Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rochester, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 141 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Tonight into Saturday Night

The 10.00z and 10.12z models are in general agreement that there will be gradual transition from northwest flow aloft to more of a southwest one as a 500 mb ridge builds east across the region. As this occurs, a warm front will lift northward across the area on Saturday and Saturday night. As a 40-knot 850 mb jet increases the moisture transport across the area during the afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms will increase their coverage. With limited instability and shear in the 1-7 km layer, not anticipating any severe weather. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid- to upper 50s. The warmest temperatures will be in central Wisconsin.
This is due to the precipitation not arriving in this area until later in the day.

Sunday and Sunday Night

A 500 mb shortwave trough will move on the northern periphery of a 500 mb ridge. As this, a cold front will move east across the area on Sunday night. Most-unstable CAPES will climb up to 500 J/kg across western Wisconsin and between 500 and 1000 J/kg ahead of this front. The 0-6 km shear remains in the 30 to 40 knot range. With the 750-550 mb lapse rates between 8 and 9 C/km, there may be some marginal severe hail associated with elevated storms along and ahead of the front. The better chances will be west of the Mississippi River. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Monday and Monday Night

As another surface low pressure system moves northeast through the region, the warm front will lift northward toward Interstate 90 and 94 corridors, temperatures will warm into the lower 70s north of Interstate 94 and into the mid- and upper 70s for the remainder of the area. Surface dew points will climb into the lower 60s south of Interstate 94. This will result in surface-based CAPES between 500 and 1500 J/kg south of Interstate 94. Meanwhile, the better deep layer shear is more over Clark and Taylor counties. This could limit the severe weather threat despite severe probability machine learning models painting its highest risk over our area. Hail looks to be the primary threat with lower threats being weak tornadoes and damaging winds.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night

A warm front will lift north toward Interstate 90 and 94 during the morning and early afternoon. Unlike the previous 2 days, the low pressure area is moving through the region earlier in the day. The 0-1 km most unstable CAPES climb into the 1500-2500 J/kg in the warm sector. The best deep layer shear are located along the warm and cold fronts. The 0-1 km looks to less than Monday, so likely still looking at weak tornadoes. With the storms likely developing earlier in the day, the damaging wind threat might be less because you have less time to develop a cold pool. With a better chance for super cells and steep mid- level lapse rates, the chances for large hail look to be greater.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Mostly clear skies are expected through tonight and then clouds will gradually increase on Saturday morning. With the loss of diurnal heating late this afternoon, wind speeds will gradually decrease.

CLIMATE
Issued at 1056 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Potential Record Warmth Monday & Tuesday (Record/Forecast):

April 13th High Temp Warm Low ----------- -------- ------- Rochester, MN 83 (2023) / 78 59 (1941) / 57 La Crosse, WI 85 (2023) / 78 63 (1941) / 59

April 14th ---------- Rochester, MN 87 (2003) / 75 56 (1976) / 57 La Crosse, WI 90 (2003) / 76 60 (1883) / 59

ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.