Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Alexandria Bay, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Center of surface low pressure will remain nearly stationary just west of Lake Ontario through early evening. Spokes of energy will continue to rotate around this feature, supporting waves of mainly light rain across the region. Remains on the cool side this afternoon with highs low to mid 50s, mid to upper 40s interior North Country.

This low will gradually weaken while slowly shifting east across western NY tonight, while a strengthening coastal low moves northeast to just off the New England coast by Friday morning.
Sensible weather remains about the same with periodic bouts of mainly light rain continuing to rotate about the center of the low within a cold cyclonic flow aloft. Another seasonably chilly and damp night on tap with lows slipping back into the low to mid 40s, with some upper 30s east of Lake Ontario.

Surface low over our area will ultimately be absorbed by the larger coastal low by later Friday while it churns toward the Bay of Fundy by the tail end of the day. This will set up an even chillier west to northwest flow across the region. Wrap around moisture within a cold, moist cyclonic flow will keep the precip falling on western and north-central NY. Expect more in the way of a continued light rain northeast of the low track from the Finger Lakes to North Country, while precipitation across western NY becomes more showery in nature through the day, with frequent showers and a chilly westerly breeze on the back side of the low. This will be the coldest day of the period with many locations not getting out of the 40s, with some very low 50s possible for select spots. This is some 20+ degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The vertically stacked low pressure causing the wet weather of late will track to northern New England by Friday evening. Behind this system, a weaker dissipating low and shortwave trough will track across the western and north central NY area Friday evening and into the early overnight. This will cause organized showers/steady rain to continue into the evening on Friday, especially from the Genesee Valley eastward. As the stronger portion of the shortwave trough tracks southeast of the area, showers will become less organized through the night.

Showers will linger through the weekend, especially each afternoon as daytime heating increases instability some. A passing shortwave trough for both Saturday and Sunday afternoon will also help increase the potential for showers each day as well.

Showers should scatter out later Sunday evening and overnight with the loss of daytime heating and a ridge starting to build into the region.

Temperatures remain below normal for Saturday and Sunday, with Saturday the cooler of the two days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
High pressure will begin to build into the Great Lakes on Memorial Day Monday, which will be the best day of the holiday weekend with mainly dry weather outside of a spotty afternoon shower inland from the lakes. Temperatures will begin to rebound, with highs back into the 60s to near 70.

The dry weather will not last long, as another mid level closed low will take shape over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes by the middle of next week. Model guidance begins to diverge on the timing of this system, with the slower ECMWF still offering some chance of dry weather Tuesday. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to suggest a likelihood of rain moves back in by Tuesday night or Wednesday as the mid level low makes a close pass over the eastern Great Lakes. The potential for showers will then continue for much of the new week.

Temperatures as of now for the long term look warmer, but still below normal with afternoon values ranging from the low 60s to low 70s. Changes in track and speed of the systems will cause some fluctuations in temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A mix MVFR/IFR conditions will continue across much of the region through the remainder of the day, however North Country lower terrain (KART) still sitting in the low VFR range. Some LIFR across the interior higher terrain of the Southern Tier. Brief periods of VFR will also be possible across other lower terrain sites if low decks scatter in and out from time to time with changing wx conditions. Center of surface low pressure will remain nearly stationary just west of Lake Ontario through the early evening.
Spokes of energy will continue to rotate around this feature, supporting waves of mainly light rain across the region.

Degraded flight conditions will continue tonight into Thursday as the surface low ever so slowly edges east across western NY overnight before becoming absorbed by a strengthening coastal low that will be located just east of New England by Friday morning.
This will also allow periodic rounds of light rain to continue through the TAF period. If anything, flight conditions will likely worsen overnight with more in the way of lower terrain IFR and higher terrain LIFR, with little, if any improvement to flight conditions expected through Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday.. MVFR to IFR with showers.

Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of a few showers.

MARINE
A nearly stationary surface low spinning just west of Lake Ontario through early evening will slowly shift east and weaken as it crosses western NY tonight before ultimately becoming absorbed by a strengthening coastal low riding up the Atlantic coast tonight and Friday. This will promote fresh to moderate westerlies across Lake Erie tonight through Friday evening supporting a period of Small Craft Advisories on the eastern shores.

Elevated persistent westerlies will linger through the holiday weekend bringing choppy conditions at times, however winds and waves are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through Monday.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT Friday night for LEZ040-041.