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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stowe, VT

June 25, 2024 12:56 AM EDT (04:56 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:43 PM
Moonrise 11:42 PM   Moonset 8:50 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stowe, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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879 FXUS61 KBTV 250223 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1023 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

An area of low pressure causing showers this afternoon and evening will move east tonight, and high pressure builds in for tomorrow.
This will lead to a sunny and much warmer day. A cold front approaches on Wednesday and brings the possibility for strong storms and heavy rainfall.

As of 1022 PM EDT Monday...Showers have come to an end and skies are clearing quickly. It`s not taking long for fog to develop where skies are clearing with Saranac Lake dropping to 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility already. It`s feasible to think this trend will continue eastward as clouds erode with widespread patchy fog come daybreak.

Previous Discussion...Showers are expected to dwindle this evening and tonight as low pressure moves off to the east and is replaced by building high pressure and ridging. Any additional rainfall from lingering showers will amount to up to 0.25". Ridging will also allow skies to gradually clear throughout the night tonight, and temperatures should drop into the 50s for most, which is roughly seasonable for late June in our forecast area. With clearing skies, high pressure subsidence, and recent rainfall, there is the potential for some patchy fog tonight, particularly in the more typical valleys spots.

The ridge will crest over us tomorrow, and 925mb temperatures are expected to be in the 22-24 C range, which should allow surface temperatures to climb into the 80s by tomorrow afternoon. Increasing moisture in the atmosphere and a shortwave trough will bring clouds into the area from the west throughout the day tomorrow, which could limit temperatures slightly. Tomorrow night, a warm front will cross the forecast area, producing some light rain showers, most likely over northern New York and northern Vermont. Rain will be light, perhaps up to a tenths of an inch at most. This warm front and the increased clouds will allow low temperatures to simmer in the 60s throughout tomorrow night, a noticeable difference from the cooler weather we expect tonight.

As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Model evolution for Wednesday system has changed a bit from runs 12- 24 hours ago. Most feature a slightly more southerly track resulting in a shift in best instability and track of heaviest rainfall. As such, daytime precipitation chances were largely reduced early Monday before increasing again Monday afternoon and overnight. The system trajectory is now favored more on a southwest/northeast track in the consensus with moderate rain probable across mainly southern Vermont. NAM/mesoscale models continue to be drier with an even farther south placement of the surface low and could see a forecast trend in this direction should other global models/ensembles trend similarly. Still, ample moisture, a forcing mechanism, and elevated instability will keep chances of thunderstorms going late Wednesday into the overnight hours before the surface feature tracks eastward into Maine by Thursday morning. Temperatures should warm into the 80s during the day temperatures cooling into the 50s and 60s overnight.

As of 344 PM EDT Monday...Shower chances diminish early Thursday with cool air advection and building high pressure under northerly flow.
Dry conditions will likely prevail into the weekend with highs ranging from the mid/upper 60s to the mid/upper 70s Thursday and Friday. Conditions begin to change Saturday ahead of the next system projected to move through the region. Southerly flow will likely increase as models show an amplified trough approaching the region.
Thermal/pressure gradients will be moderately tight resulting in some southerly breezes likely into the 20-30mph range. While the system has system has some robust characteristics and upper level support, amplitude of the longwave favors a fast moving wave. Timing will be key in determining characteristics of sensible weather, but right now frontal passage is favored over Saturday night. Some thunderstorms are projected off of elevated instability and relative forcing, but the nocturnal passage will limit overall strength.
Could see another round of moderate rainfall with this system keeping soils wet. High pressure appears poised to fill in behind this wave with dry conditions probable to start the next work week.

Through 00z Wednesday...Except for an isolated heavier shower approaching the international border resulting in brief MVFR visibilities at KEFK, all terminals are VFR to start the TAF period. Wind become light and variable. With clearing skies and plenty of low-level moisture from recent rainfall, periods of fog are expected to develop across most sites. Highest confidence is across KMPV and KSLK, but it is possible to see patchy fog as well across KBTV, KEFK and KPBG as well. Main period of reduced visibilities from fog is between 05z and 10z time frame, where conditions deteriorate to MVFR or locally IFR. After 11z, winds turn to the southwest at 7-10 kt and conditions improve to VFR across all sites.


Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Lake Champlain through about 8 PM due to winds 15-25 knots, gusts up to around 30 knots, and waves building to 3-5 feet in gusty showers.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 6 sm2 mincalm5 smMostly Cloudy Mist 55°F54°F94%29.79
KMPV EDWARD F KNAPP STATE,VT 20 sm5 minSSE 0410 smClear54°F52°F94%29.82
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Burlington, VT,

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