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FXUS61 KBTV 280825 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 325 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Scattered to numerous snow showers and increasingly gusty winds are expected across the forecast area today and especially this afternoon as a weak cold front swings through the region. Quieter conditions follow for the remainder of the work week with the exception of the St. Lawrence Valley where periods of lake effect snow are likely through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...While heavy lake effect snow remains the story southwest of the forecast area downwind of the eastern Great Lakes, isolated to scattered snow showers are in the cards for the North Country and Vermont today as an upper trough and weak cold front swing through the region. Steepening low-level lapse rates combined with weak elevated instability should produce briefly moderate to isolated heavy snow showers as the base of the trough moves through during the afternoon, and with wind gusts increasing to 20-30 mph it will feel a little bit squally at times. Fortunately, pre and post frontal passage surface temps won't really change much, and while road temps will warm above freezing during the day, they won't sharply fall behind the front enough to cause any widespread issues. Overall, lower elevation snow accumulations will mainly be a dusting to an inch, with a few inches possible across the higher peaks. Highs today will be chilly in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Snow showers will rapidly dissipate this evening as drier air works into the region, but winds will remain gusty through a good portion of the night. Modest cold air advection from the northwest combined with increasing breaks in cloud cover will support widespread lows in the teens to locally lower 20s in the vicinity of Lake Champlain.
Quiet weather generally follows on Wednesday for the majority of the region, but lake effect snow showers downwind of Lake Ontario are progged to shift northwestward from the Tug Hill into southern portions of the St. Lawrence Valley through the day. This band doesn't look to be nearly as intense as what's currently occurring, but a dusting to 3" is certainly possible. Highs Wednesday will be similar to today in the mid 20s to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...A strong trough near James Bay, coupled with strong ridging in the subtropics means there will be fast flow aloft. An upper shortwave will progress through the region Wednesday night, but without much deep moisture, it will likely only produce very light activity. However, once it slides east, a lake effect snow band will develop overnight across St. Lawrence County. It will probably not be too long lasting, as profiles begin to veer with height and daytime heating warms conditions such that lake induced instability diminishes. Warm advection in southerly flow will help us thaw a bit, with temperatures running in the mid 30s to lower 40s, which is fairly close to present seasonal norms.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 325 AM EST Tuesday...As noted before, flow is fast, and it will get faster on Friday. 850hPa winds are likely to increase towards 50 to 60 knots. Winds will be strong at summit level, but a fairly strong inversion around 2000 ft agl should prevent much in the way of mixing winds to the surface. The fast flow will eject a shortwave out of the Mississippi River Valley Thursday night into Friday, and stretch it apart while it lifts into New England alongside an elongated front coming in from the northwest. The front weakens heading into Vermont, mainly with the shortwave from the Mississippi likely producing most of the precipitation later Friday into Friday night. Thickness values seem low enough for snow, but it will be on the warm side of freezing. Unlike the prior system, this one won't be so vigorous. But light to moderate snow with some rain mixed in appears likely as the shortwave races by. Without much cold air behind this system, we will generally see weather conditions around seasonal norms, which for early December is mid to upper 30s in the day and teens to mid 20s at night.

Saturday appears mainly dry with ridging setting up. Thereafter, the synoptic wave pattern will trend wavy, which means the scope of predictability will be lower. A longwave trough will set up across the central US. There's a smaller trough out ahead of it, and there's disagreement on how entangled it becomes with the developing longwave trough. If you're rooting for a dry weekend, the more entangled solutions would yield a dry Sunday, followed by a double dose of precip next Monday and Tuesday. A less entangled solution would bring precipitation in depending on where the lead troughs track, and then depending on its track, how warm we get. The farther south, the more likely we would be to observe mainly snow in the vein of the EPS forecasts with a 40-50% chance of at least 3 inches of snow, but if it's farther north, then we will be dealing with transitioning precipitation types like the GEFS/GEPS indicating something like 20-40% chances of just 1 inch of snow depending on location. Again, the synoptic pattern forecast is not one that usually yields high predictability, but there should be some event with more widespread precipitation out there early next week.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will largely prevail through the period with occasional reductions in ceilings and visibility to mainly MVFR in scattered snow showers. Timing of these showers will be very difficult to forecast, likely affecting a terminal in short bursts of 20-30 minutes, so only VCSH mentioned explicitly in the TAFs. Otherwise, winds will generally be WNW through the period, sustained at 5-10kts with gusts upwards of 20kts developing later this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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