Jericho, VT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Jericho, VT

April 21, 2024 3:23 AM EDT (07:23 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM
Moonrise 5:38 PM   Moonset 5:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jericho, VT
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Scattered showers will persist into the evening hours, with any stronger activity capable of producing gusty winds and small hail or graupel. Sunday and Monday will be mainly dry, but cooler, especially Monday after a strong cold frontal passage Sunday night.
Temperatures will warm briefly on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing as we head into the middle of the week.

As of 123 AM EDT Sunday...A quiet night across the region this evening with mostly clear skies. The current forecast remain in good shape, with only some small tweaks to sky cover to reflect latest satellite.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Scattered showers have developed across the region as anticipated this afternoon. Given the dry airmass that is now in place (dewpoints are currently in the 20s to around 30F in most locations), some showers have already produced wind gusts up to 45 mph as they've moved through northern NY. This trend will continue through the evening hours, along with the potential for pea-sized hail or graupel.
Temperatures have dropped sharply under the showers as well, as much as 5-10F in just 20 minutes.

All this activity is associated with a potent upper trough which is swinging overhead. This feature will shift east of our region overnight, and this along with the loss of daytime heating will allow showers to wane. Winds will subside overnight as well, though some occasional gusts will continue to be possible. Skies will briefly clear out early, but clouds will increase later tonight into early Sunday as lingering low-level moisture becomes trapped under a weak inversion. This along with the winds will help limit radiational cooling overnight; lows will range from the upper 20s to the mid 30s.

Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will linger into early Sunday afternoon, but expect the daytime hours to be dry. Daytime mixing will bring increasing winds and lowering dewpoints during the afternoon. Highs will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s, but brisk winds could make it feel a bit on the chilly side, especially where clouds linger. Another robust upper shortwave trough will swing down toward the international border Sunday night while a strong cold front pushes southward across our region. Moisture will be quite limited, but given the strong dynamics, a few showers will be possible as the front moves through, mainly over the northern mountains. Any precipitation would likely fall as snow or a rain/snow mix, and some light accumulation will be possible. A reinforcing shot of cold and dry air will follow the front, and temperatures will drop into the low 20s to around 30F by early Monday morning.

As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Expect a sunny sky with below normal temperatures on Monday in the wake of a strong cold front. The main story for the day will be very low humidity, likely dropping to near or below 20% during the day in many locations. The synoptic pattern of surface high pressure to our west and surface trough over the Canadian Maritimes is consistent with local studies for fire danger in April and May. A strongly anomalous lobe of Arctic air will be to our north, characterized by 500 millibar heights more than 3 sigma below normal in central Quebec and 850 millibar temperatures more than 20 degrees Celsius below normal Monday morning. We will be avoid the brunt of the cold air as the upper level low gyres back to the north during the day. Still, with low level cold air advection temperatures will only warm through the 40s, resulting in highs roughly ten degrees below normal despite full sunshine. Deep mixing due to the very dry air and sunshine will contribute to the lower relatively humidity values, probably bottoming out in the mid afternoon hours. While we should see gusty winds, the surface pressure gradient looks weak enough to keep the magnitude of gusts relatively low, near 20 MPH for most spots.

As the upper trough retreats, we will gradually become influenced instead by an air mass of Pacific origins that will be moving eastward across the northern Plains. As a broad zone of surface high pressure sets up out across the southeastern US Monday night, lowering pressure across our region will induce increasingly breezy south winds in a dramatic reversal from the previous night. If these breezes materialize on the earlier side, low temperatures will occur well before sunrise. Expect strong warm air advection, with 12 hour 850 millibar temperature rises of 4 to 9 degrees Celsius between 2 PM Monday and 2 AM Tuesday, greatest in northern/western areas and smallest in southern Vermont, but with dry air and ridging aloft no precipitation will occur during this period.

As of 344 PM EDT Saturday...Tuesday will be a much warmer day than Monday due to continued warm air advection and sunshine. A tongue of warm temperature anomalies will rapidly shift eastward across the Great Lakes into our region during the day, with surface temperatures likely to surge into the upper 50s to mid 60s by mid- afternoon. Southerly winds ahead of an approaching significant trough will channel through the wide valleys and could be stronger than currently indicated. NBM probabilities of peak wind gusts reaching 40 MPH are above 40% in locations such as Massena, NY and Burlington, VT. Probabilities of wind gusts reaching advisory level are much lower; we don't expect any wind hazards at this time.

If you're looking for warm spring weather, make sure to spend time outdoors by midday Wednesday because it dramatically colder weather will arrive after that time. In fact, a stretch of winterlike weather may make an unwelcome return behind a well-predicted cold front. The extent of any snowfall is highly uncertain as model guidance continues to be rather divergent on how a low pressure system evolves in our region. As a result, the degree of cold air, let alone precipitation amounts, ranges wildly as illustrated in mean 850 millibar temperatures in the most likely outcomes. The coldest solution features a very deep trough and closed upper level low due to phasing of Pacific and Polar jets. This idea, similar to the operational GFS, shows temperatures well below the interquartile range of global ensembles and supports measurable snow in the valley floors. Even two other reasonable solutions bring some snow to even the lower elevations late Wednesday into Thursday.

It's still too early to jump onto a single outcome, but some heavy wet snow is possible, particularly in westerly upslope favored locations. While highly unlikely to be on its scale, the timing is similar to the heavy snowfall on April 27-28, 2010 in northern Vermont that produced locally around 2 feet of snow. Given the low predictability of the period and plenty of time to hone in on details, will continue to stay with the NBM for weather elements in the Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night period. Thereafter, dry weather is favored to end the week with little indication of precipitation on Friday or Saturday at this time.

Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all sites, with mostly clear skies across the forecast area. VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for the forecast period, with some increasing clouds throughout the day and little to no precipitation. Winds this evening have be westerly to southwesterly and will generally remain less than 10 knots.
Between 13Z to 15Z, winds will become breezier, with wind gusts between 15 to 25 knots. No LLWS is currently expected during the forecast period.


Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KBTV BURLINGTON INTL,VT 8 sm29 minWNW 0610 smClear39°F27°F60%29.91
KMVL MORRISVILLESTOWE STATE,VT 21 sm29 minNW 0510 smA Few Clouds39°F27°F60%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KBTV

Wind History from BTV
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GEOS Local Image of north east   

Burlington, VT,

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