Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:59PM Saturday March 28, 2020 5:25 PM EDT (21:25 UTC) Moonrise 8:36AMMoonset 11:18PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 343 Pm Edt Sat Mar 28 2020
.gale warning in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening...
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Rain and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales becoming southwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knot gales early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain in the morning, then light rain likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Gusts to 35 knot gales early in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Light rain likely in the evening. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:202003290315;;212589 FZUS53 KDTX 281943 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-290315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
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location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 282015 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 415 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

. Rain and a few thunderstorms tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential: A few thunderstorms possible later this evening into the overnight hours. Stronger storms could produce hail.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Rather impressive early spring storm system continues to develop across the Plains/Midwest. Deepening short-wave/closed upper low is located over eastern Nebraska with a strong upper jet core extending from Texas up through the Midwest and across the Great Lakes and pronounced upper diffluent/divergence axis spreading into central Midwest region. 18Z surface analysis has attending surface low just into SW Iowa and warm front stretching eastward across Illinois/Indiana and Ohio. Strong low level backed flow coincident with building instability through that region has set the stage for severe weather over the next several hours.

Meanwhile, axis of widespread warm advection forced rainfall across the region earlier in the day has largely diminished, save for a few pockets of showers and perhaps a touch of drizzle. But . warm conveyor/moisture surge ahead of the deepening low has/is leading to our next expanding area of showers/storms up into the Midwest and lower lakes region.

Details: Short-wave impulse and attending surface low on track to further deepen/occlude while lifting up through the Midwest and into central Wisconsin by Sunday morning. Associated strong warm conveyor and upper level divergence forcing will spread widespread rainfall up into northern Michigan tonight along with the potential for some thunderstorms as elevated instability axis along and ahead of the occluding front pivots up through the region.

Severe weather potential tonight: No changes from the late morning update. Latest SPC Day One outlook maintains a marginal risk for elevated severe storms across roughly the southern third of the CWA, with the main threat large hail. That seems reasonable given limited/no surface based instability tonight but respectable 0-6KM deep layer shear in excess of 70 knots in the presence of some elevated instability.

Occluded boundary, pronounced dry slot and sharp cutoff to the precip will be swinging through the region early Sunday morning bringing a brief lull in precip for a few hours . save for spotty drizzle. Stacked surface and upper level low and associated vorticity center is expected to track across northern Lower Michigan/Straits region through the day and will bring another round of widespread showers across the region.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Perhaps a few slick spots developing by early Monday morning as lingering rain showers mix with and transition to snow showers, especially across eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern lower.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Sunday evening, well-advertised vertically stacked low pressure is expected to be situated across far northeast lower/northern Lake Huron . continuing to progress eastward into Ontario overnight and eventually into Quebec Monday morning. Lingering wrap around moisture bringing continued precip chances will be the rule through Sunday night before deep layer drier air returns as high pressure tries to gradually ooze into the region from the northwest. As a result, much more tranquil conditions expected locally to begin to the new work week.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Lingering precip chances Sunday night, including a possible transition to light snow. Temperature/cloud trends Monday into Tuesday.

As was alluded to above, wrap around moisture and continued synoptic support on the backside of the departing system should prove to be enough for lingering rain showers across the majority of the forecast area at the start of the period Sunday evening. Primary concern through the Sunday night time frame is the potential for a transition to snow showers as the column cools, primarily after midnight across parts of eastern upper and the interior highlands of northern lower. Not expecting much in the way of accumulation (perhaps a few tenths of an inch) given sfc temperatures near freezing or a degree or two above, but can't entirely rule out some slick spots developing by Monday morning. Latest trends suggest overall precip chances wane early Monday morning as a result of decreased support aloft and drying through the mid-upper levels. However, there may be enough shallow moisture (sub -10C) to continue a few spotty showers or drizzle through mid-late morning before model soundings take on a more inverted-V flavor through the low levels, likely eventually resulting in just lingering low clouds through the remainder of the day. High temperatures Monday expected to fall some 10 or so degrees below Sunday's readings . ranging from near 40 to the low 40s across the forecast area.

Relatively tranquil weather returns across all of northern Michigan for the remainder of the forecast period through midweek. Will keep the inherited dry forecast going for now, although there are some signs that this weekend's system eventually stalls over the Northeast before washing out with lingering mid-level energy perhaps retrograding a bit late Tuesday. This may bring a bit of deeper moisture back into the region from the east, perhaps resulting in a few showers/drizzle across parts of the area, but confidence in this idea is low at this time. High temperatures Tuesday climb a few degrees over Monday . in the mid 40s for most.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now, although sporadic snow chances look possible at times mid-late week as renewed troughing across the center of the CONUS brings below normal temps.

Initial precip chances through the extended arrive late in the day Wednesday/Wednesday night as mid-level energy and an attendant surface reflection barrel across the northern plains into the northern Great Lakes. Currently, this system looks to fall as primarily rain, but wouldn't be surprised to see some snow mix in during the overnight hours across the typically cooler areas/higher terrain. Trends beyond this suggest renewed troughing across the Great Lakes becomes prevalent through the remainder of the forecast period with below normal temperatures and any weak perturbations rippling through the flow bringing the possibility of rain/snow showers.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

VFR conditions holding on across norther Lower Michigan early this afternoon, although lower CIGS are just off to our south (south of M-55 corridor) and creeping northward. VFR conditions will likely hold across northern Lower Michigan through the afternoon, except for mbL where MVFR CIGS will remain.

Next round of widespread rainfall will spread up into the region starting early this evening and will lead to conditions deteriorating to IFR for tonight and remaining that way into Sunday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible across northern Lower Michigan, mainly between 04Z and 12Z.

Finally, LLWS is anticipated at the terminal sites tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 338 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Gusty SE winds will continue to ramp up tonight into Sunday morning as a storm system deepens and tracks into Wisconsin. Winds veer southwesterly a weaken a bit on Sunday as the system moves through the tip of the mitt/Straits region. But winds further veer northwesterly and increase again Sunday night.

Small craft advisories are in effect through Sunday morning to address gusty SE winds. Additional small craft advisories will likely be needed Sunday night into Monday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for MIZ088-096-097. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until noon EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for LSZ322. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Monday for LSZ321.

NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi46 min NNE 18 G 21 37°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi26 min NE 23 G 27 38°F 1009.8 hPa (+0.3)
KP58 46 mi35 min NE 14 38°F 1010.1 hPa34°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi31 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast42°F32°F68%1010.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5E5CalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4NE5NE4NE6CalmE5E9NE7NE10N8N7
1 day agoNE7NE5NE5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmNE3NE6NE3CalmCalmE4CalmS3SE5SE4E8SE6E6E6E5E7
2 days agoS10SE8SE8S7S7SE6S5SW5CalmCalmCalmE3NE3NE5N3NW6N5N7N7N8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.