Friday, April16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hinesburg, VT

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:40PM Friday April 16, 2021 4:53 AM EDT (08:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hinesburg, VT
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location: 44.27, -73     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 160757 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 357 AM EDT Fri Apr 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Surface low pressure off the southern New England coast this morning will continue to bring widespread precipitation to the North Country today. Rain and snow taper off after sunset this evening, with generally drier conditions forecast for the weekend, though some spotty showers are possible. Unsettled conditions continue into next week with on and off chances for showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 356 AM EDT Friday . Forecast remains right on track for the next 36 hours with little change made. Current satellite and surface analysis shows a deep closed upper level circulation centered over PA/NY with surface low pressure right over the benchmark. Deep east/southeast flow continues to stream rich moisture in off the Atlantic with widespread valley rain/snow and higher elevation snow continuing through the night. Per area webcams as of 06Z, snow has made it to the valley floor across portions of the lower Connecticut River Valley and we've noted a slow uptick in power outages in Windsor county due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs. A few ski resort webcams still in operation show about 6" at Okemo, 4" at Sugarbush and about 2" at Stowe which is all right in line with what we've been thinking over the past 24 hours. As the surface low pulls northward over the Cape later this morning and pinwheels there for the afternoon we'll continue to see precipitation feed into the region mainly from the Adirondacks eastward while showers over the St. Lawrence Valley slowly taper off. Thermal profiles for today support snow continuing above 1500 feet while below a mix or a little more towards rain is likely with little additional accumulation. Storm total amounts by the end of the day still look to stand at 6-12" in the warning area and 4-6" in the advisory with the main impact being scattered to numerous power outages and potentially slick higher elevations roadways.

After midnight, the coastal low begins to pull away and precipitation will gradually taper off from west to east with just a few spotty showers lingering into Saturday. Highs today won't budge much from current readings in the mid 30s to low 40s, but should warm into the mid/upper 40s Saturday. Abundant cloud cover should keep temps from dropping below freezing for most locations tonight, with lows generally forecast in the mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 253 AM EDT Friday . Mid/upper lvl closed cyclonic circulation wl be slowly moving away from our fa, but still lingering moisture in the 850 to 500mb layer, along with weak channeled vorticity in the flow aloft wl produce additional chcs for showers. As mention by previous fcster, expect a diurnally driven showers, with peak areal coverage occurring during the aftn hours. Overall, qpf wl be light and highest pops/qpf values confined to the trrn. Temps are near normal for lows/highs during this time period, supported by 925mb temps in the 4-6c range on Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 253 AM EDT Friday . An active days 4 thru 7 anticipated, with trends for a slower/stronger system for mid week. Similar to Sunday, expect a few diurnally driven showers to develop on Monday aftn, but given less available moisture and weaker forcing aloft, anticipated limited areal coverage. Guidance has trended deeper with closing off 7/5h circulation for late Tues into Weds, resulting in a slower fropa, along with stronger low pres developing on front. 00z ECMWF even shows mid/upper lvl trof becoming negatively tilted as strengthening sfc low pres travels along sharpening 925mb to 850mb thermal gradient. This complex thermal gradient, makes for a challenging temp fcst, along with potential for precip to mix with snow, especially behind boundary late Weds into Weds night. Given the uncertainty in position of boundary, magnitude of developing 7/5h trof, and timing issues, have continued with a prolonged period of chc to low likely pops from late Tues thru weds time frame. Expect this duration of pops can be cut back, once better agreement is had btwn our large scale guidance. In addition, when event is captured by our mesoscale models, we will be able to fine tune thermal profiles and associated ptype issues. For now have utilized a model blend with highs near normal for Tues/Weds, before sliding back below normal for Thurs into Friday. If GEM/ECMWF solutions are correct with slower fropa, most of VT with progged 925mb temps in the 8-11c range, could see highs well into the 50s to mid 60s on Weds. Otherwise, drier wx returns for late week.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 06Z Saturday . Overall trend for the period will be towards deteriorating conditions where flight categories are currently VFR down to MVFR, and where IFR is currently persistence is the forecast. A mix of rain and snow will continue through much of the period with vsby generally 4-8SM in rain, and 1-3SM in snow. Wind will be variable less than 10kts through mid-morning, then trend northerly at 8-12kts.

Outlook .

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ012- 018-019. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VTZ008- 010. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ034.

SYNOPSIS . Lahiff NEAR TERM . Lahiff SHORT TERM . Taber LONG TERM . Taber AVIATION . Lahiff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT17 mi59 minSSE 710.00 miLight Rain40°F33°F77%1006.7 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT23 mi62 minN 02.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F33°F100%1008.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3S5SE4E3SE103E10
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4NW4NW3N6N4NW8NW7W7NW7NW7NW10N8N5N5N7NW4CalmCalmCalmE4E6E9
2 days agoNE3NE4NE3Calm3NW74NW9N10NW11NW9NW9NW12N11NW6NW6NW3NW3NW5W4N5NW3CalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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