Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ellsworth, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Showers over Downeast have moved off to the east, with low clouds remaining across most of the area. Instability will increase today ahead of the cold front expected on Thursday, and showers will redevelop, mainly across the North Woods. As the afternoon progresses, CAPEs will continue to increase and a narrow area of 1000+ J/kg is possible over the North Woods, so thunderstorms seem moderately likely in this area. 0-6km bulk shear is on the order of 20 to 30kts, so some gusty winds in stronger storms are possible in this area as well. Thunderstorms may hold together long enough to make it into NE Aroostook County, but by evening they will taper off. One factor that may dampen thunderstorm formation is whether we will break out of the clouds by early afternoon. This may limit areas from reaching the convective temp, again pointing to a day where there may be a few stronger storms but overall not widespread.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Subtropical high pressure off the East Coast will continue to lift warm and very humid air north across our area Thursday as low pressure approaches from the Eastern Great Lakes. This will bring a mostly cloudy day with an increasing southerly breeze ahead of the low. There are some discrepancies in the track of the low. Most of the models including the NAM and the ECMWF track the low along a warm frontal boundary to our north. This keeps most of the rain ahead of the low along, and just north of our northern border. The GFS, however, carries the low further south across the northern edge of our area bringing a more concentrated heavy rain to the north Thursday afternoon. However, this solution seems to be an outlier.
The entire area will have a risk of thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night as the cold front trails the low. CAPEs seem limited due to perhaps a marine influence in the southerly wind. However, there is significant shear in the warm sector and ample moisture so heavy rain is possible with PWATS approaching 2". Low pressure will move away to the ENE on Friday. Some showers will likely linger north where it will be mostly cloudy. Southern areas will be partly cloudy. This will be followed by clearing and a cooler night Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Ridging will build from the nation's midsection into the Southeast on Saturday as we remain in a west-northwesterly flow north of the ridge. A weak upper level disturbance sliding over the upper high may bring some showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday will be partly sunny and seasonable.
The ridge will build stronger along the East Coast late in the weekend pushing a warm frontal boundary north across our area. This may bring an isolated shower. Otherwise, Sunday will be partly sunny with a return of humidity. Ridging will be in control Monday into Tuesday bringing warmer and more humid conditions with highs approaching 80 each day. There is some uncertainty this far out how far north the northern edge of the ridge will be. The GFS has the northern edge well to our north through central Quebec which will bring more sunshine to the area. However, the ECMWF keeps a weak frontal boundary across our area through early next week which would bring better chances for scattered showers.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: Low clouds will persist through the day, bringing mainly MVFR conditions. BGR and BHB will remain IFR/LIFR in showers. Fog will be limited except for along the marine areas. Thunderstorms are possible across the north but risk of a thunderstorm directly over a TAF site is low. Wind will continue to be S'rly, 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts to 25kt mainly across the north.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday.. MVFR to IFR conditions north and IFR to LIFR conditions south in low clouds and fog are likely Thursday morning. Conditions should improve to MVFR Thursday but may remain IFR in fog along the coast. Winds light southerly.

Thursday night.. MVFR north and MVFR becoming IFR in low clouds south, with IFR conditions anywhere in any thunderstorms. Winds light SW.

Friday.. MVFR becoming VFR. Gusty NW winds.

Friday night...VFR. Light W winds.

Saturday...VFR. Light W wind.

Saturday night...VFR, except in patchy fog late. Light SW wind.

Sunday...VFR. Light SW wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria for the near term. Wave heights will continue to be 2 to 3 feet.

SHORT TERM: Wind and seas should remain below SCA this week into this weekend. Humid air over the colder waters will result in fog Wednesday through Thursday which could be dense on Thursday.
There may be some improvement in visibility Friday into the weekend following a cold front that brings in slightly less humid air.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.