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FXUS63 KARX 032352 AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 552 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

DISCUSSION
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Key Messages:

- Another system is expected to move across the region Monday night into Tuesday bringing light snow chances (30-65%) to the local area.

- Increasing confidence for a warm up towards the end of the week. Current forecast temperatures for Thursday and Friday look to be in the 40s to low/mid 50s.

- Still low confidence in precipitation chances for next weekend.
Will continue to monitor and update as details become more clear.

Monday Night Into Tuesday:

Only a short break until another system moves through the area bringing further precipitation chances to the area. Model guidance shows an upper level shortwave trough dropping fairly quickly from Alberta Canada and southeast across the region Monday night. One thing that we continue to watch is the track of the attendant surface low. The last couple runs of the GEFS and ECMWF ens have consistently shown the more southern track with a tighter clustering noted in the MSLP mean member centers over IA and moving into IL. A deeper dive into a few of the hi-res models would suggest a track possibly further south compared to the global models. All this to say a general trend southward has stuck with these last runs and we will continue to trend the forecast that way, but will be something to keep an eye on as more hi-res data continues to filter in for this time period. Overall, though, guidance would still favor light QPF with the HRRR 24-hr ensemble probability-matched mean suggesting <= 0.1 inches. In turn, HRRR probabilities show splotchy probabilities /15-30%/ for 1 inch of snow, with some locally higher probabilities /40-60%/ for 0.5 inches mostly along our southern border
Will make one last note
noticed a few of the hi-res models were trying to suggest a 1 to 2 hour period for a chance /~15%/ of freezing precipitation. Will be something to watch, but confidence was not high enough to include with a lot of ifs revolving around the thermodynamics and possible instability shown in model soundings.

Tuesday Night - Weekend:

The aforementioned system looks to exit the region by later Tuesday, with model guidance showing an upper level ridge across the central U.S. by the middle of the week. However, the pattern begins to transition more quasi-zonal (across the western/central U.S.) by Thursday with the flattening of the ridge as shortwave energy from the western U.S. ejects eastward. The signal remains for an increase in temperatures especially for Thursday and Friday. Confidence continues to increase as both GEFS and ECMWF ens solutions would suggest 70-100% probabilities for greater than or equal to 40 degrees F for areas around and south of Interstate 94 on Thursday.
Similar probabilities on Friday from the GEFS with the higher end highlighted more over northeast IA and far southwest WI. ECMWF ens only a tad bit lower with probabilities hanging more around 50-80% Friday.

Another system looks to pass to the north of the forecast area Wednesday night. Current guidance would continue to keep highest precipitation chances to the north, with the GEFS and ECMWF ens showing mainly less than 30% probabilities for measurable precipitation just clipping our far northern counties. As we head into the end of the week an upper level trough develops across the western U.S. and is forecast to move eastward into the central U.S.
into the weekend. There remain some differences among ensemble solutions on how this progresses, resulting in quite a bit of spread for this time period. Overall, with lower confidence in the extent of any precipitation chances for these time periods, will maintain the NBM chances for now.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Widespread MVFR ceilings persist through Monday with some breaks in the clouds possible this evening out towards RST, though confidence in any breaks was too low to mention in the TAF. Winds will be light and variable overnight and switch to the southwest at 5-10 kts by late morning on Monday. Another quick hitting band of snow moves through Monday evening, which could bring brief periods of IFR visibilities.

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.

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