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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 939 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny late in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and afternoon. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Sunday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 231401 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1001 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Patchy fog continues to slowly burn off this morning. Inherited forecast remains in good shape with mostly sunny skies expected to prevail for many areas today. High temperatures spanning the 70s area-wide...warmest across downsloping areas of far northwest lower.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Pattern Synopsis:

Weak flow through the atmospheric column will remain overhead as the Great Lakes stays pinned between multiple features through the first half of the weekend. Tropical Storm Ophelia will work across the Mid- Atlantic today into tonight as highly amplified ridging holds firm over Ontario/Hudson Bay and a potent shortwave trough ejects over the central Great Plains. This trough will provide strong support aloft for a deepening cyclone that looks to swing into the northern Great Plains/Upper Midwest by this evening as aforementioned ridging helps keep surface high pressure in place across much of eastern Canada.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather is expected across northern Michigan through the near term period. Patches of dense fog early this morning will quickly mix out after sunrise as diurnal heating begins and easterly winds begin to increase. Partly to mostly sunny skies are in store for today as temperatures warm into the mid 70s for most areas this afternoon. A dry low-level airmass in place with little forcing aloft will keep shower/thunderstorm potential low through the period. As has been the case the last couple nights, patchy fog will be possible again tonight/early Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern across North America has tied itself into a bit of a knot. Stronger westerlies displaced well to the north across northern Canada...while the pattern over the CONUS is dominated by several disturbances. Primary feature is an upper low over the northern Rockies...with a closed anticyclone to its north over Saskatchewan. In between an elongated PV filament extends from northern Quebec to north of Lake Superior and back west across southern portions of the prairie provinces.

A weakness off the southeast coast has yielded tropical cyclone "Ophelia" (your musical tip for the night...listen to The Band's live version of the song "Ophelia" from "The Last Waltz" album. You won't get that tune out of your head for the rest of that storm's lifecycle). Another weaker short wave trough was over the upper Midwest. Farther upstream a short wave trough is coming ashore over British Columbia with a moisture-laden strong zonal Pacific jet in its wake. Axis of higher precipitable water extends from the western Gulf into the upper Midwest/northern High Plains (1.25 to 1.75+ inches).

At the surface...an expansive area of high pressure extends from Atlantic Canada back across the lower Great Lakes and into Ontario.
Cold front lies across southern Lake Superior/Upper Michigan/ northern Wisconsin/Minnesota. 60+ degree dew points have made it into Minnesota/Wisconsin...as well as pooling along the cold front across parts of Upper Michigan/northern Ontario.

Pattern evolution with regard to impacts on the Great Lakes is pretty interesting and becomes pretty amplified/anomalous through the weekend. Strong upper low is forecast to get carved out off the Pacific Northwest coast by Monday (-3 to -5 sigma standardized 500mb height anomaly)...while the closed anticyclone over Saskatchewan today is expected to expand/strengthen. By Monday this high will be nearly equally anomalous (at least with respect to a 30+ year return period) as its Pacific low counterpart (+3 to +4 sigma standardized 500mb height anomaly). Surface high north of the Great Lakes this morning isn't going to move much...if anything will expand and strengthen beneath the building ridge aloft. By Monday morning at 1035mb high is expected east of James Bay...that would be a pretty good high for the middle of winter let along late September (+3 to +4 sigma MSLP standardized anomalies over northern Quebec). It is this deep layer anticyclone and the easterly flow around it that looks to have a big impact on northern Michigan weather into the near future.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal. Sunday dawns with high pressure strengthening over Hudson Bay...with deep layer anticyclonic/dry flow into the upper Lakes keeping precipitation on the other side of Lake Michigan. Given proximity of deeper moisture just upstream probably won't escape some high Ci on Sunday...and perhaps a bit more Ac for Monday. Some hints in the probabilistic guidance for fog/St development Sunday morning particularly over northeast Lower where easterly boundary layer flow will keep dew points up. Winds will be a bit gustier on Sunday as well from the east (15-25mph expected).

Highs look mild by late September standards...normal highs for Sunday range from 64-67 but most areas expected in the 70-75 degree range. A bit cooler along the northeast Lower shoreline with onshore flow...and perhaps a bit warmer along the northwest Lower shoreline with easterly downsloping winds. Monday's highs may be tempered a bit by more cloud cover and some low level cold advection...so blended some of the lower end of the temperature distribution with some consensus raw guidance to knock highs a few degrees back from Sunday (still mostly upper 60s-lower 70s).

LONG TERM
(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Blocking high to the north of the Great Lakes expected to still be in place at the start of the extended forecast. Remnant short wave trough from the northern Plains/upper Midwest from this weekend looks like it will eventually slide southeast and may end up completely bypassing Michigan. Almost resembling a weakish rex block type set up (without the closed low). Height falls from the Pacific are expected to make an eastward push during the week.

As upper Midwest short wave trough drops southeast around Michigan...we may end up some small probabilities for light rain across northern Lower. That may be about it for the extended period however as the remainder of the week looks dry. Temperatures through the extended look pretty seasonable...perhaps another push of warmer air by next weekend.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 551 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Patchy fog will restrict VSBYs across parts of northern Michigan over the next few hours before quickly dissipating after sunrise.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the day with dry conditions persisting through the issuance period. East winds around 5-10 kts will be in place by late morning/early afternoon with gusts around 15 kts at times. Patchy fog may develop once again across parts of the area late tonight/early Sunday morning.



MARINE
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

Winds and waves largely look to stay below advisory criteria through this weekend. East-southeast to east-northeast flow will increase through the morning hours with the potential for occasional gusts to approach advisory criteria over far northern Lake Michigan and Lake Huron this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances over the nearshore waters will remain low through early next week.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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