Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI

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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 152320 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 620 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

- Storm system passes by to the south on Monday

- Lake effect snow showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday

- Cold for mid week

- Not as cold next weekend

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The main challenges in the period deal with timing and amount of any impacts. To start there is an area of light snow in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This area of snow was tracking east . in our direction. Models show the lift weakening with this feature as it moves into Southern Lower Michigan late tonight into Monday morning. This will support a diminishing trend the light snow through the night into Monday morning. Still a small risk for a period of flurries or perhaps light snow exists for Southern Lower Michigan. Bufkit overviews do show a dry layer from 2000 to roughly 5000 ft. This likely is not enough to prevent some of the snow from reaching the ground. We will feature low POPs for measurable precipitation after midnight tonight for the Interstate 94 corridor.

Next up will be the lake effect snow later Tuesday into Wednesday. Deeper cyclonic flow and the arrival of an arctic airmass will support some impacts for parts of the region. Right now the models are showing the best lift arriving Tuesday evening after 00z as a 700 mb wave drops in from the northwest. This is when we will feature the highest POPs With a Lake Superior connection. the bands in northwest parts of our CWA will likely produce the most impacts . which could linger into Wednesday morning. Guidance shows a low level ridge building in for Wednesday afternoon and evening which should support decreasing and less organized snow shower activity. It is worth noting that the DGZ lowers close to the ground . under the cloud bases late Tuesday night into Wednesday which would likely alter the accumulation rate.

Deeper southwest flow develops for late in the week and through the weekend which will support a moderating trend to the temperatures.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Broken MVFR clouds continue at many TAF sites as of this writing partly due to a lack of any real advection in the lowest few thousand feet. As such, opted to maintain MVFR clouds at many of the TAF sites through much of the TAF period with occasional breaks to VFR (OVC100 or above). Virga is expected at all TAF sites from midnight through about 18Z today though a few flurries can't be ruled out at AZO/BTL/JXN. Winds will remain light and variable through the entire TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

With surface high pressure forecasted to ridge into the region tonight into Monday . the winds and waves are forecasted to remain relatively low. That will change for Tuesday. The wind is forecasted to strengthen out of the northwest as an arctic airmass spreads in through Wednesday Thus. hazardous small craft conditions are likely to redevelop. Freezing spray may be possible as well. High pressure ridges in for later Wednesday into Thursday. At this time it looks like conditions will improve somewhat then.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJS DISCUSSION . MJS AVIATION . Borchardt MARINE . MJS

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	1 mi	65 min	WSW 4.1 G 8.9	26°F				16°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	8 mi	109 min	SW 8.9 G 13	25°F			1019.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	21 mi	49 min	S 1.9 G 7	26°F			1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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W9 G15

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W10 G15

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NW7 G15

NW6 G12

NW9 G16

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N6 G11

NW5 G12

NW5 G10

NW5 G15

NW6 G9

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SW17 G28

SW11 G15

SW10 G14

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SW16 G20

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SW11 G15

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SW7 G14

SW6 G11

SW4 G7

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W2

W7 G10

NW2 G5

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI	2 mi	33 min	SW 3	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	24°F	15°F	68%	1019.3 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	24 mi	33 min	S 3	10.00 mi	Overcast	24°F	16°F	71%	1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)

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NW8

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SW15 G26

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI

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