Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nelson, WI
November 10, 2024 5:26 AM CST (11:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:57 AM Sunset 4:45 PM Moonrise 2:15 PM Moonset 12:09 AM |
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Area Discussion for Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 100848 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 248 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and drizzle to end late this morning, clouds persist through the remainder of the day.
- A cold front moves through overnight into early Monday with slightly cooler temperatures expected Monday and Monday night before highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s return through the end of the period.
- Next rain chance arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
An occluded surface low continues to pivot over northwestern Iowa early this morning with drizzle and fog reducing visibilities to 2-4 miles across much of the MPX forecast area. Another round of showers is working its way into south central Minnesota and will continue to become more widespread as the low slides across southeastern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin through the first half of the day. Rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours have only been on the order of a few hundredths, and only a couple more hundredths at best are expected with this morning round of showers. While this will be the last of our rain until mid week, the second half of the day will remain cloudy. Overnight, a cold front will swing through from the Dakotas, with highs Monday expected to be a few degrees cooler than the past couple of days and closer to average for the second full week of November. Skies will gradually clear through the day as a surface high centers itself over northern Minnesota. These clear skies will allow overnight lows will dip well below freezing for the first time in several days for many.
As we head into Tuesday, southerly flow and strong WAA sets up ahead of our next potential weathermaker. Models seem to have finally settled on this system being fairly progressive with a shortwave quickly moving across the Upper Mississippi Valley before strengthening over the Great Lakes. Rain along the cold front dropping down from the parent low up in Canada is expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the best chances for rain across the eastern half of the forecast area. QPF amounts of around a quarter inch are expected with potentially higher amounts in western Wisconsin where better forcing and moisture line up.
The rest of the week looks dry and warmer with highs climbing back into the mid to upper 50s. A run at 60 isn't out of the question along the Buffalo Ridge Thursday and Friday. Our next chance for precip still looks to arrive sometime over the weekend, but there is considerable spread among the EPS and GEFS on when exactly that system would arrive. Something that ensemble members continue to agree on is that there is no cool down to average November temperatures until we get well beyond the end of this forecast period.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
Conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight to LIFR across parts of central and western MN, IFR elsewhere. Periods of light rain or drizzle will continue through Sunday morning.
Conditions will improve late Sunday morning and return to MVFR by afternoon.
KMSP...IFR conditions will continue through the morning, then improvement expected through the afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 15-20G30 kts.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind S 10-15 kts becoming W.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 248 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and drizzle to end late this morning, clouds persist through the remainder of the day.
- A cold front moves through overnight into early Monday with slightly cooler temperatures expected Monday and Monday night before highs in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s return through the end of the period.
- Next rain chance arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 246 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024
An occluded surface low continues to pivot over northwestern Iowa early this morning with drizzle and fog reducing visibilities to 2-4 miles across much of the MPX forecast area. Another round of showers is working its way into south central Minnesota and will continue to become more widespread as the low slides across southeastern Minnesota and into central Wisconsin through the first half of the day. Rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours have only been on the order of a few hundredths, and only a couple more hundredths at best are expected with this morning round of showers. While this will be the last of our rain until mid week, the second half of the day will remain cloudy. Overnight, a cold front will swing through from the Dakotas, with highs Monday expected to be a few degrees cooler than the past couple of days and closer to average for the second full week of November. Skies will gradually clear through the day as a surface high centers itself over northern Minnesota. These clear skies will allow overnight lows will dip well below freezing for the first time in several days for many.
As we head into Tuesday, southerly flow and strong WAA sets up ahead of our next potential weathermaker. Models seem to have finally settled on this system being fairly progressive with a shortwave quickly moving across the Upper Mississippi Valley before strengthening over the Great Lakes. Rain along the cold front dropping down from the parent low up in Canada is expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday with the best chances for rain across the eastern half of the forecast area. QPF amounts of around a quarter inch are expected with potentially higher amounts in western Wisconsin where better forcing and moisture line up.
The rest of the week looks dry and warmer with highs climbing back into the mid to upper 50s. A run at 60 isn't out of the question along the Buffalo Ridge Thursday and Friday. Our next chance for precip still looks to arrive sometime over the weekend, but there is considerable spread among the EPS and GEFS on when exactly that system would arrive. Something that ensemble members continue to agree on is that there is no cool down to average November temperatures until we get well beyond the end of this forecast period.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024
Conditions will continue to deteriorate overnight to LIFR across parts of central and western MN, IFR elsewhere. Periods of light rain or drizzle will continue through Sunday morning.
Conditions will improve late Sunday morning and return to MVFR by afternoon.
KMSP...IFR conditions will continue through the morning, then improvement expected through the afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind N 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 15-20G30 kts.
WED...MVFR/-SHRA likely. Wind S 10-15 kts becoming W.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KRGK
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KRGK
Wind History Graph: RGK
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of Upper Mississippi Valley
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