Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 282029 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 329 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

. Cold .

Ridging connects two surface high centers, one over far northern Lk Huron and the 2nd near Kansas City. As we get behind the Lk Huron, our light low level becomes more s to sw-erly as we head into tonight. Synoptic-scale moisture is very much lacking, and any clouds/precip will originate from the Great Lakes. A prominent band on Lake MI extends all the way from Chicagoland to Beaver Isl, and the latter is seeing very occasional IFR vsbys in snow. Frankfort is only 7SM in -SHSN. Some westerly flow is still lingering in eastern upper MI, and a few snow showers remain possible in nw Chippewa Co. Better banding is offshore of ne lower MI.

The Lake MI band will gradually drift onshore into the Dunes/Frankfort/ mbL area this afternoon and early evening, but suffer significant disruption as it does so. Expecting late afternoon and evening accums of an inch or less, perhaps a little more on Beaver Isl. There is a chance of snow showers at the end of this fetch (Ltl Trav Bay area) thru the night, but inversion heights are getting a shallower, and the airmass remains very dry.

Activity from Superior has only a few more hours to impact Whitefish Pt before southerly flow takes it offshore.

Southerly flow takes longest to arrive on Huron. The dominant band, amped up by land breeze convergence tonight, will eventually drift n and nw-ward, with a mix of light s and se-erly synoptic flow developing. Overnight, will bring scattered -SHSN into the DeTour/Drummond Isl area.

Warm advection at 850mb and suppressed inversion heights will leave a bit more moisture trapped beneath the inversion. Patchy stratocu is expected to expand into more of northern MI tonight. That is the only hindrance to another night of strong radiational cooling, but it should be enough to keep the bottom from falling out. Have still lowered mins below guidance: single digits above zero near the nw lower MI coast, single digits below zero elsewhere. Best chance for going colder that -10f is in the lower Au Sable Valley, as well as in far western Chip/Mack Cos. Wind chills lower to -10 to -15f in the cold spots.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Monday) Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Lake enhanced snowfall across NW Lower Saturday night . otherwise, minimal attm .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Main trough axis aloft is just about ready to move through the region this morning . behind the departing niblet that brought snow to the region yesterday . with an additional weak niblet of energy diving south into the Great Lakes this morning . and stronger/broader area in the trough axis further south, evidenced by broad cyclonic swirl in the flow on satellite across the Mid Mississippi Valley. Jet across the southeastern US is restrengthening in the base of the trough as thermal gradient tightens across that region in advance of the trough axis . with strengthening height falls across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Surface low appears to be developing in the Ohio Valley in the vicinity of these height falls . along lingering surface cold front now to our south, which brought the snow and cold weather to our region . as surface high pressure largely settles into the Great Lakes under some weak ridging aloft, more noted at 700mb or below (save for the usual signals of lake aggregate effects in the pressure pattern over the Great Lakes, bifurcating the incoming surface high over Michigan). Baroclinic zone extends northwestward along the perimeter of the troughing aloft back into the Canadian Rockies (as usual) . as persistent ridge in the vicinity of the West Coast over the last several days to few weeks progresses inland ahead of a couple loosely aligned niblets of upstream energy . one in the southern stream of the flow off the coast of California . and another area in the northern stream of the flow in southern Alaska that is becoming a little more nebulous as it fights against the top of the ridge. Bulk of the moisture (albeit meager attm) in the flow across the US continues to be from the Pacific . as niblets continue to send moisture eastward over the ridge . though some slight upticks are noted in satellite imagery today ahead of the digging trough axis in the southeastern US off the Gulf.

Going forward . will look for trough axis to depart . leaving us briefly under ridging aloft ahead of another little niblet of energy due to swing in during the day Saturday . though this dampens with time as it gets absorbed into the flow. Much bigger focus for the weekend will be on the trough axis lifting up through New England Saturday into Saturday night. Another niblet slides through the flow across the Midwest Saturday night into Sunday . with additional energy to slide in Sunday night. Flow briefly turns zonal for the start of the next work week . as upper low retreats northward from Hudson Bay for a time . and retrogrades . as that shortwave trough in the Gulf of Alaska today begins to move eastward. Combination of these two features should result in a broad area of troughing aloft digging into western North America for a time early week . developing ridging in the northern stream of the flow across the Midwest/Great Lakes ahead of it.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Potential for snow through the period .

Winds Saturday should be relatively light overall . particularly early in the day, as effects of high pressure should lead to more variable/mesoscale-driven flow patterns. As next clipper system approaches ahead of an upstream niblet of energy . will look for winds to become more southwesterly with time through the day into Saturday night in response Once the system drops through. will look for winds to shift to more northwesterly . perhaps even as early as early Sunday morning, depending on fropa timing . remaining light overall right on through Sunday night . as an even weaker niblet passes by to our south with little to no surface reflection in the pressure pattern. The next system for midweek will already be taking shape upstream across the Plains by Monday . resulting in winds becoming southeasterly with time Monday . and increasing to some degree later in the day . as the system approaches.

With respect to snowfall potential for the weekend . looks as though best forcing aloft comes ahead of the niblet of energy Saturday night . though attm . it appears rather meager at best. That being said . similar to the last few/several clipper systems . southwesterly flow ahead of the system will likely result in some southwest flow lake enhancement of the synoptic warm advection snowfall later Saturday into Saturday night (given 925mb temps still running around -10C over the open waters . sufficient for overlake instability to be present (a delta T of 7C from 925mb is sufficient, fyi)). Do see signals of this in low-level convergence guidance . particularly along the Lake Michigan coast of NW Lower . which is mainly ice free south of Little Traverse Bay attm. This convergence should become more focused ahead of the surface front and trough aloft . with mass divergence ahead of the system also adding to the upward motion component.

Best mid-level moisture moves in by evening overtop already present boundary layer moisture (potentially related to a diurnal stratocumulus deck developing during the day as the marine mixed layer gets advected inland with those southwest/westerly winds) . such that I suspect top-down saturation will lead to seeder- feeder processes . and allow snowfall to start a little sooner than if we were totally dry in the boundary layer ahead of this system. Of particular note, as was mentioned earlier . with southwest flow boundary layer convergence ongoing . will look for any existing southwest flow lake-induced bands to blossom as mid-level moisture encroaches on the area, as we've seen the last few events. Even so . could see some mesoscale-driven lake bands early in the day along the coast of NW Lower . perhaps similar to today . which may be something to keep an eye on going forward, given the otherwise generally light flow allowing land breezes to largely prevail.

Snow should continue into Sunday morning, but should largely dwindle for most areas through the day . as better mid-level moisture departs, along with the majority of forcing. Some light lake effect may linger early . though overlake instability appears to be largely waning overall, despite temps remaining just barely sufficient. Forcing should be weak to non-existent behind this system . despite niblet passing to our south (better signals for forcing remain to our south with it) . given broad ridging and subsidence overtaking the region ahead of the more noteworthy system that will be the focus of the extended That being said. guidance does show some additional moisture dropping in from the north Sunday evening . well north of the niblet across Illinois . and away from better forcing. Still . with warm advection remaining in play Monday ahead of the next system . some flakes may remain in the air going forward, especially across the UP and perhaps out across Lake Michigan, closer to the better and deeper moisture . though better chances appear to hold off till Monday evening/night for all areas.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

High Impact Weather Potential: Moderate . watching potentially impactful system for early-mid next week . and perhaps beyond . ?

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Going into Monday night . will be watching for a niblet of shortwave energy to swing through the flow ahead of the main longwave trough axis . which should result in the beginnings of the potentially impactful system we're watching for early-mid next week. Niblet appears to be lifting as it swings through our region into Tuesday morning . associated with a strengthening surface low pressure ~1000mb . which currently appears to pass to our northwest, per deterministic guidance, which is actually in rather decent coherence attm for day 4 (and even ensemble guidance is similarly coherent, though uncertainty does increase beyond Monday night). This should put us on the (relatively) warm side of the system . potentially leading to a multitude of impacts, including: precipitation type issues, potential snow melt (if we get warm enough), and perhaps winds (noting a strengthening pressure gradient with this system) . though warm advection ahead of the system may help to mitigate that to some degree. Though there is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of this system . could be quite messy going forward for the middle of the week . with additional impacts possible behind the system . as signals point to a return to the same old, same old pattern of troughing across the central/eastern US that we've been experiencing for quite some time now. Will also have to keep an eye out for additional development along the baroclinic zone once it is past us . and depending on how far away from us it gets . we could have some additional activity to deal with later in the week . though there is still a fair bit of uncertainty yet.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 1242 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

High pressure overhead is providing relatively quiet wx. Lake- induced cigs will be mostly VFR, but some MVFR cigs are possible this afternoon (APN especially) and again toward Sat afternoon. Some -SHSN are possible at mbL/TVC/PLN this afternoon and evening.

Light winds, becoming southerly Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Jan 28 2022

Mainly light winds for a little while, for once. A weak area of high pressure will depart across Lk Huron, and a southerly breeze develops behind it. This will pick up some on Lake MI Saturday afternoon/evening out of the sw, but winds/waves look to stay a bit below advisory criteria.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI	7 mi	59 min	NE 8G8.9	13°F			1025.7 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI	17 mi	59 min	E 6G8.9	14°F			1025.7 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI	18 mi	39 min	ENE 2.9G4.1	14°F			1025.1 hPa (-0.3)
KP58	46 mi	44 min	N 8.9	16°F			1026.5 hPa	9°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI

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Last 24 hr

SW10 G14

W8 G12

NW15

NW15

NW13 G23

NW13 G18

NW11 G18

NW12 G18

NW11 G17

N11 G15

N14 G21

N19 G23

N18

N16 G21

N13 G17

N15 G19

N12 G17

N11 G15

N11 G16

N13 G17

N16 G20

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NE11 G17

1 day ago

S9

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S12 G16

S13 G17

S13 G18

S17 G23

SW17 G21

SW13 G18

SW16 G20

SW14 G19

SW17 G22

S19 G24

S14 G22

S17 G22

S12 G15

SW13 G19

SW16 G20

SW13 G19

SW10 G14

SW14 G20

W13 G18

SW11 G18

2 days ago

SW5

SW4

W4

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W6

NW12 G16

W8 G14

W9 G12

W8 G13

W9 G13

W9 G14

W11 G15

W13 G16

W10 G14

W10 G13

W10

W10

W11 G15

W10 G14

W10 G14

W7 G10

SW11 G15

SW9 G12

S9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	31 mi	44 min	ENE 4	10.00 mi	Fair	12°F	2°F	63%	1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

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Last 24 hr

NW11 G14

NW11 G16

NW13 G18

NW11 G14

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NW7

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1 day ago

SW10 G14

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SW13 G21

SW17 G20

SW15 G22

SW18 G23

SW14 G22

SW20 G24

SW13 G22

SW17 G22

SW18 G22

SW16 G23

SW11 G16

SW13 G17

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SW14 G19

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SW12 G17

W15

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N15 G18

2 days ago

SW3

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0

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0

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SW11 G14

SW10

SW13 G17

S13 G17

SW11

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