Friday, November27, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Newcastle, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:04PM Friday November 27, 2020 6:19 PM EST (23:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 4:51AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 546 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Areas of drizzle this evening, then patchy drizzle after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the afternoon.
Mon night..SE winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft, building to 10 to 14 ft after midnight. Rain.
Tue..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft, subsiding to 9 to 11 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Wed..SW winds around 15 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
Wed night..W winds around 15 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
ANZ100 546 Pm Est Fri Nov 27 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. High pressure builds in from the west through the weekend. A stronger low pressure system will track through the eastern great lakes Monday and send a frontal boundary across the gulf of maine Monday night. This will bring a period of strong winds ahead of this front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newcastle, ME
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location: 44.03, -69.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 272255 AAA AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 555 PM EST Fri Nov 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Mainly dry and mild weather expected today through the weekend except for a few mountain rain and snow showers late tonight through Saturday. A potent area of low pressure will track to our west Monday night into Tuesday bringing the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds. An upper level low will remain over the Northeast keeping conditions unsettled for the middle to latter half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. Update . Plenty of radar echoes blossoming this hour ahead of an approaching S/WV trof Low Z. near zero ZDR points towards drizzle as expected. Forecast soundings do not show much saturation in the snow growth zone overnight . so I will stick to drizzle or freezing drizzle wording for the overnight period. Freezing drizzle will primarily be confined to the higher elevations of Nrn NH and Wrn ME.

Previous discussion . Impacts: Slick roads will be possible in far northern NH and the extreme northwestern ME mountains early tomorrow morning.

Clouds developed over the coastal plain earlier this morning and have persisted through the afternoon. Also started seeing some very light returns on radar this afternoon which are likely producing some light drizzle or very light rain at best.

A weak cold front will continue to traverse the region through this evening so the clouds will hang on through the night. Not expecting much in the way of precipitation with its passage, but northern NH and the extreme northwestern ME mountains have the best chance of seeing some drizzle or freezing drizzle tonight. There is some chance of rain/snow showers or freezing rain instead, but the forcing is rather weak and upstream locations in VT are only reporting light drizzle. Forecast soundings also suggest that drizzle or freezing drizzle are more likely due to the drier air moving in aloft, so opted to go with drizzle and freezing drizzle in the forecast. As far as impacts, at the very least, may see some slick roads in those areas in the early morning hours with the possibility of a few hundredths of ice accumulate.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. Impacts: Minimal.

Clouds and upslope rain or snow showers will persist in the mountains on Saturday, but skies should begin to clear elsewhere in the late morning and become mostly clear by evening. High temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than Friday for most locations. High pressure begins to build into the region Saturday night, bringing an end to any upslope snow showers while clouds will linger in the mountains.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. High pressure crests over the East Coast on Sunday so expect quiet weather with a continued westerly flow becoming southwesterly with time. The temperature will be mild in the 40s to low 50s. We drop off into the 20s and 30s Sunday night.

The next more significant storm system arrives early next week and models are in fairly good agreement on its track at this point. The surface low will track from the Gulf of Mexico north northeast through the Appalachians and up to Lake Ontario where it occludes and spins on Monday before lifting further northeast over the next few days. With a track to our west, this will put us firmly in the warm sector of this cyclone, at least aloft, with a period of heavy rain and strong winds expected ahead of a strong front crossing the area Monday night. The first warm advection rain begins Monday afternoon but intensifies Monday evening as moisture gets sucked into the occluding low on a strengthening southeasterly low level jet. This system will pick up a deep moisture feed from the tropics, but for the most part the most intense moisture surge goes to the east of our area. We instead get a brief shot of heavy rainfall with amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely for most of the area. The heaviest rain is likely in the foothills, though could extend toward the midcoast depending on the location of the warm/coastal front and the added convergence along and just to the north of this. Overall rainfall amounts are not likely to cause flooding on area rivers, but the intense rainfall in a short amount of time could cause nuisance flooding or ponding of water in poor drainage areas Monday evening.

As mentioned earlier, a strong low level jet does develop with this system, although its strength is still a bit uncertain. The NAM is most aggressive with this jet in the later stages of its available model run. Model wind and pressure fields do hint at a coastal front developing, which would make sense given the easterly low level flow ahead of the approaching warm front. Inland of this coastal front expect a stronger low level inversion preventing the strongest winds in the jet from mixing down. However, on the coastal side of the front there is a better chance of mixing the gusts down. This seems more likely the further east we go along the coast Monday night, with the peak in winds happening Monday evening, shifting east after midnight. At this point advisory level wind gusts are a possibility mainly from Portland eastward. This is not too dissimilar from an event we saw about two weeks earlier, although so far the low level jet from this storm appears weaker than with the November 15 event.

Although the rain and wind shut off as the front pushes east late Monday night, the stacked low pressure remains to our northwest on Tuesday with an onshore flow and cyclonic flow aloft leaving the potential for lingering showers. It's not until Tuesday night that we get a stronger push of cooler air arriving from the southwest, so showers will take the form of rain until this cooler air arrives.

While our upper low slowly spins out to the northeast, another upper low dives down through the Rockies and into the southern Great Plains for the middle of the week. This helps establish a broad trough over the eastern two thirds of North America with our area on the eastern side of this trough. Although this generally spells cooler conditions, the cold air masses will dive south first through the center of the country and modify quite a bit by the time they get to our area. As a result, our temperatures will actually be fairly close to normal through the rest of next week if not a degree or two above normal. We don't see another significant precipitation maker arriving until the end of the week when that next upper low eventually rounds the base of the broader trough and reaches the East Coast next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term . Expecting MVFR/VFR restrictions to develop this evening as ceilings lower and some light fog/mist develops. Winds will remain light and not expecting any precipitation through Saturday morning. PWM/RKD/AUG/PSM/HIE could see brief periods of light drizzle through tomorrow morning. Conditions improve on Saturday as skies clear, except possibly at HIE where clouds will persist.

Long Term . Generally VFR expected Sunday and Sunday night. Increasing clouds and lowering ceilings expected on Monday with rain arriving Monday night, heavy at times late in the evening. Strong winds are also expected which could lead to low level wind shear before the front arrives around midnight. Showery conditions will likely keep MVFR or IFR conditions around Tuesday with conditions improving more as we head into Wednesday.

MARINE. Short Term . No concerns in the short term as high pressure builds over the waters through Sunday night. Light drizzle will be possible at times through Saturday morning.

Long Term . High pressure crests over the East Coast on Sunday before the next frontal system arrives Monday night. Expect southeast winds ramping up quickly Monday evening with Gale or even Storm Force winds possible ahead of the front. The winds drop off quickly behind the front, though continue from the southeast until another front moves in from the southwest Tuesday night.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.



NEAR TERM . Legro


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 24 mi76 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 47°F 48°F4 ft1014.9 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 29 mi76 min E 3.9 G 3.9 48°F 48°F2 ft1014.9 hPa
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 40 mi20 min WSW 6 G 6 47°F 1014.5 hPa (+0.8)47°F
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 45 mi50 min 46°F 45°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi30 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 47°F 46°F4 ft1013.9 hPa45°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME10 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast45°F44°F97%1015 hPa
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME23 mi24 minE 48.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F100%1014.7 hPa
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME24 mi27 minN 48.00 miOvercast45°F44°F97%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm3NE34CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Newcastle, Maine
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Newcastle
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:14 AM EST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:51 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:19 AM EST     9.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:45 PM EST     0.55 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:02 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:45 PM EST     8.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.13.11.711.32.74.878.69.49.38.16.13.920.80.61.43.35.57.48.68.98.1

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:46 AM EST     -0.96 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:52 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:40 AM EST     0.67 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:49 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:58 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:28 PM EST     -1.05 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 02:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:03 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 04:25 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:05 PM EST     0.53 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:55 PM EST     0.41 knots Min Flood
Fri -- 08:25 PM EST     0.41 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 10:14 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.9-1-0.9-0.50.10.60.70.60.60.4-0-0.6-0.9-1-1-0.8-0.30.30.50.50.40.40.1-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.