Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nelson, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Regional radar imagery highlights our thunderstorms from yesterday evening are now a decaying MCS over E WI and W MI this morning. Surface observations reveal temperatures in the 40s and 50s with light and variable winds. This combined with the brief period of clear skies behind the frontal passage has led to the formation of areas of dense fog and low stratus across western Wisconsin and southern Minnesota. The area of dense fog will likely spread east across portions of central and western MN overnight. Fog will be slow to erode this morning, but should improve by lunch. On the other hand, cloud cover will stick around much of the day. Temperatures will likely end up in the 60s with a chance of 70 along I-90. Not bad for mid-April but not exactly a great day to spend outdoors. Precipitation chances will be restricted to the I-90 corridor in MN and along/south of I-94 in W WI. Twin Cities and locations N/W will remain dry. Another shortwave will track northeast from the Plains on Wednesday. This will bring another round of showers across the area. Thunderstorm threat should remain south and east of MN and western WI. Highs top out in the 60s.

As that wave departs, another system developing over the Plains will begin to push east on Thursday. Speaking of Thursday, current guidance supports a rather nice day. Skies should clear out behind Wednesday's system and warm air advection ramps up ahead of the incoming Plains low. The southerly flow should help temperatures warm back into the mid 70s and looks like the nicest day of the forecast period. On Friday, moisture continues to return across the area as the next system moves through. A rather potent cold front is forecast with this system and will likely lead to another round of thunderstorms Friday afternoon.
There is good model consistency with this system. If we take a look at the forecast soundings in the warm sector reveal another impressive early season environment with very steep lapse rates (8.0 to 9.0C/km), moderate instability, and favorable shear profiles. The cold front and it's associated synoptic forcing should be able to overcome the EML capping with convective initiation Friday afternoon. Storm mode should quickly turn linear before tracking east. This squall line would likely pose a severe risk Friday afternoon and early evening. Additionally, CSU ML probabilities would support a severe threat as well.

The weekend will turn colder behind the front with highs in the 40s. The Saturday potential wintry mix/snow/slop looks less likely than it did 24 hours ago, notably the 00Z ECMWF & AIFS guidance no longer advertise the snow chance as they're weaker and further north with the system, but interestingly enough the GFS/GEM/ICON now support a brief period of snow. So what does this mean for your weekend forecast? It'll be colder with a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Sunday is dry, but remains chilly. It should be a good weekend to stay inside and finish up any projects before the warmer weather arrives for good.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low stratus continues to push east, allowing for sites to gradually clear out as the afternoon progresses. SCT coverage is expected from late this afternoon through this evening, then another round of fog/low stratus is expected overnight through daybreak Wednesday morning. Conditions expected to drop to IFR for central-eastern MN through western WI, potentially into LIFR/VLIFR around sunrise. Conditions will then gradually improve through the late morning hours to VFR by late morning to early afternoon. Light NW winds will drop to light/variable, if not calm, overnight which will aid in fog development.

KMSP...VFR to start and remain as such into the early morning hours before conditions become degraded due to fog and low stratus. Ceilings expected to drop to around 600', and potentially as low as 200' around sunrise. Improvement expected from late morning onward and eventually back to VFR by Wednesday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
FRI.. MVFR/SHRA likely, chance -TSRA. Wind SE to SW 10-15G25kts.
SAT.. MVFR ceilings. Chance IFR/-RASN. Wind NW 15G25-30kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.