Sunrise 6:34 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 9:49 PM   Moonset 6:05 AM

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LHZ421 Outer Saginaw Bay Sw Of Alabaster To Port Austin Mi To Inner Saginaw Bay- 351 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy in the evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 251011 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 611 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather continues today and tonight.

- Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late.

- Showers and storms continue at times through the weekend into Monday -- including potential for severe storms on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to pivot from the northeast CONUS over the Atlantic today as longwave ridging slides eastward over the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft provided at the inflection point of these features will keep building surface high pressure currently centered overhead gradually eastward today into tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough looks to eject over the southern Great Plains later this evening and tonight, providing ample divergence aloft to support lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas/Nebraska.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather continues today and tonight -- Cold temperatures this morning will quickly warm up after sunrise with cloud-free skies in store through today and tonight. Highs across the area look to climb into the low to mid 50s for most of northern Michigan, aside from those against the lakeshores that may stay in the upper 40s.
Light/calm winds are also anticipated today with lake breezes pushing inland this afternoon and evening. Southeast winds look to gradually strengthen beginning late tonight into Friday morning with overnight lows dipping back into the upper 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the central CONUS will breifly bring a warmer air mass with surface high pressure to the Great Lakes region this Friday. Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Pacific near southern California will progress across the country and return a more active weather pattern at the start of the weekend.

Aforementioned troughing will be centered over the Central Plains at the start of the forecast period. The trough and surface based low pressure will slowly move across the midwest this weekend into early next week, while simultaneously weakening, delivering rounds of thunderstorms and showers through Monday before a more zonal flow pattern takes over by next Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late: Friday starts off dry. High pressure continues to deliver one more day of pleasant weather before a weakening cold front delivers precipitation to parts of the CWA as soon as Friday night. Rainfall will need to saturate the environment from a top down method, so overcoming dry air can delay measurable precipitation until the 12Z timeframe.
Aforementioned low pressure will be weakening as it moves across the Upper Midwest, keeping rainfall pretty low, but CAPE values in the 1500-1800 range and SRH values approaching the 300s will keep the potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon/evening a real possibility. SPC has upgraded the northern lower penisula to a slight risk of severe weather and WPC keeps Michigan under no risk of excessive rainfall, but a general quarter to half inch can be expected through Saturday.

Precipitation will continues at times through the weekend into Monday: Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will persist this weekend as the first trough diminishes and is quickly replaced by another. Showers and storms will continue across the Great Lakes region through Monday. Quiet weather will settle into the region for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS returns surface high pressure to the CWA for the end of April.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the issuance period with sunny/clear skies in place. Weak/calm winds are also anticipated for most of the period, with the only caveat being lake breeze formation pushing inland from all lakeshore areas during the afternoon and evening tomorrow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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