Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newcastle, ME

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms move through late this afternoon and into the evening hours. The best chance for a thunderstorm will be across southern New Hampshire this evening, where some brief stronger wind gusts are also possible with the storms. North of these storms, showers are more likely.

The cold front crosses through tonight, with gusty northwest winds following behind the front after midnight. Some gusts to around 40 mph are likely just behind the front, and then more frequent gusts of 30-35 mph are likely afterwards. Temps also fall quickly behind the front, with lows dipping to near freezing across northern areas by morning, with mainly 40s south of the mountains.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Tomorrow looks to be mainly dry, cooler, and gusty. Highs are likely to only top out around 40 near the Canadian border, with highs in the mid to upper 50s downwind of the mountains.
Northwesterly wind gusts of 30-35 mph are likely through most of the day, with some gusts of around 40 mph possible through central Maine as low pressure deepens across the Canadian Maritimes.

The combination of gusty winds and dry conditions bring fire weather concerns for tomorrow, with RH values dropping to near 20 percent across southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine.
Dryness of the fuels remains in question, with that being influenced by the progression of this evening's storms.

Winds ease tomorrow evening, with mainly clear skies. High pressure gradually builds in through the overnight hours, setting up favorable radiational cooling conditions.
Temperatures likely cool into the 20s across northern locations, with low to mid 30s ranging from the foothills to the coastline.



LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The trend at 500 mb across NOAM will be for more zonal flow next week, although there will still be a couple weak waves moving through and some variation in temps, but overall, spring is here and temps are trending upward, with highs more in the 50s and 60s and some 70s. Chances for rain /and yes, I can just rain at this point/, will be Mon night into Tuesday and again late in the week, although both events will lean toward showery than steady rain.

Sfc Ridge over the CWA Monday will shift E during the day, and allow for S flow to pick up bringing some warmer air compared to Sunday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and a fair amount of sun. The threat of showers comes in Monday night, as 500 mb trough passes just N of of the CWA late Monday night and Tuesday. Low range from around 40 in the mtns and E zones to the mid 40s in S NH. Tuesday looks to start showery but should see any rain move out with some clearing in the afternoon. The places that do clear and break into warm sector will be in the low 60s to around 70, mainly the S half of NH and interior SW ME. In the mtns, and E ME as well as the ME coast highs will only be in the 50s.

After Tuesday 500 mb zonal flow should support sfc ridging right through Thursday, providing fair day and nights with highs in the upper 50s and 60s and mins upper 30s to mid 40s. Next chance of showers is Friday as weak wave moves through the 500 mb zonal flow.

AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Short Term... Mainly VFR conditions prevail through tomorrow night. Some brief showers are possible at CON and MHT this evening, but PROBs remain low. Gusty northwest winds increase late tonight, with gusts of 25- 30kt during the daytime tomorrow. Winds then ease tomorrow night.

Long Term...VFR Monday, with some MVFR-IFR Mon night into Tuesday morning in showers and low cigs, then VFR through Thursday.



MARINE
Short Term...A cold front crosses the waters tonight. SCA conditions in southwest winds continue as winds shift to northwesterly behind the front late tonight. Some gusts to near gale force are possible across the eastern outer waters on Sunday. Winds then gradually ease Sunday night.

Long Term...Winds will stay below SCA levels Mon through Thursday, although could see S winds get close to 25 kt late Monday into Tuesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Despite cool temps Sun...RH values will be very dry and winds will be gusty. Dewpoints may fall into the single digits and result in min RH around 20 percent south of the mountains.
Northwest winds may be sustained in excess of 20 mph and gusting over 35 mph at times during the day. If showers don't produce much wetting rain Sat...that could leave fuels dry for Sun.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ150>154.