ago
E11
G16
E10
G17
E12
G16
SE7
G15
E9
G15
SE7
G16
SE7
G11
S5
G9
S13
G17
W17
G22
W14
G20
W12
G17
W14
G20
NW10
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NW11
G20
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G18
W12
G18
W11
G17
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G15
W9
G13
W8
G11
W11
G16
W10
G15
W10
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi58 minW 610.00 miFair18°F8°F67%1035.9 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair9°F3°F77%1037 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N5NW6NW4----N6N8
G14
NW4NW4NW3N4N6N7N8N9NW4NW7NW6NW8W4W5W8W5
1 day agoNW12
G21
NW13
G17
NW13
G20
NW11
G20
N14
G20
N8NW7NW6NW5NW6NW6NW4NW6NW9NW7
G14
W11
G16
W9
G15
NW8
G15
W6
G16
NW7NW8NW6NW5NW6
2 days agoE12E11
G19
SE12
G17
SE14
G20
SE7SE10SE5S5W13
G21
W9
G15
W11
G20
--NW13
G23
W11
G17
NW11
G15
NW12
G21
NW11
G18
NW11
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NW7NW11
G15
W7W7W8
G14
W12
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.