Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:58PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:53 PM EST (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:50AMMoonset 10:56PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:202101190415;;128551 Fzus61 Kbuf 182307 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 607 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A 29.8 inch trough will be across the lake through Tuesday. A 30.2 inch high will then build from the lower mississippi valley to the lower great lakes on Wednesday. A 29.3 inch low will track across ontario and the upper great lakes on Thursday and then across the gulf of maine on Friday. Loz063>065-190415- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 607 pm est Mon jan 18 2021
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north less than 10 knots. Lake effect snow showers likely from late evening on. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the evening, then snow showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers during the day, then lake effect snow with a chance of lake effect rain showers Thursday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest. Lake effect rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Friday night. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 190247 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 947 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold westerly flow will maintain widespread accumulating lake snows across Western New York, with significant accumulations from the Buffalo Southtowns extending southward across far Western portions of Southern Tier through Tuesday. Significant lake enhanced snows are then expected to reignite east of Lake Ontario Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Lake effect snow will continue overnight, with significant accumulations still to come at some locations. 00z BUF sounding showed inversion to 700mb or around 10kft with good deal of DGZ in that lake effect convective layer. Radar shows a band of heavy lake effect snow (and even some thundersnow) lifting from southwest to northeast across eastern Lake Erie. This band will move up Interstate 90 from Dunkirk to Hamburg late this evening, producing a period of heavy snow and near whiteout conditions.

Off Lake Erie .

The big forecast question is how far north this band will set up, with the RGEM continuing to be the furtherest north compared to other 12/18Z model guidance. The problem is, the RGEM tends to handle these bands well, with a SW flow likely to establish a band just south of the city of Buffalo late tonight. This band will produce snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, and is likely to impact at least the Buffalo southtowns for some period tonight. For this reason, the Lake Effect Snow Warning was extended into Northern Erie County, even though there will be much less impact in the city of Buffalo and areas north. This said, the heavy snow band may briefly clip the city at times through Tuesday morning before pushing south and weakening Tuesday afternoon. The band will extend inland into Genesee and Wyoming counties, especially during Tuesday when winds will be a bit stronger.

Otherwise, a trough axis just south of Lake Ontario is providing a focus for some lake enhanced snows late this evening. Winds will shift to the southwest late tonight which will push this activity out across the open waters of Lake Ontario.

There will be some additional accumulation across Southern Erie, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties on Tuesday so it's possible the warning will need to be extended or transitioned into an advisory. Will let later shifts look at specifics on extension.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, Additional snow accums of 3-5 inches will be possible in the Buffalo Southtowns on Tuesday with slightly lower amounts anticipated for Genesee and the remainder of nrn Erie county. Elsewhere across Wrn NY, snow showers will accumulate an inch or two in some spots. Westerly winds gusting over 25 mph with temps in the upper 20s to around 30 could also result in blowing snow with reduced visibility in open areas.

Into Tuesday night over WNY, west to northwest flow will continue to support lake effect snows especially into the western Southern Tier. Locally heavy snow possible as even colder air builds across the lower Great Lakes (H85 temps -15c) and there is still lingering deeper moisture behind the sfc low pressure wave.

Off Lake Ontario .

Lake Effect Snow Warning for eastern Lake Ontario region from mid morning Tuesday through Tuesday night. Heaviest snow here will be on the central and northern Tug Hill Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Stronger west-southwest band off Lake Ontario becomes more transient later Tuesday night as it sweeps southward across more of Oswego county.

With a cap rising to at least 10k ft and strong west-southwest convergent flow pointed at central and northern Tug Hill region, amounts over a foot look likely in those areas from late Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Winds becoming more west- northwest later Tuesday night will eventually make this band more transient. Away from the Tug Hill, expect snow totals in the 3-6 inch range. West winds gusting over 30 mph and temps in the 20s will result in better chance of blowing snow and reduced visibility in open areas east of Lake Ontario later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Lower temps will also allow even the lower elevations to see accumulating snow unlike what occurred during the last heavy lake enhanced snow event this past weekend.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Potent upstream shortwave trough swings through the eastern Great Lakes early Wednesday morning. With its passage, veering wind flow to the northwest will shove lake snows off both lakes to the south. Deep synoptic moisture to start the period will then gradually deplete as the shortwave trough advances east with lake snows weakening by Wednesday afternoon. With the moving bands and shorter fetch of the lakes, accumulations will likely be limited to an inch or two, possibly a bit more near the southeast end of Lake Ontario where 3 to 4 inches will be possible. By late Wednesday afternoon, falling equilibrium levels and the incoming surface ridge will further suppress snowfall accumulations. Winds will also be in the process of backing to the west by Wednesday evening and then to the southwest Wednesday night. Although weak, there may be just enough support left to produce some minor accumulations as a lake snow band lifts north into and across the Buffalo Metro area.

Wednesday night, any remaining lake snows will end as H850T warm and inversion heights fall. Later on, a warm front will then track northeast across the eastern Great Lakes, which might produce some minor accumulations as we head into Thursday.

Thursday, warm front exits and the sfc low over Ontario tracks east and then southeast towards the Lower Lakes during the day. Still some timing issues with the cold front. GFS has an earlier arrival crossing the Lower Lakes Thursday evening or night time frame. ECMWF is much later with it tracking through Friday during the day. Either way, in its wake winds will veers more westerly and cooling aloft takes place with lake effect snows firing up again, especially east of Lake Ontario.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. After the cold frontal passage expect a return of lake enhanced and then lake effect snow. This snow is expected east and southeast of the lakes on and off through Saturday as 850 hPa temperatures drop from around -9C Friday morning to around -15C by Saturday morning. Late Friday into Friday night, a shortwave trough will cross the area, bringing additional chances for snow showers across most of the region with its passage, in addition to any areas of lake effect snow. Lake snows will largely end through the day Saturday as a surface ridge approaches the region. Lake snows may tea kettle over Lake Ontario within shallow moisture for Sunday morning. Another system will bring chance of light snow by next Monday, though stronger jet aloft and zonal flow may keep bulk of snow over the eastern Ohio valley and toward Mid Atlantic States.

During this period daytime temperatures will be around 5 to as much as 10 degrees below normal, except leading off on Friday when temperatures will be near to slightly above normal as the coldest air will lag the sfc cold front.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. MVFR to IFR conditions in lake effect snow showers which will be across the bulk of western New York tonight. Then a convergence band off Lake Erie will produce locally heavy snow which will push northward near KBUF later tonight before weakening and pushing south of the terminal on Tuesday. This has the potential to produce a brief period of heavy snow with visibility below a quarter mile, but this probably will stall just south of the terminal. The band will push south of KBUF on Tuesday with some snow showers.

Outside of lake snows expect mainly MVFR flight conditions tonight due to low cigs, with a mix of MVFR/VFR flight conditions Tuesday as cloud bases lift slightly.

Outlook .

Tuesday night through Friday . MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers east of both lakes. Saturday . VFR/MVFR. Scattered snow showers.

MARINE. Southwest winds will generate high enough waves to warrant a small craft advisory on Lake Erie which will extend into the middle of the week.

Winds will strengthen throughout the Lower Great Lakes on Tuesday with the fresh to strong westerlies remaining intact through at least Tuesday night. Have issued small craft headlines for Lake Ontario as well, starting Tuesday and ending Wednesday as outlined below.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ006>008. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ011. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Tuesday for NYZ010. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ012-019- 020-085. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ021. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 6 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ043>045. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ042.



SYNOPSIS . Apffel/JLA/RSH NEAR TERM . Apffel/JLA SHORT TERM . AR LONG TERM . JLA/SW/Thomas AVIATION . Apffel MARINE . Apffel/JLA/RSH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi54 min 37°F1013.3 hPa (+2.3)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi54 min N 5.1 G 8.9 30°F 1012.4 hPa (+1.5)21°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi54 min 32°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi54 min WSW 6 G 8.9 32°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.3)

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi58 minENE 410.00 miFair10°F7°F87%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W4W3W3NW4W3W5N4N5N4N4N3NE5N6NW4W6W9W7W4W5CalmCalmCalmNE4
1 day agoW17
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2 days agoE7E4E6SE5SE6SE6SE4E6CalmCalmN4N3CalmCalmSW3W4W9W8W8W6W11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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