NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 120 AM EDT Thursday...No changes made to the forecast with this update other than some tweaks to reflect recent observations. Some mist and patchy fog have begun to develop in some of the more climatological spots. Excerpt of previous discussion below.

The center of high pressure which had been centered just to our south will have drifted to the east, which should support increased southerly winds rather than southwest/west flow that we saw today in most locations. However, the pressure gradient looks minimal as large ridge upstream over the Great Lakes region builds up and aids in weakening an already weak boundary approaching from our northwest. Its upper level feature will drag elevated moisture aloft, so in addition to haze we should see some partly to perhaps mostly cloudy skies associated with altocumulus, with most coverage during the morning hours. Model guidance is in good agreement in paltry moisture and lift beneath this cloud layer, so no rain is expected anywhere with any precipitation being virga.

Continued low level warm air advection through this period will support temperatures several degrees higher than today even with some cloud cover; highs will be largely from the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity will also come up a bit from today with most spots seeing dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s, making the air feel more summerlike while stopping short of being hot. Tomorrow night will continue the gradual warming trend with very little change in the large scale weather pattern. Low temperatures will mainly range through the 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...A shortwave pivots through on Friday and a weak surface cold front follows it. There looks to be just enough instability and the shortwave looks to be just strong enough that there could be a couple isolated showers in eastern Vermont. A significant amount of dry air in the mid-upper levels and a bit of a cap should help inhibit convection, but the ingredients still look to be favorable enough for a couple showers to form. Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s to mid 80s during the day, and there will be a touch of humidity with dew points in the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Winds shift to the northwest behind the front, but there will be minimal airmass change and winds will be too light for much advection. However, the front will be able to lower dew points slightly. Winds will go calm overnight and it should be another night with extensive fog in the climatologically favored valleys.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 326 PM EDT Wednesday...A rex block looks to prevail through this period, with a weak storm containing some tropical characteristics forming off the coast of the southeast, and an extensive area of stationary high pressure centering over southern Ontario. The region will be under the influence of the high pressure and no meaningful rain is expected. Persistence is the theme of the forecast, with minimal variability in the low and high temperatures.
The forecast highs and lows for Saturday-Wednesday generally do not change more than 5 degrees, and the change is as small as 2-3 degrees in many areas. Temperatures will be above the climatological normals and there will be a little bit of humidity, particularly in the broad valleys. During the beginning and middle of next week, tropical moisture will slowly move up the Atlantic Coast as the center of the surface high pushes out to the east. However, it looks like any showers would not be able to arrive until beyond the forecast period, and there is still high model uncertainty if they will even make it to the region at all.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06Z Friday...Mostly VFR conditions throughout the day, with the exception of some mist and fog forming across the region. This fog will lead to some localized IFR conditions at KSLK and KMPV through about 12Z, with some MVFR visibilities possible at KMSS and KPBG as well. Light winds overnight will become south to southwest less than 10 knots during the afternoon, before coming light and terrain driven towards 00Z.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.