Saturday, June12, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elba, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:51PM Saturday June 12, 2021 9:46 AM CDT (14:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:58AMMoonset 10:08PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elba, MN
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location: 44.05, -92     debug


Area Discussion for - La Crosse, WI
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FXUS63 KARX 121201 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 701 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

SHORT TERM. (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

At 1 am, the cold front was located a long a KEAU-KDSM line with dewpoints dropping into the lower 60s promptly behind the front, followed rapidly by 50s. Satellite showing some scattered mid- level clouds but otherwise clear skies northwest into the Dakotas. With a 3-5C drop in the 925 mb temperatures from Friday, the area will see a nice break from the heat. With lower dewpoints, the change will be very noticeable . 5 to 10F cooler. The area should see full sun today.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

On Sunday, shortwave trough impulses parade through the northern Great Lakes in northwest flow, the strongest of which comes during peak heating late in the day /per agreement in the 12.00Z deterministic guidance/. This has a deeper tropospheric influence with a well-defined surface low pressure center in ~northwest WI and attendant cold front southwestward into MSP and ABR. The forecast area will be in a warm advective pre-frontal air mass with 925mb temperatures warming into the 23-28C (central WI to sern MN) range by late in the day. With nearly full sun, dry soils, and deep mixing, temperatures should overachieve again. Bumped high temperatures Sunday. The cold front then sweeps through overnight into Monday morning.

Further north, an interesting environment exists ahead of the surface low Sunday. That area will be firmly in the main jet flow aloft with excellent deep wind shear. Instability will be the limiting factor to convective storms . with most model guidance suggesting MLCAPE = 500 J/Kg or less range across Taylor county. With the surface low approaching, storm-relative helicity values would support updraft rotations and supercells /per 12.00Z SPC HREF/. While the HREF also suggests a 60-70% probability of SBCAPE > 1000 J/KG early Sunday eve, believe the CAM inputs are suffering from too high a dewpoint forecast for that well-mixed air mass. MLCAPE "worst" case scenario, per low-level dewpoint of about 55F, looks to be 1000 J/Kg, but north of the area /KRHI/. CAPE would be in the 300-500 J/Kg range near Taylor county. The SPC day 2 marginal risk looks reasonable. Will just keep watching the instability to support storms.

Monday-Wednesday . High pressure settles in with low-level flow north/east through the period and very pleasant temperatures /80s/.

Thursday and Friday . Some large scale evolution occurs here as the strong upstream ridging builds east with heat for Thursday. A frontal boundary moving through combines with higher instability to provide storms chances. It is still early to glean severe storm possibilities.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 657 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds 5 to 15kts today with some stronger gusts at KRST decreasing to under 10kts after 00Z.

CLIMATE. Issued at 210 AM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

The upcoming week looks dry until storm chances enter the forecast Thursday and Friday. This will continue to exacerbate the drought situation across the area.

The streak of 90 degree days ended at Rochester MN Thursday, but continued at La Crosse, WI. It is now the 10th longest streak in the historical record at 9 days. It is also the earliest in the summer for this streak to occur. The streak will likely end today

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None. IA . None.

SHORT TERM . Baumgardt LONG TERM . Baumgardt AVIATION . Zapotocny CLIMATE . Baumgardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Winona, Winona Municipal Airport-Max Conrad Field, MN16 mi51 minN 610.00 miFair75°F55°F50%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KONA

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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