Sunday, September27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Prudenville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:28PM Sunday September 27, 2020 5:55 PM EDT (21:55 UTC) Moonrise 5:06PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 350 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202009280315;;458247 FZUS53 KDTX 271950 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 350 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-280315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudenville, MI
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location: 44.18, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 271922 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 322 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Monday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

. Turning cooler with periods of showers .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Mid and upper level flow regime taking on much more of a meridional appearance early this afternoon across NOAM, with deepening/digging northern Plains centered troughing bookended by east and west coast centered ridge axes. Northern Michigan centered squarely on the interface between upstream troughing and east coast ridging, with deep and fast southwest flow through the mid and upper levels. Shortwave responsible for yesterday's bout of showers and storms now well removed to our north across northern Ontario, with second positively tilted wave pivoting east into the northern Mississippi Valley. Weak cold front/surface trough stretching south from that Ontario wave, just now exiting off into northern Lake Huron. Not a whole lot of weather going on with this front, with driver of spotty light rain across northern Michigan and points southwest the result of deformation and developing elevated frontogenetical forcing ahead of that deepening upstream trough and embedded shortwave. Plenty of clouds and weak post-frontal cold advection has kept temperatures a touch cooler than those experienced the last few days, but current readings in the 60s and 70s still running several degrees above normal for this time of year.

Amplification process talked about above kicks into high gear tonight and Monday via strengthening upper level jets and additional shortwave energy set to dive south out of central Canada. Current northern Mississippi Valley wave makes slow progress east into the western Great Lakes, and when combined with deep amplification and upper jet support, sets the stage for more wet and eventually cooler weather for the northern Great Lakes in the coming days.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud/temperature trends and rain evolution through Monday.

Details:

Fgen and deformation will only increase with time tonight and Monday as lead wave pivots into the western Great Lakes and overhead upper level jet intensifies. Shower coverage/organization and intensity should increase accordingly, with these showers pivoting north across much of northern Michigan, especially by later tonight into Monday. Combination of persistent forcing and good moisture (precipitable water values in excess of an inch) argues for some decent rain totals by Monday evening. Still some question on where axis of greatest warm-side fgen response will reside, although trends support main axis of this forcing centering across northeast lower Michigan. Wouldn't be surprised to see rain amounts in excess of half an inch, with localized amounts near or even over an inch, by Monday evening where fgen response is maximized. Still plenty wet elsewhere, especially on Monday. Not seeing much evidence to support thunder, although suppose a few claps of thunder are possible across northeast lower Michigan where a few hundred joules/kg of elevated cape will reside. Temperatures will definitely trend cooler, with lows tonight dropping into the upper 40s to middle 50s, and highs Monday largely remaining in the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By Monday evening, well-defined troughing is expected to be positioned across the western Great Lakes with an attendant strengthening surface cyclone positioned to our east. This feature will ride northward through Monday night before trekking to near James Bay early Tuesday morning. This should allow for wrap around moisture to continue shower chances locally, most numerous/widespread Monday evening into the early overnight hours. Periods of unsettled weather anticipated to continue at times through the remainder of the short term forecast period - most notably Tuesday evening/night as another potent shortwaves slides to our north through larger scale parent troughing. Otherwise, cooling temperatures with predominately northwest flow is expected to prevail for much of the coming week, especially Thursday and beyond.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Shower chances through the forecast period.

Periods of unsettled weather is expected to be the rule across northern Michigan for much of this week, initially driven Monday night by aforementioned wrap around moisture combined with increase, albeit very marginal, over-lake instability. Shower coverage is expected to be most widespread east of I-75 . tied better to synoptic moisture/forcing. None the less, occasional showers anticipated west of the interstate as well along with falling temperatures as many fall into the mid-upper 40s for overnight lows.

A brief reprieve is expected across the bulk of the forecast area late Monday night into Tuesday as a pocket of drier air rotates overhead and low pressure to our east shifts well to north across James/Hudson Bay. While most locations will remain dry for the majority of this time frame, weak cold air advection may continue to bring marginal over-lake instability and low chances for showers across sections of northwest lower and eastern upper. Again, not expecting this to be too widespread or last very long in any single location, but certainly would expected some showers to dot the map in favored locations downwind of the big lakes through the day Tuesday. High temperatures expected to be within earshot of late September normals . ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s area-wide. Given strong upper troughing and closed upper-level low pressure nearby/overhead, wouldn't be surprised to hear some reports of waterspout development on the northern Great Lakes.

Tuesday evening through the first half of Tuesday night should feature in uptick in shower coverage once again given support aloft provided by a potent shortwave that's expected to dive into the region from the northwest, enhanced by continued increasing over- lake instability as H8 temps fall to the low single digits above zero promoting delta Ts in the 14-15 C range. While a decrease in precip coverage is anticipated by Wednesday morning, wouldn't be surprised to see occasional shower activity as additional weak perturbations race through progressive flow aloft, aided by continued instability over the Great Lakes. Wednesday's highs ranging from the low-mid 50s in the cooler/higher elevation spots to near 60 as you head toward the lakeshores.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Remaining showery with a period of much cooler temperatures are expected Thursday through the remainder of the long term forecast period as long-range guidance remains in agreement with strengthening ridging across the West Coast forcing downstream troughing over the Great Lakes. Shortwave energy combined with continued increasing over-lake instability should prove to be enough for at least lake effect rain showers, enhanced synoptically at times, along with cooler temperatures. Latest trends continue to suggest H8 temps falling to as low as -5 to -6 C or so by late in the period near Whitefish Point, which would be getting awfully close to being cold enough for wet snowflakes to mix in. This seems rather unlikely given a "mild" boundary layer suggesting all rain, but chances certainly aren't zero. High temps through the entirety of the extended period expected to range from the 40s to low 50s with overnight lows in the 30s for most.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Mostly VFR conditions expected through this evening under a high level cloud deck. Cigs start to lower overnight, and especially into Monday morning. Rain will spread north later tonight, likely impacting all taf locations at some point Monday. This rain will bring with it MVFR cigs. No significant wind issues expected.

MARINE. Issued at 321 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2020

Gusty winds into this evening (especially across northern Lake Michigan) will gradually subside overnight, with sub-advisory winds persisting through Monday. West winds become gusty once again Monday night into early Tuesday, likely producing more widespread small craft advisory conditions. Periods of showers are likely, especially later tonight and Monday. Temperatures will trend sharply cooler Monday and Tuesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 56 mi115 min S 7 G 8 73°F 1005.4 hPa (+0.3)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 61 mi75 min SSE 9.9 G 9.9 72°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 65 mi75 min S 6 G 9.9 68°F 1006.1 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houghton Lake, Roscommon County Airport, MI14 mi62 minW 510.00 miFair68°F55°F65%1007.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTL

Wind History from HTL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS10
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2 days agoW3CalmCalmW5CalmE4CalmE3E3E3E4SE3CalmS5S3CalmS5S7S8----S9S9S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.