Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newcastle, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 4:01PM Thursday December 12, 2019 8:53 AM EST (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:35PMMoonset 8:18AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ152 Coastal Waters From Port Clyde, Me To Cape Elizabeth, Me Out 25 Nm- 601 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..SE winds 15 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, building to 8 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Sun..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
ANZ100 601 Am Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Westerly winds will diminish today as high pressure moves across the waters. Low pressure is expected to develop over the southeastern states Friday then move northeastward while strengthening. It should be over or near new england Saturday afternoon and evening. Gusty westerly winds will follow in the wake of the storm Sunday into Monday. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newcastle, ME
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location: 44.03, -69.54     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 121108 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 608 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build in and then cross the region today with fair weather. Low pressure will track over western New England Friday night through Saturday night bringing mainly rain, and possibly heavy rain to the area. Precipitation may briefly start as a wintry mix before quickly changing to rain except in the mountains where the highest elevations may see prolonged wintry precipitation before changing over. Windy and colder conditions follow Sunday into Monday. Another colder system will approach New England Monday night into Tuesday that may bring more wintry precipitation.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. 6 am Update . Little change to the going forecast other than to adjust temperatures and sky cover based on latest observational data. Wind gusts continue to diminish.

Previously .

Cold air advection with brisk winds continue in the wake of a cold front early this morning. Gusts up to 30 mph will subside early this morning as high pressure continues to build on in. Increasing subsidence will allow for mountains snow showers to shut off this morning also. Otherwise, a mostly sunny and cold day for most locations today with some increasing clouds likely late this afternoon as WAA strengthens in advance of the next system.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/. Fair weather is expected tonight with dry weather. However, there should be a good amount of mid and high clouds around in association with the increasing WAA pattern. This should limit radiational cooling.

Warm air advection continues Friday, with low level moisture increasing from the south during the day. This may allow for some drizzle and freezing drizzle during the afternoon hours. The coldest temperatures are expected to be in the mountains and foothills where readings around or just below 32 degrees are expected. This is where the best chance of light ice accretion will be.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Late Friday night into early Saturday morning, ridging will be moving offshore as southern stream short wave energy moves northeast along the East Coast. Increasing southerly flow will pump high theta-e air northward ahead of deepening low pressure. At the surface, a well-defined warm front associated with the surface reflection will help to increase lifting for ascent as it arrives overnight. As this happens stratiform precipitation will be increasing across northern New England, with near total coverage by the morning.

Colder air will be weakly dammed across northern NH and the western ME mountains initially, creating a chance for a wintry mix early on before warmer air advances north. Farther south rain will be falling. By Saturday morning almost the entire area will have changed over to rain, and with PWATs well above normal and ample forcing, expect moderate to even heavy rain at times Saturday and Saturday night. A this time it looks like 1-2" of rain will fall over the weekend. Snow amounts look light . although some additional accumulations are likely Sunday as colder air arrives and the mountains change back over to snow.

Warmer temperatures, heavy rainfall, and a ripe snowpack will all contribute to rises in area rivers with this event. Also agree with WPC's Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook citing higher rainfall totals near the coast and higher rainfall rates possibly leading to pockets of flash flooding.

The system accelerates as it becomes more negatively-tilted, and the center of the low will pass to our west Saturday night. The main short wave trough swings through on Sunday. Sunday will be especially windy with a tight pressure gradient in place, with gusts in the 25-35 mph range.

By Monday highs will be struggling into the lower 20s north to low to mid 30s south. Another system moving up the East Coast will affect New England around next Tuesday. The storm will stay south of us, and with cold air already in place, it looks like snow for the majority of our area. Another shot of reinforcing cold air arrives behind this system.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Short Term . VFR will prevail through tonight. Gusty NW winds will diminish by 12z today. Otherwise, mostly VFR on Friday, although MVFR conditions are expected to develop by late afternoon as low level moisture increases. Some light drizzle will be possible as well, with pockets of freezing drizzle in the mountains and foothills.

Long Term . Low pressure will track over western New England bringing widespread rain to the area Saturday into Saturday night with MVFR likely. The main precipitation type will be rain with SNPL or -FZRA mixing in at the higher elevations. Conditions will improve to VFR Sunday into Monday. Winds will be quite gusty Sunday with gusts around 25 kts.

MARINE. Short Term . Gales have been downgraded to SCAs at this hour as winds continue to diminish. Otherwise, some marginal SCA conditions will be possible Friday afternoon off the Midcoast of ME.

Long Term . SCAs or possible gales are likely by Friday night into Saturday for the outer waters and possibly the bays. Winds decrease Saturday night somewhat with the passage of a storm, but a tight pressure gradient will bring winds back up to gales over the outer waters and possibly the bays on Sunday, decreasing to SCAs Monday.

HYDROLOGY. Low pressure tracking up the East Coast will bring 1 to 2 inches of rain to the region Friday night into Saturday night. Recent rain and mild temperatures have lead to many rivers in New Hampshire running high into the 90th percentile for this time of year. While much of the snowpack south of the mountains has been decimated from recent warmth, NOHRSC estimates show that a ripened snowpack remains from the New Hampshire Lakes Region southwestward towards the border with MA and VT. This snowpack, although heavily reduced, will likely melt off with this system and along with rainfall, will lead to flooding concerns for rivers in central and southern New Hampshire. Farther north into the White Mountains, snow followed by rain will likely serve to moisten the snowpack leading to less runoff and flooding concerns.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Low pressure tracking to the west of the area Friday night through Saturday night will bring strong onshore flow and increasing near shore waves. Peak surge with this system is forecast to occur a few hours after the mid-day high tide Saturday and this with near shore waves around 5 to 7 feet may pose some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding concerns.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. NH . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ150>152-154.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44032 - Buoy E0104 - Central Maine Shelf 24 mi110 min WNW 19 G 25 27°F 47°F4 ft1033.8 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 29 mi110 min NW 19 G 29 25°F 2 ft1033.8 hPa
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 45 mi60 min 24°F 42°F
44007 - PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME 47 mi64 min W 19 G 25 27°F 43°F2 ft1035.5 hPa (+3.6)9°F

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wiscasset Airport, ME10 mi61 minVar 310.00 miFair22°F1°F42%1036.5 hPa
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME23 mi58 minVar 410.00 miFair21°F6°F52%1035.8 hPa
Augusta, Augusta State Airport, ME24 mi61 minWNW 510.00 miFair20°F1°F45%1035.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KIWI

Wind History from IWI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr33CalmCalm3NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW353W9
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SW76S6SW8SW6SW6S5SW9SW5SW444Calm46CalmCalmCalmSW343Calm3
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Tide / Current Tables for Newcastle, Maine
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Newcastle
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:51 AM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:55 AM EST     10.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:29 PM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:33 PM EST     9.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.46.94.72.51.10.71.43.25.78.29.910.49.88.25.730.8-0.3-0.30.93.15.67.89

Tide / Current Tables for Sheepscot River (off Barter Island), Maine Current
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Sheepscot River (off Barter Island)
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 02:21 AM EST     -1.04 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:02 AM EST     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:45 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:51 PM EST     -1.28 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:00 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:35 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:31 PM EST     0.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.7-1-1-0.8-0.50.10.710.80.50.2-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.1-0.9-0.40.30.80.80.50.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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