Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stowe, VT

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 602 PM EST Sunday...No significant changes were needed with this update. Clouds are slowly spreading eastward this evening, mainly over northern NY at this time, but they should start moving into VT shortly. Note that light radar returns can be seen moving into western and northern NY, but surface observations and webcam imagery indicate this is mostly virga with little to no snow reaching the ground. Temperatures are mainly in the mid teens to mid/upper 20s, and with increasing cloud cover, don't anticipate drastic cooling overnight. The forecast has this all covered, so only changes with this update were some minor tweaks to sky cover to match the latest satellite trends.

Previous discussion...For many, today it's been a seasonally mild day with plenty of sunshine. However, for portions of the Northern Adirondacks, it's been anything but mild or sunny.
Subsidence associated with low level and mid level high pressure has been a blessing and a curse as it's kept moisture away from Vermont but trapped across northern New York. The good news, however, is that the latest satellite imagery shows these clouds beginning to fizzle out but it likely won't be until after sunset that we see clearer skies across that area. We will continue to see clear (or clearing skies across NY) through the evening hours but mid level clouds will quickly overspread the region after midnight as a warm front begins to lift towards the North Country. We will see the warm front move into New York around sunrise on Monday and into Vermont shortly thereafter. As winds shift to the south, we will see some warm air advection, although rather minor in the grand scheme of things. This will allow temperatures on Monday to warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s while winds could gust up to 25 mph.

A cold front will quickly move into New York during the early afternoon hours and bring a round of snow showers to the North Country. The latest high-res guidance shows that we could see upwards of 75-100 J/kg of CAPE in the afternoon, boundary layer winds up to 30 knots, and weak frontogenesis. The combination of these ingredients will likely yield some convective snow showers and potentially even a snow squall or two. The timing of these snow showers will likely coincide with the evening commute across New York which could create reduced visibilities. Given temperatures will warm above freezing a few locations tomorrow, the potential for a flash freeze in the wake of the snow showers cannot also be ruled out. For Vermont, the forcing is expected to weaken as the front moves into Vermont while the instability will also wane given the time of day. Snow showers remain possible for Vermont but are less likely and will be less intense. Lake effect snow will begin to move into southern St. Lawrence County in NY Monday night with 1-3 inches of snow likely through Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 248 PM EST Sunday...Westerly cyclonic flow continues through the day on Tuesday. Some moisture off Lake Ontario looks to get transported into northern New York, but any significant banding should stay to the south. Snow showers will fall in parts of the Adirondacks and northern Greens but accumulations should be relatively light. The Champlain Valley will likely be downsloped and not receive much of anything. Relatively unblocked flow should also keep most of the snow showers above the western slopes. The flow becomes northwesterly Tuesday night, and it becomes moister and moire blocked. This will reinvigorate the upslope snow showers and they should become widespread in the northern Greens and northern Adirondacks where several inches are expected. Flow should eventually become more blocked, so the western slopes and Champlain Valley should be able to get into some snow showers as well. A saturated DGZ with lift will allow for dendrites and efficient accumulations. The snow showers become lighter and less widespread as Wednesday progresses, but they look to linger a bit into Wednesday night in the most favored areas. While the upslope looks similar to last week on Wednesday morning, the duration will be much shorter.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 248 PM EST Sunday...Drier conditions look to prevail for the end of the week, though a few snow showers are possible as a weak disturbance moves through. Southwesterly flow develops for Friday into Saturday, and it looks to briefly send temperatures above freezing in the broad valleys for Saturday. A potent cold front looks to pass through Saturday night and bring some precipitation with it. Due to the above freezing low- levels, it may start briefly as rain there before switching to snow. However, any precipitation with this front looks to be on the lighter side. A low will try to develop along this front after it has passed to the south and could bring more significant snow, but there is large model spread. The only area of agreement is that this low would likely develop to our south so any of this heavier precipitation would likely be snow everywhere. Behind this storm, temperatures will be sharply colder and it could be the first arctic airmass of the season.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through much of the forecast period. Some lower clouds, around 4-5 kft, will continue across northern New York this afternoon while clear skies will prevail elsewhere. Mid- level clouds will move overhead Monday morning with ceilings gradually lowering close to MVFR levels by 18Z Monday. Gusty south winds are expected Monday afternoon with gusts between 15 to 25 knots likely at most locations. A few snow showers may impact KMSS early on Monday but the best snow chances will be after 18Z Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Scattered SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible.
Likely SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.