Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ludington, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 5:11PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:29 PM EST (00:29 UTC) Moonrise 8:52PMMoonset 11:17AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ849 Pentwater To Manistee Mi- 405 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Through early evening..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ849 Expires:201912160900;;839187 FZUS53 KGRR 152106 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ849-160900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ludington, MI
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location: 43.96, -86.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 152320 AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 620 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

LATEST UPDATE . Aviation

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

- Storm system passes by to the south on Monday

- Lake effect snow showers late Tuesday into early Wednesday

- Cold for mid week

- Not as cold next weekend

DISCUSSION. (This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

The main challenges in the period deal with timing and amount of any impacts. To start there is an area of light snow in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa. This area of snow was tracking east . in our direction. Models show the lift weakening with this feature as it moves into Southern Lower Michigan late tonight into Monday morning. This will support a diminishing trend the light snow through the night into Monday morning. Still a small risk for a period of flurries or perhaps light snow exists for Southern Lower Michigan. Bufkit overviews do show a dry layer from 2000 to roughly 5000 ft. This likely is not enough to prevent some of the snow from reaching the ground. We will feature low POPs for measurable precipitation after midnight tonight for the Interstate 94 corridor.

Next up will be the lake effect snow later Tuesday into Wednesday. Deeper cyclonic flow and the arrival of an arctic airmass will support some impacts for parts of the region. Right now the models are showing the best lift arriving Tuesday evening after 00z as a 700 mb wave drops in from the northwest. This is when we will feature the highest POPs With a Lake Superior connection. the bands in northwest parts of our CWA will likely produce the most impacts . which could linger into Wednesday morning. Guidance shows a low level ridge building in for Wednesday afternoon and evening which should support decreasing and less organized snow shower activity. It is worth noting that the DGZ lowers close to the ground . under the cloud bases late Tuesday night into Wednesday which would likely alter the accumulation rate.

Deeper southwest flow develops for late in the week and through the weekend which will support a moderating trend to the temperatures.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 620 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

Broken MVFR clouds continue at many TAF sites as of this writing partly due to a lack of any real advection in the lowest few thousand feet. As such, opted to maintain MVFR clouds at many of the TAF sites through much of the TAF period with occasional breaks to VFR (OVC100 or above). Virga is expected at all TAF sites from midnight through about 18Z today though a few flurries can't be ruled out at AZO/BTL/JXN. Winds will remain light and variable through the entire TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 235 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

With surface high pressure forecasted to ridge into the region tonight into Monday . the winds and waves are forecasted to remain relatively low. That will change for Tuesday. The wind is forecasted to strengthen out of the northwest as an arctic airmass spreads in through Wednesday Thus. hazardous small craft conditions are likely to redevelop. Freezing spray may be possible as well. High pressure ridges in for later Wednesday into Thursday. At this time it looks like conditions will improve somewhat then.

GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . None. LM . None.

SYNOPSIS . MJS DISCUSSION . MJS AVIATION . Borchardt MARINE . MJS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 1 mi65 min WSW 4.1 G 8.9 26°F 16°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 8 mi109 min SW 8.9 G 13 25°F 1019.6 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 21 mi49 min S 1.9 G 7 26°F 1020.3 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ludington, Mason County Airport, MI2 mi33 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F15°F68%1019.3 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi33 minS 310.00 miOvercast24°F16°F71%1020.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KLDM

Wind History from LDM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW8
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NW8NW6NW7NW7NW8NW4NW6W6W7W6SW5W3SW7Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmNW3NW4NW5NW3NW6NW6W6NW7NW7NW7NW7
2 days agoSW15
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SW9SW7SW5SW6CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3CalmN4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.