Sunrise 5:49 AM   Sunset 7:51 PM Moonrise 10:05 PM   Moonset 6:19 AM

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FXUS61 KBTV 251907 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 307 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue across the region through Friday night, resulting in clear skies, light winds, and comfortable temperatures. Another chilly night is anticipated tonight with lows mid teens to upper 20s, followed by temperatures warming into the 50s to near 60 degrees on Friday. The next chance of showers arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Sfc analysis places 1030mb high pres over the eastern Great Lakes with clear skies and light winds expected tonight. Have basically copied last nights lows for tonight into the fcst with values ranging from mid teens to mid/upper 20s, coldest NEK/SLK and warmest Lake Champlain. For Friday little change is anticipated with clear skies and light trrn driven winds. Did utilize the 10th percentile dwpts from the NBM as a small target of opportunity. This results in min aftn rh values in the 12% to 22% range with driest conditions acrs portions of the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Given the very dry air mass, feel temps wl overachieve, even after a cool start. Highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Another quiet and cool night is anticipated on Friday night, but with southerly winds and warming 925mb thermal profiles lows range from mid 20s NEK to mid/upper 30s wider valleys.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Through the weekend upper level ridging and surface high pressure will largely dominate, but an approaching/weakening warm front and a weak embedded shortwave riding over the ridge will present the chance for some showers, the best being Saturday evening/night. Saturday will be mainly dry for most of the daylight hours before the aforementioned warm front approaches the region from the southwest late in the afternoon into the evening. With a very dry airmass in place, rising PWATs to around 1" Saturday night will initially go towards moistening the low/mid levels of the atmosphere, with light showers developing for a short period during the overnight hours. As the front decays over the region early Sunday, showers will diminish again for much of of the day, but weak shortwave energy rounding the ridge will present additional chances for showers and perhaps some embedded thunder during the late afternoon into early overnight hours, mainly across northern zones. By no means is either day a washout, you just might be dodging some showers here and there.

Overall temps will be on the mild side of normal with highs both days in the 60s to around 70, and lows in the 40s east to 50s west Saturday night, and widespread 50s Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into next week the pattern remains fairly active but non- impactful with several frontal passages likely, bracketed by upper level ridging. Monday will be the pick of the weak with an upper ridge firmly overhead and temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. The first and weaker of 2 fronts arrives Monday night into Tuesday with showers likely Tuesday and maybe some rumbles of thunder. Dry conditions develop again for Tuesday night through midday Wednesday, with a stronger cold front passage on track for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. This front has the best potential for thunderstorm development right now based on progged CAPE up to 1000J/kg and colder 500mb temps near -20c rolling in behind the boundary. Nothing is jumping out as severe, but a few stronger cells could be possible.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 18Z Friday...High confidence of VFR at all 7 TAF sites for the next 24 hours associated with surface high pressure directly overhead. North-northwest winds 4 to 8 knots this aftn will become light and terrain driven overnight and continue light and variable on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

CLIMATE
Record Low Temperatures:

April 26: KMPV: 22/1967 KPBG: 23/1972

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 29: KBTV: 55/2013 KPBG: 57/1974

April 30: KPBG: 54/2004

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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