Marshfield, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marshfield, VT


December 7, 2023 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC)
Sunrise 7:13AM   Sunset 4:14PM   Moonrise  2:20AM   Moonset 2:16PM 

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marshfield, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 072345 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 645 PM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

SYNOPSIS
After another cold night tonight, a warming trend begins Friday and continues through the weekend with temperatures climbing well above normal, especially on Sunday. A strong storm system will move into the region Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing rain and gusty winds before ending as snow Sunday night into Monday. While some area rivers could approach or exceed bankfull Sunday night into Monday, significant flooding is not expected.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 635 PM EST Thursday...As noted by the previous forecaster, the cloud cover is tricky with low clouds struggling to overcome the mountain ranges under blocked flow. Overall, the tweaks were minor, but cloud cover has expanded east a bit faster. For now I've not touched min Ts, but if cloud cover continues to overcome the Greens, then some tweaks may be necessary. The rest is in good shape, with PoPs taken out a bit faster with reflectivity starting to slide south of our area. Have a great night!

Excerpt from previous discussion...
Cloud cover will be tricky overnight as 1000-850mb moisture increases from west to east, and this is easily seen on afternoon GOES-R satellite imagery. To the east though, moisture is thinning east of the Greens so a period of clearing skies is expected which will help to produce colder min temps tonight.
Basically looking at lows in the teens to low 20s from the Champlain Valley westward as well as southern Vermont, with central/northeast Vermont ranging from 5 below to 10 above.

As the aforementioned upper level ridge slowly edges eastward over the Great Lakes on Friday, and the Northeast Friday night, dry conditions continue along with a notable warming trend. Temps during the day will warm back to normal values for early December to slightly above normal with highs around freezing along the international border to upper 30s and around 40 south. Temps cool a bit overnight, but with increasing SSW flow they'll hold in the 20s east to low 30s west.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...A relatively quiet period of wx anticipated as 925mb to 500mb southwest flow develops with moderate waa. Weak embedded s/w energy in the flow aloft, combined with some modest 925mb to 850mb lift may produce spotty light precip on Sat aftn into Sat night. Depending upon near sfc temps, pockets of freezing drizzle could be possible acrs northern NY Sat night. Attm confidence of precip and bl temps is marginal so have not included in the fcst. Progged 925mb temps btwn 6-8C support highs near 40F NEK to near 50F southern SLV, with a wide range in lows on Sat night, as deeper valleys east of the Greens decouple. Expecting lows mid 20s NEK/eastern VT to l/m 40s SLV/CPV.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 PM EST Thursday...An active period of wx still is anticipated on Sunday into Monday with several potential hazards.
System continues to evolve with several changes/trends noted in the 12z guidance as energy/trof of interest is entering the Pacific NW attm. Water vapor shows a rather complex trof with numerous embedded s/w, along with abundant deep layer moisture advection. This system wl travel acrs the inter- mountain west thru Friday, before multiple pieces of s/w energy eject into the central/high Plains. Initial s/w energy wl help develop weak low pres over the western Great Lakes with cold frnt extending into the MS River Valley. Meanwhile, additional s/w energy crntly over the PAC NW wl dig on backside, helping enhance a deep full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the MS Valley/central Appalachian Mtns by Sunday. Several waves of sfc low pres develop along the cold frnt, as its progresses eastward into the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS on Sunday night into Monday. Deep southerly flow associated with full latitude trof ahead of sfc boundary/low pres wl advect pw values over 1.0" into our cwa, which is 3 to 5 STD above normal for early/mid Dec. This moisture, combined with developing dual 25h jet structure, a slight negative tilt to the trof axis and enhanced ribbon of 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, supports a 6 to 12 hour window of moderate to heavy rainfall late Sunday into Monday from west to east acrs our cwa.
Based on above ingredients, thinking qpf ranges from 1 to 2 inches with localized amounts up to 3 inches possible, especially parts of the central/southern Greens. Thinking about 2 inches is likely here in the CPV, especially given the deep southerly flow paralleling the boundary, with deep moisture advection. Instability is minimal, so hrly rainfall rates should minimize potential for flash flooding, but potential needs to be watched closely, especially when combined with snowmelt. These anticipated qpf amounts and snowmelt wl cause sharp rises on many streams and rivers, with several rivers having the potential to reach minor flood, including the Otter Creek, Ausable, Mad, and Missisquoi. If crnt trends continue a flood watch maybe needed for portions of the region in later fcsts.

Next question is how quickly cold air develops on backside and rain changes to snow from west to east acrs our cwa. The latest experimental Winter Storm Outlook product from WPC has dropped the northern Dacks into the 30 to 50% range of exceeding warning criteria, along with parts of the northern Greens. Its always extremely challenging to capture the exact thermal profiles, given a sharpening thermal gradient and timing of rain changing to snow in these scenarios. In addition, how much moisture lingering behind the boundary wl play an important role in the amount of accumulating snowfall on backside. If system stays positively tilted and more progressive as supported by some guidance, snowfall wl be limited, but if trof becomes negatively tilted and slower, heavier snowfall for the mtns is possible. Our crnt thoughts suggest the best potential for accumulating snowfall of at least 3 inches or more would be acrs the northern Dacks into portions of the central/northern Greens above 1000 feet. Depending upon the timing of rain changing to snow, a slippery Monday morning commute is possible acrs portions of our cwa. For now we have the general idea of rain changing to snow acrs the dacks, followed by northern/central Greens and eventually into the CPV by Monday morning. Thermal profiles support highs mid 40s to l/m 50s Sunday, with values holding steady overnight until falling sharply as the boundary crosses our region toward Monday morning. Highs Monday range from the mid 20s dacks to mid 40s lower CT River Valley.

Another trend is for less wind given weaker area of low pres, very stable low levels associated with precip, and strongest 925mb to 850mb wind fields displaced slightly to our south and east.
Strongest 850mb winds of 45 to 50 knots occur on Sunday morning acrs the dacks, where summit gusts up to 50 mph are possible, but much weaker in deeper valleys, with gusts ranging in the 20 to 30 mph range.

For midweek, much quieter wx anticipated with temps returning to near normal and chances of mostly mtn snow showers. GFS is advertising a cold frnt on Weds with some slightly better moisture/forcing which could produce a period of light accumulating snowfall. Did lower highs a bit for midweek, especially associated with 850mb temps near -15C and 925mb values ranging btwn -8 and - 12C, supporting mostly 20s to lower 30s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 00Z Saturday...MVFR at KRUT/KSLK/KMSS at the moment as cloud layer around 1500-2500 ft agl is shifting east. This should continue to expand eastward, with ceilings falling a bit lower, resulting in localized IFR potential, with the greatest chances at KSLK and KRUT. Additionally, KSLK may observe some reduced visibility around 06-13z, perhaps from light snow, but seeming unlikely, left a prevailing group for 4SM. After 12z, only slow improvement is expected, but by 16z-18z, ceilings should trend VFR. Winds light and variable tonight, become southeast to easterly by 16z-18z at 5 knots or less.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN, Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 18 sm29 mincalm10 smOvercast16°F10°F79%29.97
KCDA CALEDONIA COUNTY,VT 20 sm25 mincalm10 smOvercast14°F10°F85%29.95
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 21 sm26 mincalm10 smOvercast18°F12°F79%29.97

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Burlington, VT,



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