Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prudenville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:40PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:23 PM EDT (21:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:27PMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 341 Pm Edt Sun Aug 18 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ422 Expires:201908190315;;844447 FZUS53 KDTX 181941 NSHDTX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Michigan National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 341 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ422-190315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prudenville, MI
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location: 44.18, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 181920
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
320 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 312 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019
high impact weather potential: isolated severe storm potential
southeast
pattern synopsis forecast: challenging forecast with a multitude
of mesoscale features creating havoc with the short range
guidance. Warm front over southern michigan, with MCV over
western upper and a cold front over northern wisconsin.

Primary forecast concerns challenges: convective evolution through
early evening.

Will there be enough destabilization with diurnal heating behind
the initial batch of convection to result in some additional
shower TSTM activity through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening? There is not much of anything upstream but the
airmass is still supportive of producing an additional
shower storm until we get the front through the area later this
evening. So will reluctantly carry some lower pops into the
evening hours, although wouldn't be surprised if we don't see much
re-develop. Instability parameters not that impressive (750-1000
j kg) and they really begin to diminish after 5 pm. Front slides
through this evening and we may see a few additional
showersdevelop with a slight uptick in forcing moisture with
fropa. Drier air begins to overspread the region later tonight
from northwest to southwest, helping to bring surface dewpoints
down. Prior to this, areas of fog may develop over interior areas.

Comfortable temperatures overnight, with lows in the middle 50s
to lower 60s.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 312 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

Rain? Not likely...

high impact weather potential... Minimal.

Pattern synopsis forecast... High pressure builds into the forecast
area for Monday and the day on Tuesday. However, a cold front will
move through the upper great lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Models have trended dry as the front moves through during
the night. Will leave the blend, and talk about various outcomes in
the next section. However, the temperature change will be strong as
we go from 80 on Tuesday to 73 on Wednesday. High pressure then
builds back into the region on Wednesday afternoon, and allows for
drying.

Primary forecast concerns... Main concerns is the varied trend
between the models. The GFS tries to bring something through E upper
while the latest ECMWF dry across the whole region, save for a few
odd points north of anj. The SREF has kept a line through the region
until Wednesday morning before forming something along the lake
huron lake breeze. Have opted for the nbm idea, during the dry
period so far.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 312 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal
extended (Wednesday evening through Sunday)... High pressure
remains over the region, and produces dry weather. Saturday and
Sunday, it looks like some sort of boundary is around the region,
and could be an issue, but the trend so far, from run to run, has
been for the chances to diminish. Sunday night on the ecmwf, there
cold be another MCS like was supposed to happen today. We'll see.

This has not been a good convective season for the models, so no
guarantees for breaking our dryness.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 132 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019
convective complex and cold front will swing across the area
through early this evening, resulting in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Still quite a bit of uncertainty in this forecast
and whether additional thunderstorms will develop after this early
afternoon activity. It appears that most (all?) of the terminals
may be clear of the thunder activity by 20z or earlier. On again,
we will have to wait and see if any additional shower or storms
develop behind this first area. Gusty winds through the afternoon,
with winds veering more southwest with time. Winds come around
more west northwest tonight with fropa. We may see some additional
clouds with FROPA but limited precipitation. Much drier air works
into the area late tonight into Monday.

Marine
Issued at 312 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019
gusty south southwest winds through early evening with
small craft gusts on lake michigan nearshore waters. Cold front
passage tonight and a period of cold advection mixing will bring
small craft conditions to whitefish bay st. Mary's river. Will have
to watch if additional parts of northern lake michigan and northern
lake huron also require small craft headlines for northwest flow
later tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lmz341-342-
344>346.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 6 am edt Monday
for lsz321-322.

Near term... Jk
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Jk
marine... Jk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 56 mi24 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 1007.8 hPa (-3.0)
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 61 mi23 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 73°F 1008.5 hPa
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 65 mi44 min SSE 4.1 G 7 76°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houghton Lake, Roscommon County Airport, MI14 mi91 minSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair74°F64°F74%1007.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHTL

Wind History from HTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W3CalmE3CalmE3E3CalmE4CalmE4CalmCalmCalmE3SE4E6S9S8S9
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1 day agoS9S6SE5SE6SE5SE6S6SE8SW3S4W6SW6W8W6
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2 days agoN6E6E5NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmS35S6S7S7S6--S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.