Friday, October30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tawas City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:08AMSunset 6:30PM Friday October 30, 2020 11:36 PM EDT (03:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:24PMMoonset 5:57AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ349 Sturgeon Pt To Alabaster Mi- 1011 Pm Edt Fri Oct 30 2020
.gale watch in effect from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night...
Overnight..Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Saturday night..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Rain showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Sunday..West wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Rain showers and snow showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ349 Expires:202010311015;;097084 FZUS53 KAPX 310211 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1011 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ349-311015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tawas City, MI
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location: 44.27, -83.52     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 310256 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1056 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1000 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Evening composite analysis reveals lower amplitude short-wave ridging upstream through the midwest building eastward into the western Great Lakes. Surface high pressure spans the state this evening, centered over southern Lower Michigan. Large expanse of lower cloud cover remains across most of northern Lower Michigan and down into southern Lower Michigan at this hour, but finally showing signs of eroding around the edges as warmer air is beginning to edge in from the west.

Rest of tonight, upper level short-wave ridge builds over the western Great Lakes while surface high pressure advances on into the eastern lakes/New England region turning low level flow into the south. With increasing warm advection, I remain confident that the pesky lower cloud cover will continue to erode away across Lower Michigan over the next several hours. That said, I am a little concerned that we may see some N-S oriented lake clouds redevelop over Lake Michigan later tonight into Saturday morning and push up into parts of central and eastern Upper Michigan. Recent CAM guidance also suggest some light lake induced precip possibilities up that way. Will see, but I have put some small precip chances up there to cover the possibility.

NEAR TERM. (Through Saturday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

. Mostly Calm Before the Storm .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal. Southerly winds becoming gusty Saturday

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Surface high pressure was centered over Wisconsin this afternoon. Lake effect clouds continue to impact most of the forecast area, with spotty lake effect rain/snow showers in favored northwest and north-northwest flow areas. The lake impacts will diminish this evening as the high builds in and wind regime trends light/variable.

The surface high and driving upper level ridge will quickly slide east of the area on Saturday as a vigorous clipper system approaches the area. The main impacts of the system will be seen in the next couple forecast periods, but we can still expect the development of gusty southerly winds on Saturday and increasing cloud cover.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

. Snow and Blowing Snow Sunday .

High impact weather: Blowing and drifting snow possibly leading to hazardous travel Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pinning down the details of Sunday's snow/blowing snow.

A strong cold front will move through the region early Sunday. Rain showers out ahead of this front are expected to change over to snow by daybreak across western zones and by mid-morning farther east as colder air streams in behind the front. West northwest lake enhanced snow is then expected through the day Sunday. Winds look to gust to between 35 and 45 mph (likely even to 50 mph along the Lake Michigan shoreline) which will likely lead to blowing and drifting snow and potentially hazardous travel. Actual snow amounts may not be overly impressive on the order of 2 to 4 inches in lake effect areas and an inch or less elsewhere (though it might be hard to measure exactly how much falls due to the gusty winds) but none the less this could still greatly lower visibility at times. Definitely something to monitor and keep in mind when planning travel for the second half of the weekend. Activity should quickly diminish in the evening with increasing ridging at the surface and aloft and associated much drier air moving in. The airmass is then expected to modify into Monday. Temperatures will be a little unorthodox with nearly steady readings in the 40s through about midnight Saturday then steady or slowly falling through the 30s during the day Sunday. Lows Sunday night mainly in the 20s with highs Monday in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

. Warming Trend .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Rising heights early in the period will be followed by nearly zonal flow aloft through the remainder of the week. This is expected to lead to warming temperatures and little to no precipitation through the period. Expect readings of well above normal, especially from mid to late week when highs will likely push well into the 50s with a few spots possibly even touching the 60 degree mark. Enjoy the warmer temperatures while you can because it almost surely won't last too much after that.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 1056 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Low level winds turning into the south and warmer air beginning to edge into the region is steadily eroding the VFR stratocu cloud cover across northern Lower Michigan. Now SKC at APN and PLN/TVC should scatter out in the next few hours. VFR weather will prevail overnight and through the day Saturday.

Deep area of low pressure will advance across Ontario and into the western Great Lakes on Saturday. Southerly winds increase starting late overnight in response and become gusty during the day Saturday into Saturday, along with LLWS become increasing likely Saturday night. System will eventually push rainfall and lowering cloud cover back into northern Lower Michigan Saturday night with conditions trending MVFR . and eventually toward IFR late Saturday night.

MARINE. Issued at 350 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Relatively light winds/waves expected tonight into early Saturday as high pressure builds across the area. However, a strong clipper system will approach on Saturday, and clear the area later Saturday night early Sunday. Southerly gales will develop from west to east across the area later Saturday into Saturday night, with northwest gales in the wake of the system late Saturday night into Sunday. These winds will also result in significant waves building.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING from noon EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday for MIZ095-098. LH . GALE WATCH from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WARNING from 11 AM EDT Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . GALE WATCH from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night for LSZ322. GALE WARNING from 11 AM EDT Saturday to 4 AM EST Monday for LSZ321.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . PB SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . BA MARINE . PB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TAWM4 - Tawas City, MI 4 mi56 min NNW 2.9 G 8 31°F 1028.1 hPa
GSLM4 - Gravelly Shoals Light MI 17 mi56 min NW 11 G 12 34°F
SBLM4 - Saginaw Bay Light #1, MI 34 mi96 min NNW 8.9 G 11 36°F 1026.8 hPa (+1.7)
KP58 42 mi45 min SW 5.1 31°F 1028.4 hPa20°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI15 mi41 minN 010.00 miFair22°F18°F83%1028.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9NW4N7N11N13N9N8N9N10N7NW8N8
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1 day agoSW3W4CalmCalmN5N5N6N9N8N9N11N8N9NE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.