Thursday, October29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Prudenville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:10AMSunset 6:35PM Thursday October 29, 2020 5:53 AM EDT (09:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:08PMMoonset 5:01AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 359 Am Edt Thu Oct 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through late tonight...
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy in the morning becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the south after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:202010291515;;007405 FZUS53 KDTX 290759 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 359 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-291515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudenville, MI
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location: 44.18, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 290743 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 343 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

. Cold .

High impact weather potential: none.

Cold front is crossing se portions of the forecast area, and will be exiting shortly. Shortwave-forced, post-frontal light rain in far northern lower MI and eastern upper has been diminishing to a little misty drizzle. However, a w-e band of localized higher moisture has been left behind. As colder air pushes back into northern MI, lake effect precip will get going, and that leftover moisture band will be the 1st place that happens.

High pressure aggressively builds into the plains and upper MS Valley today. In the north, a ridge axis folds over into far northern Ontario, nearing the tip of James Bay. This ridge orientation leaves us with a wobbly nne fetch today once we get past daybreak. This fetch leaves eastern upper MI with no lake effect issues. In fact, clouds will sharply decrease up there, with plenty of sunshine this afternoon. In northern lower, the prime area is ne lower MI, primarily near and east of a Rogers-W Branch line. However, the fetch here is somewhat short, and there is a substantial elevation dropoff and subsequent drying as incoming air exits Ontario for Lk Huron. Have boosted pops a little (instability is impressive with 850mb temps lowering to -6C over central Huron by late day). But will still keep pops only in the sct-chancy category. The other place lake effect precip could happen is skirting the Lake MI coastline counties of Leelanau and Benzie, and perhaps Manistee. Again though, small pops should suffice. P-type will be mainly rain near the coasts, and mixy inland.

For tonight, the surface ridge axis to the west edges closer, and our pressure gradient relaxes, but our fetch remains nne into the early overnight. Very late, our winds back to the nnw and nw. A digging shortwave will press into the western and southern Great Lakes. A compact area of deeper moisture and perhaps precip looks to move from central WI to southern Lake MI, only at best skirting us. But the backing winds and any synoptic-scale moistening will keep at least a chance of light lake effect going into parts of nw lower MI all night, whereas pops end in ne lower MI. Being displaced from any synoptic assistance, will keep eastern upper MI dry as well. Precip will tend toward mostly snow, though still mixy along the immediate coastline.

Max temps today will be a little colder, mid 30s north to mid 40s se. Min temps tonight will range thru the 20s, with perhaps some upper teens in eastern upper MI with less cloud cover.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

The remnants of Hurricane Zeta will be departing the northeastern CONUS as a large area of high pressure builds in behind. There will be delta t/s nearing 16-20C (with 850 mb temps of -10 to -12C and lake temps of 11 to 14C) and a bit of moisture to work with, but with high pressure building into the forecast area and an anticyclonic flow on the eastern periphery of the said high pressure . any precipitation will be very light sprinkles and/or flurries (probably won't see anything at all). This will however create lake effect clouds for portions of eastern upper, northwest lower, and the coastal areas along northeast lower through Friday evening. As the aforementioned high pressure moves overhead the cloud coverage will diminish to only mostly clear to partly cloudy.

Winds will be mostly out of the northwest Friday. These winds will be fairly light with any gusts remaining under 10 mph. Friday night as the high pressure mentioned above moves overhead . winds will be light and variable, and possibly even calm at times. Winds will become southerly by Saturday morning as a cold front associated with a low pressure system over eastern Manitoba (that stretches all the way into Oklahoma) begins to approach the Great Lakes region. As the pressure gradient tightens throughout the day Saturday between this and the departing area of high pressure off to our east, winds will intensify as the day goes on. With winds reaching up to 20-25 mph and gusts as high as 30 . especially along the shoreline areas of the Great Lakes.

Temperatures will be a bit cooler Friday . only reaching into the mid to upper 30s and warm Saturday with WAA on southerly winds to the mid to upper 40s. Lows Friday night will be chilly with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and nearly calm winds . dropping to about 20 to the mid 20s, although I'm sure some of our usual "cold spots" will drop below the 20 mark by several degrees.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

High impact weather potential: Continuing to monitor the potential of strong winds and accumulating lake effect snow late this weekend and into the beginning of the next work week.

The low pressure system mentioned in the short term forecast discussion continues it's eastward trek towards James Bay with the associated cold front still to the west of the forecast period (just entering western to central Wisconsin). The winds will diminish in intensity slightly overnight Saturday, but continue to ramp up throughout the day Sunday as the boundary layer mixes with diurnal heating. Some models give just partial mixing producing wind gusts in the mid to upper 40kt range and full mixing in the low to mid 50kt range over even the inland areas of northern Michigan. Winds begin veering and finally reaching northwesterly flow behind the departing cold front Sunday evening and also beginning to diminish in intensity by sunset. A strong area of high pressure builds over the midwestern region of the CONUS with very dry air and subsidence continuing to produce a tight pressure gradient between it and the area of low pressure continuing it's eastward trek across Canada and cold northwesterly flow over the Great Lakes region. There are some concerns as new models are showing only a short period of northwesterly winds Sunday night until the aforementioned high pressure ridges into the western Great Lakes region . with some very dry air for another short period. Another area of low pressure and associated moisture ascends on the forecast area from western Ontario Monday morning, backing winds to more westerly. As this weak system departs the forecast area . winds then veer back to northwesterly and then more northerly. All in all, there is a chance this will be more of a fanning effect over the area and not dumping snow over one location for most of the time . but rather spreading it over the CWA, limiting accumulation amounts for most through Sunday night into Monday. High pressure and much drier air build into the region Tuesday. This will provide precipitation free weather through the remainder of this forecast period. High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 30s Saturday and Sunday night and then gradually warm a bit each day until temperatures reach the low to mid 50s by Wednesday afternoon. Lows will be in the 20s Sunday and Monday night and then warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s by Tuesday night.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1146 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

Cold front continues to sag south across the taf locations early this morning. Post- frontal cold air advection will continue to lower CIGS to MVFR into this morning. CIGS heights will rise back to VFR heading through later this morning and afternoon, with skies scattering out as we head into this evening. Winds become north to northeast, at times gusty today.

MARINE. Issued at 342 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

N to ne winds behind a cold front will result in small craft advisory conditions today on the waters surrounding northern lower MI. Winds will diminish late today and tonight, while gradually backing as high pressure approaches.

Very gusty winds are possible this weekend, especially late. Gales remain likely, and storm force gusts are not out of the question.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ323- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . mb MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 56 mi113 min NW 7 G 8 46°F 1010.8 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 61 mi73 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 45°F
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 65 mi73 min N 4.1 G 8 44°F 1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houghton Lake, Roscommon County Airport, MI14 mi4 hrsN 010.00 miA Few Clouds38°F33°F83%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTL

Wind History from HTL (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW5W6W6W5W7W10W8NW10N7N5NW6NW5W4NW5CalmNW5CalmNW3CalmNW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.