Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 110741 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 241 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

. Lake snows and cold to continue .

High impact weather potential: Cold temperatures with accumulating lake snows.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Talk about stating the obvious, but well advertised shot of Arctic air now fully entrenched across the northern Great Lakes, as evident by current readings in the single digits and teens, with wind chill values several degrees colder yet. Trough responsible for this shot of cold centered north/south right through the heart of the region, with embedded shortwave and secondary shot of even colder air dropping southeast into the northwest Lakes. Despite basically non-existent synoptic support, maintenance of extreme over-water thermal gradient and lake-induced equilibrium levels up near 10kft continues to result in lake effect snow showers. Cloud-bearing flow has backed more southwesterly in response to that next approaching wave . targeting the Tip of the Mitt counties for the most organized snow showers. As for our eastern upper snow belt locations . land breezes and development of weak low pressure across the eastern basin of Lake Superior has punted lake snows well north of Whitefish Point.

Coldest temperatures anomalies will pivot quickly east across the area this morning as that upstream wave does the same. Upper jet streak rotating out of the northern Plains will keep the mid and upper level flow environment progressive, booting core of coldest air off to our east tonight, with temperatures steadily recovering the rest of the week. Lake snows continue today, subsiding tonight as warm air advection commences ahead of weak low pressure racing east across the northern Plains (which will likely bring some more accumulating snow to at least parts of the area Thursday).

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Progression and impacts from lake effect snow showers and attendant headline considerations.

Details: Southwest flow early this morning will veer more westerly, to even a bit northwest, with passage of that upstream wave and attendant surface trough. This will once again punt the more organized lake snows south into our traditional snow belt locations. Best lake snow parameters will be found across Lake Superior this morning and early afternoon, with better synoptic moisture contribution and lake-induced convective depths up and over 10kft (lake-induced cape over 1k joules/kg). Would expect enhanced convergence along surface trough to drive band of heavier snows quickly south into northern Chippewa county this morning (perhaps impacting Sault Ste. Marie), with more traditional multi-banding structures impacting the area later this morning into the afternoon. Could easily see another 3 to 6 inches, locally higher, especially along and north of M-28. Gusty winds will also yield pockets of blowing snow, especially across north-south oriented roadways.

Not quite the same story for northern lower Michigan, with much less synoptic contribution and gradually lowering convective depths. This will definitely throttle back on snowfall intensity some, and given those veering wind profiles keeping any organized bands transient, can't really see much more than and additional 1 to 3 inches in northwest lower Michigan. Lighter snow showers and flurries elsewhere. Much like eastern upper, expect gusty winds to produce some blowing and drifting snow, especially in those more open and exposed areas.

As for headlines . Will let inherited advisories and warnings run their course for northern lower Michigan, with at least a few inches of additional snow expected through this morning. Given expected increase in snows across the snow belts of Chippewa county, along with some blowing and drifting snow, will go ahead and issue a advisory for the northern sections of that county today into this evening.

Would expect a downward trend in snow showers heading into this evening as warm air advection develops and the atmosphere further drys out. Could still some some minor snow accumulations early this evening, particularly across northern Chippewa county. Elevated moisture from approaching clipper system arrives toward morning, likely reorganizing the lake processes a bit near the Lake Michigan coast up into the Straits. May even see the beginning stages of warm air advection driven light snow punch into the area, although trends continue to support most of this activity holding off until the daylight hours of Thursday.

Well below normal temperatures today, with highs only in the middle and upper teens (normal highs in the lower 30s), with wind chill readings at least a few degrees below zero. Remain cold tonight, with lows in the single digits and lower teens.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Another Clipper on Thursday to produce a few inches .

Synopsis/Forecast: A wave currently coming onshore in British Columbia will sink southeast through Wednesday, ending up over Wisconsin by midday Thursday. This helps spin up a surface low in the central Plains, which will also be supported by a 100 kt jet right entrance region through the day. This becomes a quick-hitting clipper for our area Thursday.

Details/concerns: We'll be on the backside of a surface high early Thursday, allowing moist and milder air to flow north over us. As the clipper approaches the area our winds turn more out of the south- southeast. Isentropic lift out ahead of the warm front combined with deep -DivQ ahead of the shortwave will help spread an area of snow from west to east across the area late in the morning, continuing through the afternoon. Guidance suggests the highest snowfall (on the order of 2 to 4 inches) falls in northwest lower to ern upper. This is where the better dynamics and moisture will reside. Through the day slightly warmer air moves, pushing forecast soundings out of the DGZ. Omega is better during the late morning through mid afternoon, helping support better snow intensity, then this diminishes heading into the evening. A few snow showers may linger through Thursday night, but this is unlikely given the loss of mid level moisture and the continued warming through the night. Friday morning another compact weak low treks east out of the Dakotas. The exact track of this system seems a little uncertain as of now, but it looks to miss us to the northeast, with the best dynamics and moisture well removed from our area. Even so some light flurries and/or freezing drizzle may be possible through the afternoon. Then better snow chances return Friday night as profiles more fully saturate.

Temperatures rise through Thursday night into Friday thanks to WAA. Friday's highs are expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Through the weekend general troughiness takes over Ontario through the Great Lakes, with the potential for a strong nor'easter impacting the northeast. We remain in northwest flow late Saturday afternoon through Sunday, and colder low to midlevel air pours into the region behind the New England system. Increasing overlake instability will bring more chances for lake effect Saturday and Sunday. High pressure move in Sunday night into Monday, bringing a lull in lake effect intensity. After this there's potential for a strong system to ride up through the Ohio Valley, and while it's far out, we could see gusty winds and more synoptic snow as this crosses to our southeast. Even with the slight warm up on Saturday, the rest of the period will run a couple degrees below normal.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

WSW lake effect snow showers will impact the region into Wednesday morning and bringing heavier snow to the PLN terminal . conditions teetering back and forth from MVFR to LIFR. Lighter snow showers impact TVC and mbL while VFR weather is anticipated at APN.

WSW winds veer WNW on Wednesday and will push the heavier snow bands out of the PLN area at that juncture . with snow showers then diminishing through the day. Gustier winds also develop later tonight through Wednesday and will produce some blowing snow.

MARINE. Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Gusty winds will continue through this morning, gradually diminishing from west to east this afternoon and evening. Another period of small craft advisory producing winds expected to develop on Thursday, this time from the south and southeast, as weak low pressure moves into the northern Lakes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST today for MIZ021-099. WINTER STORM WARNING until noon EST today for MIZ016-017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ086. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ087. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	7 mi	34 min	SW 29	21°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	17 mi	59 min	WSW 8 G 24	20°F			1020.3 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	39 min	W 20 G 24	22°F			1020 hPa (+0.0)
KP58	46 mi	48 min	SW 6	22°F			1021.2 hPa	12°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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NW10 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	31 mi	63 min	W 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	20°F	8°F	61%	1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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