Saturday, May30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newcastle, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 4:57AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 30, 2020 8:50 PM EDT (00:50 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 727 Pm Edt Sat May 30 2020
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
ANZ100 727 Pm Edt Sat May 30 2020
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. A trough of low pressure crosses the waters tonight with northwesterly winds strengthening in its wake for the day on Sunday. Winds will then diminish as a high pressure ridge axis moves over the waters Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure will then drop south and east from canada into new england on Wednesday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newcastle, ME
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location: 44.03, -69.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 302325 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 725 PM EDT Sat May 30 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will cross the region tonight bringing showers primarily to the mountains. Much cooler and drier air arrives Sunday with temperatures running below normal into the first part of next week. Fast moving disturbances will bering periods of showers mixed with dry periods Tuesday night through Thursday. Temperatures will moderate towards the second half of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/. 725 PM Update . Not too much change at this hour other than to increase PoPs for the next couple of hours across western zones as gusty showers move eastward into western NH shortly. Could see isolated and brief gusts up to 35 or 40 mph in any heavier shower. Otherwise, little change to the forecast.

Previously .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern: Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows an amplifying pattern across North America with lowering heights across the northeastern United States as a deepening trough arrives from the Great Lakes region. An initial vorticity maxima associated with a surface cold front is now pushing east of the GYX forecast area with a much more substantial vortmax and secondary trough now moving into the eastern Great Lakes. This vortmax will arrive over our region tonight and is the focus of the near term forecast as it brings with it another chance for showers as we turn to a significantly cooler pattern for the second half of the weekend.

Through this evening: The first stage in our move to cooler/drier air is ongoing with dewpoints having fallen into the 40s and lower 50s today Through 8pm. expect skies to generally be partly cloudy with additional clouds arriving from the west near/after sunset. Winds will diminish with temperatures falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s in the mountains . with readings in the upper 60s to around 70 to the south.

Tonight: Upstream vorticity max heralds the arrival of deeper troughing from the west with a surface low taking shape overhead. Mid level forcing associated with this vort max and downstream height falls will combine with modest low level instability to produce a region of showers that will move through overnight. Best forcing will be over northern areas . closer to the mid level shortwave and with some upslope assistance Further south. with the westerly/downslope component to the flow expect more isolated/scattered activity. Ongoing cold advection through the period will bring T8s to near freezing by daybreak . but ongoing winds /which will actually begin strengthening towards daybreak as low pressure strengthens to our east/ and cloud cover will preclude temperatures falling much below the lower/mid 50s south of the mountains with values in the 40s likely for the mountains . quite a change than the previous few nights.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. High Impact Weather Potential: Frost/Freeze Potential Sunday Night.

Pattern: Longwave trough axis settles overhead with this trough helping to spawn low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday. This low . and high pressure south of the Great Lakes will direct a continental polar (cP) airmass into our region with significantly drier and cooler conditions than recently. Overall weather impacts look insignificant outside of the potential for frost Sunday night.

Sunday: Overnight shortwave passes east of the region with another on it/s heels in the cyclonic flow around large scale trough arriving from the west. Expect some residual morning showers in the mountains /with snow levels dropping to around 3-4kft/ with arriving dry air likely to reduce these to nothing more than some upslope clouds in the afternoon as the boundary layer dries out dramatically. Deep boundary layer and cold advection will fully mix sub 5kft winds to the ground . but the overall gradient isn/t that strong . so expect northwest winds no more than 15 to 25 mph. This northwesterly flow will advect sub 30F dewpoints into the region . with afternoon temperatures in the 50s in the mountains / lower 60s south as T8s fall to around freezing. Given the temperatures/humidity of late . expecting some will feel a bit of a chill by late afternoon and evening!

Sunday Night: With the upstream longwave trough axis moving overhead . T5s fall to -28C by daybreak Monday with T8s falling below freezing. This represents a 2-3 sigma departure below climatological norms with the mid level trough actually representing an anomaly seen less than once a decade /though the lower level temps are not quite as extreme/ Thus. the airmass is certainly cold enough to support a frosty night . however let/s examine the pattern At the surface. high pressure will be settling south from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley with weak low pressure well to the northeast in the Canadian maritimes. This implies some residual gradient and 1000 mb geostrophic wind progs agree . remaining 10- 15kts through the overnight. This is a bit marginal and from a pattern recognition perspective . the setup is not optimal. Additionally, there is reasonable agreement in the model suite for moisture in the H8-H7 layer near the trough axis. These factors combine to lower confidence in just how low temperatures will fall overnight. Statistical guidance is pretty robust with it/s temperatures . with subfreezing values in the mountains and frost- yielding values through the foothills and even a bit south /MET 33F at SFM!/. While these values are certainly within the envelope of possibilities the pattern suggests caution going quite this low. For this package . have moved towards the middle ground between the colder statistical guidance and the more moderate National Blend.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. The pattern over North America this upcoming week will feature a trough in the means at the H5 level over New England and southeastern Canada with a ridge over the center CONUS. Multiple short waves will move through this trough increasing precipitation chances from Tuesday through Thursday. Confidence is low in the timing and placement of precipitation chances with periods of dry weather expected during this time frame. The best chance for precipitation looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will start the period below normal and will moderate through the week.

Monday will be the coolest day of the period with an anomalously deep trough is centered just to our southeast and H8 temperatures around 10 C below normal. Highs will be restricted to the 60s for most with low 50s in the mountains. Lows Monday night will be well below normal ranging from the low 40 degrees in southern areas to low 30s up north.

A couple of short waves will be diving SE from Canada towards New England starting Tuesday. As mentioned above, confidence is low in timing and location of precipitation as global models differ in the progression of these waves. I am expecting periods of showers starting Tuesday night through Thursday along with some precipitation free periods. Have gone with chance/slight chance PoPs through this period to highlight uncertainty. Upper level flow will transition from meridional toward zonal towards the end of the week allowing for moderating temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term .

Summary: After partial clearing skies today . a trough of low pressure will bring clouds and showers tonight before much drier air arrives along with gusty northwest winds on Sunday.

Restrictions: VFR conditions will largely dominate the period outside of HIE At HIE. after improvement to VFR for a time this afternoon and evening . conditions will again deteriorate to MVFR in SHRA with these restrictions persisting through the early morning hours on Sunday before improving to VFR. Can/t completely rule out a brief MVFR SHRA at LEB-CON-AUG as well . but expect the predominate condition to be VFR.

Winds: Westerly winds 10g18kts will weaken for a time through tonight before strengthening from the northwest on Sunday to 12g20kts. These winds will diminish to less than 10kts Sunday night.

LLWS: Winds aloft will strengthen from the northwest after midnight tonight and while the low levels look to remain mixed . 2kft winds may reach 30-35kts for a time in the 6-12Z window.

Long Term . Mainly VFR through Tuesday. Fast moving disturbances may bring periods of MVFR Tuesday night through Thursday in SHRA.

MARINE. Short Term .

Winds/waves are gradually diminishing . with SCAs coming down as of this writing Behind the secondary trough Sunday. northwesterly winds may require additional SCAs before diminishing Sunday night.

Long Term . Mainly quiet on the waters with winds less than 20 kts and seas less than 5 ft.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 24 mi106 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 55°F 51°F4 ft1006.4 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 29 mi106 min S 1.9 G 3.9 53°F 3 ft1006.2 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 45 mi50 min 73°F 54°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi60 min WNW 3.9 G 5.8 68°F 51°F3 ft1008 hPa (+1.1)48°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME10 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair69°F46°F45%1009 hPa
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME23 mi54 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy70°F52°F53%1008.3 hPa
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME24 mi57 minNW 510.00 miFair67°F48°F51%1009.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Newcastle, Maine
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Newcastle
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:36 AM EDT     9.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 12:10 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:45 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 PM EDT     9.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.34.16.38.49.69.78.97.252.60.90.20.51.94.16.58.49.49.38.36.54.32.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:46 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.82 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:35 AM EDT     -1.15 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:46 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 01:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:24 PM EDT     0.88 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:17 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:10 PM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.40.10.60.80.60.2-0-0.3-0.7-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.7-0.20.40.80.80.50.30.1-0.3-0.8-1-0.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.