Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cape Vincent, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 4:29PM Sunday December 15, 2019 8:51 AM EST (13:51 UTC) Moonrise 8:11PMMoonset 10:37AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ065 Expires:201912151615;;818399 Fzus61 Kbuf 151125 Glflo Open Lake Forecast For Lake Ontario National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 625 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Ontario Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..A 28.7 inch low over eastern quebec will continue to lift north today as it deepens 28.4 inches over eastern canada. A narrow ridge of high pressure averaging 30.2 inches will build across the lower great lakes tonight and Monday before low pressure of 29.7 inches moves just south of the lower great lakes and new england by Tuesday. 30.3 inch high pressure will spread into the eastern great lakes Wednesday. Loz063>065-151615- lake ontario open waters from hamlin beach to the saint lawrence river- 625 am est Sun dec 15 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..West gales to 35 knots. Snow and rain showers likely early, then a chance of snow showers from late morning on. Waves 11 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow showers through the early overnight. Waves 9 to 12 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Snow likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Wednesday..West winds to 30 knots becoming northwest 15 to 25 knots. Snow likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 7 to 10 feet building to 9 to 12 feet, then subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LOZ065


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cape Vincent, NY
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location: 44.09, -76.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 151207 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 707 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Deep low pressure will continue to pull away from the area today. Colder air being sent into the area behind the low will maintain some lake effect snow showers east of the lakes, heaviest over the Tug Hill region. There will be a brief break this afternoon through most of Monday, before the next area of low pressure moves just south the region with snow and a wintry mix Monday night through Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. Deep 975 mb surface low exiting across Quebec early this morning taking the system snow east of the area. We are now left with lake enhanced/upslope snows within the cold air advection as 850 mb temperatures steadily fall off to near -12c by this afternoon.

Off Lake Erie, broad spray of snow east of the lake early this morning. Radar not overly impressive and likely will not increase much more in intensity through this morning, although snow should continue through the morning hours as inversion heights do notch up a bit to near 6K feet, but profiles showing moisture becoming more shallow with time. Temperatures are still marginal holding in the lower 30s. All this should limit additional snowfall to no more than a couple of inches at best through this morning. By this afternoon, shallow mid level ridging and higher pressure starts moving in, with subsequent drying lowering inversions, helping to greatly weaken any lake effect. Backing winds will attempt to send any lake effect snow northward tonight, but developing warm air advection will decrease over-lake instability, so expect nothing more than flurries, if anything at all overnight.

Off Lake Ontario, system snow has just exiting the area and we will soon begin to see lake/upslope snows set up. Lake parameters look a bit better here than off Lake Erie. Moisture profiles are better and are maintained for a good part of the day today. Inversion heights, while not outstanding, do maintain around 8K feet. Expect an additional accumulations of around an inch across the lower elevations, and 3-5 inches across the Tug Hill Plateau. The higher accumulations will be limited to a small portion of the Tug Hill region where elevation is the highest. Tonight, shallow mid level ridging and higher pressure starts moving in, with subsequent drying lowering inversions, helping weaken and/or end any lake effect.

Outside of the lake effect, scattered snow showers today, but with marginal temperatures,little if any accumulation is expected.

Cold air advection will help to gradually lower temperatures through the day today with most locations in the mid to upper 20s by late in the day. It is be windy today with wind gusts of 30-35 mph across much of the region, highest on the lake plains close to Lake Ontario where gusts near 45 mph will be possible at times.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Monday is trending to be dry across our region as the main baroclinic boundary and precipitation remains to our south, across the southern mid-Atlantic. Precipitation will spread across our region by Monday evening with a second wave of precipitation, with this activity associated with a nearing surface low, and strengthening front entrance region of an upper level jet aloft. Recent model guidance is not bringing a layer of warmer air aloft into our region, but rather maintain temperatures cold enough through the lower levels to maintain all snow. Expect light snow to spread across our region as broad synoptic lift increases with low level convergence within an inverted surface trough extending into our region from the south . and front right entrance region of a 190 knot 300 hPa jet develops over our region. The deeper moisture and greatest lift will be closer to the surface low that will pass to our south . and will have categorical PoPs to our south and east, while some of our northwest borders that will lie farthest from the surface low will have just high chance PoP for light snow Monday night.

Snow Monday night and into Tuesday will be on the minor side, with just an inch or two Monday night, and an additional 1 -3 inches Tuesday. As the inverted trough passes us Tuesday, precipitation will taper off from west to east behind its passage. Colder air will then flow over the Eastern Great Lakes later Tuesday and into Tuesday night, with temperatures at 850 hPa falling down to around -12 to -14C. This will result in lake effect snow forming, to the east of the Lakes. Winds may back enough ahead of another surface trough late Tuesday night to bring snows as far north as Buffalo, while to the east of Lake Ontario a long westerly fetch over Lake Ontario will primarily orient the band of lake effect snow Tuesday afternoon and night towards the Tug Hill. While inversion heights will rise to over 10K feet east of both Lakes, and low level lapse rates increase to over 8 C/km moisture will again be marginal for heavy lake effect snowbands to form. Also 850 hPa low does not really close off, but rather is just a passing upper level trough . which can lead to oscillating bands of snow. As a result, snow maximums east of both lakes may just end up low - mid advisory range.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. A closed mid level low will track from the Great Lakes to the Northeast Wednesday. Surface low pressure is expected to track across southern Ontario and Quebec during this time. This will drag a cold front through western and north central NY. Guidance has been locked on that 850mb temperatures will fall to around -20C producing extreme lake induced instability mid-week. West-northwest flow will likely lead to lake effect snow east-southeast of the Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. The steepening lapse rates may also increase the risk of snow squalls Wednesday afternoon outside of lake bands.

While conditions look favorable for lake effect snow, this event also looks short-lived. A mid-level ridge will move into the region late Wednesday night into Thursday which will veer winds and cut off moisture. Drier weather expected late in the week while temperatures remain below normal.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. For the 12Z TAFS, snow has largely transitioned over to lake effect, with greatest duration of flight restrictions found across KJHW this morning. A few light snow showers will also fly across KBUF, KIAG and possibly KROC, with any IFR flight conditions limited . and as such will not be included in this TAF package.

There will be an increase in wind gusts as the departing surface low continues to deepen, especially east of lake Ontario where westerly gusts may near 30 to 35 knots today.

Tonight the lower elevations of KBUF/KIAG/KROC/KART will begin to improve from MVFR to VFR flight conditions as surface high pressure noses towards our region. This surface high will also bring a reduction in gusty winds. There will be a band of lake effect snow to the southeast of Lake Ontario, primarily between KROC and KART. A few light snow showers with MVFR/IFR flight conditions are also possible across the Southern Tier (KJHW)

Outlook . Monday . VFR deteriorating to IFR Monday night with snow developing. A wintry mix possible near the PA state line. Tuesday . IFR in snow in the morning, improving to mainly VFR. Wednesday and Thursday . A chance of IFR in lake effect snow east of the lakes, with VFR elsewhere.

MARINE. A low lifting across Quebec will continue to deepen through this morning. Westerly winds will continue at gale force on Lake Ontario, with gusts of 40-45 knots at times on the eastern end this morning. The westerly gales will start to diminish tonight.

Winds will not be quite as strong on Lake Erie farther removed from the strong low. Sustained winds will likely peak around 30 knots this morning.

Quieter conditions are expected Monday, while Small Craft Conditions may return Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure moves northeastward from the Ohio Valley to Canadian Maritimes by mid week.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. West gales on Lake Ontario through today will produce significant wave action on the east half of the lake, and combine with high lake levels to increase the risk of lakeshore flooding. Wind direction is expected to be nearly due west for the duration of the strong winds, which will drive the higher risk of Lakeshore flooding to areas from about Fair Haven eastward where the shoreline is more perpendicular to a west wind. Farther west along the south shore of Lake Ontario, winds will be parallel to the shoreline.

On Lake Erie, winds will remain lighter, in the 25-30 knot range. The wind direction is also due west, which is not quite aligned with the long axis of the lake and less favorable for a seiche. With this in mind, just expect a minor rise at the east end of Lake Erie.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NY . Lakeshore Flood Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ005>007. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ006>008. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ020. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ030. Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043>045- 062>065. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SLZ022-024.



SYNOPSIS . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA NEAR TERM . TMA SHORT TERM . Thomas LONG TERM . HSK AVIATION . Thomas MARINE . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . Hitchcock/JLA/TMA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ALXN6 - 8311062 - Alexandria Bay, NY 45 mi52 min 1000.4 hPa (+3.8)
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 45 mi52 min W 31 G 38 1003.6 hPa (+3.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 74 mi52 min 36°F 1005 hPa (+3.7)
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 74 mi52 min W 18 G 27 36°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watertown, Watertown International Airport, NY38 mi56 minW 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast36°F28°F76%1002 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KART

Wind History from ART (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE8NE8NE8NE7NE9N6NW5N3W4W6W8W11W14
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1 day agoS9
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S9SE6SE3SE4SE5E5E4NE5E3CalmCalmNE3NE5NE5NE5E4NE6NE6
2 days agoCalmE3S4S83S8S6SW6S4CalmE3E6E3S5S9
G14
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G18
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G17
S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Montague, NY
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