Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 3:32 PM   Moonset 4:31 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 190754 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 354 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
After a lull in precipitation, scattered showers will return for today and Saturday, accompanied by some breezy winds. Temperatures will be seasonably cool, with highs ranging in the 40s to 60s. Drier air returns Sunday, with quiet weather to start the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Cloudy albeit mostly dry weather will start off the morning across the region this morning, with increasing winds as a low level jet strengthens over the region. Wind gusts between 15 to 30 will be possible at the surface, while the higher summits could see gusts up to 45 mph. Heading into the afternoon, a cold front will move eastward across the region, bringing chances for some light showers through the overnight hours. Precipitation amounts will this system will be light, with less than 0.25 inches expected across northern New York and even less across eastern Vermont as the front begins to weaken. High temperatures will climb into the mid 50s to the low 60s under mostly cloudy conditions and southerly flow. Overnight lows will be on the mild side as precipitation exits eastward, with temperatures in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

By Saturday, drier air will follow behind the cold front, along with brisk winds and cooler temperatures, with wind gusts between 20 to 35 mph. A fairly vigorous shortwave will swing through during the day on Saturday, bringing additional chances for scattered showers, with the greatest chances near the international border. The lack of available moisture will limit the potential for measurable precipitation with this system, especially with some drier air at the surface to overcome. Daytime highs will be on the cool, with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...A few lingering rain showers will be possible Saturday evening with the upper level trough axis swinging through the North Country. Based on the degree of cold air advection, we could see a few mountain snow showers right as precipitation comes to an end for little to no accumulation. Drier air quickly begins filtering into the region during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday which is expected to bring a decent end to the weekend albeit on the cloudier side. By Sunday evening, a frontal boundary will move across the North Country while shearing out. This will likely lead to some scattered rain and snow showers, mainly above 2000 ft, Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 353 AM EDT Friday...Buckle up for the roller coaster of temperatures next week as we transition from zonal flow aloft to a more amplified/meridional upper level pattern. Monday will be on the cooler side with highs in the 40s in the wake of the cold front that'll come through during the pre-dawn hours. However, mid-level heights will begin to rise in response to a developing mid-latitude cyclone over the central US which should allow a nice surge of warm air advection into the region on Tuesday. This should allow for temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s with some sunshine although winds will become increasingly gusty as the aforementioned mid-latitude cyclone shifts eastward. A strong cold front is slated to move through the region late Tuesday through Wednesday which should bring a nice swath of rainfall to the region with the latest ensembles hinting at a widespread 0.25" to 0.5" of rain. Nothing significant but enough to continue to quell any fire weather concerns. Following this frontal passage, an atypically cold air mass will descend across the region on Thursday with high temperatures likely to struggle to climb into the low to mid 40s with gusty northerly winds making it feel like it's in the 20s and 30s. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are both in good agreement with this period of colder temperatures with 850 mb temperatures anomalies of 12 to 18 degrees below normal. This will be short- lived, however, as the upper level flow begins to speed up and pushes the low pressure system responsible for the colder air out to see. How long the showers linger across the North Country is up in the air but it's a fair bet that upslope showers along the higher terrain look likely late next week.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR flight conditions prevail across the region as showers continue to move eastward out of the region, although some patchy drizzle may be possible over the next few hours. The next round of showers will begin to approach from the west about 17z towards KMSS and decay as it heads east. Around 12Z, increasing southerly winds and partial clearing are expected. Winds speeds will continue to increase around 15Z, between 9 to 15 knots, with wind gusts up to 25 knots. Some areas of LLWS will be possible with strengthening winds aloft, especially across portions of northern New York.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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