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Marine Weather and Tides Belfast, ME Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:00AM

Sunset 7:13PM

Wednesday April 8, 2020 10:52 AM EDT (14:52 UTC)

Moonrise 8:05PM

Moonset 6:42AM

Illumination 100%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belfast, ME

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Area Discussion for - Gray/Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 081053 AAA AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 653 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the region on Wednesday before the weather turns significantly more active on Thursday as low pressure develops over the Gulf of Maine with rain and mountain snow expected. High pressure returns on Friday into Saturday with temperatures a bit below normal for this time of year.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Update . Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

Previous discussion . The warm front never quite made it into the forecast area . with convection remaining well to our S. Some WAA over the top of it however has brought a few very light showers to parts of Srn NH this early morning. These will move SE thru the remainder of the morning . leaving us with a dry and seasonable day. The proverbial calm before the storm.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. ***SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY***

Rapid cyclogensis is forecast to take place over New England . as a jet streak in excess of 150 knots moves off the Mid Atlantic coast. The left exit region will reside overhead and within the diffluent region of the upper trof. Lift will be maximized . with mid level low centers quickly consolidating in the vicinity of the Wrn ME coastline.

This set up is primed for heavy precip over the local forecast area. It will move quickly into the area over the first part of Thu . as more of a WAA forced band. This will transition to a deformation band of precip as mid level lows become stacked by late afternoon. Beneath the heaviest precip evaporational and melt cooling will help to drive surface temps down towards freezing. There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to just how close to the coast that process will occur . depending on track of the low. Given the rates of precip this makes the forecast a tough call . because even an hour or two of near freezing temps could be several inches of snow. Forecast models do show 925 and 950 mb temps falling back towards 0C over a large chunk of Wrn ME. This suggests that much of that area could see some snowfall. The best combination of forcing . temps . and QPF will be over the Wrn ME mtns and foothills . possibly even spilling into parts of Kennebec County. Guidance is showing an excellent signal for banded precip on the NW side of the developing low. Significant snowfall is possible in the mtns . and 6 inches or more thru the foothills. Another complicating factor will be late season injection of higher theta-e air . and dry slot racing Nwd. This will be a system will plenty of convection . and that includes most of the local area whether it is snowing or not. Convectively enhanced snowfall rates add additional uncertainty to snowfall forecast.

I have decided to expand the watch into Nrn Coos County at this time . as enough snowfall occurs at valley location to justify a 50 percent risk of 6 inches or more.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Overview: Rain and snow showers linger and gusty northwest winds develop on Friday as low pressure moves off to the northeast. Northwest flow dominates over the first half of the weekend and high pressure briefly nudges into the region on Sunday. The beginning of next week currently looks wet and unsettled as a large low pressure system develops over the Midwest and slowly moves northeast.

Impacts: Winds gusting to 30-40 mph Friday afternoon in parts of central and southern NH.

Forecast Details: Light rain or snow showers continue on Friday as a low pressure system quickly moves away to the northeast. Northwest winds will pick up as the morning progresses, and that direction is ideal for downsloping which could enhance the winds. Have gusts to 30-40 mph for much of east central and southern NH Friday afternoon and evening and it is possible that gusts above 40 mph will occur. A wind advisory may be needed for those areas, but will let that decision be made by future shifts. The northwest winds continue through Saturday but should be weaker and much less gusty; Saturday otherwise looks dry though clouds will linger most of the day. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s.

High pressure nudges into New England early Saturday night and warm southerly flow begins to develop over our region. Sunday looks dry for our region at the moment with warmer temperatures than previous days, but developing low pressure over the Midwest looks to bring another round of precipitation to our region for the early part of next week. This system will slowly move north through the rest of the long term period with secondary lows developing and move northeast toward New England simultaneously. The global deterministic models are not in great agreement, but the general consensus amongst their latest runs is for rain on Monday that begins to diminish on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Short Term . Small area of IFR CIGs has developed on the Midcoast is weak onshore flow N of the warm front. This will dissipate this morning with VFR conditions expected into Thu. Strong coastal storm will develop quickly Thu . with heavy precip . LLWS . and widespread IFR conditions. Precip will move in from the SW first half of Thu and quickly overspread to the NE. Best chance for some SN will be HIE and AUG with several hours of LIFR possible. LLWS will be most likely near the coast in the afternoon just ahead of the low center. Conditions will be slow to improve Thu night.

Long Term . Gusty northwest winds and lingering rain/snow showers on Friday. Winds remain out of the northwest on Saturday but will be weaker and less gusty. VFR conditions expected Saturday and Sunday with a return to MVFR/IFR conditions early next week in rain.

MARINE. Short Term . Quiet over the waters today . but conditions will be deteriorating quickly into Thu. Gale watch remains in effect for rapidly developing coastal storm. At this time gale force wind gusts look fairly likely . but depending on exact low location there is a low chance of some storm force gusts over parts of the waters. This would be most likely N of Port Clyde.

Long Term . Seas will begin to diminish on Friday as the coastal storm pulls away to the northeast though winds will be gusty out of the northwest. A gale watch is up through Friday afternoon and SCA conditions will likely continue through Friday night. Seas pick up again early next week as southerly flow develops over the waters.

HYDROLOGY. A period of heavy rain is likely along the Maine coast Thursday evening . transitioning to snow over the interior. Given snow in the mountains and a mix into the foothills . do not expect significant river flood issues. May have some short-fused issues along the coast especially with water levels rising towards the ~1AM Friday high tide which may prevent efficient surface water drainage along the coast.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. An extended coastal flood advisory is in effect for high tides continuing through early Friday. Astronomical tides are near minor flood levels without wind impacts already . and with surge levels expected to increase ahead of Thursday's storm . minor impacts are likely. There is some potential that the Thursday night high tide could see moderate /warning level/ impacts depending on exact timing/location of storm development and how long winds remain onshore. Forecast surge values remain around 2 ft at maximum . and this lines up well with the current products.

EQUIPMENT. The last GYX upper air observation was March 25 at 12Z. Unfortunately, a disruption in gas supply has temporarily halted observations from GYX. The order has been placed but a date of delivery remains TBD.

The Sugarloaf NWR transmitter remains off the air with an unknown restoration time.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for MEZ023>028. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for MEZ007>009-012>014. NH . Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Friday for NHZ014. Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through Friday afternoon for NHZ001. MARINE . Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday afternoon for ANZ150>154.



SYNOPSIS . Legro/Watson NEAR TERM . Legro SHORT TERM . Legro LONG TERM . Watson AVIATION . Legro/Watson MARINE . Legro/Watson

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
44033 - Buoy F0103 - West Penobscot Bay	25 mi	108 min	NNE 14 G 16	38°F	40°F	1 ft	1000.9 hPa
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME	43 mi	58 min	NE 6 G 8	41°F	40°F		1002.8 hPa

Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME

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N6 G10

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NW16 G24

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S7 G11

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N16 G20

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NW25 G34

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NW3 G7

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SW6 G11

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W3 G6

W13 G18

W6 G12

W10 G16

NW11 G14

NW12 G17

NW10 G13

NW13 G17

NW17 G21

NW13 G16

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Rockland, Knox County Regional Airport, ME	24 mi	56 min	NE 10 G 15	10.00 mi	Fair	43°F	32°F	65%	1002.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRKD

Wind History from RKD (wind in knots)

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S10 G15

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NW11 G24

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W13 G19

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W15 G24

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Tide / Current Tables for Belfast, Penobscot River, Maine

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Tide / Current Tables for Castine, Penobscot Bay, Maine

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gray/Portland, ME (10,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, ME

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