Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Randolph, ME

KEY MESSAGES
1. Warmer and drier today, with mostly dry and cooler weather expected through the day Saturday.

2. Widespread rain and falling temperatures on Sunday. Light snow accumulations will be possible Sunday night.

3. Crisp and dry conditions to start next week, but the long- range pattern remains unsettled deeper into the week.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low ceilings, fog, and drizzle may hold on for a time along the coast, but gradual improvement through the morning should lead to clearing by the afternoon. Models continue to suggest that southern New Hampshire may sustain an environment capable of additional shower development and maybe a thunderstorm with a couple hundred Joules of MUCAPE developing, but coverage looks scattered at best. This will be the last day of the above average temperatures and with winds shifting more northerly we may see them make it right down to the coast. Much of the area should see highs in the 60s, with southern New Hampshire potentially climbing into the low 70s. Cooler and drier air will be coming in on the fresh north/northeasterly breeze, so low temperatures look to end up in the 40s areawide tonight.

The upper trough cuts off and ends up as an upper low positioning itself offshore Saturday. The first part of the day should remain dry, but eventually the onshore flow will re- saturate the column and begin to increase chances of showers through the afternoon hours, especially as the cold front moving in from the west gets closer. This will be the first day of the cooling trend with temperatures only topping out in the 50s across much of Maine and coastal New Hampshire, and in the low 60s across inland New Hampshire.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Rainfall totals have increased across the board for Sunday, with the NBM mean now offering one-third to two-thirds of an inch. The higher numbers lie across the northern half of the forecast area, especially near the White Mountains where some upslope enhancement is likely. Unlike the previous week, dynamics will be on the strong side, owing to a 500 mb jet streak nosing into the region and rather robust height falls aloft. The 10th percentile is generally near or above a quarter of an inch. PWATs surge to over an inch on Sunday which suggests the potential for heavy downpours. MUCAPE remains near zero, suggesting against thunderstorms. Crashing temperatures Sunday afternoon suggest rain may change to snow as precipitation begins to wind down. Depending on how fast temperatures cool, there could be light accumulations in the mountains and near the Canadian border, with wet flakes more likely elsewhere. NBM mean is currently offering 1-2 inches of snow in the northern mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Cold and crisp to start next week as high pressure crests over the region. Both Monday and Tuesday offer high temperatures 5-10 degrees below average, with a hard freeze looking likely Tuesday morning.
Long story short, it will feel more like March than April. Generally sunny skies should take the edge of the cold though, thanks to the high sun angle.

A rather complex upper-level pattern becomes evident later into next week. An anomalous block develops downstream from Greenland to northern Quebec, effectively forcing this weekend's trough to retrograde west and detach from jet stream flow. Bottom line, the second half of the week is looking more unsettled than the first, with a few difficult-to-time waves that may move through the Northeast. However the good news is no one day currently looks like a "washout".

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 12Z Saturday...Low ceilings, fog and drizzle will continue for most terminals for another couple of hours with gradual improvement to MVFR. Most sites should return to VFR categories early to mid afternoon. MHT and PSM may see some brief MVFR in rain showers during the morning or early afternoon, but confidence is only moderate and if they don't end up developing VFR should prevail. IFR/MVFR restrictions return everywhere but HIE/LEB tonight as stratus moves in.

Outlook...
Saturday: Mainly VFR through the day. Ceilings will begin to thicken and lower Saturday afternoon, potentially introducing some MVFR by the evening with light rain showers as well.

Saturday night: IFR to MVFR restrictions possible due to marine fog and stratus at the coastal sites, but fog may also occur inland.

Sunday...Widespread restrictions and rain likely with scattered LIFR conditions.

Sunday night: Conditions return to VFR, except MVFR remains possible at HIE.

Monday: Mainly VFR with gusty northwest winds.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR conditions but scattered showers are possible.

MARINE
Sub-SCA conditions continue on the waters Friday and Saturday as we see a break in active weather. Northeasterly winds will prevail Friday as a frontal boundary sinks south of the waters.
Winds will then shift onshore Saturday as low pressure develops south of the waters.

W-NW wind gusts up to 25-30 kts are possible on Sunday night into Monday morning across the coastal waters with seas of 4-6 ft.
Otherwise, wind and seas are expected to mostly remain below SCA criteria through the period. High pressure should then allow conditions to fall below SCA levels by Tuesday. Higher waves are possible with unsettled conditions later in the week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.