Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fishers Landing, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Regional radar shows multiple bands of lake effect snow oriented northwest to southeast across the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. Light snow with visibility as low as 3/4SM has been reported in these bands. A steady wind combined with temperatures in the teens have led to wind chills in the single digits this morning.

A mid-level trough is east of the eastern Great Lakes region this morning. Cold, northwest flow continues to produce multiple lake effect snow bands southeast of the Lakes while mid-level moisture pulls away from the region. Upstream moisture from Lake Huron and Georgian Bay is supplementing decreasing synoptic moisture with light to moderate snow showers southeast of the Lakes. Snow showers will continue across the southern shore of Lake Ontario mainly from Monroe to Oswego, however the upstream connection has led to persistent light snow across portions of the Niagara Frontier and Monroe county this morning. Similarly, snow showers continue across Chautauqua, western Cattaraugus, southern Erie and western Wyoming counties. An upslope component is also increasing snowfall across the Chautauqua Ridge into the Boston Hills.

Mid-level heights will increase as a ridge approaches from the west today. Surface high pressure will move into the Ohio Valley and boundary layer flow will become westerly by this afternoon. Light snow showers will begin to lift northward through the afternoon.
Additional snowfall accumulations will average 3-6" across Chautauqua, western Cattaraugus, southern Erie and western Wyoming counties and across Wayne, northern Cayuga today. Elsewhere, scattered snow showers with accumulations up to an inch are possible. Lake effect snow warnings continue for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, southern Erie and Wyoming counties east of Lake Erie and for Oswego county east of Lake Ontario. Winter Weather Advisories continue for Wayne and northern Cayuga counties.

The backing of the winds will likely re-invigorate lake effect snow showers with winds becoming better aligned with the long fetch of Lake Erie and eventually Lake Ontario this evening. Lake effect snow showers will move across the Buffalo Metro area however, moisture is very shallow and not fully into the DGZ. Snow intensity should be light and up to 2" of snow accumulations is possible tonight before snow showers peter out across Niagara county late tonight. Better conditions will will exist east of Lake Ontario as lake effect snow showers move northward across Oswego and Jefferson county tonight.
Deeper moisture will produce a brief period of light to moderate snow near the lakeshore. Additional accumulations of 2-4" are possible across western Oswego and western Jefferson counties tonight.

Temperatures will remain below normal today and tonight. High temperatures will range from the low to mid 20s, upper teens across the higher terrain. Low temperatures will fall to the teens, with some "cold spots" across the higher terrain seeing single digits.
Wind chills will mainly be in the single digits today through tonight, with some improvement to the teens across the lake plains this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Ongoing lake effect snows will continue to lift northward Thursday morning within a backing flow. This activity will also be weakening as lake parameters become increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear, decreasing moisture and lowering inversion heights. This break in snow activity will be brief, as a more general snowfall arrives into the region by Thursday afternoon and evening as a strong shortwave dives into the region from the northwest. This will be a quick moving system will moisture profiles not overly impressive which will likely keep accumulations limited to no more than a couple of inches for most locations. However, a cold west- northwest flow will allow for some lake enhancement for areas east and southeast of the lakes for an additional couple inches of snow through Thursday night.

The majority of the snow should end by Friday morning, as a weak surface ridge noses into the region and height rise aloft bringing a period of dry weather for Friday and Friday night. Developing southerly flow will bring a somewhat milder day Friday with temperatures rising into the lower to mid 30s for the lake plains, with higher terrain just shy of the freezing mark.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
...BITTERLY COLD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOWS OFF BOTH LAKES...

While there remains a great deal of details to work out, there is no question that it will 'likely' become bitterly cold. Highs both Monday and Tuesday will be found in the low teens and even the single digits
Given some winds anticipated
wind chill values will more than 'likely' be found easily below zero.

Now for the fun...given how cold the airmass will be there will be some accumulating lake effect snows off both lakes
How much
way to early at this point to get into the specifics but the signals are there
One thing to think about
with the anticipated 'ARCTIC' airmass it will potentially begin the process of freezing up the lakes. This will especially be the case for Lake Erie. Side note...Lake Erie didn't freeze last year (2024).

AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Northwest boundary layer flow will direct lake effect snow showers southeast of the Lakes today. Areas of IFR/LIFR are possible mainly at KJHW and KROC, however low flight conditions are possible at KBUF and KIAG through daybreak.

Boundary layer flow will back this afternoon through tonight. Snow showers will meander northward reaching KBUF between 03-06z, with areas of IFR/LIFR conditions. Show showers will approach KART this evening, however should stay just south of the terminal through 6z. Snow showers will continue to lift north and weaken between 06-12z tonight.

Another round of light snowfall will move into the region Thursday morning with another period of sub-VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Thursday.. MVFR/IFR with an area of general light snow moving across the area, and lake enhancement east of the lakes.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a small chance of snow showers.
Saturday.. MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain across lower elevations.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers.

MARINE
West-northwest winds will continue on the waters for most of the day. Winds will become southwest later today on Lake Erie and by this evening on Lake Ontario. Small Craft Advisory conditions may briefly end this afternoon, but winds will quickly increase again tonight through Thursday as another trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for NYZ004-005.
Lake Effect Snow Warning until 4 AM EST Thursday for NYZ012- 019-020-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Saturday for LEZ040-041.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LOZ042-045.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LOZ043-044.