Tuesday, October15, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Thomaston, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:57PM Tuesday October 15, 2019 7:29 AM EDT (11:29 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 8:20AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 331 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
.gale watch in effect from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming E 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft after midnight. Rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..E winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Scattered showers.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Fri night..NW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ100 331 Am Edt Tue Oct 15 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure will build in with offshore winds today, with the high center shifting offshore by tonight. Low pressure moving up the east coast will strengthen rapidly as it reaches the gulf of maine Wednesday night with gales looking increasingly more likely for a period Thursday. High pressure builds in from the west for the rest of the week. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thomaston, ME
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location: 43.97, -69.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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Fxus61 kgyx 151121
afdgyx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gray me
721 am edt Tue oct 15 2019

Synopsis
Expect a dry and mostly sunny day today as high pressure builds
in behind last night's cold front. Temperatures will warm into
the 50s to low 60s. It will be a cold night tonight with valley
locations dropping below freezing. High pressure moves east on
Wednesday with increasing clouds through the day. By Wednesday
night rain will begin moving into the area as a nor'easter moves
up the east coast. Rain could be heavy at times through early
Thursday along with gusty onshore winds near the coast. As the
storm moves away on Thursday expect gusty west winds across the
entire area. Cool high pressure builds in for the weekend.

Near term today
715am update...

made a few adjustments to the hourly temperature forecast based
on early morning observations. Otherwise no significant changes
were needed.

Original discussion...

should see a mostly sunny sky today with a dry northwest flow
scouring out much of the moisture. Temperatures will warm into
the 50s to low 60s, with the warmest temperatures in the south
and along the coast as the northwest winds downslope and aid in
mixing the low level air mass.

Short term tonight and Wednesday
High pressure crosses the area tonight. With a clear sky
expected, this should be a rather excellent radiational cooling
night. The high pressure axis begins the night over the
connecticut river valley, so we should see the low level
inversion easily able to set up despite the shifting of the high
axis eastward through the night. By morning the axis of the
high will be over eastern areas, thus allowing the entire area
to set up a strong low level inversion. Blended model guidance
does not tend to handle these nights very well as the sharpness
of this low level inversion is difficult to model. MOS does much
better, and the forecast was based off the mav and met MOS for
the region. Low level dewpoints just below freezing suggest that
the cool valley locations prone to cold air drainage will fall
below freezing, with the coldest temperatures in the mid to
upper 20s. Hilltops and urban areas will stay in the mid to
upper 30s.

A southeast flow sets up on Wednesday as high pressure moves
east and the next trough approaches from the west. We will see
increasing clouds through the day with temperatures in the 50s
to low 60s. Rain from the approaching trough seems likely to
wait until Wednesday evening before arriving in our forecast
area.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
***significant nor'easter expected Wed night into thu***
the focus of the extended remains centered around an
anomalously strong coastal storm for this time of year being
modeled across all guidance.

All deterministic guidance continues to forecast a possibly
record breaking low pressure for parts of the region Wed night
into thu. This is supported by the various ensemble suites... So
it is not as if the deterministic runs are outliers.

The 14.00z to 14.12z ECMWF eps trended stronger with mslp fields
as did the gefs. Looking at the ensemble sensitivity for that
14.12z run... About half the variance was surrounding the
strength of the low pressure system. Unfortunately a coherent
pattern in the upper level features did not appear until at
36... If not 48 hours... Into the run. That could mean we have
big questions left to answer as late as 8 am Wed morning.

Highlighting that uncertainty is the 15.00z ECMWF eps. Mean mslp
fields trended weaker. This is not because individual members
got weaker... But rather the spread of tracks got larger. So it
is really difficult to work out details with this package.

What I can say is that the peak impacts look to be centered
around 8 am Thu morning. Any potential heavy rain and high wind
will be occurring around this time. I can also say that while
ensemble mean mslp fields show around 980 mb... Most if not all
of the individual members show central pressures lower than
that. The difference in location is smoothing out the mean to
the higher value. So that tells me a dynamic system is looking
increasingly more likely. Trof rapidly going negatively
tilted... Along with favorable left exit region of the upper
jet... And hints of a coupled jet structure all point towards
rapidly deepening surface low in the vicinity.

The rainfall forecast is largely unchanged from previous
shift... Though I have bumped wind gusts up along the coast in
excess of 30 knots. This represents a step towards the more
increasingly likely scenario... But there remains enough
uncertainty that this could trend in either direction still.

Beyond the storm system the multi-model consensus blend was
used for guidance.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Short term...VFR conditions expected today with a light
northwest breeze going calm tonight. Valley fog is unlikely in
most spots tonight due to dry air. Winds become southeasterly on
Wednesday with increasing clouds from west to east. MVFR
ceilings and rain may begin as early as Wednesday evening in the
west.

Long term... As ra moves in Wed night conditions will go from
vfr MVFR to widespread MVFR and areas of ifr. It is too early to
pin down the location of +ra however. Another concern will be
strong surface wind gusts and llws possibly along the coast. Ne
flow will increase thru the night Wed into Thu morning. Gusts in
excess of 30 knots are not out of the question for coastal
terminals... Along with llws due to a 60 knot ely llj. As low
occludes winds turn wly and may remain on the gusty side... But
precip will become less widespread. High pressure will dominate
the rest of the period.

Marine
Short term... High pressure moves across the gulf of maine today
into tonight with light winds expected. Southeast flow begins on
Wednesday.

Long term... Given continued model trends for significant low
pressure moving into the gulf of me Wed into Thu I have issued a
gale watch for all waters in that period. There remains some
uncertainty regarding timing and impacts... But a window of at
least gale force gusts is looking more likely. Will also have to
keep an eye on the CAA winds behind the departing low... As those
could also be on the stronger side... Requiring additional
headlines.

Hydrology
With a strongly forced low pressure tracking near the area heavy
rain remains a possibility late Wed into thu. It is still too
early for details regarding location of heaviest rainfall... But
2 or more inches is possible under the right scenario. While
significant river flooding is not expected... Poor drainage areas
and typically flashy rivers may see some minor flooding.

Gyx watches warnings advisories
Me... None.

Nh... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday afternoon
for anz150>154.

Near term... Kimble
short term... Kimble
long term... Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 13 mi85 min N 9.7 G 12 53°F 55°F2 ft1015.7 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 19 mi85 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 53°F 54°F3 ft1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME9 mi33 minWNW 310.00 miFair48°F43°F83%1017.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE4SE5S5SE6SE8SE8SE9SE8SE7E5SE5CalmE5CalmCalmNW3Calm334NW34W3
1 day agoCalm36E5Calm4SE5SE5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3Calm
2 days agoNE10
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NE10N866NE665CalmCalm3NE5N4CalmN4CalmCalmW3W4W4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Tenants Harbor, Maine
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Tenants Harbor
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Tue -- 12:20 AM EDT     9.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:30 PM EDT     9.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.49.38.163.61.70.70.92.24.26.68.69.79.78.76.74.21.90.50.21.12.95.27.4

Tide / Current Tables for Friendship Harbor, Maine
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Friendship Harbor
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Tue -- 12:13 AM EDT     9.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:20 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:23 PM EDT     9.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:43 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.28.97.75.73.41.60.70.92.14.26.68.59.59.48.36.33.91.80.50.21.12.95.27.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.