Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hinesburg, VT

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 4:14PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 7:10 PM EST (00:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:03PMMoonset 7:28AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hinesburg, VT
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location: 44.27, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 112342 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 642 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

SYNOPSIS. Lake enhanced snow showers will continue across the St Lawrence Valley this afternoon and evening with additional accumulations around an inch are possible. A front will propagate these showers eastward this evening with the potential for brief heavy snowfall across northern New York and along the International Border in Vermont. Drier but colder weather arrives on Thursday. The next chance for widespread precipitation will occur Saturday, with moderate rain generally expected across the North Country.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 623 PM EST Wednesday . Quick update made to the evening forecast, mainly to adjust PoPs through midnight to hone in on lake effect snow showers and northern snow squalls. Impressive squall moving through northern New York right now which produced a quick inch of snow per webcams and NYS Mesonet obs around 0.05" of liquid accum. This coupled with gusty southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph has likely produced whiteout conditions across area roadways in northern New York where snow squall warnings continue and are moving into northern New York. Strongest gust observed so far was 40mph at the Ellenburg NYS Mesonet site in the squall. Hi-res model output reflectivity from the NAM-nest as well as our local BTV 2km and 4km models is spot on this evening, and generally shows the northern portion of the line progressing eastward through northern Vermont over the next few hours while dissipating, and the southern end across the Adirondacks pivoting southward out of the BTV CWA, with additional accumulations of a half to 1 inch expected. After midnight activity wanes and skies trend clear by daybreak, which is handled well by the previous forecast.

Previous Discussion. Lake effect snow showers will continue to persist across our western New York zones for the next couple hours ahead of a cold front pushing east out of Ontario. Sounding profiles show convective depths across northern New York upwards of 10,000 ft allowing for very efficient production of snowfall. These lake induced snow bands have been producing moderate to locally heavy snow at times, with several sites reporting visibilities 1/4 to 1/2 mi at times. Area webcams indicate that near whiteout conditions are occurring in the heaviest of snow bands. Over the last hour, radar shows that these lake enhanced snow bands have begun to slowly propagate east with Potsdam and Gouverneur now seeing reduced visibilities and snow covered roads. These snow showers will continue to move east through the next several hours.

The main area of concern will be across our northern zones, especially St Lawrence and Franklin counties in New York and along the International border in Vermont between now and 03z. The best CAPE (70-130 J/kg), along with moisture and 925mb frontogenesis extends along an SW to NE axis from Watertown, NY to Pittsburg, NH. One limiting factor for locations outside the St Lawrence Valley is the lack of moisture in the low levels. Per latest observations, noting a lot of teen/single digit dew points within the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley along with points east. Therefore, by the time the front crosses into Vermont the better organized snow showers may be dissipating and becoming more showery in nature, rather than an organized snow squall. Again, the main concern will be brief reduction in visibilities and dusting of snow along with gusty winds upwards of 20-25 knots at times. Behind this front, CAA overspreads the area as winds turn breezy out of the west between 15-25 knots. These gusts will last through the early overnight hours, before abating after midnight.

Thursday is still shaping up to be a relatively nice day with quiet weather expected. High temperatures will be below normal for this time of year in the low to mid 20s. Despite some mid-level moisture there should still be plenty of sunshine around. High clouds increase towards evening as a shortwave passes to our north Thursday night. Ahead of this trough, winds increase out of the south towards midnight which will keep overnight lows from dropping to considerably. Expecting lows to remain in the mid teens to low 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 335 PM EST Wednesday . High pressure will progress well east of New England on Friday, allowing for a moderately strong southerly gradient flow to develop across the North Country. South winds of 15-25 mph are expected, and gusts to 30 mph are expected in the Champlain Valley. The southerly flow will also yield moderating temperatures, with highs generally in the 35-40F range, except slightly cooler across the Northeast Kingdom. Have shown generally partly sunny skies, as both 12z NAM and GFS suggest possibility of developing low-level stratus in the southerly flow regime. If a bit more sun occurs, a few highs into the lower 40s will be possible across the Champlain Valley and southern valley of Vermont.

The mid-upper level flow becomes increasingly amplified Friday night, and low pressure moving northward across the mid-Atlantic states will bring increasing clouds, followed by chances for precipitation (mainly after midnight). The clouds and S-SE flow regime suggest temperatures will not fall much overnight, and continued WAA in the 900-800mb layer brings in above freezing air aloft. Depending on when warm advection precipitation develops, there is a chance for a few pockets of sleet or freezing rain during the pre-dawn hours Saturday. This would most likely occur across nern NY or the valleys of central/ern VT, with a few icy spots possible, especially on secondary roads. Elsewhere, sfc temperatures should hold above freezing, and would expect onset of stratiform precipitation as plain rain in most locations. Have indicated 40-50 PoPs by 06Z Saturday, increasing to 70-80% by daybreak. Winds generally SE 5-10 mph, but may be locally stronger along the immediate wrn slopes of the Green Mtns (10-20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 335 PM EST Wednesday . Warm (above freezing) low-level thermal profiles in place as sfc low pressure is expected to track nwd across ern PA into central NY, before deepening to 985-990mb range across nrn NY toward 00Z Sunday. The low-level sely moisture fetch from the Atlantic advects in PW values of 0.9 to 1.0" across the North Country, which is roughly 2- 3SD above normal for mid-December. Overall looking at a moderate rainfall, with total QPF 0.6-1.0" across the region. May see some sharp within bank rises on area rivers and streams, but absence of significant snowpack/snow melt component should preclude any flooding concerns. Also noting esely 45-55kt low- level jet at KRUT about 2kft AGL. Given steady rainfall expected at this time, appears these winds will have a difficult time mixing down to the surface. May see a few gusts 20-30 mph along the immediate western slopes of the Greens, but more significant wind gusts are not foreseen.

As the deepening low departs to the north and east will see developing gusty W-NW winds, and precipitation ending as a period of snow showers, especially across the higher terrain. May see sustained winds 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph for a time late Saturday night through Sunday morning. May also see several inches of snow accumulation during this time frame as well across the northern Adirondacks and along the Green Mtns.

Conditions trend colder with diminishing winds on Monday with highs in the mid to upper 20s.

Prospect for the next potential widespread precipitation event occurs Tuesday into Tuesday night. The 12z ECMWF has trended offshore with the low track, with low center near the 40N 70W benchmark at 18Z Tuesday. The 12Z GFS is similar to previous runs, with a more inland track favorable for snow changing to a wintry mix during the day Tuesday. Kept PoPs near 40% at this time pending better overall consistency in NWP suite.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 00Z Friday . Mainly scattered to broken VFR with cigs in the 040-070 AGL range through the period. Main exception will be from 00-04Z when frontal passage and locally heavy snow showers push through with brief IFR conditions possible. Winds gusty south/southwesterly from 10 to 20 kts, trending west to northwest in the 01-05Z time frame behind the front before abating toward sunrise Friday. After 18Z Friday winds back to light south/southwesterly around 5 kts under continued VFR.

Outlook .

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance FZRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA. Saturday Night: IFR. Definite RA, Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . LaRocca NEAR TERM . Lahiff/LaRocca SHORT TERM . Banacos LONG TERM . Banacos AVIATION . JMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT17 mi76 minS 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F14°F51%1020.9 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT23 mi79 minSW 12 G 1610.00 miFair26°F10°F51%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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