Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:56AM||Sunset 7:46PM||Wednesday April 21, 2021 7:56 AM EDT (11:56 UTC)||Moonrise 1:03PM||Moonset 3:32AM||Illumination 71%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vergennes, VTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS61 KBTV 211147 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 747 AM EDT Wed Apr 21 2021
SYNOPSIS. An active period of weather is expected today through Thursday across all of northern New York and Vermont. Rain and snow will move across Vermont and northeast New York through mid-morning while snow starts to overspread the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks. This snow will then spread east and become moderate to heavy at times over the remainder of northern New York and the northern half of Vermont during the afternoon hours. At the same time rain is expected over much of central and southern Vermont with some thunderstorms expected as well. The steadier precipitation will move out of the area tonight, but snow showers will continue in the mountains. Colder and windy conditions are expected for Thursday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 734 AM EDT Wednesday . A mix of snow and rain is falling across the North Country. Have adjusted the temperatures around region down a couple degrees as wet bulbing has taken hold everywhere. With that, some areas in the lower valleys have seen more snow in their rain snow mix, but even still, most valleys remain above freezing. Beyond that, precipitation is playing out as forecasted. Previous discussion follows.
Have expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to include the northern Saint Lawrence Valley of New York and in Vermont the eastern portions of Franklin and Chittenden counties as well as Lamoille, Orleans, and Essex counties. The advisory in Vermont will not start until 2pm this afternoon, but will end at 8am on Thursday, the same time as the advisory in northern New York.
The weather will change quite often over the next 36 hours. An area of precipitation associated with a frontal boundary will continue to lift northeast this morning across portions of eastern New York and Vermont. The majority of this precipitation is in the form of rain, but wet bulbing is helping to cool the lower levels of the column and there could be some snow mixing in at the lower elevations with snow above 2000 feet. Amounts will generally be light. At the same time we will see the main area of precipitation move into the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks as the morning wears on. Temperatures are cold enough for snow and thus expecting some accumulations this morning.
The strongest forcing and best convective potential will exist between Noon and 8pm across the entire area. We will see the area of snow across northern New York move east across the northern half of Vermont during the afternoon while the southern half of Vermont is warm enough for rain. Precipitation rates will be increasing and thinking is isolated thunderstorms will develop across Rutland, Windsor, and Orange counties. Accumulating snow will take place over the northern half of Vermont and despite the northern Champlain Valley not being in an advisory snowfall amounts have been increased into the 1 to 3 inch range and the majority of this will likely occur in and around the late afternoon and evening commute. So difficult travel can be expected.
The bulk of the steadier precipitation will move east of the area tonight, but northwest flow aloft develops and upslope snow will continue across the northern Adirondacks of New York and the northern half of Vermont. Additional snow accumulations are expected. Total snow accumulations for the northern Saint Lawrence Valley will be in the 3 to 5 inch range, and 3 to 7 inches over the remainder of the Saint Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks of New York. For the advisory area in Vermont looking at 3 to 6 inches, especially over the higher terrain.
On Thursday any lingering snow showers in the mountains will come to an end, but gusty northwest winds will exist with frequent gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range and even higher gusts in the mountains. High temperatures will only be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 1005 PM EDT Tuesday . For Thursday night into the morning hours on Friday, we'll see the backside of the upper trough push east of the North Country while a 500hPa ridge starts to nose in. The coldest air will start to shift east, and any lingering moisture across the Northeast Kingdom will finally make its departure. Still below average temperatures for the forecast area this time of year. Anticipate near to just above freezing temperatures in the lower valleys, and in the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont mid to upper 20s.
Surface low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure off the Mid- Atlantic will still be present, but both will be weakening. This will slacken pressure gradients some, but it will still be plenty breezy on Friday. Temperatures will begin to moderate under the influence of the 500hPa ridge, but it will be a bit on the cool side of seasonal norms, and the breezy 25 to 35 mph west winds will keep it from feeling completely pleasant under the mostly clear skies. Low temperatures will be perfectly seasonable, generally in the 30s.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1005 PM EDT Tuesday . Saturday looks like a pleasant day. Light winds, temperatures in the 60s, and mostly clear skies are expected as our 500hPa ridge amplifies. Overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Of course, the amplification of the ridge is in response to a northern stream vort and southern stream vort moving east. It appears some level of phasing takes place between the two systems as well. In this case, it looks like boundary layer temperatures will be warm enough to keep things all rain. The surface low off the coast will develop underneath a favorable upper jet configuration, and it looks like we see another round of beneficial, needed rainfall across the region throughout the day on Sunday. Based on NBM and other probabilistic guidance, this looks to be in the quarter to two-thirds of an inch range forecast with the highest amounts across southern Vermont.
A few high elevation snow showers will be possible late Sunday into early Monday, before we start the new week with a drying trend and seasonable temperatures.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 12Z Thursday . Most stations are currently MVFR and IFR with KPBG the lone VFR spot. Conditions could improve briefly back to MVFR 14z and 18z, but will then sharply fall back into the IFR and LIFR categories due to heavier rain and snow between 18z and 02z. Winds will be under 10 knots this morning and then pick up from the northwest after 18z with gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Thursday for VTZ003-004-006-016-017. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for NYZ026-027- 029>031-087.
SYNOPSIS . Evenson NEAR TERM . Evenson/Verasamy SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Evenson/Verasamy
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|Burlington, Burlington International Airport, VT||16 mi||62 min||NNE 4||6.00 mi||Light Rain Snow Fog/Mist||35°F||32°F||89%||1011.3 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KBTV
Wind History from BTV (wind in knots)
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