Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI

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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 301143 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 643 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

- Light snow at times for the southeast through Tuesday

- Light lake effect for Little and Big Sable Points through Tuesday

- Extended dry and mild period from late Tuesday into next weekend

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

-- Light snow at times for the southeast through Tue --

We continue to expect that we will see limited impacts from the system that will be tracking to our east through Tuesday. The I-69 corridor and areas east will see most of the impacts, which will likely end up being some light accumulations of snow and some slick roads tonight as temps drop below freezing.

We are seeing the first round of precipitation coming in right now, as mainly some light rain. This is on the far NW periphery of the low coming up well east of the area from the SE U S. The precipitation is expected to change over to some light snow soon as the lowest levels wet bulb down some, and with colder air filtering in over the area dropping freezing levels down to almost the surface.

The period of best precipitation rates will be through early this afternoon. It will be somewhat tough to accumulate the snow well as sfc temperatures are expected to remain above freezing during the daylight hours. It will take some of the better bursts of snow to be able to accumulate at all. The bigger concern might be if roads remain wet this afternoon, they would likely freeze up this evening as temps will drop below freezing after dark. It is very possible though that the snow ends early enough, and surfaces dry before temps drop below freezing.

Some additional light snow will be possible later tonight and Tue morning for the I-69 corridor and areas east again. This waves come as the upper low takes shape, and the fgen with the deformation zone develops overhead. This snow would have a better chance of sticking with colder temperatures in place, and the lack of daylight. Amounts would be generally less than an inch, but could be enough to grease up the roads a little.

-- Light lake effect for Little and Big Sable Pts through Tue --

While the light snow is ongoing across the SE, a band of lake effect will be taking place over Lake Michigan. The colder temps coming in will be sufficient for lake effect as delta t's will be in the mid teens C as 850 mb temps are around -10C. This lake effect will miss most of our lakeshore with the flow being from the NNE. The only locations that look to get clipped by the N-S bands will be Little and Big Sable Points.

The snow showers there do not look to be anything too outrageous, with an inch or two possible into Tuesday. The limiting factors look to be a lack of strong upper feature that directly impacts that area, and limited low level convergence to focus the bands right there.

-- Extended dry and mild period from late Tue into next weekend

We will see all precipitation chances diminish through the course of Tuesday. The upper low developing over the region is expected to get kicked east by 00z Wed. This occurs as strong energy dives over the High Plains, and pushes our low out.

We will then end up in a fairly quiet long wave pattern that will persist into next weekend. The pattern will be split, with one trough/low to our NE, and the other well to our SW. We will end up under the region of ridging in between, with average to slightly above average temps. In addition, there is a decent chance we see a fair amount of sunshine by early December standards.

The next chance we could see some sensible weather would be somewhere around next Sunday. The models are showing a trough trying to dive south over the Northern Great Lakes that would bring a chance of precipitation and some cooler weather. That is still a ways out, and chances are things will change some.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 643 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

We are looking at a couple of areas of a couple periods of snow through 12z Tue. The most impactful snow is occurring over toward KLAN and KJXN this morning. Light snow on the far western portion of the system to our east extends from near a KBTL to KLAN line. Solid MVFR is in place there, with some areas of IFR in the more solid snow band. This will continue off and on into the early afternoon hours.

The other snow in the form of snow showers is mainly offshore, with a few snow showers sneaking inland a little. KMKG has had a couple of these snow showers, with mainly MVFR conditions expected. All other areas will see the MVFR cloud cover with ceilings around 2500 ft or so. Wind gusts already have been observed around 20 knots. Winds will increase a little with the heating of the day, and cold air coming in.

The clouds will persist tonight, with winds falling off slightly later in the evening. Another round of light snow is likely toward KLAN and KJXN. We do not expect that to be as impactful as this morning.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

We will be holding with our Gale Warning as is for the time being. There is some potential we may need to extend, or issue a new Gale for late tonight and Tuesday with a secondary surge of wind. Winds are currently in the process of coming up this morning. Gales are not quite being realized yet at the limited buoy observations, although the mid-lake buoy has waves around 8 ft. We believe that the peak of the winds today will be late this morning and early this afternoon. The worst wind and waves will stay just offshore with nearly a due north flow expected.

We will not be issuing any lakeshore flood headlines at this time for this event. As mentioned before about the northerly flow, the area that would be most impacted is north of Big Sable Point, and south of Van Buren county. North of Big Sable Point is mainly just uninhabited dunes, and the southern area is just out of our area.

Winds will come up again on Tuesday, and we may end up extending the headline to cover this at some point.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . NJJ DISCUSSION . NJJ AVIATION . NJJ MARINE . NJJ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	1 mi	47 min	N 8.9 G 16	33°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	8 mi	67 min	N 24 G 33	33°F			1014.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	21 mi	67 min	N 24 G 31	35°F			1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI	2 mi	52 min	N 11 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	26°F	76%	1013.2 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	24 mi	51 min	N 12 G 20	10.00 mi	Overcast	33°F	26°F	75%	1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI

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