Elba, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elba, MN

April 15, 2024 8:45 PM CDT (01:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM
Moonrise 10:29 AM   Moonset 2:02 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 152328 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Potent spring storm to bring widespread rainfall with a good potential for 1+" amounts (60-100% chance) and gusty winds 30 to 45 mph

- Severe weather for some Tuesday. There is the potential as far north as I90, however the greatest threat will be for parts of northeast Iowa and southern Wisconsin, increasing as you head south.

- Rain chances return for Thursday with more seasonable weather for the weekend. Frost/freeze conditions possible for Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Overview:

Water vapor satellite imagery and heights show a 500mb ridge of high pressure over the local area with a closed area of low pressure over the Four Corners region. This storm system will continue to move east toward the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday, opening up as it lifts northeast. A few showers/sprinkles and a few mid clouds were noted on the visible satellite images and local radar from the MPX area into areas north of I90. The surface warm front at 19Z stretched through central Nebraska into northern Missouri.

Potent spring storm to bring widespread rainfall with a good potential for 1+" amounts (60-100% chance), gusty winds, and severe weather for some.

The closed 500mb low pressure over the Rockies moves toward the Mid- Missouri River Valley by 16.15Z and eastward to the Mid/Upper Mississippi River Valley by 17.12Z. We see very good general model agreement on the synoptic/surface pattern and the track of the surface low is tracking farther north into southeast MN by Wednesday morning.

Broad synoptic lift increases with the approaching closed low pressure system. Upper level support increases with strong warm air and deep moisture advection. The CAMs (convective allowing models)
show showers and thunderstorms increasing across Nebraska and South Dakota this evening then filling in along the warm front across western Iowa tonight. The showers and storms will become more widespread across the region spreading northeastward Tuesday morning into the local area with continued strong moisture advection. The left front exit region of the jet will also help support the showers and storms as they move north.
Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected until the storm system exits the area.

Deep layer shear increases through the day Tuesday 45 to 60kts.
The gradient of SBCAPE of 500 to 2000J/kg sets up along the border to just south into DVN's area by 00Z. Forecast soundings and forecasts of MLCAPE show 100 to 500 J/kg mainly along and south of I90 through the day. With the surface front south of the area and the instability dropping off as you move north, with the first few rounds of showers and storms, any storms would be elevated with a potential hail/damaging wind threat during the day. The frontal system and triple point by late afternoon is forecast to approach the local forecast area toward OLZ. Forecast soundings show strong 0-1km helicity in that region, thus tornadoes will be possible along and just north of the warm front.

We continue to see rainfall amounts of 1 to 2.25" in the forecast for the storm total. 1hr flash flood guidance is 1.5 to 2'" per hour and 2.5" for six hours. The HRRR guidance shows the highest probabilities of from 21-00Z from northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin (10-40%). Heavy downpours could result in minor hydro issues related to ponding on roads and filling of poor drainage areas, but in general, we should be able to handle the rain rates. We'll need to watch out for training of storms due to the multiple rounds though.

We continue to see strong east winds Tuesday with gusts 30 to 45 mph. As the surface low tracks toward the area Wednesday morning, the winds decrease, but increase again Wednesday afternoon from the northwest with 30 to 45 mph. A wind advisory may be needed for much of the area Tuesday, for now, the strongest winds during the day should be west of the Mississippi River.

Behind the storm system through mid week, we have a trailing area of 500mb low pressure that will push across parts of Canada and low pressure with more zonal flow will track across the local region.
Embedded shortwaves in this pattern will result in scattered showers with the potential for rain changing to snow if the cold can can arrive before the precipitation ends, the rain could mix with or change to snow Friday north of I94. Cold advection through the day Friday continues into the weekend. Frost/freeze conditions still look possible for Saturday morning with lows in the 20s to lower 30s with some mid 30s. Seasonable temperatures continue into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ceilings will gradually lower late tonight and on Tuesday morning as a warm front moves northward toward the area.
Ceilings will become IFR/MVFR by mid-morning Tuesday and then continue into the afternoon. The visibilities will likely become IFR to MVFR at times in storms and heavier showers, but confidence in timing is low at this time.

On Tuesday morning, the sustained east southeast winds will climb into the 20 to 30 knot range and the wind gusts will range from 30 to 45 knots. These strong winds will continue into the afternoon.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for WIZ017-029- 032>034-041-042.
MN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ079-086-087- 094-095.
Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM CDT Tuesday for MNZ088.
IA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for IAZ008>010-018- 019-029.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KONA WINONA MUNIMAX CONRAD FLD,MN 16 sm50 minE 0310 smClear64°F28°F26%29.97
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Wind History from ONA
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GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley   
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La Crosse, WI,



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