Saturday, December14, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Thomaston, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:02PM Saturday December 14, 2019 10:25 PM EST (03:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:31PMMoonset 10:16AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 945 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
.gale warning in effect through late Sunday night...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming sw 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft, building to 10 to 15 ft after midnight. Patchy dense fog this evening. Showers likely, mainly this evening. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm this evening.
Sun..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft, subsiding to 8 to 13 ft in the afternoon.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft, subsiding to 7 to 10 ft after midnight.
Mon..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Snow likely after midnight.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Snow and rain.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Snow likely with a chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of snow.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ100 945 Pm Est Sat Dec 14 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Winds back to the southwest tonight after a cold front crosses, then strengthen further out of the west during the day Sunday into Monday. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thomaston, ME
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location: 43.97, -69.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 150249 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 949 PM EST Sat Dec 14 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex frontal system crosses the area tonight with strong winds over much of the area Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday. Low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England will bring mainly light to moderate snow to the area late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Snow showers are possible Wednesday followed by much colder air for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. Update . Winds are finally beginning to veer across southwestern portions of the forecast area this evening. This trend will continue as the front sweeps through the region allowing fog to begin to lift and showers to finally exit much of the region.

Thereafter, cold air advection commences. Expect some upslope snows over the highest west facing higher terrain by late tonight.

Prev Disc . Have updated the forecast based on current trends and conditions. We are in a lull in terms of wind gradient this evening, which have allowed for light winds. The light winds with plenty of moisture on the ground from today's rains will continue to allow for patchy dense fog to develop for the rest of this evening. The visibility will drop to a quarter mile at times in some areas and a Special Weather Statement as been issued. Drier, westerly winds will enter the region behind a cold front later this evening.

The main chance for showers will shift to northern areas during the overnight period. This will allow for a decrease in runoff.

Prev Disc . A complex storm system continues to impact the northeast CONUS today with the local area of central New England in a relative lull at this hour. The window for heaviest rainfall has passed by this time with a shortwave warm frontal axis crossing into New Brunswick and dry air intruding aloft, evident on satellite imagery. In its wake, patchy dense fog has taken over as temperatures hover in the mid-40s over much of the area, upper- 30s to near 40 across the north (and at the summit of Mt Washington).

Showers remain on the table through the evening under the larger trough aloft with moisture depth remaining upwards of 1-1.25" PWAT. Then, the frontal triple point crosses bringing one final round of moderate rainfall potential, mainly in the Whites and western Maine mountains owing to southeasterly low- level upslope flow. With the exception of the mountains, PoPs decline steadily overnight after the surface system crosses, drying entirely south of the mountains by dawn Sunday with northwesterly flow taking over. There will be overlap between temperatures falling over the mountains and drying, so expect lingering rain showers to switch to snow showers after midnight across higher terrain and areas north. With northwesterly winds comes cold advection, however, which will allow for better mixing of winds from aloft down to the surface. More on winds below in the short term.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Sunday, mid-level wind fields ramp up on the backside of a departing trough aloft as its axis sharpens, rotating north- northeastward into eastern Canada. Models are fairly consistent bringing a belt of h850 winds exceeding 50 kts, locally 60 kts, through the area during the day Sunday when diurnal and cold advection mixing will maximize. This yields wind gusts at the surface to near 40kts, but favorable downsloping over portions of central/southern NH and western Maine will tend to allow a greater portion of strong winds aloft to mix to the surface. A Wind Advisory has been posted for these areas as a result in coordination with other offices. This may need to be expanded into western New Hampshire, but confidence in mixing conditions is lower there, so will allow for another forecast cycle to determine if an expansion will be necessary.

Along with gusty winds, upsloping cloud cover persists over the mountains Connecticut River Valley with snow showers steadily decreasing through the day. Accumulations ought to be light, on the order of 1-3" with higher amounts possible over higher terrain.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. High pressure will build into into the region Monday with high temperatures slightly below normal. Clouds will be on the increase late Monday as a wave of low pressure moves from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England. The 14.12Z model suite is in general agreement with this low tracking over southern New England late Monday night into Tuesday night leaving us on the cold side of the system.

There are some differences amongst global models in the placement of the axis of heaviest precipitation as well as how much warm air aloft can move northward leading to p-type issues in southern areas. The GFS is the wettest and warmest with the axis of heaviest precipitation over south central New Hampshire into western Maine and snow changing to mixed precipitation over southern New Hampshire. The ECMWF places the axis of heaviest precipitation over Massachusetts and is colder leading to a mainly snow event. The NAM12 has trended slower with this system delaying precipitation until mid morning Tuesday and is similar to the GFS in the placement of heaviest precipitation and bringing a changeover to mixed precipitation over southern New Hampshire. For this forecast package have gone with a multi model blend which yields a mainly snow event and amounts near advisory levels. Although amounts are not overly impressive this system bears watching as it looks to impact the Tuesday morning commute.

The Tuesday system will be followed by a sharp trough that swings through Wednesday bringing scattered snow showers to much of the area. This trough will bring much colder air to area with H8 temperatures dropping below -20 C Thursday morning. The end of the week looks dry and cold with temperatures slowly moderating into the weekend.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term . /Widespread LIFR in FG and low ceilings impacts terminals this afternoon in the wake of heavy rainfall seen earlier today. IFR ceilings gradually lift late this evening after another round of rain showers, scattering to MVFR and IFR between around midnight and 5 AM from SW to NE. MVFR, briefly IFR near dawn, ceilings persist at HIE and LEB through tonight into tomorrow morning with rain switching to snow before drying entirely.

Mainly light and variable winds this afternoon increase out of the southwest tonight, becoming gusty by dawn, and strengthening further out of the west tomorrow. Expect gusts exceeding 30 kts for all terminals on Sunday with terminals south and east of the mountains expected to have gusts reaching upwards of 40 kts at times. A period of westerly LLWS is possible around dawn on Sunday before stronger winds begin to mix to the surface.

Long Term . Cloud cover will increase and -SN will break out from SW to NE Monday night into Tuesday that may bring restrictions. Scattered SHSN possible Wednesday followed by improving conditions into the weekend.

MARINE. Short Term . Gale warnings continue through tonight with southerly winds turning southwesterly by dawn, westerly by mid- Sunday. Seas remain greater than 10 ft over the waters tonight, topping 15 ft off the MidCoast tomorrow afternoon as wind gusts ramp up to 40-45kts.

Long Term . Winds relax Monday as high pressure build into the area with gusts dropping below 20 kts Monday afternoon. Low pressure tracking over southern New England will bring -SN over the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday. Gales are possible Wednesday night into Thursday with strong NW winds.

HYDROLOGY. Continue to monitor rivers and have issued an FLS with the new RFC forecasts. Rivers have crested in most areas with the exception of the Suncook River at North Chichester.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028. NH . Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for NHZ004- 006-008>010-012>015. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.

JC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 13 mi82 min SSE 16 G 18 48°F 985.8 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 19 mi82 min S 19 G 25 50°F 47°F10 ft985 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME9 mi30 minS 13 G 203.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F51°F100%986.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Tenants Harbor, Maine
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Tenants Harbor
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Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:16 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:52 AM EST     10.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:58 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.28.56.84.52.20.70.51.53.56.18.610.210.79.98.15.52.70.4-0.7-0.50.93.25.77.9

Tide / Current Tables for Friendship Harbor, Maine
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Friendship Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:17 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:45 AM EST     10.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:59 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:30 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.98.16.44.22.10.70.51.53.56.18.51010.49.57.75.22.50.3-0.7-0.413.25.77.8

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.