Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elba, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Tonight

A 1033 mb surface high will build across the area tonight. This high will provide light north and west winds and mainly clear skies. This will result in low temperatures on Wednesday morning ranging from the upper teens (central Wisconsin) to around 30. With temperatures this cold, we are looking at killing freeze for tender vegetation. This will likely end the 2024 growing season.
As a result, kept the Freezing Warning in effect for tonight.

Wednesday into Friday Night

A 500 mb high pressure system will shift east and extend from the eastern Great Lakes south into the Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys. It will also be gradually strengthening. At the same time, several shortwaves will be ejecting out of a closed 500 mb low over southwest United States through the Plains and into southwest Ontario. This will result in a strengthening pressure gradient not only at the surface, but also aloft. The strongest winds will be on Thursday and Friday afternoons and west of the Mississippi River.
The southerly winds in this area will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph.

In addition to the breezy southerly winds, relative humidities will be primarily in the 20s on Thursday afternoon and range from the mid- 20s to mid-30s on Friday afternoon. This will dry out fuels and result in elevated fire weather concerns for much of the area. Of greatest concerns will be northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and north of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin where the winds will be the strongest.

Temperatures will warm during this time period. On Wednesday, high from the lower 50s to lower 60s. By Friday, high temperatures will range from the mid-60s to lower 70s. Normal high temperatures range from the mid-50s to lower 60s.

Weekend

During the weekend the upper level ridge will build back to the west and the polar jet will become zonal across southern Canada. This will result in slackening winds and continuation of dry weather.
Temperatures will remain well above normal with high temperatures ranging from the mid-60s to mid-70s and low temperatures ranging from the lower 40s to mid-50s. Normal high temperatures are in the 50s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period with northwesterly winds this evening backing to the southwest at 5-10 kts for the day on Wednesday. Winds increase through the evening with sporadic gusts up to 15-20 kts west of the Mississippi River. LLWS may also develop if surface winds remain lighter, but confidence was not high enough to mention in the TAFs at this time.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

It will be dry and breezy across the area on Thursday and possibly Friday. Of greatest concerns will be west of the Mississippi River and north of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin where south winds will range from 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Afternoon relative humidities will be in the 20s on Thursday and range from the mid-20s to mid-30s on Friday. This will likely result in elevated fire weather conditions for Thursday afternoon and possibly Friday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for WIZ032-033-041- 053>055-061.
MN...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MNZ079-086>088- 094>096.
IA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT Wednesday for IAZ008>011-018-019- 029-030.