Wednesday, December11, 2019
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Au Gres, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:56AMSunset 5:00PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 4:38 AM EST (09:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:48PMMoonset 7:12AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 343 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots increasing to 30 knots in the late morning and early afternoon, then diminishing to 20 to 25 knots late in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. A chance of light snow showers in the morning. Waves 5 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ421 Expires:201912111615;;180356 FZUS53 KDTX 110843 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 343 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ421-111615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Au Gres, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.06, -83.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 110741 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 241 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

. Lake snows and cold to continue .

High impact weather potential: Cold temperatures with accumulating lake snows.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Talk about stating the obvious, but well advertised shot of Arctic air now fully entrenched across the northern Great Lakes, as evident by current readings in the single digits and teens, with wind chill values several degrees colder yet. Trough responsible for this shot of cold centered north/south right through the heart of the region, with embedded shortwave and secondary shot of even colder air dropping southeast into the northwest Lakes. Despite basically non-existent synoptic support, maintenance of extreme over-water thermal gradient and lake-induced equilibrium levels up near 10kft continues to result in lake effect snow showers. Cloud-bearing flow has backed more southwesterly in response to that next approaching wave . targeting the Tip of the Mitt counties for the most organized snow showers. As for our eastern upper snow belt locations . land breezes and development of weak low pressure across the eastern basin of Lake Superior has punted lake snows well north of Whitefish Point.

Coldest temperatures anomalies will pivot quickly east across the area this morning as that upstream wave does the same. Upper jet streak rotating out of the northern Plains will keep the mid and upper level flow environment progressive, booting core of coldest air off to our east tonight, with temperatures steadily recovering the rest of the week. Lake snows continue today, subsiding tonight as warm air advection commences ahead of weak low pressure racing east across the northern Plains (which will likely bring some more accumulating snow to at least parts of the area Thursday).

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Progression and impacts from lake effect snow showers and attendant headline considerations.

Details: Southwest flow early this morning will veer more westerly, to even a bit northwest, with passage of that upstream wave and attendant surface trough. This will once again punt the more organized lake snows south into our traditional snow belt locations. Best lake snow parameters will be found across Lake Superior this morning and early afternoon, with better synoptic moisture contribution and lake-induced convective depths up and over 10kft (lake-induced cape over 1k joules/kg). Would expect enhanced convergence along surface trough to drive band of heavier snows quickly south into northern Chippewa county this morning (perhaps impacting Sault Ste. Marie), with more traditional multi-banding structures impacting the area later this morning into the afternoon. Could easily see another 3 to 6 inches, locally higher, especially along and north of M-28. Gusty winds will also yield pockets of blowing snow, especially across north-south oriented roadways.

Not quite the same story for northern lower Michigan, with much less synoptic contribution and gradually lowering convective depths. This will definitely throttle back on snowfall intensity some, and given those veering wind profiles keeping any organized bands transient, can't really see much more than and additional 1 to 3 inches in northwest lower Michigan. Lighter snow showers and flurries elsewhere. Much like eastern upper, expect gusty winds to produce some blowing and drifting snow, especially in those more open and exposed areas.

As for headlines . Will let inherited advisories and warnings run their course for northern lower Michigan, with at least a few inches of additional snow expected through this morning. Given expected increase in snows across the snow belts of Chippewa county, along with some blowing and drifting snow, will go ahead and issue a advisory for the northern sections of that county today into this evening.

Would expect a downward trend in snow showers heading into this evening as warm air advection develops and the atmosphere further drys out. Could still some some minor snow accumulations early this evening, particularly across northern Chippewa county. Elevated moisture from approaching clipper system arrives toward morning, likely reorganizing the lake processes a bit near the Lake Michigan coast up into the Straits. May even see the beginning stages of warm air advection driven light snow punch into the area, although trends continue to support most of this activity holding off until the daylight hours of Thursday.

Well below normal temperatures today, with highs only in the middle and upper teens (normal highs in the lower 30s), with wind chill readings at least a few degrees below zero. Remain cold tonight, with lows in the single digits and lower teens.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Another Clipper on Thursday to produce a few inches .

Synopsis/Forecast: A wave currently coming onshore in British Columbia will sink southeast through Wednesday, ending up over Wisconsin by midday Thursday. This helps spin up a surface low in the central Plains, which will also be supported by a 100 kt jet right entrance region through the day. This becomes a quick-hitting clipper for our area Thursday.

Details/concerns: We'll be on the backside of a surface high early Thursday, allowing moist and milder air to flow north over us. As the clipper approaches the area our winds turn more out of the south- southeast. Isentropic lift out ahead of the warm front combined with deep -DivQ ahead of the shortwave will help spread an area of snow from west to east across the area late in the morning, continuing through the afternoon. Guidance suggests the highest snowfall (on the order of 2 to 4 inches) falls in northwest lower to ern upper. This is where the better dynamics and moisture will reside. Through the day slightly warmer air moves, pushing forecast soundings out of the DGZ. Omega is better during the late morning through mid afternoon, helping support better snow intensity, then this diminishes heading into the evening. A few snow showers may linger through Thursday night, but this is unlikely given the loss of mid level moisture and the continued warming through the night. Friday morning another compact weak low treks east out of the Dakotas. The exact track of this system seems a little uncertain as of now, but it looks to miss us to the northeast, with the best dynamics and moisture well removed from our area. Even so some light flurries and/or freezing drizzle may be possible through the afternoon. Then better snow chances return Friday night as profiles more fully saturate.

Temperatures rise through Thursday night into Friday thanks to WAA. Friday's highs are expected to be a couple degrees above normal.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

High Impact Weather: Minimal

Through the weekend general troughiness takes over Ontario through the Great Lakes, with the potential for a strong nor'easter impacting the northeast. We remain in northwest flow late Saturday afternoon through Sunday, and colder low to midlevel air pours into the region behind the New England system. Increasing overlake instability will bring more chances for lake effect Saturday and Sunday. High pressure move in Sunday night into Monday, bringing a lull in lake effect intensity. After this there's potential for a strong system to ride up through the Ohio Valley, and while it's far out, we could see gusty winds and more synoptic snow as this crosses to our southeast. Even with the slight warm up on Saturday, the rest of the period will run a couple degrees below normal.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1140 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

WSW lake effect snow showers will impact the region into Wednesday morning and bringing heavier snow to the PLN terminal . conditions teetering back and forth from MVFR to LIFR. Lighter snow showers impact TVC and mbL while VFR weather is anticipated at APN.

WSW winds veer WNW on Wednesday and will push the heavier snow bands out of the PLN area at that juncture . with snow showers then diminishing through the day. Gustier winds also develop later tonight through Wednesday and will produce some blowing snow.

MARINE. Issued at 237 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

Gusty winds will continue through this morning, gradually diminishing from west to east this afternoon and evening. Another period of small craft advisory producing winds expected to develop on Thursday, this time from the south and southeast, as weak low pressure moves into the northern Lakes.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST today for MIZ021-099. WINTER STORM WARNING until noon EST today for MIZ016-017. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ086. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for MIZ087. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 1 AM EST Thursday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . BA MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 7 mi34 min SW 29 21°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 17 mi59 min WSW 8 G 24 20°F 1020.3 hPa
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 18 mi39 min W 20 G 24 22°F 1020 hPa (+0.0)
KP58 46 mi48 min SW 6 22°F 1021.2 hPa12°F

Wind History for Harbor Beach, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last
24hr
NW10
G17
NW10
G16
NW11
G19
NW9
G18
NW11
G16
NW9
G13
NW8
G12
NW7
G11
NW7
G10
NW7
G11
NW9
G12
NW10
G13
NW4
G7
SW4
SW5
SW6
G9
W11
G16
W8
G14
W12
G17
W14
G21
SW8
G13
SW7
G11
SW8
G11
SW10
G17
1 day
ago
SE11
SE8
SE8
S11
SE10
S8
G11
SE11
SE11
SE13
SE12
SE11
SW11
G14
SW11
G17
SW13
G17
SW9
G14
SW8
G12
SW12
G15
SW12
G19
W17
G25
W15
G26
W7
G21
W12
G19
W9
G19
NW9
G14
2 days
ago
S14
G21
S16
G20
S14
G20
S14
G17
S16
G20
S17
G21
S16
S14
G19
S14
G18
S14
G19
S12
G17
S11
G15
S8
S7
G10
S6
G10
S5
S5
S4
S2
S5
S3
SE1
SE8
SE8

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI31 mi63 minW 810.00 miOvercast20°F8°F61%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
Last 24hrW16
G21
NW9NW9NW10NW13
G17
NW15NW14NW11
G17
NW9
G15
N8W6W8W7SW8W10
G15
W10W12W16
G19
SW8SW8W6W7W6
G15
W13
1 day agoE6E6E4CalmCalmS5S7S7S8S6S10SW7SW11SW12
G18
SW9SW10SW10
G15
W13
G18
W10
G16
NW11
G20
NW12
G19
W12
G19
NW12
G18
W9
G15
2 days agoS12
G18
S14
G19
S13
G19
S14
G20
S14
G22
SW15
G21
S12
G20
SW17
G23
SW15
G19
SW10SW7S4S3S3CalmCalmCalmS3SW3S4CalmCalmCalmE3

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (4,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This webiste uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. I do not keep site logs longer than I need to to keep bad actors off the site. Basically, I delete them after looking at them. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.