Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Blue Hill, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
Surface high pressure south of Nova Scotia continues to slowly drift east tonight with increasing low level moisture off the Gulf of Maine. The boundary layer tonight will moisten significantly especially south of the Longfellow Mtns. Expecting low level clouds and fog to develop tonight as a steep low level inversion develops with moisture trapped below. S winds become light tonight with temperatures falling back into the low 50s.
Fog along the Downeast coast will likely become dense in locations and the potential exists for a headline, will need to monitor trends tonight.

Tomorrow will feature strong southerly flow off the cold Gulf of Maine waters with intially a lot of clouds. Expecting a partly sunny day especially across the northern 1/2 of the CWA Deep southerly flow 10-20mph will keep temperatures much cooler for the southern 1/2 of the CWA south of the Longfellow Mtns. Have opted to reduce highs significantly lower than NBM and other guidance using 18-25th NBM percentiles and other hi-res guidance. Highs generally 65-72F for the Bangor Region to Calais to Downeast Coast, colder in the low 60s at the shore. North of the Mountains expecting the warmest temps where in the North Woods will be a downslope wind highs top out in the upper 70s to low 80s. Warmest spots tomorrow will be the Estcourt area to Fort Kent, rest of Eastern Aroostook top out in the mid to upper 70s. In the afternoon a few isolated to scattered showers develop mainly across the North Woods and with up to 500j/kg of SBCAPE cannot rule out a couple showers becoming robust enough to produce a few lightning strikes mainly close to the Quebec border.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
The jet stream will remain to the north of the state through the short term, and in this position will pull most low pressure systems well north of our forecast area. That said, a weaker shortwave may push up underneath this stream, bringing rain into the forecast area from the south. The southerly flow will continue to advect moisture in to the area, supporting the development of fog across the Downeast region both Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Another shortwave will approach from the west on Thursday, with a trough of low pressure entering the area Thursday afternoon. This front could spark the development of a few thunderstorms, though these will mainly be confined to the North Woods based on the timing of the low pressure into the CWA, and how the boundary will slow as it approaches the marine layer, which will have moved quite a bit inland due to persistent southerly flow. That said, forecast soundings from the NAM indicate that there could be up to 1000 J/kg of CAPE in the North Woods Thursday afternoon with steep low level lapse rates around 7 to 8 C/km and 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear, which would support thunderstorm development.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Any thunderstorms that develop through Thursday afternoon will dissipate into the overnight hours Thursday night, though showers may linger across the north as the front slows and potentially stalls across the center of the CWA As the parent low begins to lift NE away from the region, there is increasing consistency across global models that this low could strengthen as it departs, leading to a tightened horizontal pressure gradient into our forecast area. This could lead to gusty winds through the day on Friday, but that said, the deterministic CMC does not have this solution at all. High pressure should build in Friday into the weekend, leading to a relatively drier pattern. That said, there could be a few isolated showers that develop across the north should mid level moisture hang on long enough to support their development on Saturday. Yet another shortwave could approach the area from the west on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Northern Terms...VFR tonight. Low confidence in BCFG/BR at HUL but may reduce vsby by AM. S winds 5-15kt becoming light and variable tonight. Tomorrow VFR with S winds 10-15kt and few gusts to 20kt.

Southern Terms...VFR cigs. IFR/LIFR vsby and cigs develop after 04z tonight with FG and DZ. IFR/LIFR will last till 12-14z tomorrow. S winds 5-15kt becoming 5-10kt tonight. Cigs improve to MVFR/low end VFR tomorrow. S winds 10-15kt.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night: Becoming MVFR/IFR with SHRA, with lowest cigs and vis at Downeast terminals. FG is also possible Downeast. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday: IFR early with SHRA possible, becoming MVFR at northern terminals and VFR at Downeast terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. IFR returns at southern terminals Wednesday night in FG.

Thursday: IFR at southern terminals in the morning. Otherwise VFR with tempo MVFR/IFR in the afternoon and evening with SHRA and potential for a TS at northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts, gusting to 20 kts or higher around any TS.

Friday: MVFR/VFR. SW winds shifting NW with high uncertainty in speeds, ranging from around 10 kts to 35 kts depending on the track and intensity of a nearby area of low pressure.

Saturday: All terminals improving to VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.



MARINE
NEAR TERM: S-SSE winds below SCA conditions through tomorrow.
Seas generally 1-3ft or less through tomorrow. Widespread fog and areas of drizzle tonight will reduce vsby less than 1NM tonight into tomorrow. Sea surface water temperatures from the Hancock County coast out 25nm including Penobscot Bay ranges from 48-51F this week. Water temperatures from the Washington County coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy Bay range from 45-49F this week.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas likely to remain below SCA criteria through the middle of the week, though borderline SCA conditions may develop Thursday night into Friday as low pressure passes to the north and winds increase, with gusts potentially approaching 25 kts and seas approaching 5 ft, though these conditions may not quite reach this level if the low remains far enough north and stable conditions linger across the marine zones. Fog likely to reduce visibility Tuesday night through Thursday.



CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.