Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Northfield, MN
July 3, 2024 12:34 AM CDT (05:34 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:31 AM Sunset 9:02 PM Moonrise 1:59 AM Moonset 6:33 PM |
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 030336 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Another round of rain ongoing this afternoon, best chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms from south central MN to western WI.
- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for the 4th of July.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight and Tomorrow... Pockets of light showers are making their way into western Minnesota, while some heavier showers/storms are tracking into portions of southern Minnesota. Satellite imagery shows widespread low level stratus still hanging around across much of Wisconsin this afternoon, with some cooler cloud tops starting to pop up along the Iowa/Minnesota border associated with the convection. Any stronger storms should stay south into Iowa where the greatest instability is located, given there has been less persistent cloud cover there. These showers will continue into the evening, spreading further north and east over time. As this system exits, ridging will move in, allowing for a really solid summer day tomorrow with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.
Thursday and Friday... This is looking more and more likely to be an active period as model agreement argues for rain chances starting Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday evening. There could be multiple periods of rain as the upper level trough gradually makes its way east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. The current forecast calls for widespread 0.5-1" of rain, with up to 2+" possible for areas across west- central and southern Minnesota. Given the recent stretch of above normal rainfall, there is a lower threshold for flooding within this area. Any rain that falls in the morning would be more showery, while the afternoon/evening could bring heavy showers and storms. The severity of any storms that develop would be largely dependent on how the morning rain pans out.
More persistent and drawn out rain would favor less instability for PM storms, while more off-and-on morning showers with a peek of sunshine in between would favor more instability for thunderstorm development later in the day. Overall, the severe threat is marginal (level 1 out of 5), but given the amount of outdoor events taking place during the holiday, even just some general thunder bears watching out for.
The Weekend... The active weather could continue into the weekend as a shortwave looks to slide down from Canada. Timing on this is still uncertain, but is currently favored to move into northwestern Minnesota by late Saturday and then track southeast into Sunday morning. Amounts look to be on the lighter side, but could again impact any outdoor events taking place during this busy weekend.
Temperatures will stay around average for this time of year, ranging from the low 60s for lows to low 80s for highs.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
For EAU, IFR cigs and patchy mist will linger for the next couple of hours before clouds finally clear to our east.
Elsewhere, VFR expected at all terminals with only high clouds during tomorrow, though more clouds will start to arrive from the west Wednesday evening. West-southwesterly winds will be around 5 knots overnight, becoming westerly at around 10 knots during Wednesday. Some gusts to 20 knots are possible during the afternoon. Winds will slow to calm/variable Wednesday evening.
KMSP...Westerly winds could gust to above 20 knots during Wednesday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind N 10G20 kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind W 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1036 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Another round of rain ongoing this afternoon, best chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms from south central MN to western WI.
- Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely for the 4th of July.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 316 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
Tonight and Tomorrow... Pockets of light showers are making their way into western Minnesota, while some heavier showers/storms are tracking into portions of southern Minnesota. Satellite imagery shows widespread low level stratus still hanging around across much of Wisconsin this afternoon, with some cooler cloud tops starting to pop up along the Iowa/Minnesota border associated with the convection. Any stronger storms should stay south into Iowa where the greatest instability is located, given there has been less persistent cloud cover there. These showers will continue into the evening, spreading further north and east over time. As this system exits, ridging will move in, allowing for a really solid summer day tomorrow with temperatures in the low 80s and mostly sunny skies.
Thursday and Friday... This is looking more and more likely to be an active period as model agreement argues for rain chances starting Thursday morning and lasting through early Friday evening. There could be multiple periods of rain as the upper level trough gradually makes its way east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for localized heavy rain and flooding concerns. The current forecast calls for widespread 0.5-1" of rain, with up to 2+" possible for areas across west- central and southern Minnesota. Given the recent stretch of above normal rainfall, there is a lower threshold for flooding within this area. Any rain that falls in the morning would be more showery, while the afternoon/evening could bring heavy showers and storms. The severity of any storms that develop would be largely dependent on how the morning rain pans out.
More persistent and drawn out rain would favor less instability for PM storms, while more off-and-on morning showers with a peek of sunshine in between would favor more instability for thunderstorm development later in the day. Overall, the severe threat is marginal (level 1 out of 5), but given the amount of outdoor events taking place during the holiday, even just some general thunder bears watching out for.
The Weekend... The active weather could continue into the weekend as a shortwave looks to slide down from Canada. Timing on this is still uncertain, but is currently favored to move into northwestern Minnesota by late Saturday and then track southeast into Sunday morning. Amounts look to be on the lighter side, but could again impact any outdoor events taking place during this busy weekend.
Temperatures will stay around average for this time of year, ranging from the low 60s for lows to low 80s for highs.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024
For EAU, IFR cigs and patchy mist will linger for the next couple of hours before clouds finally clear to our east.
Elsewhere, VFR expected at all terminals with only high clouds during tomorrow, though more clouds will start to arrive from the west Wednesday evening. West-southwesterly winds will be around 5 knots overnight, becoming westerly at around 10 knots during Wednesday. Some gusts to 20 knots are possible during the afternoon. Winds will slow to calm/variable Wednesday evening.
KMSP...Westerly winds could gust to above 20 knots during Wednesday afternoon.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...MVFR/IFR SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...MVFR SHRA/TSRA likely. Wind N 10G20 kts.
SAT...Chance MVFR/SHRA/TSRA, mainly PM. Wind W 5-10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSYN STANTON AIRFIELD,MN | 8 sm | 19 min | W 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.80 | |
| KFBL FARIBAULT MUNILIZ WALL STROHFUS FIELD,MN | 12 sm | 19 min | SW 04 | 7 sm | Clear | 64°F | 64°F | 100% | 29.82 | |
| KLVN AIRLAKE,MN | 12 sm | 19 min | WSW 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 66°F | 100% | 29.81 | |
| KOWA OWATONNA DEGNER RGNL,MN | 24 sm | 21 min | SW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.82 |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KSYN
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSYN
toggle option: (graph/table)
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KSYN
Wind History graph: SYN
(wind in knots)
Minneapolis, MN,
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