Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Austin, MI

AVIATION

MVFR to IFR conditions exist across southeast Michigan terminals to start this TAF period. The saturated boundary layer holds in place through tonight north of a stalled boundary bringing cooler easterly flow. This will promote a maintenance of moisture and lead to development of IFR/LIFR fog across parts of the region with a greater focus across the southern terminals as nocturnal cooling sets. These conditions are expected to last through sunrise tomorrow morning with potential for some improvement in visibility towards 14/15Z. Though, IFR ceilings look likely to hold through much of tomorrow as winds become more southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots.

For DTW...LIFR/IFR fog likely to settle back over DTW this evening and persist through sunrise tomorrow morning. Potential for some visibility improvements towards 14-15Z, but low ceilings likely to remain in place through much of tomorrow.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling at or below 5000 ft through tomorrow afternoon.

* Moderate for ceiling and visibility below 200 ft and/or 1/2SM tonight into Friday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

DISCUSSION...

Low pressure is tracking through northern Ohio this afternoon, passing east of the Eastern Great Lakes this evening. Heavy rain showers with compact upper level wave/deformation will come to an end before 00z with mid-level drying and upper-level ridging building over the Central Great Lakes tonight. However, a lack of low level cold advection/drying and weak flow near the surface in the wake of the low will likely produce low clouds and fog, as surface dew pts remain elevated (above 32 degrees) over the frozen ground. A dense fog advisory may be needed tonight for parts of the CWA, as a light southeast component off Lake Erie/Lake ST.
Clair/southern Lake Huron helps the cause. However, low clouds depths may be sufficient to produce even some drizzle, so not sure fog will end up being widespread 1/4sm or less, as winds attempt to increase slowly around sunrise.

A highly amplified upper level pattern continues, with summer-like upper level ridge off the East and an upper level trough extending along and west of the Rockies. A strong upper level wave will eject out of the Four Corners region on Friday. An extreme low level jet traversing through Lower Michigan Friday night - Saturday as an aggressive height fall center and associated surface low tracks through Eastern Lake Superior or close to the Straights. 12z NAM suggests surface dew pts rising to 60 degrees, supportive of 1000- 850 mb capes in the 500-1000 J/kg range. Favorable late afternoon timing of the cold front draws concerns for damaging winds with any stronger convection, due to the strong left over jet- at least 50 knots at 850 mb. Mid-level lapses rates are decent, and with favorable wet bulb zero heights around 10000 feet, hail is also possible. No issues with the marginal risk issued by SPC for day 3.
Even without any thunderstorm development, gradient winds/boundary layer mixing will likely approach wind advisory criteria/40-45 mph per local probabilistic guidance, as there looks to be 45+ knot of flow at 925 mb level. 925 mb temps at or slightly above 14 C supports highs around 70 degrees, but will be dependent on the coverage and duration of the showers.

Short lived cold shot shot (850 mb temps slightly negative) Saturday night with rebounding heights and warming to finish the weekend into early next week. Temperatures once again well into the 60s for Monday and Tuesday, with even 70 degrees possible on Tuesday (per about half euro ensemble members). This is dependent on elevated warm front lifting through, which could lead to showers and cooler temps.

MARINE...

Weak area of low pressure continues to slide along the length of Lake Erie this evening bringing showers to the southern half of the region. Departure of the low overnight brings a period of drier weather as well as lighter winds shifting to the southeast. A stronger low then lifts out of the Plains and into the northern Great Lakes Saturday. In advance, the attendant warm front lifts through the central Great Lakes late Friday supporting another round of showers and a shot at a few thunderstorms with southwesterly winds developing post-front Friday night. While strengthening warm advection results in 50-55kt flow only a couple thousand feet off the surface, magnitude of the airmass maintains strong thermal stability over the lakes keeping winds at or below 30kts. System's cold front crosses the region second half of the day Saturday generating wider spread showers and scattered thunderstorms, particularly towards the southern Great Lakes. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible over these southern waters. There remains a couple hour window along/immediately following the front where west/west-northwest gusts could near entry-level gales. That said, while the gradient is supportive of stronger gusts, trailing airmass is not particularly cold relative to the current lake temps resulting in only slightly unstable to neutral thermal profiles acting as an inhibiting factor in peak wind speed potential.
Confidence at this time is not high enough to warrant a Gale Watch.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ444.