Tuesday, December1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Blue Hill, ME

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 3:57PM Tuesday December 1, 2020 3:31 AM EST (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 5:55PMMoonset 8:57AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ052 Intra Coastal Waters From Schoodic Point, Me To Stonington, Me- 919 Pm Est Mon Nov 30 2020
.storm warning in effect until 7 am est Tuesday...
Rest of tonight..SE winds 30 to 35 kt, becoming S 25 to 35 kt late. Gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain likely in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon, then diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ005 919 Pm Est Mon Nov 30 2020
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Strong low pres tracks northwest of the waters on Tuesday and remain north of the area into Thu morning before tracking into the maritimes. A cold front crosses the region Tue night. An upper trough will cross the region Fri and exit into the maritimes Sat.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Blue Hill, ME
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location: 44.24, -68.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 010604 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 102 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Strong low pressure will approach from the southwest overnight and track well west of the area Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night. Low pressure will remain northwest of the area Wednesday and continue north through Quebec on Thursday. An upper trough will cross the region Friday and exit into the Maritimes Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. 1255 AM Update: 1st slug of rain making steady progress to the ne per the latest radar imagery. Some hefty rainfall amounts in the last 6-12 hrs across Downeast and into Piscataquis County w/1.50 to 2+ inches. Piscataquis River at Blanchard(BLAM1) has risen 3 ft in the last 6 hr and still climbing. Kingsbury Stream at Abbot up to 9.8 ft and rising. Back edge of rain pushing out of that region and now heading through the eastern areas. Stream rises should ease up some the next 3-4 hrs w/a let up in the rain. Elsewhere, some steady rises on the rivers and streams, but well within their banks. Temps continue to steadily rise w/WAA underway. Expecting the temps to continue to warm overnight. Winds continue to crank along the coastal areas w/Bar Harbor reporting a peak gust to 52 mph in the last hr. Cadillac Mtn recorded a wind gust of 61 mph earlier in the evening. The latest analysis showed the llvl jet has shift to the east a bit as Bangor has seen a drop in the strong winds over the couple of hrs, but winds could surge a bit longer as another round of strong winds hits. Expecting the strong winds to continue through the early morning hrs.

Adjustments were made to the pops to match the latest radar and blended in the latest HRRR. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the latest obs. No other changes attm. Headlines remain in place.

Previous discussion: 992mb sfc low is located acrs the nrn tier of PA with significant pressure falls into the Adirondacks. Pressure gradient is tightening up as sfc high rmns over Newfoundland/Labrador. Wind is routinely gusting in excess of 40kts acrs Srn New England at this time with KPVD reporting a gust to 50kts around 20z this afternoon.

Rainfall has mvd into cntrl areas with svrl locations reporting moderate rain at this time. Trend in heavy rainfall and high winds wl continue to increase drg the overnight acrs the FA. Hv continued with high wind warning for coastal Downeast and wind advisory for further inland locations. Still some questions remain about how much of the significantly strong LLJ can mix down to the sfc as questions continue regarding the extent of the stable layer. Hv continued with idea of strong winds ending in the Bangor region shortly after daybreak with a brief decrease in the winds drg the morning hours. A subsequent LLJ wl surge into far sern zones after 15z and continue into the aftn hrs. 18z NAM has shifted this secondary jet back to the west, thus end timing of wind headlines for 21z appears more than reasonable.

As far as rainfall goes, still expecting two rounds of heavy rain with the greatest totals over a wide area expected ovrngt. Similar to the wind, a secondary slug of heavy rain is expected over the far southeastern areas, though the 18z NAM has trended wwd with this axis as well. With upslope flow into the higher terrain rainfall totals hv been increased to upwards of 2.5-3 inches in areas south of a Houlton to Moosehead line. Cannot rule out isold higher totals, especially with any storms that can develop. Still expecting elevated instability to mv into wrn sections aft 06z and propagating thru Downeast thru the morning hours. Isolated amnts in excess of 5 inches cannot be ruled out especially over Washington County where they will likely receive two rounds of heavy rain. For this reason a Flood Watch has been posted for central and Downeast areas. While 4" soil temps remain in the l/m 40s over Downeast region the 4" soil temps here in CAR was down to 32 yesterday afternoon. Therefore extent of frozen ground is a wildcard as far as potential runoff goes vs infiltration. Areas in the Flood Watch are likely still seeing "warm" ground temps compared to northern zones but with rainfall rates in excess of an inch per hour in any storms that can develop hv chosen to err on the side of caution.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Rain will exit the eastern international border Tuesday evening after the passage of the warm occluded front. Mild air will remain in place during the night with lows in the 40s . which should ensure a record highest min temp for Dec 1st, and possibly for the 2nd. Plenty of low level moisture will also remain behind the occlusion with some light rain and drizzle possible into Wednesday morning. Highs remain in the mid to upper 40s on Wednesday, but no records are expected. There might be a bit of clearing later in the morning into early afternoon, but a shortwave rotating around the vertically stacked upper low in southern Quebec will organize shower activity towards the coast late Wednesday afternoon and cross the area during Wednesday evening. Timing will be crucial as temperatures will finally be cooling off Wednesday night. If the shortwave arrives early in the evening, most precip will be rain while a later arrival could mean an inch or two of snow across the northern half of the area. Moisture will freeze later in the night and could lead to some icy roads for early Thursday morning. 925mb temps will cool off towards -3 to -4C for Thursday and help limit highs to the upper 30s to around 40F. With the cold air advection and low level moisture, expect cloudy conditions to linger except in downslope areas and near the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Generally milder than normal temperatures will prevail through the period. That's the most certain thing about the long term as a split flow and blocking complicate the ability to nail down formation of any coastal storms. For now, will continue to go with the gradual passage of a northern stream upper trough for Friday into Saturday with the chance of some snow showers in northern zones and dry elsewhere. Guidance continues to flounder in determining if any southern stream moisture phases on Friday night into early Saturday, but both the 11/12Z GFS and ECMWF keep it south and east of the forecast area. The next threat occurs Sunday into Monday when some guidance hints at another northern stream shortwave pulling some southern stream moisture. For both potential events, the key is when a cut-off upper low in the southern stream opens up and sends moisture northeastward. At this point, virtually every model and every new model run paints a different picture for the weekend into early next week. Used a CMC/ECMWF/GFS blend as none of the deterministic solutions looked good in the extended.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: IFR most of the time through Tuesday with rain. Rain will be heavy at times overnight, especially Downeast. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near Downeast terminals. Increasing SSE winds, strongest across southern terminals. Strong LLWS through Tuesday will end from west to east late in the day.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night . Expect IFR cigs will lift to MVFR during the night.

Wednesday . MVFR cigs north of GNR and HUL will lift such that all terminals are VFR by midday. Some MVFR cigs may return to BHB and BGR late afternoon.

Wednesday night . MVFR tempo IFR due to cigs and snow. Snow most likely north of PQI. Falling temps and snow may lead to icy rwy conditions.

Thursday into Saturday . Mostly VFR for BGR and BHB, frequent MVFR cigs north of GNR and HUL and tempo IFR vis in snow showers north of a line from GNR towards PQI.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Storm warnings tonight as winds will gust over 50 kts. The wind has been gradually increasing this evening and is now gusting to gale force; and storm force gusts are likely overnight with an intensifying jet across the region. Seas will build to 14 to 19 feet on the outer waters, and 8 to 11 on the intracoastal zone. The wind will drop down to gale force in the morning, but will remain thru most of the day on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: A Small Craft Advisory will probably have to continue into Tuesday evening. The next advisory will likely start later Wednesday and continue into Friday night. The long period SE swell will slowly diminish Tuesday night into Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY. Confidence is high for heavy rainfall expected over Downeast, especially south of the State Route 6 corridor with 3 inches, and possibly as much as 5 inches, expected in a 24 to 36-hr period. 2-3 inches are expected in the Piscataquis and Penobscot basins with river/stream rises expected. The official forecast from the NERFC keeps Dover-Foxcroft below flood stage through Wednesday morning. One thing to note, the Piscataquis River has a low river bed and tends to rise rather quickly in heavy rain events. This river basin will see significant rises w/as much as 4 or even a 5 foot rises from this upcoming event.

The more significant concern continues to be the smaller streams and bogs filling up and water spilling on to the roads. This would be more of a nuisance or minor flooding issue, with a few road closures. The latest indicators continue to show the soil moisture at 75-80% for the northern and central areas, while Downeast was 45-50%. So some infiltration of rain initially is expected, especially across the Downeast. However, with that being said, the intensity of the rainfall especially across Washington County as being projected by the guidance and latest forecasted rainfall amounts, could lead to concerns for street flooding due to drains/culverts spilling over. Heavy rain rates are expected, especially in any storms that can develop tonight. Two rounds of rainfall are expected. The first is moving into the region at this time and remaining through the overnight hours. The second round will mostly affect the Downeast region on Tuesday and could produce several inches of rainfall.

A Flood Watch has been issued for areas from a Houlton to Moosehead Lake line due to potential for minor roadway flooding, as well as significant rises on streams and creeks throughout the watch area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. High tide tonight night and Tuesday morning coupled w/the strong SSE wind and high seas could lead to overwash due to wave runup. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for the tonight's high tide (11 pm at Bar Harbor). Although this will be a fairly low high tide, winds on the order of 50-55 kts and seas nearing 10 feet may cause minor splashover and erosion for sites such as Seawall Rd on MDI, Schoodic Point, and Rogue Bluffs.

The high tide near 11 AM Tuesday morning is of greater concern. Even with less storm surge, this tide is higher while waves will be up to 16 ft with a longer period. Again, wave runup is the concern rather than total water level and coastal flooding. This means Seawall Road and Schoodic Point seeing some overwash during the morning cycle. Given the strong SSE winds that are forecasted, some beach erosion is also possible such as at Rogue Bluffs.

CLIMATE. We are forecasting a high of 57F on Tuesday, December 1st in Caribou. The record high for December 1st is 48F, set in 1991. The last time we observed a high of 56F or warmer during the month of December was on December 14, 2010, when the high was 57F. The all-time record high for the month of December is 58F, set on December 12, 1950. Weather records date back to 1939.

In Houlton, we are forecasting a high of 58F. The record high of 52F was set back in 1975. The all-time high for the month of December is 59F, which was set on December 5, 1950 and tied again on December 11, 1969. Weather records date back to 1948.

In Millinocket, we are forecasting a high of 57F. The record high is 57F, set in 1934. Weather record date back to 1903.

In Bangor, we are forecasting a high of 58F. The record high is 59F, set in 2006. Our forecast low of 52F on Tuesday would also break the daily and monthly record warmest low; although it is possible the temperature may drop lower than 52F during the late evening hours. The warmest December low in Bangor is 48F set on December 20th, 1957. Finally, the record daily precipitation for December 1st of 1.15 inches is forecast to be broken. Weather records date back to 1925.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Flood Watch through this afternoon for MEZ005-006-010-011- 015>017-029>032. Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ011-015>017- 032. High Wind Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ029-030. MARINE . Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052.



Near Term . Hewitt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 22 mi44 min 57°F 48°F1007.7 hPa
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay 26 mi88 min SSE 29 G 39 55°F 48°F11 ft1005 hPa
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 26 mi88 min S 27 G 35 55°F 49°F18 ft1007.8 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 30 mi32 min SE 37 G 41 1007.2 hPa (-0.5)
MISM1 - Matinicus Rock, ME 35 mi32 min SSE 41 G 46 56°F 1004.9 hPa (+0.4)56°F

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME18 mi36 minSSE 35 G 437.00 miOvercast and Windy57°F55°F93%1006.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW3CalmCalm--SE5SE6----SE7--SE15
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1 day ago----------------------------------------N3N3N3NW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Naskeag Harbor, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Naskeag Harbor
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Tue -- 04:55 AM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:57 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:04 AM EST     10.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:30 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:42 PM EST     9.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.27.85.63.31.81.31.93.668.410.210.910.48.86.43.71.50.30.31.43.45.989.3

Tide / Current Tables for Sedgwick, Penobscot Bay, Maine
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Sedgwick
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Tue -- 05:03 AM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:58 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:09 AM EST     10.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:56 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:54 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:38 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:47 PM EST     9.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.37.95.83.61.91.31.83.45.78.210.110.810.596.741.70.40.21.23.25.67.89.2

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.