Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elba, MN

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN

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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 050348 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Key Messages:

- Smoke has moved over portions of the area, with possible impacts to sensitive groups.

- Shower and storm chances return again for Monday and Tuesday.

- More seasonable temperatures return midweek, with the next chance for showers and storms looking to be towards the end of the week into next weekend.

Today - Tonight: Smoke & Air Quality Advisories

Overall, the upper level pattern remains, with the upper level high continuing to drift westward over the north-central U.S. and south- central Canada. The northeasterly flow has allowed smoke from wildfires in Quebec to work its way into parts of the local forecast area. Smoke reaching the surface has resulted in slightly reduced visibility (5-6sm) across many of our Wisconsin counties including here locally in La Crosse. Some indication in the HRRR and RAP that smoke/haze may remain possible through the overnight, so will continue the mention in the forecast for areas most impacted. Of note, the WI DNR and Minnesota Pollution Control Agency has issued an Air Quality Advisory for fine particle pollution through Monday morning as the smoke is impacting PM2.5 concentrations at the surface. The air quality index is expected to range from "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" level to "Unhealthy" level in Wisconsin and "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups" category for Minnesota. Precautions should be taken if planning to be outside this afternoon and evening.

Monday - Weekend: Shower and Storm Chances, More Seasonable Temps

Through the medium range, models are in good agreement on an upper level blocking type pattern, with the upper ridge remaining over the Northern Plains/central Canada between troughing/lows over the northeast and California. A shortwave trough is expected to move through this (NE/Mid-Atlantic) troughing, with a surface front dropping down across the region through the day on Monday. This should provide our next focus for shower and storm chances into the start of the new week. It looks like there have been some slight timing (of the front/precip) and coverage (precip) differences that guidance continues to resolve. Even so, latest runs of the hi-res model guidance would suggest precipitation may begin to move into northern portions of the area by Monday morning. How much further south and east this precipitation makes it becomes the challenge, as guidance suggests drier air advecting from the east along with mixing could work against convection. With this, confidence would be higher for increased shower and storm chances in the north/west where more moisture and instability remain per model guidance and soundings. As far as QPF, by Tuesday morning the 04.12Z HREF 24-hr QPF ensemble probability matched mean ranges from 0.1 to 0.25 inches, with spotty areas of 0.5 to near 1 inch mainly again across the north/west.

This surface boundary looks to possibly stall for a time, with shower and storm chances remaining into the day on Tuesday mainly across southeast MN and northeast IA. Have continued the trend in increased temperatures for Monday. However, depending on the timing of the frontal boundary, adjustments down may be needed especially across our northern counties. The boundary looks to be pushed out of the area Wednesday, with more seasonable temperatures and drier air looking to return behind it. This could bring some concerns as minimum afternoon relative humidity values drop into the low 20s to low 30s across the forecast area. Still some details to work out in the long term, but waves of shortwave energy/surface fronts may provide some focus for further shower and storm chances across the area heading into the weekend. Lower confidence this far out, so will continue to monitor trends for now.

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2023

MVFR visibilities still being observed across mainly Wisconsin this evening from Canadian wildfires as smoke rotates around large blocking high. Short term guidance suggests perhaps some improvement or mixing overnight but with many areas still calm, will keep with persistence at least for KLSE.

With trends of ridge retrograding west somewhat, will still be watching cold front move through Great Lakes will bring an increase in mainly mid level clouds and subtle wind shift on Monday. Boundary could be just enough to focus a few showers or isolated thunderstorms as well but given lower confidence /10-20%/ of any impacting TAF sites, will keep them out for now.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

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