Wednesday, April21, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:27PM Wednesday April 21, 2021 7:52 AM EDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:47PMMoonset 3:14AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 409 Am Edt Wed Apr 21 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Today..North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of snow. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202104211515;;883532 FZUS53 KDTX 210809 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 409 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-211515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 210954 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 554 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal/none. Light or very light areas of precipitation scattered across nrn Michigan through tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level troughing was in Ontario and Quebec, and extended back through the Great Lakes, Upper Midwest and Mississippi valley early this morning. There were a few shortwaves buried in this troughing, one pushing into the Ohio river valley, initiating sfc low pressure that was moving into the mid Atlantic states. Another was pressing SE out of Lake Superior/MN/SD, which was associated with weak diurnally-driven showers from yesterday. Here in nrn Michigan, things were fairly quiet. We still have cold H8 temps of -10C to -14C and deeper low level moisture across eastern upper in N/NW low level flow, that was leading to lake effect flurries, which may come to an end real soon, as latest satellite is showing rapid drying coming in from the north. A drier wedge of low level air resulted in clearing across much of nrn lower last evening, outside of some high level cloud across the SE CWA that was associated with snow across the SE lower Michigan. Nocturnal cooling of the BL and moisture flux off the Great Lakes over the last several hours however, has allowed for the redevelopment of lake clouds in those N/NW LES flow regimes of nrn lower.

The upper troughing will gradually track eastward today and tonight, with subtle shortwaves and associated sfc troughs seemingly rotating in and out of nrn Michigan. The weather is going to be fairly benign, but when combined with continued nocturnal cooling of the BL and increasing inversion heights at night and into the morning, coupled with hints of daytime lake breeze convergence areas and potential diurnally-driven convection working off a BL that is not overly moist, well, this forecast isn't really anything close to easy. Again, any lake effect and land based convection is expected to be rather pitiful, but when and where this weak convection takes place is more than difficult. Will just have some low chances for light or very light precipitation in more broad-brushed/expanded areas where hi-res guidance is focusing on. Periods of clearing/sun expected as well. Wish there could be some more confidence in this forecast, but this pattern appears to be one that spotlights the "limits of predictability" in this business. It does at least seem as though some drier air arrives tonight, especially across the N/NW CWA.

High temperatures will mostly be in the upper 30s to lower half of the 40s. Lows tonight will range through the 20s. This will necessitate another freeze warning for the NW lower agricultural areas, but will let the current headline run out before day crew can re-issue.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Continued freeze conditions possible Thursday AM.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast Details:

Quiet weather is expected to round out the work week across northern Michigan. From a pattern standpoint, a closed upper-level low will continue to progress across New England Thursday morning as an associated cyclone works up the Atlantic Coast into New Brunswick. Subsidence aloft behind this system will help build surface high pressure across most of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River. Westerly low-level flow will spread across the Great lakes late this week, introducing a very a dry airmass to the region. In turn, mostly sunny/clear skies are expected over northern Michigan for the bulk of the short term period with precipitation-free weather heading into the weekend. Aside from some temps in the upper 20s/low 30s across the area Thursday morning continuing overnight freezing conditions across sensitive agricultural areas, temperatures will warm back up into the low 50s Thursday afternoon and even into the 60s on Friday afternoon. Lows Thursday night/Friday morning are expected to be in the low 30s across interior areas and the mid/upper 30s near the lakeshores, which looks to be much-needed relief for sensitive agricultural areas in the coastal counties of NW lower after freezing temps through the first half of the week.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now . Monitoring middle of next week.

Split upper-level flow will be in place across the CONUS to start the weekend as two separate shortwaves progress across the Great Lakes and SE CONUS. The wave moving overhead will provide support for the next round of precip chances across northern Michigan in the Friday night - Saturday night timeframe. A cold front also looks to slide in by Sunday morning with northwest winds behind it ushering in some cooler temps to end the weekend. A break in precip is expected Sunday - Monday before a more active pattern looks to take hold heading into the middle of next week. Enough consistency and agreement in both deterministic and ensemble guidance exists to begin to monitor both thunder and heavy rainfall chances late in the period. Would like to emphasize that this is a week away and many uncertainties still exist, but found it worthy of noting as northern Michigan begins to turn away from snow (finally) and towards its active convective season.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 550 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

Upper troughing and associated sfc troughs are expected to rotate in and out of nrn Michigan through tonight, resulting in light, or very light, areas of low to no impact precipitation over the TAF period, with periods of clearing/sun as well. MVFR CIGS have been lifting back to VFR over the last couple of hours, but periods of MVFR seem possible through mid morning or so, until daytime heating and mixing really sends SCT-BKN cumulus to 5-6kft deeper into the afternoon. Additional patchy MVFR CIGS are at least possible again late tonight, mainly around TVC. There's plenty of uncertainty as to the when and where for both precip and clearing.

A light N/NW flow will turn more W/NW later today, and more west tonight. Maybe some slight gustiness this afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 220 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021

The pressure gradient has loosened to the point where N/NW winds have weakened enough for all advisories to be allowed to expire. The exception is for the Presque Isle light area, where, overlake instability and coastal convergence may result in low end advisory wind speeds today, and maybe a better chance tonight. Other areas may see low end advisories Thursday and Thursday night, but it's borderline, and confidence is not high enough to issue any headlines. Only some isolated/scattered nuisance light precipitation expected at times through Wednesday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING until noon EDT today for MIZ020-021-025-026-031- 099. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi73 min NW 13 G 18 25°F 1016.9 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi73 min NW 8.9 G 15 26°F 1016.9 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi53 min N 20 G 23 26°F 1016.6 hPa (+0.3)
KP58 46 mi58 min NW 13 G 22 30°F 1016.6 hPa22°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi58 minWNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy24°F15°F68%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW5NW6W5W4E8SE7E7SE10E7E8E8E5SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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