Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Florence, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday Night...Transient ridging continues to move southeast in the mid-levels while a weak shortwave moves over top the ridge, bringing an increase in cloud cover and no substantial precipitation. There is a low chance (15%)
PoPs along the central OR Cascades in Lane and Linn this afternoon but not expecting more than very light rain if anything. The pattern shifts tonight as a trough begins to dig southeast from the Aleutians. Winds will become onshore late tonight as a cold front approaches the PacNW. Light rain will also return as the front moves onshore, bringing around 0.10-0.25 inches of rain inland and 0.25-0.50 inches along the Coast, Coast Range and Cascades late through Saturday afternoon.

The pattern remains active through the weekend as the upper level low pinches off and moves toward central CA, leaving OR in the saddle point between upper level disturbances. As such, post-frontal precipitation chances will persist through the weekend, but will trend lower as the cut-off low develops.
Weaker forcing and the more showery precipitation will lead to lighter precipitation totals Saturday evening and into Sunday morning. Light totals less than 0.10 inches expected for areas west of the Cascades. Snow levels drop to between 3000-4000 feet late Friday through Sunday with meager snow totals over the Cascades expected through Sunday. Greatest totals are expected above 3500-4000 feet, generally 2-6 inches. There is a 20-30% chance for 6 inches falling at pass level from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. A few snowflakes may also reach the higher peaks of the Coast Range and Willapa Hills as well. -19

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...A reinforcing trough is expected to drop south from northern AK, bringing much colder air aloft to the region early next week with subsequent disturbance through the end of the week. Morning lows fall to near or below freezing each morning, Monday through Thursday.
850 mb temperatures in the -3 to -6 C range are expected which is marginal for snow to the valley floor within onshore flow. If temperatures are cooler, closer to -8 to -10 C, chances will increase. The NBM has started to latch on to low probabilities for lowland snow at 5-10% overnight and early each morning with higher probabilities in the Western Portland hills, Salem hills, and the Chehalem mountains at 20-30%. Any snow that does accumulate would quickly melt as temperatures rise above freezing each day, thereby limiting potential impacts.
Confidence in snowfall totals over the Cascades remain low confidence but trends support coinciding cold air and moisture which should bring healthy snowfall. Accumulation at pass level seems likely but exact timing and amounts are unclear so will continue to monitor the pattern for impacts. There is also a chance for snow to reach pass level in the Coast Range, mainly around highway 6 and 26. -19

AVIATION
Currently VFR at inland terminals and MVFR CIGs at most coastal terminals. Expect primarily VFR conditions for inland terminals through a majority of the TAF period. The only exception will be KEUG, with the potential (10-30% chance of IFR/LIFR conditions) for fog development after 12-14Z Friday.
While conditions may improve to VFR at coastal terminals by 03-06Z Friday, an approaching frontal system will bring rain and deteriorated CIGs to the coast around 09-12Z Friday (30-50% chance for MVFR CIGs ). Current deterministic guidance suggests that deteriorated MVFR conditions may begin as late as 18Z Friday for coastal terminals. Otherwise, expect winds to remain around 5 kt or less through the period, with winds beginning to increase towards 10 kt at coastal terminals at the end of the TAF period.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with light southeast winds at 5 kt or less through the period. Scattered high clouds continue through today, with bases lowering after 09Z Friday as a frontal system approaches from the west.
~12

MARINE
Winds around 5 to 10 kt have turned west to southwest this afternoon and will continue through tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system. Seas around 5 to 8 feet today will increase to 13 to 15 feet by Friday morning as a long-period westerly swell arrives. The highest seas are expected between Cape Shoalwater and Cape Falcon beyond 20-30 NM, where there are 10-30% chances that seas briefly exceed 15 ft between 1 AM and 7 AM PST Friday morning. Seas look to ease back to around 9 to 10 feet while modest high pressure will support increasing northerly winds through this weekend. Small Craft Advisories are therefore in effect across the outer waters (beyond 10 NM) from 7 PM PST this evening through 1 PM PST Saturday, across the inner waters (within 10 NM) from 1 AM PST Friday through 1 PM PST Saturday, and for the Columbia River Bar from 1 AM PST Friday through 1 AM PST Saturday. These advisories may be extended into Saturday night and/or Sunday if confidence increases for frequent northerly gusts above 20 kt. ~12/36

BEACH HAZARDS
A high threat for sneaker waves is likely Friday through Sunday evening due to a long period westerly swell. Waves can run up significantly farther on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming. Keep children and pets away from the surf zone. Keep off of jetties, rocks and logs near the surf zone. If you see someone swept into the sea do not swim in after them. Call 911 and keep an eye on them until help arrives. -10

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Saturday for PZZ271>273.