Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Vergennes, VT

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:14PM Thursday December 12, 2019 9:22 AM EST (14:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:49PMMoonset 8:35AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vergennes, VT
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location: 44.27, -73.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 121128 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 628 AM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. A chilly day with intervals of sun expected across the North Country as high pressure passes to our south. An area of low pressure developing along the East Coast on Friday will produce a widespread cold rain event on late Friday night into Saturday. A few pockets of freezing drizzle are possible on Friday afternoon into the evening hours, across central, eastern and southern Vermont. Temperatures mainly in the 20s today, but warm back into the 30s on Friday and 40s on Saturday, before cooler air and snow showers return for Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 621 AM EST Thursday . Cold air moving over the relative warm Great Lakes, combined with westerly upslope flow is helping to produce clouds with a few light snow showers across the dacks into the mtns of VT. Have updated to increase cloud cover and continue mention of some light snow showers/flurries, mainly in the higher trrn. Soundings show moisture is very limited so any accumulation this morning will be minor. Also, did bump winds up a little acrs the cpv on Friday morning as latest nam3km and 00z btv 4km shows enhanced channeling on aligned southerly flow with bottom of the mixed layer supporting gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range. Enjoy the relatively light winds today, as they are anticipated to return for the cpv by Friday morning. Rest of fcst in good shape.

Previous discussion: A relatively quiet wx day anticipated with chilly temps acrs our fa. 1040mb high pres will shift acrs central PA today, while 850mb westerly flow slowly weakens. A few lingering mtn snow flurries or a brief snow shower is possible in the favorable upslope regions, during the morning hours. Clouds will be tricky, as upstream lake enhanced moisture, combined with llvl upslope ascent continues to produce clouds acrs our fa. Thinking intervals of clouds wl prevail, especially in the trrn. Progged 925mb temps range btwn -9c and -11c by 18z this aftn, supporting highs upper teens/lower 20s mtns to mid/upper 20s in the warmer valleys. NAM12 and GFS show some increasing mid level moisture toward 21z today, along with sfc to 850mb winds veering back to the south, which will support a chc of lake enhanced snow showers impacting southern SLV/western dacks. Have mention some low chc pops, but any accumulations will be light.

Tonight, cwa is under moderate 925mb to 850mb waa as south to southwest llvl jet increases at 35 to 45 knots. This will result in a tricky temp fcst with a shallow/sharp llvl inversion developing in the deeper valleys. In addition, a few scattered snow showers are possible, associated with mid lvl moisture and waa lift, especially northern dacks into northern VT mtns. Temps mainly mid teens to lower/mid 20s, with some warming expected overnight, especially wider valleys.

Friday, some uncertainty on the development of light drizzle/freezing drizzle acrs our se zns, as NAM/NAM 3km is most aggressive with llvl moisture, while gfs/ecwmf delay onset of light precip by 3 to 6 hours. As sfc high pres shifts toward eastern Canada, developing low pres acrs the se conus will produce an increase south/southeast 925mb to 850mb wind profiles. These winds will advect llvl Atlantic moisture back into eastern/southern VT zns by 00z Friday. Soundings at VSF show very limited moisture/ice in favorable snow growth zone, with saturation occurring in the bl to 850mb layer, supporting drizzle/freezing drizzle depending upon 2m temps. Have mention schc/chc pops to cover this potential. Any ice accumulation will be very light, with main impacts being areas of slick travel possible. Highs on Friday generally in the mid/upper 30s, except l/m 30s deeper/protected valleys of eastern VT.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 316 AM EST Thursday . For Friday night, surge of warm, moist low-level air will continue to advect into the North Country. Based on forecast soundings, it appears drizzle/freezing drizzle will be favored overnight with most areas in the 30s overnight. High-res guidance depicts a robust swath of drizzle generating a few hundredths of QPF, such that a light glaze to a few hundredths could coat elevated surfaces overnight for portions of eastern Vermont and the Adirondacks. After midnight, the atmospheric column should continue to moisten and produce cloud ice such that we see more substantial hydrometeors. A few cold hollows and some of the higher summits will continue to hover near the freezing point before sunrise. There could be some localized pockets of freezing rain over central/eastern VT. Otherwise, a quick transition to rain around sunrise should limit overall impacts to the morning commute.

It will still be rather messy due to widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation as a result of a strengthening surface low lifting north over the area. There are some potential hydro concerns. Anomalous PWATs approaching 1.0" and vigorous synoptic forcing for ascent will result in some moderate to locally heavy rain with south-central Vermont on the western periphery of the heaviest precipitation. Forecast soundings even depict a pocket of elevated instability due to the strength of the mid-level warm layer that develops overhead. 850mb temperatures will approach 10 C. This along with the downslope flow on the western side of the Greens from a 45-55kt low-level jet will result in substantial warming and loss of snow-pack. A few models depict portions of Vermont warming well into the 50s, but leaned closer to blended data for now, keeping most in the lower to mid 40s. Coupled with the rainfall amounts of 0.66-1.00", we could see some sharp river rises, particularly over south-central Vermont. We will continue to monitor, but the good news is that the low tracks quickly northward.

Other than that, despite the 45-55kt low-level jet, the low-level atmosphere should be quite stable. There could still be a few gap winds in and around the western slopes of the Greens, and used some high-res data in support of the idea to reflect this potential. As our surface low tracks north, winds become south to southwesterly. This will bring in a modest dry slot across eastern Vermont, while wrap around moisture should keep precipitation ongoing across Northern New York.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 316 AM EST Thursday . Wrap around precipitation will continue into Saturday night, with precipitation tapering towards the high peaks as deep moisture decreases in unblocked flow. The transition to snow will be gradual due to the mid-level low track, but we should still transition by midday Sunday to restore at least 2"-4" of snow to the higher elevations. Conditions becoming drier and cooler into Monday as cold air advects into the region and surface high slides overhead.

Another system is still poised to reach the North Country on Tuesday with models still disagreeing on its placement. Behind this system will be a round of very cold temperatures following a polar front Tuesday night/Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Through 12Z Friday . Upslope and lake enhanced clouds and flurries continue to impact slk with intervals of mvfr cigs/vis. Expect these conditions to improve by 15z. Elsewhere, sfc high pres will provide taf sites with vfr conditions on westerly winds of 5 to 15 knots. These winds will shift to the south at 5 to 10 knots by evening and increase at BTV with gusts up to 20 knots by 10z Friday. A few light snow showers as a weak lake effect snow band lifts acrs SLK/MSS this aftn with brief period of mvfr vis possible. As low level wind fields increase aft 06z tonight, expect areas of shear and turbulence to increase toward 12z Friday, especially over complex trrn.

Outlook .

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance FZDZ. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance DZ, Slight chance FZDZ. Saturday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Likely DZ. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Taber SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Taber


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT16 mi28 minNW 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F7°F50%1038.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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