Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oscoda, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale mid-upper level ridging evident over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS this afternoon with ~1032mb high pressure centered near the MN/Ontario border.
Meanwhile, sfc low pressure is beginning to develop lee of the Rockies with a disorganized warm front extending east across the Plains into the mid/upper MS Valley. By this evening, subtle shortwave energy is expected to be trekking through the parent ridge overhead, combined with this upstream boundary and increasing isentropic ascent inching closer, to yield scattered shower chances across parts of northern Michigan into tonight.

High pressure continues to gradually shift east through the day on Wednesday before centering squarely overhead Wednesday night. Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated Wednesday with a cool Wednesday night/Thursday morning on tap.

Forecast Details: Increasing mid-high cloud to be the rule through the remainder of the day in advance of increasing shower chances this evening/tonight. Think chances for these showers are primarily focused south of M-32 and to a greater extent, south of M-72. Rain amounts almost not even worth talking about -- looking minimal at best (less than a tenth of an inch for those that do see showers).

Any Wednesday morning clouds largely give way to mostly sunny skies for much of the day. Cooler, but seasonable temps, with highs in the 50s to low 60s area-wide. Light north winds during the day turn calm Wednesday night with mainly clear skies anticipated. Should be a pretty chilly night with lows largely in the low-upper 30s, although the interior typically colder locales potentially make a run toward the mid-20s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 211 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Day 3-4 (Thursday - Friday):

High pressure overhead to start the day Thursday fairly quickly drifts east ahead of upstream low pressure over the northern Plains.
Approaching warm front tied to that system will deliver our next shower chances Thursday night, although plenty of uncertainty with regard to how widespread/numerous those showers will be. Winds turn out of the south during the day with high temps progged to climb a handful of degrees over Wednesday -- largely topping out in the 60s area-wide.

Shower chances may linger into Friday, especially during the morning before the warm front clears to our north. This places northern MI in the warm/moist sector of this system evidenced by highs back in the mid-upper 60s and PWs near or above 1.25".
Suppose non-zero shower chances percolate later Friday afternoon/evening, but more numerous shower potential expected to hold off until Saturday. Breezy south winds area-wide on Friday.

Day 5-7 (Saturday - Monday): By Saturday morning, low pressure expected to be approaching Hudson Bay with an upstream cold front making headway toward northern MI. Shower chances as early as the pre-dawn hours Saturday morning and continue at times through much of the day, although the latest trends suggest this may be a bit disjointed with best forcing splitting north and south of northern MI.

Much cooler (more seasonable) by Sunday with additional precip potential as additional mid-level energy racing in from the west may aid in low pressure developing along what's expected to be a downstream cold front by this point. Latest ENS means suggest this area of low pressure really ramps up over Lake Huron/southern Ontario with continued showery and breezy conditions to wrap up the weekend -- potentially hanging around through at least early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 731 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Area of rain showers to continue moving in; expect this to primarily focus near and south of TVC through 8-9z...though not impossible it could get as far north as PLN. Best shot at rain will be 0z-8z, esp closer to 4-6z. Generally VFR cigs through the period but could drop to 2kft cigs or less at times tonight through 12-14z, scattering out through the day Wed. N/NW winds tonight become light/VRB, and could become NE with time after 6-8z, generally 6kts or less. Possibly a wind max of 20kts around 1500ft from the NE overnight. Look for N/NW winds 5-7kts to return after 18z Wed, though not impossible onshore lake breezes develop. Not expecting fog attm but will keep an eye on trends where it rains tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.