Tuesday, October19, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:16PM Tuesday October 19, 2021 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 5:12PMMoonset 5:12AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:202110191500;;924240 Fzus61 Kbuf 191051 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 651 Am Edt Tue Oct 19 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Broad high pressure averaging 30.2 inches stretching from the southeast to the central great lakes will slowly build across the lake today. Expect the high to move off the east coast on Thursday while low pressure and a cold front averaging 29.7 inches crosses the lake. Loz063>065-191500- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 651 am edt Tue oct 19 2021
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 191957 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 357 PM EDT Tue Oct 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure extending from the Southeastern states to the Upper Ohio Valley will provide our region with warm and dry weather through Wednesday. A cold front will then cross the area on Thursday with widespread showers . with cooler conditions then returning for Friday and the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Broad high pressure extending from the Southeastern states to the Upper Ohio Valley will remain in place through Wednesday . while heights aloft continue to rise in the wake of a departing upper level low over Atlantic Canada. The net result of all this will be fair dry weather . along with notably warmer temperatures. The latter will also be aided by a relatively tight pressure gradient on the northern periphery of the surface high . which will not only result in breezy conditions/good mixing by day . but will also help to prevent significant decoupling at night.

Speaking more specifically with respect to temperatures . lows tonight will range from the upper 40s across interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the lower to mid 50s elsewhere. Continued warming of our airmass will then support fairly widespread highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday . with the warmest readings found across the lower elevations of the Finger Lakes and north of the Niagara Escarpment.

In terms of cloud cover . mainly clear conditions are expected until increasing mid and high clouds develop out ahead of the next approaching system during Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. A surface ridge will track east of the region Wednesday night. A southwest flow will increase in response to pressure falls centered across the central Great Lakes. An area of low pressure will track to the northwest while a cold front approaches the region Thursday. Drier air and lack of synoptic forcing ahead of the front will result in a mostly dry morning. Shower chances increase across far western NY and the northern Tug Hill region late Thursday morning before showers move into the rest of the region by Thursday afternoon. A potent shortwave trough behind this system will result in strong forcing. Showers, heavy at times are likely ahead of the front into Thursday evening. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon across interior portions of the region where daytime heating may result in some instability ahead of the front. The front will move to the east and cool air will filter back into the region. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to below zero by Friday morning. Some lake enhanced rain showers are possible into Friday morning.

The cool airmass will persist over the region Friday and Friday night. Dry air and weak subsidence will move in aloft while daytime heating and lake induced instability promote the chances for scattered showers and strato-cumulus through Friday. Best chance will be southeast of Lake Ontario.

Temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 60s Thursday and fall to the mid to upper 40s Thursday night. They only rebound to the low to mid 50s Friday before falling to the upper 30s to mid 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. An upper level trough will push across the region Saturday and Saturday night, while a reinforcing cold front swings across the region. 850 mb temperatures are expected to cool to near -3C by Sunday morning, behind the front, which will be sufficient for a lake response off both lakes in general west-northwest flow regime. Should be greater moisture and there is potential for shortwave to work through at this time as well. Overall that will result in increasing chances for showers first downstream of the lakes, then expanding to more areas later Sunday as the trough axis/colder air aloft works across.

Another cold front works through Sunday night with even colder air aloft arriving as low level winds turning more northwesterly. Showers will continue off both lakes and also over the higher terrain locations due to upslope flow.

Precipitation type will be mainly rain this weekend, but with 850 mb temperatures as cold as -5C, could see some wet snowflakes across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario both Saturday and Sunday nights and possibly even over western New York Sunday night.

Trough axis will begin shifting east by Monday with the next system quickly bringing increasing chances for rain.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Widespread VFR conditions will dominate our weather through Wednesday thanks to high pressure ridged from the Southeastern states to the Upper Ohio Valley. Skies will be mainly clear through tonight . with an increase in mid and high clouds expected out ahead of the next approaching system during Wednesday.

Otherwise . breezy conditions (gusts to 20-30 mph) late this afternoon will give way to lighter surface winds tonight. While winds aloft will remain elevated enough to potentially lead to some LLWS southeast of Lake Ontario . this should remain away from our terminal locations.

Outlook . Wednesday night . Mainly VFR with a chance of showers. Thursday . Restrictions likely with periods of showers. Friday through Sunday . VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

MARINE. Broad high pressure extending from the southeastern States to the Upper Ohio Valley will only slowly drift to the east coast through Wednesday. A fairly tight pressure gradient on the northern periphery of this surface high will produce a moderate westerly flow into Wednesday . necessitating Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters of both lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ043. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ045. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for LOZ044.



SYNOPSIS . JJR NEAR TERM . JJR SHORT TERM . HSK LONG TERM . TMA AVIATION . JJR MARINE . JJR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45135 - Prince Edward Pt 23 mi65 min W 23G29 61°F 61°F5 ft1012.1 hPa (-2.2)
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi65 min 65°F1009.7 hPa (-2.2)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi65 min W 21G25 62°F 1013.1 hPa (-1.8)48°F
45012 - Lake Ontario Buoy - 20NM North Northeast of Rochester, NY 49 mi35 min WSW 23G27 62°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi65 min 68°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi65 min WNW 18G23 67°F 1014.9 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NW25
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G35

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW10NW6W7N13NW400SE3E4E4000000N3NW6NE30N9----NW10
1 day ago----W13
G19
W12
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W14
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W8W15
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W12W9W6000W3W43W3N5W8W10W8W13
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W8
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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