Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday August 22, 2019 2:50 PM EDT (18:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:03PMMoonset 12:34PM Illumination 53% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 1000 Am Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Rest of today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of light showers. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of waterspouts in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201908222115;;035265 FZUS53 KDTX 221400 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1000 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-222115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 221748
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
148 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Update
Issued at 1042 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
surface high pressure is centered across northwest ontario with
ridging extending southward into northern michigan. Visible
satellite imagery indicated that the mostly clear skies earlier
had morphed into partly cloudy skies due to instabilty driven cu
formation. The question for today is how cloudy it will get and
whether or not there is enough moisture to pop off any showers.

I like the ongoing forecast of increasing instability CU leading
to partly to mostly cloudy skies this afternoon. Looking at model
soundings I do not think moisture is anywhere near deep enough to
support shower activity though so have yanked that from the
forecast. Ongoing highs ranging from the mid 60s to the low 70s
for the most part, with perhaps a couple of mid 70s down by
saginaw bay due to downsloping.

Near term (today and tonight)
issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019

A taste of fall with a few rain showers...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: overnight analysis reveals a fairly
deep parent mid level low sliding eastward through ontario into
quebec with suppressed heights down through the great lakes. A
couple of short-waves noted rotating around the parent low. One
moving quickly across SE ontario. But a second more substantial
wave trough is dropping through northern minnesota along with an
area of more substantial cloud cover.

At the surface, a large expanse of high pressure extends from
central canada into the midwest and edging into the great lakes.

Nw flow with this system continues to pull substantially cooler
air into the region. Core of fairly chilly air (+4c h8) is poised
just north of lake superior and will be descending into the
northern lakes region through today.

Primary forecast concerns: cloud trends as well as shower
chances... Today and tonight.

Band of thicker high cloud cover has been streaming across the
southern half of the forecast area through the night but getting
suppressed southward in time. So it does appear that most of the
forecast area will start the day with mainly sunny skies. But,
upstream short-wave trough and area of moisture clouds will be
skirting down through the region later this morning and through
the afternoon. Coupled with increasingly cool air aloft daytime
heating and modest background larger scale forcing, we will see a
decent increase in cloud cover later this morning and especially
this afternoon. In addition, some high-res guidance solutions
hint at the possibility of a few showers in parts of NE lower
michigan, particularly down toward saginaw bay where temperatures
will be warmest and there is a signal for stronger low level
convergence to develop. With that in mind, I have introduced some
low end (isolated) showers to that area this afternoon.

Tonight... We lose the diurnal component to the cloud cover this
evening and any showers as well. However, one more "wing" of
vorticity will slide down through northern michigan as core of
cool air (+3c to +6c h8 temps) makes it's final push down into the
region by Friday morning. Enough to produce lake clouds and
probably some light lake induced rain showers over portions of nw
and NE lower michigan on a northerly mean low level flow. Have
added that to the forecast as well.

Elsewhere, a chilly night is in store with many areas dropping
through the 40s and likely some upper 30s for the cold inland
locations.

Short term (Friday through Saturday)
issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: a mid-level trough axis, attendant to
vertically stacked low pressure east of james bay, will cross the
forecast area early Friday followed by increasing heights aloft
Friday evening through the upcoming weekend. Only potential
wrinkle to the short term forecast period arrives during the day
Friday in the form of a weak subtle shortwave expected to round
the base of aforementioned larger scale parent troughing. This
wave, combined with plenty of over-lake instability, may prove to
be enough to kick of a few isolated to widely scattered showers
across parts of the forecast area. Otherwise, below normal
temperatures rebound a bit for Saturday with high pressure
becoming settled directly overhead, ultimately leading to tranquil
sensible weather conditions.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: below normal temperatures,
along with isolated to scattered showers Friday?
as was alluded to above, Friday's focus will revolve around a subtle
mid-level perturbation that's expected to ripple overhead around
the periphery of larger scale troughing. H8 temps progged to
range between +4 to 5 c is expected to lead to plenty of over-lake
instability as delta TS range from 15-17 c. This increased
instability, along with pockets of weak synoptic support, may
prove to be enough to kick off a few isolated showers during the
day Friday, primary east of interstate 75 across northern lower
michigan. Lesser chances west of 75 & across eastern upper. Not
expecting much in the way of QPF - maybe a couple hundredths in a
few locations? Otherwise, just some increased cloudiness at times
with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s
across the forecast area... Some 5-10 degrees below late august
normals.

Mid-upper level heights begin to rise Friday night through Saturday
with little in the way of sensible weather expected as high pressure
becomes centered squarely overhead. Lots of sunshine is expected
with chilly Friday night lows ranging from near 40 in the coolest
spots to the low 50s near the coasts before rebounding to the mid
70s across northern michigan for Saturday's high temperatures.

Long term (Saturday night through Wednesday)
issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
high impact weather potential: scattered thunderstorms possible
early next week.

Quiet weather continues across northern michigan to wrap up the
weekend before a more active pattern sets up across the midsection
of the country next week. Moisture and instability will be
increasing across the region Monday into Tuesday with accompanying
scattered shower and storm chances arriving across parts of northern
michigan as early as Monday afternoon, but more so Monday night
through Tuesday. Lots of uncertainty at this point regarding
detailed timing, shower storm coverage and intensity details, but
from a pattern recognition standpoint, it looks like a set up
featuring high shear low CAPE as the majority of instability remains
displaced well to our south. Worth monitoring the details through
the upcoming weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 136 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
mainly just sctVFR clouds through the TAF period. Could see a bit
of lake enhancement tonight leading to bknVFR clouds and perhaps
a few light lake effect rain showers... Mainly at apn and tvc.

Winds will be a little gusty this afternoon out of the north and
perhaps again Friday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 220 am edt Thu aug 22 2019
gusty NW winds are diminishing, but still into small craft
territory across parts of northern lake huron. Plan to trim the
advisories for whitefish and st. Marys river with the early
morning issuance, but leave the NE lower michigan coastline
headlines intact through 8 am (as scheduled).

Some gustiness will be found on the lakes through the day, but
winds and waves should remain below small craft criteria. No
marine headlines anticipated at this time for the balance of the
nearshore forecast.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... As
near term... Ba
short term... Mg
long term... Mg
aviation... As
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45163 6 mi31 min ESE 3.9 G 5.8 70°F 74°F1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi71 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 1017.6 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi71 min ESE 4.1 G 8 70°F 1017.6 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi51 min N 4.1 G 8.9 66°F 1016.6 hPa (-0.3)
KP58 46 mi60 min 5.1 69°F 1016.4 hPa53°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi56 minWNW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F47°F42%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7NE10NE10NE6NE3NE4NW3N9N4CalmW3NW4CalmW6W4W4W3NW4NW9NW8N8N10N6N10
1 day agoSW6S5S3SE5S5W4S3SW3SW3CalmCalmW3CalmW3CalmSW3CalmCalmW6W8W6SW6CalmCalm
2 days agoSE10
G14
S8S7S9S5SE5SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SW6E6S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.