Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 7:17PM Thursday October 1, 2020 1:18 PM EDT (17:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:37PMMoonset 6:03AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 941 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Friday afternoon...
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Isolated showers late in the morning, then numerous showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. A chance of waterspouts in the morning. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202010012100;;644844 FZUS53 KDTX 011341 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 941 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-012100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 011440 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1040 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1036 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Forecast is going as expected . broad upper level trough overhead with a shortwave moving through the forecast area. This shortwave and associated moisture is producing showers over northern lower Michigan. Precipitation totals are only around a trace to 0.05" so far and should continue to produce those amounts throughout the day No threat so far of thunder or small hail. but it could become more of a threat later this afternoon with diurnal heating over portions of northeast lower. No severe weather is expected. Will remain cloudy and cool . with temperatures only reaching into the upper 40s to near 50 at this time.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

.Cool, damp and showery.

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. A few thunderstorms possible again across parts of northern Lower Michigan. Non- severe, but any deep convection could produce small hail/graupel.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale upper troughing remains prominent across the Great Lakes anchored by sharp upper level ridging along the west coast. Several short-waves continue to pinwheel through the mean trough . one exiting through the eastern lakes and a second digging southeastward through Minnesota/Iowa. Baggy surface low pressure also analyzed across the Great Lakes with W-E oriented cold front (and surge of the real cold air) is working southward across Lake Superior with H8 temps dropping off below 0C behind the boundary. Mean low level NW flow lake induced showers continue across northern Michigan at this hour. Now just awaiting the arrival of the cold front to ramp things up once again.

The overall pattern changes very little over the next several days. Cold front will slide through the region today setting the stage for several days of highs in the 40s and 50s for northern Michigan, along with frost/freeze conditions.

Details: As mentioned, cold front will slide down through eastern Upper Michigan this morning and through northern Lower Michigan late this morning through mid afternoon or so. Colder air spilling south, low level convergence along with f-gen/QG forcing for ascent along the boundary will ramp up shower coverage as the front moves southward through the region. Daytime heating will only help the cause for shower development. But overall instability will not be nearly as good as yesterday, perhaps a couple hundred J/Kg MUCAPE along and south of the boundary and confined mostly across the southern half of the CWA with the highest probabilities toward Saginaw Bay. Will keep thunder in the forecast for those areas, and of course with the low freezing levels, any deep convection could produce some small hail or graupel.

Subsidence and modest deep layer drying develop across the region tonight behind the front with a fairly substantial subsidence inversion developing around 7K feet . which will cap lake convection to some extent. Nonetheless, given plenty of low level over water instability as H8 temps continue to drop to the neg 3C to neg 6C range by Friday morning, northerly flow lake induced showers will persist . primarily through eastern Upper Michigan and toward the Michigan and Huron coasts . while inland areas clear out cloud cover to varying degrees. Continuing cold advection and thinning cloud cover will drive temperatures down into the low 30s overnight. But given a bit of a gradient wind that remains, unclear how much frost we see across those inland areas. Will leave it the day shift to determine whether or not any frost advisory may be warranted.

Finally, with temperatures dipping into the lower to middle 30s, have to also consider the possibilities of a little bit of snow falling with showers that manage to get far enough inland. Tough call this time of year as surface temps will tend to "pop back up" as any lake clouds/showers move over an area. That said, some snow or rain/snow mix might be possible across eastern Upper MI, and into the higher terrain areas of northern Lower MI . such as around CAD/Lake City/Atlanta . etc. Shouldn't amount to much, but I will have it in the forecast.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Hard freeze Friday night

Pattern Synopsis:

Amplified longwave troughing will encompass much of the eastern CONUS Friday, slowly pivoting towards the Atlantic as upper-level ridging approaches the Great Lakes from central Canada. Subsidence aloft provided at the ridge/trough inflection point will build surface high pressure from southern Canada into the region through the weekend.

Forecast/Details:

N/NNW winds will continue to fuel lake effect rain shower chances across portions of northern Michigan through Friday afternoon. While forecast soundings display inverted-V near-surface profiles, otherwise deeper moisture w/ inversion heights near 700 mb should help at least some precipitation in reaching the surface. Aforementioned high pressure should bring a temporary halt to precip chances as the pressure gradient relaxes, leading to weaker winds across the area Friday night. While lake-induced cloud cover is still expected, especially near the lakeshores, low temperatures look to dip into the upper 20s for many across interior portions of northern lower and eastern upper. Should less cloud cover materialize, those near the lakes could see temperatures drop near freezing Friday night as well. To note, should lake effect precip linger into the evening/overnight hours, some elevated interior areas could see a few snowflakes as temperatures begin to drop. Precip chances return to the area Saturday night as a shortwave rotates overhead, providing necessary ascent aloft. Overnight temperatures in the mid 30s across interior areas could once again bring the chance to see a few flakes before quickly melting.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Amplified upper-level troughing should continue to pivot across the region towards New England on Sunday before ridging temporarily slides overhead early next week. Ascent provided aloft is expected to support rain showers with a few flakes of snow possibly mixing in across elevated areas early on Sunday before departing east by the late afternoon/evening timeframe. High pressure builds in early next week underneath aforementioned ridging, muting precip chances by Monday. A relatively strong trough may dig into the Great lakes towards the middle of next week, supporting a cyclone to traverse the region and bring the next bout of rain to northern Michigan. After this system passes, NW winds behind would likely support lake effect precip across portions of northern Michigan heading into next weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 631 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Cold front will slide down through northern Lower Michigan today bringing even cooler air into the region. Combined with daytime heating and over lake instability, this will result in showers again expanding across the region this morning into the afternoon. A few thunderstorms are also possible once again, but mainly across northeast Lower Michigan and toward Saginaw Bay. Conditions will likely teeter between VFR and MVFR through the day as showers move through.

Shower coverage diminishes tonight. But lake induced showers will continue to impact areas toward the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron coast, including TVC/MBL and APN.

MARINE. Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Gusty northwest to northerly winds will continue through tonight, with small craft advisory conditions anticipated in most nearshore areas. Winds/waves will diminish heading into Friday and we should finally turn headline free for the next few days.

Waterspouts remain possible on the Great Lakes through tonight, and possibly into Friday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Friday for LHZ349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-342. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . TL NEAR TERM . ADAM SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . BA MARINE . ADAM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45163 6 mi38 min WSW 12 G 14 59°F 1 ft
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi38 min WSW 11 G 17 56°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi38 min W 8.9 G 13 59°F 1010.8 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi18 min W 11 G 13 55°F 1010.5 hPa (+0.3)
KP58 46 mi27 min W 8 G 18 60°F 1010.3 hPa43°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi23 minWNW 810.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F44°F57%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW5NW7W6NW4CalmW3S3SW5SW5SW5SW8SW7SW6SW6SW5SW6SW7SW6SW6SW7SW6SW9SW12W13

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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