Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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Fxus63 kapx 221748 afdapx area forecast discussion national weather service gaylord mi 148 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019 Update Issued at 1042 am edt Thu aug 22 2019 surface high pressure is centered across northwest ontario with ridging extending southward into northern michigan. Visible satellite imagery indicated that the mostly clear skies earlier had morphed into partly cloudy skies due to instabilty driven cu formation. The question for today is how cloudy it will get and whether or not there is enough moisture to pop off any showers. I like the ongoing forecast of increasing instability CU leading to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Looking at model soundings I do not think moisture is anywhere near deep enough to support shower activity though so have yanked that from the forecast. Ongoing highs ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s for the most part, with perhaps a couple of mid 70s down by saginaw bay due to downsloping. Near term (today and tonight) issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019 A taste of fall with a few rain showers... high impact weather potential: none. Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight analysis reveals a fairly deep parent mid level low sliding eastward through ontario into quebec with suppressed heights down through the great lakes. A couple of short-waves noted rotating around the parent low. One moving quickly across SE ontario. But a second more substantial wave trough is dropping through northern minnesota along with an area of more substantial cloud cover. At the surface, a large expanse of high pressure extends from central canada into the midwest and edging into the great lakes. Nw flow with this system continues to pull substantially cooler air into the region. Core of fairly chilly air (+4c h8) is poised just north of lake superior and will be descending into the northern lakes region through today. Primary forecast concerns: cloud trends as well as shower chances... Today and tonight. Band of thicker high cloud cover has been streaming across the southern half of the forecast area through the night but getting suppressed southward in time. So it does appear that most of the forecast area will start the day with mainly sunny skies. But, upstream short-wave trough and area of moisture clouds will be skirting down through the region later this morning and through the afternoon. Coupled with increasingly cool air aloft daytime heating and modest background larger scale forcing, we will see a decent increase in cloud cover later this morning and especially this afternoon. In addition, some high-res guidance solutions hint at the possibility of a few showers in parts of NE lower michigan, particularly down toward saginaw bay where temperatures will be warmest and there is a signal for stronger low level convergence to develop. With that in mind, I have introduced some low end (isolated) showers to that area this afternoon. Tonight... We lose the diurnal component to the cloud cover this evening and any showers as well. However, one more "wing" of vorticity will slide down through northern michigan as core of cool air (+3c to +6c h8 temps) makes it's final push down into the region by Friday morning. Enough to produce lake clouds and probably some light lake induced rain showers over portions of nw and NE lower michigan on a northerly mean low level flow. Have added that to the forecast as well. Elsewhere, a chilly night is in store with many areas dropping through the 40s and likely some upper 30s for the cold inland locations. Short term (Friday through Saturday) issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019 high impact weather potential: none. Pattern synopsis forecast: a mid-level trough axis, attendant to vertically stacked low pressure east of james bay, will cross the forecast area early Friday followed by increasing heights aloft Friday evening through the upcoming weekend. Only potential wrinkle to the short term forecast period arrives during the day Friday in the form of a weak subtle shortwave expected to round

the base of aforementioned larger scale parent troughing. This wave, combined with plenty of over-lake instability, may prove to be enough to kick of a few isolated to widely scattered showers across parts of the forecast area. Otherwise, below normal temperatures rebound a bit for Saturday with high pressure becoming settled directly overhead, ultimately leading to tranquil sensible weather conditions. Primary forecast concerns challenges: below normal temperatures, along with isolated to scattered showers Friday? as was alluded to above, Friday's focus will revolve around a subtle mid-level perturbation that's expected to ripple overhead around the periphery of larger scale troughing. H8 temps progged to range between +4 to 5 c is expected to lead to plenty of over-lake instability as delta TS range from 15-17 c. This increased instability, along with pockets of weak synoptic support, may prove to be enough to kick off a few isolated showers during the day Friday, primary east of interstate 75 across northern lower michigan. Lesser chances west of 75 & across eastern upper. Not expecting much in the way of QPF - maybe a couple hundredths in a few locations? Otherwise, just some increased cloudiness at times with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s across the forecast area... Some 5-10 degrees below late august normals. Mid-upper level heights begin to rise Friday night through Saturday with little in the way of sensible weather expected as high pressure becomes centered squarely overhead. Lots of sunshine is expected with chilly Friday night lows ranging from near 40 in the coolest spots to the low 50s near the coasts before rebounding to the mid 70s across northern michigan for Saturday's high temperatures. Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday) issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019 high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms possible early next week. Quiet weather continues across northern michigan to wrap up the weekend before a more active pattern sets up across the midsection of the country next week. Moisture and instability will be increasing across the region Monday into Tuesday with accompanying scattered shower and storm chances arriving across parts of northern michigan as early as Monday afternoon, but more so Monday night through Tuesday. Lots of uncertainty at this point regarding detailed timing, shower storm coverage and intensity details, but from a pattern recognition standpoint, it looks like a set up featuring high shear low CAPE as the majority of instability remains displaced well to our south. Worth monitoring the details through the upcoming weekend. Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon) issued at 136 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019 mainly just sctVFR clouds through the TAF period. Could see a bit of lake enhancement tonight leading to bknVFR clouds and perhaps a few light lake effect rain showers... Mainly at apn and tvc. Winds will be a little gusty this afternoon out of the north and perhaps again Friday afternoon. Marine Issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019 gusty NW winds are diminishing, but still into small craft territory across parts of northern lake huron. Plan to trim the advisories for whitefish and st. Marys river with the early morning issuance, but leave the NE lower michigan coastline headlines intact through 8 am (as scheduled). Some gustiness will be found on the lakes through the day, but winds and waves should remain below small craft criteria. No marine headlines anticipated at this time for the balance of the nearshore forecast. Apx watches warnings advisories Mi... None. Lh... None. Lm... None. Ls... None. Update... As near term... Ba short term... Mg long term... Mg aviation... As marine... Ba

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45163	6 mi	31 min	ESE 3.9 G 5.8	70°F	74°F	1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	7 mi	71 min	ESE 2.9 G 5.1	64°F			1017.6 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	17 mi	71 min	ESE 4.1 G 8	70°F			1017.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	51 min	N 4.1 G 8.9	66°F			1016.6 hPa (-0.3)
KP58	46 mi	60 min	5.1	69°F			1016.4 hPa	53°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	31 mi	56 min	WNW 8	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	72°F	47°F	42%	1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map and Satellite Images

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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.