Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shelburne, VT

KEY MESSAGES
As of 151 AM EST Thursday...

1. Snow showers to taper off this morning with drier weather expected through the end of the week

2. A clipper will bring snow showers back to the region late Friday into Saturday

3. Modest warming trend expected next week with periods of rain and/or snow possible

DISCUSSION
As of 151 AM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Decent low level convergence has allowed for snow showers to linger across Vermont and northern New York this morning.
Froude numbers remain show strongly blocked flow which has helped maintain snow showers across the Champlain Valley overnight. High-res models show flow gradually becoming unblocked through the early morning hours which will coincide with decreasing moisture within the snow growth zone. The combination of these two features will lead to an abrupt end to the snow showers by mid to late morning. In the meantime, it's not out of the question that some locations could see another 0.5 to 1 inch of snowfall but most places will likely only see a dusting. As these snow showers taper off, winds will become increasingly gusty through the morning hours with gusts between 20 to 25 mph likely across much of the region. These winds will diminish tonight with dry weather expected to continue through the daylight hours on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A weakening upper level low and associated surface reflection (in this case a clipper) will move across southern Quebec and fizzle out north of the International Border. This will help drive some snow showers, which will be primarily focused across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains. Model sounding show rather lackluster lift given the lack of convergence and frontogenesis as the feature falls apart north of the border and will rely on orographic forcing to help squeeze out what little moisture will be available. That being said, it seems like a fair chance that many locations will at least see some light snow but any noticeable accumulations are likely mainly above 1000-1500 ft. These showers are expected to taper off through the day on Saturday with high pressure expected overhead on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The upper level pattern will begin to flatten out as we blocking over the North Atlantic breaks down with more zonal flow vs meridional flow expected. However, before this happens, one last shortwave trough on the western periphery of the upper level trough is expected to bring a round of snow showers to the region late Sunday into Monday. It doesn't look like anything too crazy, with early estimates of 1-3 inches across the North Country. Thereafter, we will finally see the upper level ridge across the central US spread eastward which will allow us to advect in some above normal temperatures to the region. It looks like we will finally see a period of above freezing temperatures during the afternoon hours each day with highs in the mid 30s to possibly mid 40s in some valley locations. A complex frontal system is expected to arrive midweek and has the potential to bring rain, freezing rain, and snow to the region. There are a lot of discrepancies amongst deterministic and ensembles models at this point given complicated thermal profiles but it will be something worth monitoring as we head into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Snow showers continue to bring reduced visibilities and ceilings to many terminals this morning. A band of heavier snow has brought IFR conditions to KMPV, KRUT, and KSLK with these IFR conditions likely to continue until 9-10Z as snow will quickly move out of the area during the pre-dawn hours. Ceilings, for the most part, remain in the MVFR range with ceilings hovering between 1500 and 2500 ft. We should see gradual improvements to ceilings throughout the day starting at 12Z but some sites may stick with a 2500-2800 deck for much of the forecast period. It still looks like we will have a period of gusty winds later this morning into this afternoon but it'll have to wait until the snow moves out of the area.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible.
Slight chance SN.

CLIMATE
As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...
In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is this Saturday, February 14th. If that forecast holds, that would be 22 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015.

EQUIPMENT
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.