Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Stowe, VT

Version 3.4
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8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:37PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 10:16 PM EDT (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 4:12AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stowe, VT
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location: 44.47, -72.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 292323 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 723 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Rain will become widespread across the North Country overnight as a cold front moves slowly eastward through the region. Rain will be moderate to heavy this evening through Wednesday morning with total rainfall potentially in the one to two inch range. Temperatures will trend to seasonal normals behind the front on Wednesday and Thursday. Below normal temperatures are expected for the weekend. Showers will be possible on Thursday and become more likely on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 659 PM EDT Tuesday . The slow moving cold front is now positioned across eastern Vermont as rain continues to slowly track northeastward into the North Country. The greatest amount of rain thus far can be seen across the Adirondacks with near 1/2 inch received within the past 6 hours. Rain will continue through the overnight hours into Wednesday. Slight adjustments were made to the precipitation forecast to reflect current observations, though still expecting 1-2 inches by Wednesday afternoon. In addition, minor tweaks were made to the hourly temperatures and dewpoints to account for the sharp gradient currently across Vermont because of the cold front. The rest of the going forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below.

Previous Discussion . Cold front continues to push eastward across the region today, with winds turning to north northwesterly behind the front and temperatures already dropping a good 10-15 degrees. Rain showers have spread across the region along and behind the front, and will become more widespread overnight. Temperatures will not fall too far overnight, due to clouds and precipitation across our area. Still anticipate rain to be heavy at times, especially across Vermont as axis of higher than normal precipitation water will be in place. Higher precipitable water moves east of the region Wednesday morning as surface trough also moves east of Vermont. Will see some residual showers during the daylight hours on Wed, but the general trend will be for less showers as the day wears on and we lose the deep moisture in the low and mid levels. Another upper level shortwave approaches the region later Wednesday night Wednesday night as upper level trough remains over the north country. Best chance for showers with this feature will be in the St Lawrence valley and along and North of the international border. Rainfall totals from today through Wednesday afternoon will be around an inch to an inch and three quarters, some totals over 2 inches are possible as well. Rivers are very low due to the lack of precipitation this month so there are no flooding concerns. Rainfall will be more beneficial than impactful.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday . An almost full-latitude upper trough will be the dominant feature to impact the North Country's weather for the middle to end of the work week. In the wake of exiting low pressure and its associated frontal passage the previous day, mid/upper level moisture will be fairly dry for Thursday and Thursday night precluding any widespread chances for precipitation. However, ample low-level moisture and continued broad southwest flow in the low/mid levels with the base of the aforementioned trough still to our west supports the idea of some lake effect showers across northern New York with soundings continuing to show some very weak surface instability forming through the day. Any isolated showers should be mainly confined to the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks, with high temps returning back to seasonal normals in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

A few showers may linger into the Thursday evening hours, but overall Thursday night should be fairly dry with lows ranging through the 40s. Early Friday morning though, chances for precipitation increase again as the aforementioned upper trough digs/sharpens across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes with a weak surface low developing along a stalled frontal boundary over the New England coast. Potent shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough is progged to track right over the BTV CWA and this combined backing low level flow ushering in PWATs around 3/4" should develop some fairly widespread showers by mid-day. Showers should then continue through the remainder of the daylight hours before dissipating Friday night as cold high pressure begins to build in from the NNW. Highs Friday will be chilly in the 50s, and lows Friday night even chillier in the 30s/40s with some areas of frost possible.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday . A dry but cold weekend is on tap as high pressure builds over the region. Aloft we remain in broad southwest flow so despite the high pressure, we should still see partly cloudy skies through the period which may impact chances for frost as low temps will range through the 30s to locally around 40 in the deeper valleys. Highs will be several degrees below normal as well in the 50s, nice fall weather! Looking out further to the beginning of next week, while still some uncertainty given it's days 6-7, ECMWF and GDPS are in good agreement showing a cutoff low developing over the central CONUS Sunday night that tracks into the mid-Atlantic and Northeast Monday into Tuesday. The GFS shows the same, but offers a less amplified upper ridge ahead of the trough which allows a developing coastal low to move offshore while the ECMWF/GDPS solution steers it up the East coast. Time will tell what happens here, but given 2/3 models are in agreement have begun to increase PoPs to at least 40% for the period. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Through 00Z Thursday . A lull in rainfall is being observed across the region this evening with the exception of some light rain currently situated over KMSS. We will see rainfall slowly spread from west to east this evening with rainfall encompassing all TAF sites by 7Z. As moisture increases underneath a stable surface layer, ceilings will drop between 600 ft and 1200 ft over the next few hours and continue through 12Z before a gradual improvement is seen throughout the day. Visibilities likely won't be terrible with this rain but we could briefly see 1-2 SM visibilities with heavier showers over the 04Z to 12Z timeframe. A brief period of wind shear is expected at KMPV and KRUT this evening as winds aloft remain from the southwest while surface winds have begun to shift to the northeast. Ceilings and visibilities will trend toward VFR by 14Z with just a few showers continuing throughout the day across northern New York.

Outlook .

Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

HYDROLOGY. As of 414 PM EDT Tuesday . Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are anticipated overnight associated with cold front which is slowly pushing across our area. Much of the region should see rainfall totals in the 1 to 1.75 inch range, but some areas across Vermont could approach 2 inches. However, river levels are abnormally low across the area and will be able to handle the rainfall. As a result, no flooding is expected at this time.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Neiles NEAR TERM . Hammond/Neiles SHORT TERM . Lahiff LONG TERM . Lahiff AVIATION . Clay HYDROLOGY . Evenson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45178 39 mi77 min N 3.9 56°F 62°F1009 hPa (+0.0)
45188 47 mi77 min SSW 5.8 58°F 61°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Morrisville-Stowe State Airport, VT6 mi23 minNNE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F93%1009.6 hPa
Barre / Montpelier, Knapp State Airport, VT19 mi26 minN 010.00 miOvercast60°F60°F100%1010.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMVL

Wind History from MVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3S6S63CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW12
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S9SW7N9NE9NE10NE10N3CalmNE3
1 day agoS8S5NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S12
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2 days agoS5CalmCalmS8S8SW5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS5SW12S12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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