Sunrise 6:45 AM   Sunset 8:30 PM Moonrise 4:23 PM   Moonset 4:35 AM

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LHZ422 Inner Saginaw Bay Sw Of Point Au Gres To Bay Port Mi- 340 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon - .
Today - West winds 20 to 25 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Tonight - West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight. Sunday - West winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Sunday night - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.
see lake huron open lake forecast for days 3 through 5.

LHZ400
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 200714 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 314 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and breezy again today with scattered rain/snow showers.

- Breezy northwest winds expected Sunday.

- Rain showers Tuesday into early Wednesday along with breezy winds.

- Mild temperatures return late this upcoming week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing centered over the Great Lakes/southeast Canada will continue to pivot eastward today as the associated surface cyclone treks far to our northeast across Quebec. A second strong trough looks to dig south across Canada towards the region tonight.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds across the heart of the CONUS today, nosing into the region heading into Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Similar weather to yesterday is expected across northern Michigan again today. Persistent west-northwest winds on the backside of low pressure will remain breezy, gusting between 20-30 mph at times through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture will remain in place to support isolated to scattered rain/snow showers this morning into this evening.
Light snow is mostly likely across the eastern U.P. and higher elevations of northern lower where temperatures look to stay close to freezing under falling precip. Very little to no accumulation is expected. Otherwise, clearing cloud cover is expected later today into tonight with overnight lows expected to drop well into the 20s for those away from the immediate lakeshore.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low passes well to the north of the Canadian border Sunday resulting in a wind shift across northern Michigan and breezy conditions. Zonal flow aloft takes hold early this week in addition to a return to southwest sfc winds. Next trough and subsequent sfc low pressure system will swing through on Tuesday producing predominantly rain showers across the area and additional breezy winds. Heights aloft rise towards late week with warming temperatures and dry conditions.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy will pass to the north of northern Michigan on Sunday resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and breezy conditions during the daytime hours. Boundary layer heights approach ~5-7K+ ft AGL and mix into 25 to 30 kts through the column, thus, a breezy day will be on tap for the region (gusts generally 25 to 35 mph). Based on recent past, these types of setups have resulted in quicker low level drying and thus lower relative humidities that modeled. Thus, blended in some NBM10th percentile. Interior and southeast portions of northern Michigan could see elevated fire weather conditions, thus outdoor burning will not be recommended.

Next piece of energy and low pressure system will approach the region Tuesday resulting in largely rain showers across the region.
Hints of a little instability possible in some of the guidance as the low pressure system tracks generally to the north of the area, so slight chance for a few thunder-storms/showers. Nevertheless, probs for 0.5" of precip are quite low on the GEPS/EPS for this event (leaning towards the upper level pattern evolution within this guidance) thus not too terribly impactful in regards to the heavy rain threat. Anticipate some breezy to windy conditions as well with this system mid week with temperatures in the 40s most locations Wednesday.

After a cooler mid week, temperatures rebound quite nicely to close out the work week. Heights aloft will begin to rise, thus fostering a quick rebound in temperatures (from the 40s Wednesday to the 50s and 60s Thursday and Friday). Expecting largely dry conditions during this time but more active weather is likely shortly thereafter.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Deep troughing will remain over the Great Lakes region thru Saturday night...resulting in mainly cloudy skies but VFR cigs along with scattered light rain/snow showers. Surface winds will remain from the west at 10 to 20 kts overnight...
strengthening again to 15 to 25 kts on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

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