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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 933 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Overnight..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 20 knots. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 030345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 951 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Large area of strong persistent high pressure remains centered across the eastern half of the US late this evening...resulting in clear skies across this entire region. Stationary/warm front is holding across Central Ontario and Central Quebec...generating a small area of convection along the northern shore of Lake Superior and a larger area of convection near the southern tip of James Bay
Closer to home
only a few thin cirrus is drifting overhead...as temps fall thru the 60s after record-breaking warmth during today. Not much will change overnight under the full influence of strong subsidence and dry air thru the column. Clear skies and light/calm winds will allow for some patchy fog development again late tonight into early Tuesday morning.
Overnight lows will cool into the 50s.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Impressive amplified mid-upper level ridging remains in place across the nation's midsection this afternoon through tonight as deep troughing pivots over the Intermountain West. Expansive area of surface high pressure encompasses much of the eastern half of the CONUS, including the Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Temperature trends.

Early morning convection across the eastern U.P. has long since dissipated with mostly sunny skies prevailing area wide early this afternoon. Mid summer-like temperatures prevailing with highs continuing to climb through the mid/upper 70s through mid-80s. Still remains a possibility that a couple of daily high temperature records are tied or broken, with even better chances for that on Tuesday.

Mainly clear skies with light/calm winds will likely result in some patchy fog once again. Low temperatures not falling too incredibly far...ranging from the mid-50s to low 60s area-wide.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now... well above normal to record warmth continues; cold front ushers autumn back into the picture by Thursday.

Pattern Synopsis: Dominant ridge axis remains overhead Tuesday, with associated surface high loitering in the vicinity of Lake Erie.
Persistent southerly flow will continue to draw anomalous warmth into the Great Lakes region as 850mb temps hold into the mid-upper teens (Celsius), resulting in efficient mixing and very warm conditions at the surface. Meanwhile, longwave troughing will intrude into the Plains with time, initially sending a shortwave vort max into the South Dakota vicinity. Favorable jet dynamics will lead to cyclogenesis as the system surges northeast along the periphery of the ridge into Minnesota. Associated surface cold frontal boundary will intrude into the western Great Lakes by Wednesday night, and cyclonic flow will draw in deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This will set the stage for atmospheric saturation Wednesday night into Thursday as a colder airmass is ushered into northern Michigan in the wake of the cyclone and associated cold frontal boundary passage, which will suppress the ridge / surface high pressure south and east of the Great Lakes.

Primary Forecast Concerns: How warm Tuesday? When does precipitation begin Wednesday, and how long does it carry into Thursday?

The heat lingers for Tuesday and Wednesday, as we basically hit the repeat button from today. Warm southerly flow will continue to draw in potentially record breaking heat to the region Tuesday, with another warm day expected on Wednesday as well. MaxTs on Tuesday will likely be the warmest out of any day during this stretch of early October heat, with highs in the 80s across northern lower (likely upper 80s in downsloping locales). Overnight lows will be mild, largely in the 60s across the board (perhaps closer to 70 near GT Bay).

Cloud cover will be on the increase on Wednesday (signaling the impending departure of the anomalous warmth) as the aforementioned cold front moves closer and cyclonic flow draws deeper moisture into the region, but the overall influence of the surface high pressure will remain strong enough to hinder any precipitation onset until late in the day. Highs will still be well above normal, largely holding in the upper 70s and lower 80s (coolest in the eastern Yoop).

Initial chances for rain will intrude into the region from the west closer to sundown Wednesday, spreading east through the overnight hours as the cold front makes its way through northern lower and eastern upper Michigan. Enough instability may be present to generate a few rumbles of thunder at times Wednesday night into Thursday. Overall rainfall amounts do not look overly menacing at this time given the largely transient nature of any embedded downpours, but some localized rainfalls of 1.00"+ will certainly be possible as PWATS swell as high as 1.50. The bigger story will be the blustery conditions and cooler temperatures that may send a shock to your system, as blustery northwest winds and highs largely in the mid-to-upper 60s accompany showers that largely decrease in coverage later in the day Thursday.

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Low. Cold air continues to spill in for the weekend, bringing continued unsettled weather.

Longwave troughing will eventually move into the Great Lakes region, and given ample synoptic moisture and colder air aloft, unsettled weather looks to carry into the weekend. High temperatures will be in the 50s on Friday before falling even more into the weekend... it is possible that several places fail to even exceed 50 degrees both Saturday and Sunday as the cold airmass moves essentially overhead.
In addition to the colder weather, the added element of lake effect rain potential must begin to be monitored as guidance is keying in on 850mb temps around or just below zero celsius, which, with the lakes generally around 15-18 Celsius, will be plenty sufficient for delta-Ts to activate lake effect instability amid a persistent backside cyclonic flow regime. As of now, this airmass looks to be too mild for the dreaded "s-word" (that's "snow") to come into the conversation, but this will certainly serve as a reminder that the cold season is slowly moving toward asserting its dominance over the overall weather pattern in the upper Great Lakes.

Normal highs: 58-65 Normal lows: 37-45

AVIATION
(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Large area of strong high pressure currently centered over the Eastern half of the US will begin to slowly shift east toward the Atlantic Coast over the next 24 hours. Strong subsidence and dry air thru the column will maintain dry wx and mostly VFR conditions thru Tuesday night. Patchy fog will again develop overnight into early Tuesday morning...dropping vsbys to MVFR/IFR at times.
Surface winds will remain from the S/SW under 10 kts.

MARINE
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

A few south-southwesterly gusts may flirt with small craft advisory criteria this afternoon and early evening, mainly across both far northern Lake Michgian and Lake Huron. Similar conditions are expected across the area on Tuesday. Better chances for advisory criteria and precipitation chances arrive towards the Wednesday - Thursday time frame.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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