Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elba, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Today - Monday: Flurries Possible Today, Much Cooler

After a long week of severe weather, we are finally set to enter an overall benign period of weather. The upper trough is expected to be squarely overhead by late this afternoon. Enough saturation in the DGZ may allow for some isolated flurries/sprinkles along and north of the I-94 corridor later today, otherwise most locations should remain dry. As the trough starts to depart to the east tomorrow, we could see a little vorticity max swing across the region in the northwest flow aloft. Cool temperatures, a saturated boundary layer/DGZ, and steep low level lapse rates could allow for some scattered snow showers, mainly west of the river. No accumulations are expected with either rounds of activity.

The main point of note will be the much cooler temperatures expected this weekend. Highs today and Sunday will be 20-30+ degrees cooler than where they were at yesterday, sitting in the 40s areawide. Will also have to look at the potential for frost/freeze headlines tonight and Sunday night. Current 18.01 NBM probabilities for temperatures below 32 degrees sit at 60-100% for tonight and 90-100% for Sunday night into Monday morning. With the recent abundance of rainfall and well above normal temperatures, a partial green-up has occurred across much of the area. Surface flow finally shifts to the south as the surface high pressure drops to our south and east, allowing for warmer air to advect into the area with highs on Monday back into the mid to upper 50s.

Tuesday - Next Weekend: Warming Up, Rain Returns

The warming trend continues into mid-week with 70+ degree temperatures returning to the Upper Mississippi Valley. Yet another surface high pressure will slide across the plains and into the Upper Midwest for mid-week keeping conditions nice and dry. Tuesday looks to be a beautiful day with light winds, abundant sunshine, and highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The surface high will begin to shift off to the east through the day on Wednesday with our next chances for widespread rain looking to come late Wednesday night into Thursday. A cutoff low across the Western CONUS is expected to eject northeast in an attempt to rejoin the main upper jet, putting our area in southwest flow aloft. At the surface, a low pressure center is expected to develop across the North Central Rockies and move east. With gulf moisture streaming northward ahead of this surface low, lift from its southeastward extending warm front will allow for chances of rain to develop across the region. Friday will need to be watched as potentially another severe weather day, depending on the speed of the cold front through the region. If the front remains just to our west by Friday afternoon, our area would be in the warm sector with ample forcing both aloft and at the surface. This far out, details are virtually impossible to nail down with any certainty but will keep an eye on this possibility over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain gusty out of the north/northwest into tomorrow afternoon before gradually coming down and backing to a more westerly direction by tonight.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

The areal Flood Watch for Southwest Wisconsin and portions of West Central Wisconsin has been cancelled a little early given that heavy rain has departed the area. Flood watches and warnings remain in effect for area rivers, including the Black, Yellow, Kickapoo, and Wisconsin Rivers, mainly for Minor flooding. These are expected to crest within the next few days.
No meaningful additional precipitation is expected through the weekend and into mid-next week. Apart from a few flurries today and tonight, conditions should remain dry through Wednesday.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.