Monday, November30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:55AMSunset 5:12PM Monday November 30, 2020 12:46 PM EST (17:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 8:09AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Am Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Early this morning..North gales to 35 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Today..North gales to 35 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Tonight..North gales to 35 knots after midnight. Cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet.
Tuesday..North winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny with a slight chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 7 to 11 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds to 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet late in the day.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:202011302100;;615299 FZUS53 KGRR 300905 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-302100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 301143 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 643 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

- Light snow at times for the southeast through Tuesday

- Light lake effect for Little and Big Sable Points through Tuesday

- Extended dry and mild period from late Tuesday into next weekend

DISCUSSION. (Today through next Sunday) Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

-- Light snow at times for the southeast through Tue --

We continue to expect that we will see limited impacts from the system that will be tracking to our east through Tuesday. The I-69 corridor and areas east will see most of the impacts, which will likely end up being some light accumulations of snow and some slick roads tonight as temps drop below freezing.

We are seeing the first round of precipitation coming in right now, as mainly some light rain. This is on the far NW periphery of the low coming up well east of the area from the SE U S. The precipitation is expected to change over to some light snow soon as the lowest levels wet bulb down some, and with colder air filtering in over the area dropping freezing levels down to almost the surface.

The period of best precipitation rates will be through early this afternoon. It will be somewhat tough to accumulate the snow well as sfc temperatures are expected to remain above freezing during the daylight hours. It will take some of the better bursts of snow to be able to accumulate at all. The bigger concern might be if roads remain wet this afternoon, they would likely freeze up this evening as temps will drop below freezing after dark. It is very possible though that the snow ends early enough, and surfaces dry before temps drop below freezing.

Some additional light snow will be possible later tonight and Tue morning for the I-69 corridor and areas east again. This waves come as the upper low takes shape, and the fgen with the deformation zone develops overhead. This snow would have a better chance of sticking with colder temperatures in place, and the lack of daylight. Amounts would be generally less than an inch, but could be enough to grease up the roads a little.

-- Light lake effect for Little and Big Sable Pts through Tue --

While the light snow is ongoing across the SE, a band of lake effect will be taking place over Lake Michigan. The colder temps coming in will be sufficient for lake effect as delta t's will be in the mid teens C as 850 mb temps are around -10C. This lake effect will miss most of our lakeshore with the flow being from the NNE. The only locations that look to get clipped by the N-S bands will be Little and Big Sable Points.

The snow showers there do not look to be anything too outrageous, with an inch or two possible into Tuesday. The limiting factors look to be a lack of strong upper feature that directly impacts that area, and limited low level convergence to focus the bands right there.

-- Extended dry and mild period from late Tue into next weekend

We will see all precipitation chances diminish through the course of Tuesday. The upper low developing over the region is expected to get kicked east by 00z Wed. This occurs as strong energy dives over the High Plains, and pushes our low out.

We will then end up in a fairly quiet long wave pattern that will persist into next weekend. The pattern will be split, with one trough/low to our NE, and the other well to our SW. We will end up under the region of ridging in between, with average to slightly above average temps. In addition, there is a decent chance we see a fair amount of sunshine by early December standards.

The next chance we could see some sensible weather would be somewhere around next Sunday. The models are showing a trough trying to dive south over the Northern Great Lakes that would bring a chance of precipitation and some cooler weather. That is still a ways out, and chances are things will change some.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 643 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

We are looking at a couple of areas of a couple periods of snow through 12z Tue. The most impactful snow is occurring over toward KLAN and KJXN this morning. Light snow on the far western portion of the system to our east extends from near a KBTL to KLAN line. Solid MVFR is in place there, with some areas of IFR in the more solid snow band. This will continue off and on into the early afternoon hours.

The other snow in the form of snow showers is mainly offshore, with a few snow showers sneaking inland a little. KMKG has had a couple of these snow showers, with mainly MVFR conditions expected. All other areas will see the MVFR cloud cover with ceilings around 2500 ft or so. Wind gusts already have been observed around 20 knots. Winds will increase a little with the heating of the day, and cold air coming in.

The clouds will persist tonight, with winds falling off slightly later in the evening. Another round of light snow is likely toward KLAN and KJXN. We do not expect that to be as impactful as this morning.

MARINE. Issued at 328 AM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

We will be holding with our Gale Warning as is for the time being. There is some potential we may need to extend, or issue a new Gale for late tonight and Tuesday with a secondary surge of wind. Winds are currently in the process of coming up this morning. Gales are not quite being realized yet at the limited buoy observations, although the mid-lake buoy has waves around 8 ft. We believe that the peak of the winds today will be late this morning and early this afternoon. The worst wind and waves will stay just offshore with nearly a due north flow expected.

We will not be issuing any lakeshore flood headlines at this time for this event. As mentioned before about the northerly flow, the area that would be most impacted is north of Big Sable Point, and south of Van Buren county. North of Big Sable Point is mainly just uninhabited dunes, and the southern area is just out of our area.

Winds will come up again on Tuesday, and we may end up extending the headline to cover this at some point.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.



SYNOPSIS . NJJ DISCUSSION . NJJ AVIATION . NJJ MARINE . NJJ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi47 min N 8.9 G 16 33°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi67 min N 24 G 33 33°F 1014.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi67 min N 24 G 31 35°F 1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi52 minN 11 G 2010.00 miOvercast33°F26°F76%1013.2 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi51 minN 12 G 2010.00 miOvercast33°F26°F75%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10SW9W8NW7NW6NW7
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1 day agoSW13
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SW9SW9S7SW8SW7SW7SW7SW7SW7SW9SW11SW12
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2 days agoW7W7W6W4W5NW6NW4
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NW4NW4NW4NW6NW4NW6W4W4W7W7SW8SW11
G17
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G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.