Marine Forecasts

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI

   Hourly   EDIT   Help

---

Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 011440 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1040 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1036 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Forecast is going as expected . broad upper level trough overhead with a shortwave moving through the forecast area. This shortwave and associated moisture is producing showers over northern lower Michigan. Precipitation totals are only around a trace to 0.05" so far and should continue to produce those amounts throughout the day No threat so far of thunder or small hail. but it could become more of a threat later this afternoon with diurnal heating over portions of northeast lower. No severe weather is expected. Will remain cloudy and cool . with temperatures only reaching into the upper 40s to near 50 at this time.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.Cool, damp and showery.

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. A few thunderstorms possible again across parts of northern Lower Michigan. Non- severe, but any deep convection could produce small hail/graupel.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale upper troughing remains prominent across the Great Lakes anchored by sharp upper level ridging along the west coast. Several short-waves continue to pinwheel through the mean trough . one exiting through the eastern lakes and a second digging southeastward through Minnesota/Iowa. Baggy surface low pressure also analyzed across the Great Lakes with W-E oriented cold front (and surge of the real cold air) is working southward across Lake Superior with H8 temps dropping off below 0C behind the boundary. Mean low level NW flow lake induced showers continue across northern Michigan at this hour. Now just awaiting the arrival of the cold front to ramp things up once again.

The overall pattern changes very little over the next several days. Cold front will slide through the region today setting the stage for several days of highs in the 40s and 50s for northern Michigan, along with frost/freeze conditions.

Details: As mentioned, cold front will slide down through eastern Upper Michigan this morning and through northern Lower Michigan late this morning through mid afternoon or so. Colder air spilling south, low level convergence along with f-gen/QG forcing for ascent along the boundary will ramp up shower coverage as the front moves southward through the region. Daytime heating will only help the cause for shower development. But overall instability will not be nearly as good as yesterday, perhaps a couple hundred J/Kg MUCAPE along and south of the boundary and confined mostly across the southern half of the CWA with the highest probabilities toward Saginaw Bay. Will keep thunder in the forecast for those areas, and of course with the low freezing levels, any deep convection could produce some small hail or graupel.

Subsidence and modest deep layer drying develop across the region tonight behind the front with a fairly substantial subsidence inversion developing around 7K feet . which will cap lake convection to some extent. Nonetheless, given plenty of low level over water instability as H8 temps continue to drop to the neg 3C to neg 6C range by Friday morning, northerly flow lake induced showers will persist . primarily through eastern Upper Michigan and toward the Michigan and Huron coasts . while inland areas clear out cloud cover to varying degrees. Continuing cold advection and thinning cloud cover will drive temperatures down into the low 30s overnight. But given a bit of a gradient wind that remains, unclear how much frost we see across those inland areas. Will leave it the day shift to determine whether or not any frost advisory may be warranted.

Finally, with temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 30s, have to also consider the possibilities of a little bit of snow falling with showers that manage to get far enough inland. Tough call this time of year as surface temps will tend to "pop back up" as any lake clouds/showers move over an area. That said, some snow or rain/snow mix might be possible across eastern Upper MI, and into the higher terrain areas of northern Lower MI . such as around CAD/Lake City/Atlanta . etc. Shouldn't amount to much, but I will have it in the forecast.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Hard freeze Friday night

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern CONUS Friday, slowly pivoting towards the Atlantic as upper-level ridging approaches the Great Lakes from central Canada. Subsidence aloft provided at the ridge/trough inflection point will build surface high pressure from southern Canada into the region through the weekend.

Forecast/Details:

N/NNW winds will continue to fuel lake effect rain shower chances across portions of northern Michigan through Friday afternoon. While forecast soundings display inverted-V near-surface profiles, otherwise deeper moisture w/ inversion heights near 700 mb should help at least some precipitation in reaching the surface. Aforementioned high pressure should bring a temporary halt to precip chances as the pressure gradient relaxes, leading to weaker winds across the area Friday night. While lake-induced cloud cover is still expected, especially near the lakeshores, low temperatures look to dip into the upper 20s for many across interior portions of northern lower and eastern upper. Should less cloud cover materialize, those near the lakes could see temperatures drop near freezing Friday night as well. To note, should lake effect precip linger into the evening/overnight hours, some elevated interior areas could see a few snowflakes as temperatures begin to drop. Precip chances return to the area Saturday night as a shortwave rotates overhead, providing necessary ascent aloft. Overnight temperatures in the mid 30s across interior areas could once again bring the chance to see a few flakes before quickly melting.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Amplified upper-level troughing should continue to pivot across the region towards New England on Sunday before ridging temporarily slides overhead early next week. Ascent provided aloft is expected to support rain showers with a few flakes of snow possibly mixing in across elevated areas early on Sunday before departing east by the late afternoon/evening timeframe. High pressure builds in early next week underneath aforementioned ridging, muting precip chances by Monday. A relatively strong trough may dig into the Great lakes towards the middle of next week, supporting a cyclone to traverse the region and bring the next bout of rain to northern Michigan. After this system passes, NW winds behind would likely support lake effect precip across portions of northern Michigan heading into next weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 631 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Cold front will slide down through northern Lower Michigan today bringing even cooler air into the region. Combined with daytime heating and over lake instability, this will result in showers again expanding across the region this morning into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible once again, but mainly across northeast Lower Michigan and toward Saginaw Bay. Conditions will likely teeter between VFR and MVFR through the day as showers move through.

Shower coverage diminishes tonight. But lake induced showers will continue to impact areas toward the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron coast, including TVC/MBL and APN.

MARINE. Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Gusty northwest to northerly winds will continue through tonight, with small craft advisory conditions anticipated in most nearshore areas. Winds/waves will diminish heading into Friday and we should finally turn headline free for the next few days.

Waterspouts remain possible on the Great Lakes through tonight, and possibly into Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for LHZ349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . TL NEAR TERM . ADAM SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . BA MARINE . ADAM

---

Weather Reporting Stations

   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map

Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
45163	6 mi	38 min	WSW 12 G 14	59°F		1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	7 mi	38 min	WSW 11 G 17	56°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	17 mi	38 min	W 8.9 G 13	59°F			1010.8 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	18 min	W 11 G 13	55°F			1010.5 hPa (+0.3)
KP58	46 mi	27 min	W 8 G 18	60°F			1010.3 hPa	43°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

Last 24hr

SW18 G24

W10 G15

W11

SW8 G12

SW6 G9

NW4

SW5

W10

SW9 G12

SW7 G13

W7 G10

W8 G11

W6 G11

W5 G8

SW7 G10

SW8

SW7

SW9 G12

SW10 G14

SW8 G11

W7 G11

W11 G14

SW11 G15

NW7 G12

1 day ago

SW8 G13

W6

SW5 G8

SW6 G9

SW2

SW4

S4

S5

SW6

SW8 G11

SW4

SW4

SW5

SW4

SW8

SW8 G14

SW9 G13

SW10 G13

SW9 G14

SW9 G14

SW11 G16

SW9 G13

SW14 G18

SW10 G17

2 days ago

NW3 G6

NW3 G7

NW9

NW8

NW8 G12

NW6 G9

W5

W5

SW6

SW8 G12

SW8

SW9 G12

SW9 G12

SW9 G12

W8 G11

SW9

W9

SW8

SW7 G10

SW9 G12

SW10 G13

W9 G12

W6 G10

SW9 G14

---

Airport Reports

    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.

Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	31 mi	23 min	WNW 8	10.00 mi	Partly Cloudy	59°F	44°F	57%	1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

2 PM

3 PM

4 PM

5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

11 PM

12 AM

1 AM

2 AM

3 AM

4 AM

5 AM

6 AM

7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

10 AM

11 AM

12 PM

1 PM

Last 24hr

W7

W9 G14

SW9

W10 G15

W6

W7

W4

W6

W6

W8

W8

W7

W8

W6

SW6

SW6

SW6

SW6

SW6

SW8

SW5

W8

W10 G15

W12 G16

1 day ago

SW10 G16

SW14 G18

SW10 G16

SW9

S5

S6

S5

S4

W4

W7

W3

SW6

SW6

SW5

SW8

SW7

SW7

SW7

SW7

SW6

W8

SW8

SW5

SW8

2 days ago

NW5

NW7

W6

NW4

Calm

W3

S3

SW5

SW5

SW5

SW8

SW7

SW6

SW6

SW5

SW6

SW7

SW6

SW6

SW7

SW6

SW9

SW12

W13

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help

---

Tide / Current Tables for

   EDIT      (on/off)   Help

---

Weather Map

       (on/off)   Help Weather Map

---

GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

---

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

   (on/off)   Help

---

Cookie Policy: This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser. Privacy Policy: I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. . NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway. Disclaimer: The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.