Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 282015 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 415 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

. Rain and a few thunderstorms tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: A few thunderstorms possible later this evening into the overnight hours. Stronger storms could produce hail.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Rather impressive early spring storm system continues to develop across the Plains/Midwest. Deepening short-wave/closed upper low is located over eastern Nebraska with a strong upper jet core extending from Texas up through the Midwest and across the Great Lakes and pronounced upper diffluent/divergence axis spreading into central Midwest region. 18Z surface analysis has attending surface low just into SW Iowa and warm front stretching eastward across Illinois/Indiana and Ohio. Strong low level backed flow coincident with building instability through that region has set the stage for severe weather over the next several hours.

Meanwhile, axis of widespread warm advection forced rainfall across the region earlier in the day has largely diminished, save for a few pockets of showers and perhaps a touch of drizzle. But . warm conveyor/moisture surge ahead of the deepening low has/is leading to our next expanding area of showers/storms up into the Midwest and lower lakes region.

Details: Short-wave impulse and attending surface low on track to further deepen/occlude while lifting up through the Midwest and into central Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Associated strong warm conveyor and upper level divergence forcing will spread widespread rainfall up into northern Michigan tonight along with the potential for some thunderstorms as elevated instability axis along and ahead of the occluding front pivots up through the region.

Severe weather potential tonight: No changes from the late morning update. Latest SPC Day One outlook maintains a marginal risk for elevated severe storms across roughly the southern third of the CWA, with the main threat large hail. That seems reasonable given limited/no surface based instability tonight but respectable 0-6KM deep layer shear in excess of 70 knots in the presence of some elevated instability.

Occluded boundary, pronounced dry slot and sharp cutoff to the precip will be swinging through the region early Sunday morning bringing a brief lull in precip for a few hours . save for spotty drizzle. Stacked surface and upper level low and associated vorticity center is expected to track across northern Lower Michigan/Straits region through the day and will bring another round of widespread showers across the region.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Perhaps a few slick spots developing by early Monday morning as lingering rain showers mix with and transition to snow showers, especially across eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern lower.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Sunday evening, well-advertised vertically stacked low pressure is expected to be situated across far northeast lower/northern Lake Huron . continuing to progress eastward into Ontario overnight and eventually into Quebec Monday morning. Lingering wrap around moisture bringing continued precip chances will be the rule through Sunday night before deep layer drier air returns as high pressure tries to gradually ooze into the region from the northwest. As a result, much more tranquil conditions expected locally to begin to the new work week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lingering precip chances Sunday night, including a possible transition to light snow. Temperature/cloud trends Monday into Tuesday.

As was alluded to above, wrap around moisture and continued synoptic support on the backside of the departing system should prove to be enough for lingering rain showers across the majority of the forecast area at the start of the period Sunday evening. Primary concern through the Sunday night time frame is the potential for a transition to snow showers as the column cools, primarily after midnight across parts of eastern upper and the interior highlands of northern lower. Not expecting much in the way of accumulation (perhaps a few tenths of an inch) given sfc temperatures near freezing or a degree or two above, but can't entirely rule out some slick spots developing by Monday morning. Latest trends suggest overall precip chances wane early Monday morning as a result of decreased support aloft and drying through the mid-upper levels. However, there may be enough shallow moisture (sub -10C) to continue a few spotty showers or drizzle through mid-late morning before model soundings take on a more inverted-V flavor through the low levels, likely eventually resulting in just lingering low clouds through the remainder of the day. High temperatures Monday expected to fall some 10 or so degrees below Sunday's readings . ranging from near 40 to the low 40s across the forecast area.

Relatively tranquil weather returns across all of northern Michigan for the remainder of the forecast period through midweek. Will keep the inherited dry forecast going for now, although there are some signs that this weekend's system eventually stalls over the Northeast before washing out with lingering mid-level energy perhaps retrograding a bit late Tuesday. This may bring a bit of deeper moisture back into the region from the east, perhaps resulting in a few showers/drizzle across parts of the area, but confidence in this idea is low at this time. High temperatures Tuesday climb a few degrees over Monday . in the mid 40s for most.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now, although sporadic snow chances look possible at times mid-late week as renewed troughing across the center of the CONUS brings below normal temps.

Initial precip chances through the extended arrive late in the day Wednesday/Wednesday night as mid-level energy and an attendant surface reflection barrel across the northern plains into the northern Great Lakes. Currently, this system looks to fall as primarily rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see some snow mix in during the overnight hours across the typically cooler areas/higher terrain. Trends beyond this suggest renewed troughing across the Great Lakes becomes prevalent through the remainder of the forecast period with below normal temperatures and any weak perturbations rippling through the flow bringing the possibility of rain/snow showers.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

VFR conditions holding on across norther Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although lower CIGS are just off to our south (south of M-55 corridor) and creeping northward. VFR conditions will likely hold across northern Lower Michigan through the afternoon, except for mbL where MVFR CIGS will remain.

Next round of widespread rainfall will spread up into the region starting early this evening and will lead to conditions deteriorating to IFR for tonight and remaining that way into Sunday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across northern Lower Michigan, mainly between 04Z and 12Z.

Finally, LLWS is anticipated at the terminal sites tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Gusty SE winds will continue to ramp up tonight into Sunday morning as a storm system deepens and tracks into Wisconsin. Winds veer southwesterly a weaken a bit on Sunday as the system moves through the tip of the mitt/Straits region. But winds further veer northwesterly and increase again Sunday night.

Small craft advisories are in effect through Sunday morning to address gusty SE winds. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday night into Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for MIZ088-096-097. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	7 mi	46 min	NNE 18 G 21	37°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	26 min	NE 23 G 27	38°F			1009.8 hPa (+0.3)
KP58	46 mi	35 min	NE 14	38°F			1010.1 hPa	34°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	31 mi	31 min	NNE 8	10.00 mi	Overcast	42°F	32°F	68%	1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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