Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Two Rivers, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Small Precipitation Chances Expected tonight:

A shortwave near the Wisconsin/Illinois border, evident on water vapor satellite imagery, will lift northeast, bringing a chance of light rain to our southeast counties this afternoon and early evening. Increasing WAA/isentropic lift and deepening moisture may also lead to patchy drizzle tonight, with freezing drizzle possible over parts of far northern Wisconsin. Locally slippery travel conditions may develop later tonight. Widespread low stratus and fog is also expected.

Friday/Saturday System with Thunder/Heavy Rainfall Potential:

The main system of concern will impact the area Friday into Saturday morning as a strong low pressure system moves from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes. Rain is the main concern in the mild air mass, with thunder expected as elevated instability (MUCAPE of 500-1000 j/kg and 700-500 mb lapse rates of 6.5-8.0 C/km) arrives Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Forcing for the initial surge of widespread moderate to heavy on Friday will be provided by strong WAA/isentropic lift on the nose of a 35-45 knot low-level jet, and the passage of an 850 mb warm front. An additional period of significant rainfall should develop as the surface low lifts northeast along the cold front Friday night. PWATs surging to 1.0-1.3 inches across the southeast half of the forecast area, combined with convective potential, will lead to pockets of heavy rainfall. NBM probabilities for amounts in excess of an inch are highest (50-80%) from central into northeast Wisconsin. The area could see minor flooding impacts due to runoff from frozen ground, especially in conjunction with any ice jam flooding that may be ongoing by that time.

There is a marginal risk of severe weather across the southern half of the forecast area; therefore, cannot rule out some hail or brief gusty winds with any stronger storms, especially Friday night. CIPS analogs support a severe risk as far north as the Fox Valley, along with rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.25 inches. As a reminder that we're still in the winter season, it is possible that we will get a minor snow accumulation over far north-central Wisconsin Saturday morning. This will occur when a shortwave trough moves through and colder air arrives. Probabilistic forecasts only show a 10-20% chance of 1+ inch of snow in Vilas County, though would not be surprised to see a bit higher amounts than that.

A generally dry period is expected from Saturday afternoon through Monday night. Breezy southwest winds on Sunday and Monday will bring very mild temperatures, with readings in the 60s in our typical warm spots.

Another low pressure system arrives Tuesday and Tuesday night, but models have large differences in the track, which will greatly impact temperatures and precipitation type. The differences between 25th and 75th percentile max temps are quite striking; showing highs potentially ranging from as cold as the middle 30s north to as high as the lower to middle 70s south.
Once this system departs, colder air will return temperatures to near normal by the middle of next week.

Fog potential increases later this week as rising dew points and melting snow add low-level moisture. The greatest potential should occur as much higher dew points arrive Friday into Friday night. Fog development will be most favored over the northwest half of the forecast area, especially NC and far NE WI, where a deep snowpack remains.

Ice Jam/Ice Floe Potential:

In addition to the previously mentioned potential for runoff flooding from heavy rainfall with the Friday/Friday night system, there is a lesser threat of ice jam flooding. The ice jam threat should gradually increase by the weekend as warmer temperatures promote some ice break-up. The ice jam threat will be reduced a bit due to low water levels, though this may change after the expected heavy rainfall Friday and Friday night. An increased threat of ice floes on Green Bay could also develop, especially Friday into Friday night, and again Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Low clouds and stratus across north-central Wisconsin has moved north and west of the region this morning. Meanwhile, MVFR stratus across southern Wisconsin have advected northward across central and east-central Wisconsin as a low pressure system tracks well to our south. This stratus will continue to move north this afternoon and into this evening. Some isolated (~20% chance) showers will be possible near KMTW this afternoon. Some patchy drizzle or freezing drizzle across the north this evening should form regionwide tonight. Fog will accompany the low stratus, but it is not clear how low VSBYs will get overnight. An area of showers will advect in from the southwest Friday morning ahead of an approaching warm front with a high chance (50 to 80%) of affecting the TAF sites.

East to northeast winds around 10 knots this afternoon will veer east to southeast this evening and become southeast 10 to 15 knots Friday morning.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Dry and mild conditions are expected across the region Sunday and Monday along with gusty winds could cause elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 50s and 60s both days, with the highest temperatures expected on Monday. Dry dew points could cause relative humidities to fall to 30 percent or lower during the afternoon on both days. In addition, southwest winds will gust up to 30 mph on Sunday and 20 mph on Monday. The combination of dry, mild, and windy conditions could lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the area Sunday into Monday. The mitigating factor will be fuels, as recent rainfall will mean fuels should be fairly wet.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.