Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vergennes, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...Variable clouds will give way to partial to full sunshine by later this morning/afternoon from north to south as high pressure builds into the region (far southern counties may hold onto clouds a bit longer). Outside a stray early morning light shower central/south, dry weather is expected with pleasant highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s under light northerly flow less than 10 mph.

Mainly quiet weather then continues for tonight into Sunday. There will be gradual increase in cloud cover with a few, spotty light showers possible central/southern counties on Sunday with the passage of a very weak mid level shortwave trough, but QPF is scant and very light where showers do occur and most areas should remain dry. Temperatures remain within a degree or two of seasonal mid-June norms.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...The end of the weekend continues to look mainly quiet and for most on the dry side. Upper level flow will look to remain zonal with some northwesterly flow leading to temperatures close to seasonal normals. Highs in the mid 70s and with lows down into the low to mid 50s. Weak shortwave energy associated with the marginal northwest flow, along with dew points near 60, could help develop some weak instability and showers, primarily over the mountains during the day Monday. Otherwise, most locations should be dry with mostly cloudy skies expected.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 235 AM EDT Saturday...The long term overall does not have any highly impactful weather as of right now, however warming temperatures and dew points will lead to daily instability with chances for showers and thunderstorms everyday. A weakly amplified positively tilted upper level trough will slowly move eastward over the course of the week. This will keep the area firmly in the warm sector with ensemble temperatures 5- 10 degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s early week to mid 80s by mid to late week.
Dewpoints will also trend into the 60s making it feel more on the humid side as well. Thermodynamics and open wave energy will lead to daily instability development. The greatest chance for showers and thunderstorms exists Wednesday and Thursday from an approaching front which could bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms, which we will monitor closely in the coming days.
Highest PoPs in the extended portion are generally 65-80% on Thursday afternoon. Winds also will generally be on the breezy side through the extended period with the instability around. Tuesday afternoon looks to be the windiest of the long term with a nose of an 850mb jet scraping the region as it moves northeastward across the St. Lawrence Valley.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...VFR conditions under light northerly flow less than 10 kts expected during the forecast period. Spotty light sprinkles possible at SLK/PBG/BTV/MPV/RUT through 12Z, otherwise no precipitation is expected. Skies generally BKN/OVC from 060-120 AGL through 12Z, then scattering out to generally mid-high clouds thereafter with mainly SKC at MSS/EFK as high pressure noses southward from Canada.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.