Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Thomaston, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:02AMSunset 7:18PM Thursday April 9, 2020 3:30 AM EDT (07:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:25PMMoonset 7:14AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ150 Coastal Waters From Stonington, Me To Port Clyde, Me Out 25 Nm- 931 Pm Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.gale warning in effect from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...
Rest of tonight..E winds around 5 kt, becoming up to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain in the morning, then rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft. Rain, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon. A chance of rain.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of rain in the evening.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Rain.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain.
ANZ100 931 Pm Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Low pressure will approach from the west Thursday and rapidly strengthen along the maine coast during the day. High end gale force wind gusts and heavy precipitation will accompany the storm before it moves off to the northeast. Gusty northwest winds will follow the system as high pressure moves in for the weekend. The next system that crosses near the waters arrives Monday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Thomaston, ME
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location: 43.97, -69.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 090131 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 931 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weather turns significantly more active tomorrow as low pressure develops over the Gulf of Maine with rain and mountain snows expected. High pressure returns on Saturday with temperatures running above normal this weekend, with a warming trend. The next system arrives Friday with heavy rainfall threat.

NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/. 930PM UPDATE . Areas which saw a sea breeze this afternoon got a head start on their cooling this evening. However, this also brought a bit more low level moisture which should set a floor for the cooling this evening. Clouds spilling in aloft will also slow the cooling overnight. Adjusted the hourly temperature forecast based on latest observations, otherwise no significant changes to tonight's forecast were needed.

7PM UPDATE . Made only a few minor adjustments to the forecast based on latest observations. Temperatures have been adjusted based on the last few hours of obs and sky cover has been reduced a bit especially in southern areas, although do expect increasing clouds by morning.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION . Low pressure passing to the south will keep clouds over the region tonight. Light winds at the surface will gradually turn ESE as another area of low pressure approaches from the west towards morning. Any precipitation should hold off until after 8 am. Overnight lows will range from the mid 20s towards north central Maine to the upper 30s/near 40 degrees along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. ***SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY***

Synopsis: A complicated system is on tap for Thursday into Friday with dynamic low pressure crossing the region. As low pressure approaches from the west secondary cyclogenesis will occur with a deepening sub-980mb low over the Gulf of Maine during the day tomorrow. The low is expected to hug the coast and become the dominant surface system in the area before moving into eastern Maine and the Canadian maritimes Thursday night. Precipitation should arrive after 8 am in NH and quickly spread to Maine during the day. Additional wrap-around moisture and lift associated with the upper level low continuing to rotate over the area will result in additional upslope snows and possible squalls Friday as a couple surface boundaries push the storm east.

Snow/rain: Expecting significant snowfall totals across the mountains. Have upgraded watch areas to either warnings or advisories and added southern Coos into the mix to account for some high totals across the Presidential Range. Most of southern NH and the Maine coastal plain will see rain with this storm with some snow possibly mixing in towards the end as colder air arrives. Snowfall totals will range widely, but expecting possible double-digits just along the Canadian border thanks to a combination of high theta-e air and very strong forcing for ascent, including impressive isentropic lift and frontogenesis. Snow ratios will also vary greatly from the mountains to the coast, and snowfall rates may be as high as 2-3" an hour at times. This will result in a tight gradient of snowfall totals across individual zones north of a line from the notches of NH towards Waterville. Likewise, rainfall will also be moderate to heavy, especially during the afternoon and early evening as the coastal low makes its closest pass.

Elevated CSI indicates a chance for some rumbles of thunder at times late morning into tomorrow afternoon. That said the bulk of the instability remains to our south, and not expecting any help as far as the sun is concerned. For now have left thunder out of the forecast, but with this dynamic system would not be surprised if it occurred.

Winds look intense along the Mid Coast by the afternoon and evening as the storm passes by. Have issued a wind advisory for this area with gusts to around 50 mph.

Cloud cover and evaporational cooling should keep temperatures in the mid 30s tomorrow to the lower 50s across southern NH even as warm air arrives. A dry slot moves in quickly late Thursday night, eroding PoPs from the SW. Again expecting precipitation to lighten but continue across the mountains and foothills (and perhaps farther south) Friday as the upper low rotates overhead.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. A quite active weather pattern continues through the extended portion of the forecast with a few opportunities for precipitation. Model agreement exists in strongly anomalous trough development over the CONUS this weekend into next week, generally centered over the Plains with a gradual eastward movement through next week. Our area will enjoy more warmth than cold at least through the weekend and into the start of the next weekend with storm tracks leaving us mostly in the warm sector/on warm advection side of things. Storm track and moisture convergence shift over our area for the first half of the week.

Northwest flow gradually slackens Friday night but troughing continues upslope rain showers into Saturday with some snow showers possible across peaks and ridges. Cold advection isn't particularly strong behind the wave, so afternoon high temperatures will still reach into the 40s to near 50, aided by downsloping and clearing skies (except for the mountains). Ridging pushes into the eastern CONUS by the end of the weekend, ahead of a deepening trough over the central CONUS. Surface high pressure crosses to the south with increasing southwest flow in its wake which allows widespread 50+ temperatures during the afternoon, to as high as 60 across the southern zones.

Strong warm advection in southwest flow over the east precedes a deep longwave trough axis extending from Canada down through the Plains. Models agree that a piece of southern stream short wave energy will kick out ahead of the long wave, moving NEward into our area Monday night into Tuesday. At this point, the main point of contention between model suites is the extent of coastal development as the shortwave reaches the northeast. A more progressive track would send the wave further over the waters with stronger redevelopment over the Gulf and thus stronger forcing and greater rainfall. In spite of track and other mesoscale differences, there is fairly good consensus on a swath of 0.75-1.5" of rain over the area with highest rainfall over the coastal plain of Maine extending northward into the mountains where totals may near 2" in some places. This represents a slight downward trend in QPF however rainfall from this Thu/Fri may prime soils, and the warm weekend will continue to erode snowpack, which yet yield at least an isolated flooding threat.

After this shortwave crosses, synoptic southwest flow continues ahead of the approaching long wave trough, which sends a cold front across in the Tuesday PM/Wednesday timeframe. Confidence in this feature is relatively low but deep moisture doesn't seem to be a huge concern by that time.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term . Strong coastal storm will develop quickly Thursday . with heavy precip . LLWS . and widespread IFR conditions. Precip will move in from the SW first half of Thu and quickly overspread to the NE. Best chance for SN will be HIE and AUG with several hours of LIFR possible. LLWS will be most likely near the coast in the afternoon just ahead of the low center. Conditions will be slow to improve Thursday night into Friday.

Long Term . Remaining sites return to VFR Friday night with HIE as the only possible exception with a few showers possible along with MVFR CIGs which scour out by Saturday. Breezy northwest winds are expected Saturday, then high pressure keeps things quiet for the remainder of the weekend. Sunday night, CIGs gradually lower ahead of an approaching low pressure system with widespread IFR in RA expected Monday night into Tuesday.

MARINE. Short Term . Quiet over the waters tonight . but conditions will be deteriorating rapidly by tomorrow afternoon. Gale warnings have been posted for a rapidly developing coastal storm resulting in high-end gale criteria for a prolonged amount of time. Depending on the exact low location, there is still a low chance of some storm force gusts over parts of the waters. This would be most likely N of Port Clyde.

Long Term . SCA seas pull out of the waters by Saturday with a chance of SCA- level offshore wind gusts of Saturday. The next system crosses near the Gulf of Maine on Monday with building seas and strengthening winds.

HYDROLOGY. A period of heavy rain is likely along the Maine coast Thursday evening . transitioning to snow over the interior. Given snow in the mountains and a mix into the foothills . do not expect significant river flood issues. May have some short-fused issues along the coast especially with water levels rising towards the ~1 AM Friday high tide which may prevent efficient surface water drainage along the coast. Another system with heavy rainfall threat approaches Monday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. An extended coastal flood advisory is in effect for high tides continuing through early Friday. Astronomical tides are near minor flood levels without wind impacts already . and with surge levels expected to increase ahead of Thursday's storm . minor impacts are likely. Forecast surge values remain around 2 ft at maximum . and this lines up well with the current products.

EQUIPMENT. The last GYX upper air observation was March 25 at 12Z. Unfortunately, a disruption in gas supply has temporarily halted observations from GYX. At this time it is unknown when observations will resume.

The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter remains off the air with an unknown restoration time.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory from 4 PM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ022-027- 028. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MEZ023>028. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for MEZ007>009. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday for MEZ012>014. NH . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014. Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM Thursday to 2 PM EDT Friday for NHZ001-002. MARINE . Gale Warning from 2 PM Thursday to 11 AM EDT Friday for ANZ150>154.



NEAR TERM UPDATE . Kimble SHORT TERM . Hanes LONG TERM . Casey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 13 mi86 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 40°F 1 ft1002 hPa
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 19 mi86 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 41°F 41°F1 ft1001.1 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME9 mi34 minSE 510.00 miOvercast40°F36°F86%1003 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)
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E11E11SE8E7SE5S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmNW336--------S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Tenants Harbor, Maine
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Tenants Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:10 AM EDT     11.80 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     -1.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:40 PM EDT     11.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     -1.32 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.811.39.36.12.6-0.3-1.8-1.702.96.49.31111.3107.54.21.1-0.9-1.3-0.12.55.89

Tide / Current Tables for Friendship Harbor, Maine
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Friendship Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     11.46 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM EDT     -1.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:33 PM EDT     11.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM EDT     -1.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.510.88.85.72.3-0.4-1.8-1.70.136.49.210.810.99.673.91-0.9-1.2-02.65.98.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.