Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
North Conway, NH

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 4:11PM Sunday December 15, 2019 6:31 PM EST (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 8:48PMMoonset 11:14AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ153 Casco Bay- 354 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..W winds 20 to 30 kt, diminishing to 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, subsiding to 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 ft in the afternoon. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to variable to less than one quarter nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby variable to less than one quarter nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow showers in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
ANZ100 354 Pm Est Sun Dec 15 2019
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm.. Strong westerly winds expected to continue tonight. Winds will diminish gradually on Monday. The next low pressure system tracks south of the gulf of maine on Tuesday. Another trough of low pressure will cross the waters Wednesday into early Thursday with gusty winds in its wake. &&


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Conway, NH
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location: 44.07, -71.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME
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FXUS61 KGYX 152105 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 405 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. A complex frontal system crosses the area tonight with strong winds over much of the area Sunday. High pressure builds into the area Monday. Low pressure tracking from the Ohio Valley towards southern New England will bring mainly light to moderate snow to the area Tuesday morning into the evening. Snow showers are possible Wednesday followed by gusty winds and much colder air for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Snow showers will continue for a few more hours, mainly across the mountains as a fast moving short wave trough crosses the region embedded within the fast westerly flow aloft. Great Lakes moisture enhancement and upslope conditions will aid in the snow showers. A Special Weather Statement has been issued for a few of the briefly heavier snow showers.

As the snow showers exit the mountains, a few will cross the interior as well this evening and attempt a run at the coast. However, dew point depressions over southern areas remain relatively large with virga likely across some areas.

Thereafter, leaned towards a blend of model data in a relatively well mixed layer. Minimum temperatures will remain in the teens and 20s in most areas despite the strong cold air advection.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY/. Breezy conditions will continue for much of the day Monday as an intense area of low pressure remains well to our northeast and high pressure builds into the region.

Ample sunshine will allow for a rebound in temperatures. With H8 readings in the -4C to -8C range in most areas, look for afternoon highs to reach the mid 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. Monday night, weak high pressure over the area erodes and shifts eastward as ridging aloft breaks down, in response to a deepening trough over the Great Lakes. As the trough digs south, it interacts with a southern stream shortwave, ingesting it and tracking the feature up through Appalachia into the northeast through Tuesday. Locally, a developing upper level jet downstream of the wave allows for strong overrunning/isentropic forcing along a vertically slanted, E/W oriented warm frontal axis draped over southern New England early Tuesday morning.

Modeled QPF and moisture fields suggests virga falling into a dry airmass upon onset, gradually moistening the column Tuesday morning. With this in mind expect precipitation onset at the surface in southern NH around 6-9AM Tuesday morning, gradually spreading north into the Whites and southwest Maine through the morning hours. Snow will be the dominant precipitation type with a small chance of sleet as the system amplifies during mid-Tuesday, owning to dry air intrusion aloft cutting into the DGZ. But, dry antecedent conditions and gradual moistening via virga have me leaning on the cooler side of guidance both at the surface and aloft with wet bulbing. With this logic have maintained dendritic growth from the previous forecast, while also maintaining lower ratios during mid- day across the south.

As was expressed in the prior AFD now that the forcing wave is being sampled with CONUS RAOBs, we're starting to get some run- to- run consistency. So, haven't made any major changes to the inherited forecast except to tighten up PoP a bit upon onset. Modeled QPF however still has some model-to-model spread with a middle ground of 0.25-0.5" liquid equivalent potential Tuesday. As some ensemble members demonstrate, though, and as we've seen at least once so far this year, these upglide events can be overachievers so long as moisture depth and favorable temperature profiles are present. So Tuesday morning snowfall and subsequent impacts on the morning commute will be something to keep a careful eye on with advisories likely being necessary once forecast confidence is better.

As the shortwave aloft tracks ENEward, a surface low redevelops along coast by mid-Tuesday, shifting focus along coastal plain south of the mountains during the afternoon and into the early evening before the system slides off to the east toward Nova Scotia. A look to ensemble sensitivity analysis indicates this transition as a major point of uncertainty in the forecast. So while an additional couple inches of snow are expected during the second half of Tuesday, the forecast could go either direction with better overlap of moisture and forcing amounting to greater snowfall or a faster exodus of the system as a whole leading to lower snowfall for this period including the Tuesday evening commute.

The shortwave moves off to the east Tuesday night into early Wednesday yielding to brief low/mid-level ridging which allows for a relative break in the action. Later Wednesday, the upper level long wave trough nudges east into the Northeast, bringing a compact clipper-type surface system across with snow squall potential Wednesday evening into early Thursday. An inverted trough could keep snow showers going into mid-Thursday. The trough aloft allows for a push of Arctic-sourced air with h850 temps in the area of -20 to -25C intruding by Friday. This combined with high pressure to the west and eventually overhead will allow for a relatively cold end of the week with potential for strong, gusty winds on Thursday. Temperatures will likely struggle to reach the single digits and teens (north), teens and 20s (south), during the afternoons with a modest warming trend Thursday through Saturday. Friday appears to be the coldest morning of the period with morning lows in the single digits on either size of 0F, teens along the coast.

In short, the forecast for the weekend remains uncertain with major synoptic differences between long range model suites. The pattern remains active however with chances for precipitation returning by Sunday. Backed up by CPC day 6-10 outlooks, a cooler airmass below freezing is more likely than a warmer airmass, so have snow showers in the forecast while sticking closer to consensus blend for temperatures and PoPs this weekend.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term . /through Monday/ Mainly VFR conditions through Monday. However, scattered snow showers in the mountains and foothills may allow for brief periods of MVFR or IFR conditions this evening.

Long Term . Clouds gradually thicken and ceilings lower Monday night amid light and variable winds with the approach of the next system. IFR or worse in SN is expected to overspread terminals starting in southern NH and spreading across the CWA through the day Tuesday under light northerly winds. Conditions improve gradually Tuesday night as the system pulls away to the east and ceilings lift/scatter out. VFR prevails for most through the balance of the week, except for over upslope regions where MVFR ceilings linger. West winds become gusty with additional -shsn Wednesday evening into Thursday.

MARINE. Short Term . /through Monday/ Gales to remain in effect through tonight as strong cold air advection and a gusty westerly gradient continues. Winds will gradually ease into SCA range Monday morning.

Long Term . A wave of snow amid northeasterly flow crosses Tuesday into Tuesday night with a period of SCA seas possible outside the bays. A more broad trough crosses Wednesday and Thursday with gusty northwest winds developing, possibly to Gale Force outside the bays. Winds and seas gradually diminish as cold high pressure builds into the area.

HYDROLOGY. The Suncook River at North Chichester remains the last holdout with the river still barely in flood late this afternoon. The river should fall below flood stage early this evening.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for MEZ007>009-012>014- 018>028. NH . Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NHZ001>015. MARINE . Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.

NEAR/SHORT TERM . Cannon LONG TERM . Casey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CASM1 - 8418150 - Portland, ME 58 mi50 min 41°F 42°F
WEXM1 - Wells Reserve, ME 61 mi92 min W 8 41°F 26°F
WELM1 - 8419317 - Wells, ME 62 mi50 min W 12 G 23 39°F 44°F1005.7 hPa

Wind History for Wells, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mount Washington, NH15 mi98 minW 70 G 89 miLight Showers Snow Freezing Fog Blowing Snow and Windy9°F8°F100%0 hPa
Fryeburg, Eastern Slopes Regional Airport, ME15 mi38 minWSW 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy34°F18°F52%1004.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMWN

Wind History from MWN (wind in knots)
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2 days agoW36W39W36W36W34SW30
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Tide / Current Tables for Fore River, Maine
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Fore River
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EST     9.10 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM EST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:52 PM EST     10.47 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:19 PM EST     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.89.18.36.64.42.10.70.51.53.45.98.41010.59.77.95.42.60.4-0.7-0.50.93.15.6

Tide / Current Tables for Back Cove, Maine
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Back Cove
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:46 AM EST     8.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:43 AM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 12:52 PM EST     10.15 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:04 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:23 PM EST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:44 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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8.58.88.16.54.32.20.70.51.43.35.78.19.710.19.47.85.32.70.5-0.6-0.50.82.95.3

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.