Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stowe, VT

KEY MESSAGES
As of 213 PM EST Tuesday...

1. A widespread light to moderate snowfall remains on track for this evening into tonight. Heaviest snowfall rates will likely affect the evening commute from northern New York eastward into the Champlain Valley and n-central VT. Expect slow travel.

2. Temperatures will be seasonable through most of the week, then less cold into the weekend.

3. Warmer temperatures and chances for precipitation are expected this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION
As of 213 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An Alberta clipper system is beginning to push into the region from west to east. This light to moderate long duration snowfall is expected to drop between 2 to 6 inches of generally fluffy snow this evening into tonight. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 AM Wednesday for the St.
Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks, and from 2 PM today through 7 AM Wednesday for the northern Champlain Valley and portions in Vermont along and east of the Green Mountains.
Guidance continues to prog a period of enhanced mid-level frontogenesis associated with waa this evening, supporting a few hours of heavy snow. The heaviest snow bands will arrive during the Tuesday evening commute, between 2-6 PM across northern New York, and 5-9 PM across the Champlain Valley and northern Greens. Snow showers are ongoing across northeastern New York, and should start in the Champlain Valley by 3-4 PM. The HRRR shows this band could have 1 to 1.5 inch per hour rates, resulting in 1 to 3 inches of moderate heavy snow in this short window moving from west to east. This will likely yield widespread slow travel conditions due to snow covered roads and vsby down to 1/4 mile late this afternoon and this evening.
Overall, the moisture content of the system is only modest with PWATs in both hi res guidance to 0.5." It will still be quite difficult to eek out higher totals above 6". Another limitation to higher totals will be the presence of a 850mb southwest low level jet. Model soundings denote a 35-45kt jet at 850mb with a mean column wind near 20-30kts. Mountain summits will likely see gusts up to 30 knots. This jet will shred dendrites, but will aid in enhancing frontogenesis on the leading edge of the system. Shadowing from the Adirondacks will likely lead to reduced snowfall in the 2-4" range across the southern Champlain Valley including wrn Addison and Rutland Counties, and eastern Essex County NY.

As the center of the low shifts east and the surface low deepens, there is a chance for a brief dry slot to develop across the southern Champlain Valley and southern Vermont which will lead to snow showers tapering off. The snow by late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will turn more showery as the main forcing shifts east and northwest blocked flow focuses the snow into the more upslope favored areas along the western facing slopes of the northern Greens and northwestern Adirondacks.

Winds will continue to turn north during the day Wednesday with stronger caa surging south into the Champlain Valley as an upper low slides east. A brief period of resurging snow showers in the CPV is possible by Wednesday afternoon/evening with froude numbers still below 0.5. An additional half inch to an inch is possible with these upslope snow showers and perhaps into portions of the Vermont Champlain Valley that are closer to Lake Champlain given most of the lake is currently frozen over.
Additional snow amounts from upslope snow showers in the western facing northern Adirondacks and northern Greens will be in the 2-4" range. These snow showers will be fluffy with snow ratios in the 15-20:1 range. Some additional winter travel conditions can be expected Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, especially across the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind the mid week clipper system, temperatures will return to more seasonable levels with 925mb temperatures near -5C to -15C. The prolonged trough responsible for our extended cold snap will be off to our east which will limit any precipitation chances as we look to sit atop a 1025mb high that will swing to our south. Temperatures will continue to rise into the weekend ahead of a southern stream of energy that will approach the region by next week. Probabilities of reaching above freezing peak on Sunday at 60- 80%, higher across southern Vermont. Overnight lows may still be cold through this week as clearing overnight skies, low overnight dewpoints, and a fresh snowpack from today and tomorrow lead to decent radiative cooling conditions. Precipitation chances will be limited through the rest of the week with high pressure overhead, however, a quick moving shortwave late Friday could provide enough forcing for some chances of snow showers across the higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGE 3: By late this weekend into the beginning of next week, temperatures will continue to warm, with above freezing temperatures expected across the region after a prolonged stretch of cold across the region. Daytime high temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look to reach into the mid to upper 30s, with some locations possibly nearing 40. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding precipitation chances for this weekend into Monday, although global deterministic guidance continues to trend towards a drier solution.
Probabilistic guidance still shows the potential for some light snow across the region, although only a 20 percent chance of seeing over an inch of snow throughout this time period. Some additional chances for precipitation will be possible early next week, with some rain possibly mixing into lower elevations given warmer temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Through 00Z Thursday...Vermont and northern New York are currently within a swath of quickly translating snow. Highest snowfall rates and sharpest visibility reductions expected through the period are occurring right now. The region of prevailing snow is at the western periphery of the St. Lawrence Valley and will edge east over the next 2-3 hours. Cloud ice decreases about 03z-09z. There's competing influences of dry air and relatively fast flow, such that most areas have noted a PROB30 of either snow or freezing drizzle depending on what had the highest chance in probability of weather type. Some LLWS is possible, mainly for KSLK and KRUT. Ceilings will be about 1000-2500 ft agl. Some breaks to VFR are possible, but by 11-14z, ceilings will fall and snow showers will again increase as flow becomes northwesterly. Noted visibility reducing between 2-4SM in snow showers, except at KPBG, where snow seems less likely. Wind speeds pick up to 6 to 11 knots after 17z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE
As of 912 AM EST Tuesday...

In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 is this Sunday, February 15th. If that forecast holds, that would be 23 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks surpassing 22 days are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015 and only occurring 25 times going back across the last 141 winter seasons.

EQUIPMENT
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for VTZ001>008-010-016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for NYZ026>031-034-087.