Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tawas City, MI
December 9, 2023 2:46 AM EST (07:46 UTC)
Sunrise 7:55AM Sunset 5:00PM Moonrise 4:18AM Moonset 2:39PM
LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 939 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Saturday through Saturday evening...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Rain likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Saturday through Saturday evening...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Rain likely. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ300
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 090445 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 944 EST Fri Dec 8 2023
Low pressure continues to develop over SW Ontario late this evening...with a stationary front connecting this low to a weaker area of low pressure developing over the Southern Plains.
Low clouds are beginning to increase across our CWA as deep low level moisture surges northward into the Western Great Lakes well in advance of this system. Low clouds will continue to increase overnight as rain showers gradually develop from SW to NE across our CWA during the early morning hours of Saturday. Relatively mild conditions will persist overnight low temps only fall into the upper 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the low to mid 40s across Northern Lower Michigan.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
Cloudy and Mild with Rain Arriving Late...
High Impact Weather...None is expected.
Primary Forecast Concerns...Timing of the Rain.
991 mb low pressure over northern Minnesota will track northeast into Canada tonight while 1001 mb currently across Oklahoma approaches from the southwest while deepening. Lift/deep moisture associated with the southern system arrives late tonight. This should spread rain into southwest zones after midnight on into much of the remainder of northern lower by early Saturday.
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph tonight should hold temperatures from falling off too much. Lows only expected to range from the upper 30s to mid 40s which in combination with dewpoints of well above freezing to melt down much of the remaining snow on the ground where there still is some.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Increasing lake effect/enhanced snow showers late this weekend/early next week with a return of colder temperatures.
Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Saturday morning, longwave troughing centered across the nation's midsection...
sandwiched between ridging over both coasts. Embedded shortwave expected to be over MN with attendant low pressure centered over southeast WI. This system will continue to trek north through Saturday, becoming situated near James Bay by Saturday evening. Much cooler air to follow this system for the second half of the weekend into the start of next week.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Saturday. Cooler Saturday night onward with some snow possible across parts of northern MI.
Low pressure passes by to our west Saturday morning continuing to drive rain chances from north to south across northern MI. Latest trends have the bulk of notable precip exiting the forecast area by 18-20z. Morning probabilistic guidance still hinting at highest chances of 0.25" QPF (50-75%) west of I-75. 25-35% chance across that same area of 0.50" Lower probs for those some thresholds elsewhere.
Cooler air begins to arrive Saturday afternoon and evening, reinforced by a secondary cold front Saturday night. Lingering synoptic support combined with an increasingly favorable over-water thermal gradient will likely prove to be enough to activate lake processes. Additional scattered/rain snow showers Saturday evening turn to primarily snow overnight with low probabilities over some minor accumulation across the higher terrain.
Snow chances perhaps briefly enhanced early Sunday morning before activity transitions to primarily pure lake effect as lingering synoptic supports departs...potentially continuing to some extent into Monday. Latest day 3-4 probs for 2"+ of snow still pretty low at this juncture (25-35% chance)...largely focused across the typical snow belts of northwest lower. As the prior forecaster mentioned, low probs Sunday night/early Monday for some freezing drizzle to mix in as well given cloud tops struggling to reach -10 C.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Shortwave ridging crosses the western Great Lakes Monday night. A northern stream wave punches toward the northern Lakes by late Monday night - Tuesday before some signals that longwave ridging at least briefly returns toward the end of the forecast period.
Overall, not a lot in the way of potential high impact weather through the long term, but certainly some nuisance precip chances remain. Low pressure passing to our north late Monday night - Tuesday is expected to send a cold front across the region through that time frame, perhaps providing enough support to kick off some snow showers -- especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Latest ensemble trends favor another period with above to well- above normal temperatures arriving by Thursday into Friday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Complex area of low pressure will move thru the Western Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours...producing widespread rain showers across Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan starting overnight and continuing into Saturday morning. Rain showers will diminish Saturday afternoon behind the associated cold front...but will increase again Saturday night as rain becomes mixed with and/or changes to snow with the arrival of colder air behind the cold front. Prevailing conditions will be MVFR/IFR thru the forecast period. LLWS will develop on Saturday as southerly winds strengthen along and ahead of this system.
Surface winds will remain from the S/SE around 10 kts tonight...and will then strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with some higher gusts on Saturday as winds shift to the SW in the afternoon behind the cold front.
MARINE
Small craft advisory level gusts will continue into this evening before decreasing overnight. Winds will pick up again this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday when a fresh set of sca's will be likely needed.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023
UPDATE
Issued at 944 EST Fri Dec 8 2023
Low pressure continues to develop over SW Ontario late this evening...with a stationary front connecting this low to a weaker area of low pressure developing over the Southern Plains.
Low clouds are beginning to increase across our CWA as deep low level moisture surges northward into the Western Great Lakes well in advance of this system. Low clouds will continue to increase overnight as rain showers gradually develop from SW to NE across our CWA during the early morning hours of Saturday. Relatively mild conditions will persist overnight low temps only fall into the upper 30s across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the low to mid 40s across Northern Lower Michigan.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/
Cloudy and Mild with Rain Arriving Late...
High Impact Weather...None is expected.
Primary Forecast Concerns...Timing of the Rain.
991 mb low pressure over northern Minnesota will track northeast into Canada tonight while 1001 mb currently across Oklahoma approaches from the southwest while deepening. Lift/deep moisture associated with the southern system arrives late tonight. This should spread rain into southwest zones after midnight on into much of the remainder of northern lower by early Saturday.
Southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph tonight should hold temperatures from falling off too much. Lows only expected to range from the upper 30s to mid 40s which in combination with dewpoints of well above freezing to melt down much of the remaining snow on the ground where there still is some.
SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Increasing lake effect/enhanced snow showers late this weekend/early next week with a return of colder temperatures.
Pattern Forecast: At the start of the period Saturday morning, longwave troughing centered across the nation's midsection...
sandwiched between ridging over both coasts. Embedded shortwave expected to be over MN with attendant low pressure centered over southeast WI. This system will continue to trek north through Saturday, becoming situated near James Bay by Saturday evening. Much cooler air to follow this system for the second half of the weekend into the start of next week.
Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain Saturday. Cooler Saturday night onward with some snow possible across parts of northern MI.
Low pressure passes by to our west Saturday morning continuing to drive rain chances from north to south across northern MI. Latest trends have the bulk of notable precip exiting the forecast area by 18-20z. Morning probabilistic guidance still hinting at highest chances of 0.25" QPF (50-75%) west of I-75. 25-35% chance across that same area of 0.50" Lower probs for those some thresholds elsewhere.
Cooler air begins to arrive Saturday afternoon and evening, reinforced by a secondary cold front Saturday night. Lingering synoptic support combined with an increasingly favorable over-water thermal gradient will likely prove to be enough to activate lake processes. Additional scattered/rain snow showers Saturday evening turn to primarily snow overnight with low probabilities over some minor accumulation across the higher terrain.
Snow chances perhaps briefly enhanced early Sunday morning before activity transitions to primarily pure lake effect as lingering synoptic supports departs...potentially continuing to some extent into Monday. Latest day 3-4 probs for 2"+ of snow still pretty low at this juncture (25-35% chance)...largely focused across the typical snow belts of northwest lower. As the prior forecaster mentioned, low probs Sunday night/early Monday for some freezing drizzle to mix in as well given cloud tops struggling to reach -10 C.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.
Shortwave ridging crosses the western Great Lakes Monday night. A northern stream wave punches toward the northern Lakes by late Monday night - Tuesday before some signals that longwave ridging at least briefly returns toward the end of the forecast period.
Overall, not a lot in the way of potential high impact weather through the long term, but certainly some nuisance precip chances remain. Low pressure passing to our north late Monday night - Tuesday is expected to send a cold front across the region through that time frame, perhaps providing enough support to kick off some snow showers -- especially for the northern half of the forecast area. Latest ensemble trends favor another period with above to well- above normal temperatures arriving by Thursday into Friday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Complex area of low pressure will move thru the Western Great Lakes region over the next 24 hours...producing widespread rain showers across Eastern Upper and Northern Lower Michigan starting overnight and continuing into Saturday morning. Rain showers will diminish Saturday afternoon behind the associated cold front...but will increase again Saturday night as rain becomes mixed with and/or changes to snow with the arrival of colder air behind the cold front. Prevailing conditions will be MVFR/IFR thru the forecast period. LLWS will develop on Saturday as southerly winds strengthen along and ahead of this system.
Surface winds will remain from the S/SE around 10 kts tonight...and will then strengthen to 15 to 25 kts with some higher gusts on Saturday as winds shift to the SW in the afternoon behind the cold front.
MARINE
Small craft advisory level gusts will continue into this evening before decreasing overnight. Winds will pick up again this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday when a fresh set of sca's will be likely needed.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 11 PM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI | 4 mi | 67 min | SSW 6G | 42°F | 29.80 | |||
| GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI | 17 mi | 67 min | ESE 4.1G | 43°F | 29.79 | |||
| SPTM4 - Sturgeon Point Light, MI | 33 mi | 117 min | SSW 1G | |||||
| SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI | 34 mi | 47 min | S 12G | 46°F | 29.77 | |||
| KP58 | 42 mi | 52 min | SSW 4.1 | 51°F | 29.79 | 40°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KOSC OSCODAWURTSMITH,MI | 14 sm | 11 min | S 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 46°F | 41°F | 81% | 29.76 |
Wind History from OSC
(wind in knots)
Gaylord, MI,
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