Sunday, August18, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Hinesburg, VT

Version 3.4
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 7:55PM Sunday August 18, 2019 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:40PMMoonset 8:45AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hinesburg, VT
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location: 44.27, -73     debug

Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 181903
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
303 pm edt Sun aug 18 2019

A very warm and humid air mass will persist across the north
country through Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms are
possible this evening, mainly across south-central vermont. A
weak cold front approaching from the west Monday afternoon will
bring additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to northern new york and vermont Monday afternoon. High temperatures
on Monday will reach 85 to 90 degrees across valley locations.

Temperatures and humidity levels drop slightly on Tuesday, but
much cooler and drier air won't arrive until Thursday.

Near term through Monday night
As of 211 pm edt Sunday... Will be monitoring two potential
periods of convective precipitation during the near-term
forecast period. Warm and humid air mass in place (2-m dewpoints
in the mid 60s) could support a few strong thunderstorms this
evening in association with 700mb shortwave trough crossing
w-central ny and NRN pa this afternoon. Convective storms
through 1830z have been limited to s-central ny into pa, but
both the nam-3km WRF and btv-4kmwrf indicate some additional
northward convective development is possible, with the greatest
threat across s-central vt between 23-03z this evening. Included
30-40 pops from essex county ny ewd across rutland windsor
counties this evening to account for this scenario. If
isold convective storms can develop northward, SBCAPE around
1000 j kg and modest sfc-6km shear (20-25 kt) could lead to a
few strong convective wind gusts this evening. We will continue
to monitor. Otherwise, continued southerly gradient flow
combined with humid conditions will make for a warm night.

Overnight low temperatures are generally expected to range from
65-72f, with the warmest temperatures in the champlain valley.

Some patchy fog is likely as well, mainly across the valleys of
central ERN vt and within the northern adirondack region. If
rainfall occurs across s-central vt, there will be increased
potential for fog development later tonight in that region as

On Monday, modest 700-500mb vort axis translates enewd across
nrn ny into vt during the daylight hours per 12z gfs. This
modest feature combined with +16 to +17c at 850mb (thermal
ridge axis) could lead to some additional shower and
thunderstorm development during the daylight hours on Monday.

Sbcape values should be higher than today, with valley high
temperatures in the 85-90f range contributing to SBCAPE values
reaching 1500-2000 j kg. Absence of any significant height
falls and only weak upper support leaves overall intensity of
convective threat in question, as does modest sfc-6km shear in
20-25 kt range. Can't rule out a few strong to severe storms,
but won't include any enhanced wording with this forecast
package. MAX pops reach 40-50 percent for Monday afternoon
associated with potential TSTM activity. Also, it appears heat
index values will remain just below advisory criteria, likely
peaking in the lower 90s in most locations. Highest heat index
values may touch 95f in the upper ct river valley, aided by 2-m
dewpoints near 70f.

Drier conditions expected Monday night with weak nwly wind shift
and lower deep-layer rh values settling sewd across the region.

Should set up additional nocturnal fog and some slightly cooler
low temperatures. Have indicated lows in the low-mid 60s across
vt, except upper 50s in the northeast kingdom. Across the
northern adirondacks and st. Lawrence valley, lows mainly in the
mid-upper 50s for Monday night.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
As of 303 pm edt Sunday... Picture perfect late summer weather
expected for Tuesday with high pressure settling across the region.

Drier air will work southward from canada behind Monday Monday
night's frontal passage. Thus expect plenty of sunshine, lower
dewpoints, and highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The dry weather
will continue into Tuesday night, though moisture will begin to
spread northward overnight as the flow turns to the southwest ahead
of a potent upper trough approaching from the west. A few showers
may move into southern rutland and windsor counties late, but
overall expect any precipitation to hold off until Wednesday. Lows
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
As of 303 pm edt Sunday... Wednesday and Wednesday night are the focus
of the long term as a vigorous upper trough is expected to bring a
round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. However, still
uncertainty as to how things will play out since, as is usually the
case, parameters are not all quite optimally lined up. Moisture will
surge into the north country during the day Wednesday, though how
much is in question. The GFS continues to show the highest pwats
remaining to our south with a frontal boundary across coastal new
england, while the NAM indicate 1.5-1.75 inch pwats streaming into
areas from the champlain valley eastward. This has implications on
instability, as does the 700-850mb warm layer indicated by the gfs.

In spite of increasing moisture, there does look to be quite a bit
of dry air to overcome aloft Wednesday afternoon as well. A
prefrontal trough will precede the cold front, which won't arrive
until after peak daytime heating. However, this is a very dynamic
system, and 0-6km shear will be around 30kt. Have therefore gone
with likely pops for Wednesday evening, but subsequent shifts will
need to monitor for severe potential. Wednesday will be hot and
muggy as well with highs in the lower to mid 80s in many spots. The
front will push through Wednesday night, and precipitation will wind
down as a result. It'll be one last uncomfortable sleeping night
with lows remaining in the 60s.

For Thursday onward... Pleasant weather expected with high pressure
building across the region. The upper low will pivot across southern
quebec Thursday-Friday, so a few showers will be possible,
particularly in the northern mountains. However, dry weather takes
hold through the end of the week. Conditions will be much more
comfortable as dewpoints will drop back into the 40s and 50s. Highs
will be seasonable, mainly in the 70s, though Friday could be a bit
cooler in spots as the upper low spins just north of the
international border. Overnight temperatures will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

Aviation 19z Sunday through Friday
Through 18z Monday... Low (ifr MVFR) cloud ceilings have finally
dissipated across northern ny and vt early this afternoon, and
should seeVFR conditions with sct-bkn050-080 conditions through
22-23z. Will need to monitor evolution of isold-sct thunderstorms
across central ny as activity tracks ewd, with some potential
that isold thunderstorms could develop move across the northern
adirondacks into s-central vt early this evening. Greatest
threat would be at krut between 23-03z. Otherwise, expecting
redevelopment of ifr fog at slk mpv during the overnight and
pre-dawn hours on Monday with humid air mass in place. Next mid-
level trough across the great lakes will bring additional
scattered showers by late morning early afternoon Monday across
northern ny, with developing daytime instability leading to
potential for embedded thunderstorms. Included vcsh at kmss
Monday morning, but a bit too soon to narrow down timing and
extent of convective showers and t-storms at the remaining taf
locations. Winds at btv generally s-ssw around 10kts through
22z, trending south around 5 kts overnight. On Monday, winds
generally resume s-ssw around 10kts with gusts 16-18kts expected
toward midday.


Monday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Tuesday:VFR. No sig wx.

Tuesday night:VFR. No sig wx.

Wednesday:VFR. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Thursday:VFR. Chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Friday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Banacos
near term... Banacos
short term... Hastings
long term... Hastings
aviation... Banacos

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 38 mi32 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 78°F 75°F1 ft68°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT17 mi68 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F64°F53%1014.1 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT23 mi71 minVar 410.00 miA Few Clouds80°F64°F60%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS7SW7S7S4SE6S3CalmCalmS4S6S6--S3CalmCalmS5----SW8SW8S6S7
1 day agoS9S11
2 days agoN4NW7--N4N3Calm--CalmS4--------3S4----S7S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.