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FXUS63 KMPX 040923 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 323 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- A few light snow showers or flurries still possible later today and tonight, but minimal impacts expected.

- Highs in the 50s still likely along and south of I-94 in MN Wednesday and Thursday.

- More seasonable temperatures next weekend, and the forecast continues to trend dry.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 257 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

TODAY AND TOMORROW...Light winds and some low level moisture led to areas of fog across the region this morning. This was radiation fog, so it visibility should start to improve as southerly winds increase later this morning ahead of a shortwave trough, and the fog transitions to more of a stratus deck. This shortwave trough should produce some light snow showers or flurries as it passes through the region, but measurable precipitation is unlikely except possibly along the Minnesota River Valley in southwest Minnesota, and also in western Wisconsin Monday night as another area of precipitation will redevelop. Rain/snow is the most likely precipitation type, becoming more snow Monday night. By Tuesday the system will have moved east, so expect dry conditions with clearing skies and light northerly winds.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...An impressive warm up will commence on Wednesday and last through the end of the work week as an area of lee-side warmed air develops over the High Plains, and moves eastward across the Upper Midwest. We increased afternoon highs above the blended guidance, with most locations expected to be in the 40s, and 50s on Thursday. Record highs are within reach. Forecast highs are at 49 at KEAU, 51 at KMSP, and 48 at KSTC, and records are 49 at KEAU, 54 at KMSP, and 53 at KSTC.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A fairly strong storm system will track across Canada, and this will escort a trailing cold front with small chances for rain/snow through the Upper Midwest which will cool off temperatures back into the 30s for highs, and upper teens for lows this weekend and early next week.
Meanwhile another large system will develop over the Ohio River Valley, but this too will most likely miss us to the southeast.
As the previous discussion mentioned, no significant weather systems expected anytime soon.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

LIFR conditions have developed across parts of western MN, which will likely build east overnight to fill in the clearing between the current fog and the stratus along and east of the Mississippi River. It will be slow to improve Monday, in fact where dense fog does form it may remain into mid to late morning.

KMSP...VFR should remain in place overnight. The fog across western MN will approach, but likely only result in IFR cigs from about 12Z onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MNZ041-042- 047>049-054>058-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-092.
WI...None.

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