Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elba, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:27AMSunset 8:40PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 1:39 AM CDT (06:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 270404 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 1104 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

SHORT TERM. (This evening through Tonight) Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

At 3 PM, scattered showers and thunderstorms were found across the area, producing plenty of lightning and some reports of gusty winds/small hail. Surface low pressure was located far to the south in northern Missouri, with warm, moist air streaming northward ahead of it and into our area.

Steep low-level lapse rates and very high precipitable water may allow a few wet microbursts/strong wind gusts across the area this afternoon and evening. Mid-level lapse rates are not particularly steep, but are sufficient for some small hail as well. Big question is tornado potential through early evening, as the surface low and an upper level shortwave push north into western Iowa. Deep layer shear is fairly weak at under 30 knots, but low level winds have been gaining an easterly component near the low and winds at 850 mb should increase this afternoon, increasing the low-level shear into the 20+ knot range. This may lead to a several hour period of isolated tornado potential through early evening. Current thinking is this potential is greatest in parts of northeast Iowa closest to the approaching low and strongest shortwave forcing. As these storms move northward into Minnesota, the threat becomes much more conditional as daytime heating is lost and shortwave forcing wanes.

Storm chances continue into tonight, mainly out west closer to the surface low/surface front. Will have to keep an eye out for heavy rain across our far western areas, but the latest guidance puts the bulk of the heavier rain to our west as well. Still, the environment will be very moist and deep warm cloud depths mean storms will be efficient rain producers. Remaining storms should gradually diminish later tonight as forcing moves out and instability wanes.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday through Tuesday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

Slow moving cold front will bring more shower and storm chances Wednesday afternoon, but weakening winds aloft/weakening shear, in addition to less instability, should lessen the threat for widespread severe weather. However, gusty winds or perhaps small hail are not totally out of the question with steep low-level lapse rates and 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With precipitable water of 1"+ and warm cloud depths over 3000m, will have to again watch for locally heavy rainfall across the area. The slow-moving front continues to work across the area Thursday, with shower and storm chances yet again. The cold front finally clears the area late Thursday, with Friday into the weekend looking drier as high pressure nudges in. Temperatures look a little cooler, with highs in the 60s to 70s. Mid-level ridging builds to our south for early to mid next week, with west-southwest flow bringing warmer air back into the area and shower/storm chances with shortwave energy riding on top of the ridge over our area.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1104 PM CDT Tue May 26 2020

Local and regional radars showing the remaining activity is remaining away from the forecast sites. It is still close enough to KRST to include a VCSH for a few more hours and barring any further development overnight, it should be dry. However, confidence is not super high that there won't be some pop up activity in the sustained weak moisture transport. As a slow moving cold front over eastern into south-central Minnesota edges slowly toward the area, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop tonight and spread over both airports and persist into Wednesday morning. Some short-term guidance is suggesting there could also be a short period of IFR, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time. With the boundary in the area again Wednesday afternoon and evening, more scattered convection should develop, but with weaker upper level forcing, the coverage should not be as much as the last couple of days and will not include a VCSH or VCTS for now.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.

SHORT TERM . Lee LONG TERM . Lee AVIATION . 04


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winona, Winona Municipal Airport-Max Conrad Field, MN16 mi43 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F68°F94%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONA

Wind History from ONA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE6CalmS3S3SE3SE5CalmSE6SE5CalmS6SE6SW5
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for La Crosse, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station La Crosse, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.