Sunday, August18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Corvallis, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:17AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday August 18, 2019 2:01 PM PDT (21:01 UTC) Moonrise 9:04PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or From 10 To 60 Nm- 239 Am Pdt Sun Aug 18 2019
Today..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Tonight..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 7 seconds.
Mon..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon night..N wind 10 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 5 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 8 seconds.
Wed..S wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. W swell 9 ft.
Thu..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 ft. NW swell 8 ft.
PZZ200 239 Am Pdt Sun Aug 18 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pres remains in place well offshore, while thermal low pres sits over far sw oregon and nw california. Not much change in the pattern through Tue. Then a chance, as a slow moving front approaches the region later Tue and Wed. This front will likely move onshore early Wed night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Corvallis, OR
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location: 44.56, -123.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 181645 aaa
afdpqr
area forecast discussion... Updated
national service portland or
944 am pdt Sun aug 18 2019
updated aviation section.

Synopsis A warming trend through Tuesday will give way to a chance
for rain midweek and seasonable temperatures for the latter half of
the week.

Short term Today through Wednesday... As shortwave ridging builds
over the rocky mountain states and the periphery of the ridge
impacts the pacific northwest, expect the inland intrusion of marine
clouds to diminish through Tuesday. Temperatures should respond
accordingly and warm each day as well. Expect high temperatures to
top out in the mid to upper 80s in the willamette valley and
columbia river gorge by Tuesday.

The weather becomes a little more interesting Tuesday night into
Wednesday albeit maybe just for weather geeks like us. A cutoff low
pressure currently spinning over the southern gulf of alaska has
entrained quite a bit of tropical moisture with an additional plume
of deep tropical moisture located upstream to its southwest. Models
are in good agreement this cutoff low pressure will merge with a
shortwave trough currently dropping southward across the eastern gulf
of alaska. The resulting shortwave trough is forecast to push
eastward into the pacific northwest on Wednesday, which will likely
drag a decaying front into the region. The GFS and ec ensemble
systems still suggest there is quite a bit of uncertainty on just how
organized the front will be when it moves into the region.

Nonetheless, the latest operational GFS and ec runs seem to align
well and more and more ensemble members from both modeling systems
suggest at least some rain will fall across most of the region
sometime Wednesday and or Wednesday night. Naefs ivt values continue
to climb and currently top out around 350-400 kg ms just offshore
Wednesday morning. In a three week window centered around this time
of the year, these ivt values have a return interval of occurring
once every 2-5 years so there could be some decent rains,
particularly along our northern coastal zones if the front holds
together.

What is more eye-catching is the GFS suggests pw values could
approach 2" just ahead of the front along our coastline and even in
the willamette valley on Wednesday. While the GFS appears to be
somewhat of an outlier compared to other GEFS members, there are a
number of GEFS members that produce 1.7-1.8" pw values at ksle on
Wednesday. In addition, the ec ensemble system has at least a few
members with pw values similar to the GFS albeit most peak between
1.3-1.6". Nonetheless, the qc'd SPC sounding climatology suggests the
peak pw value observed at the ksle upper air site is 1.69" (sept of
unknown year) and an internal NWS study suggests 1.74" has been
observed twice (june 25th 1973 and july 23rd 1994). So it appears we
could have a shot of breaking the highest precipitable water value
observed at the ksle upper air site. What does all of this mean for
the average person on Wednesday? It certainly has the potential to
be unusually humid and tropical feeling on Wednesday or as one our
forecasters prefers, dewpointy. In addition, if the front and
accompanying low level wind field hangs together, orographics could
be unusually efficient in wringing out rain, particularly in the
north oregon coast range and willapa hills. Neuman

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... Once the aforementioned
front either passes across the region or dissipates in place
Wednesday night and or Thursday, mid to upper level zonal flow will
spread across the pacific northwest late next week and next weekend.

The GFS and ec ensemble systems suggest 500mb heights should still
build during this timeframe, which should promote a gradual warming
trend. Nonetheless, low level northwesterly flow should persist
across the region, which should generally keep valley high
temperatures in the willamette valley and columbia river gorge in the
80s. Neuman

Aviation Marine stratus and onshore flow prevail across much
of the region this morning, but the southern willamette valley
and portions of the central oregon coast remain clear andVFR due
to n-ne low-level flow. For areas lincoln city-salem northward,
low clouds will be slow to clear given a persistent 3500-4000 ft
deep marine layer. However this is a little shallower than the
marine layer was Saturday, so there does appear a decent chance
low clouds will clear back to the coast by 20z-22z. By late
afternoon, only the coastal areas north of ktmk should have MVFR
cigs, whileVFR prevails for the remainder of the forecast area.

Model guidance continues to suggest onshore flow and a fairly
deep marine layer persisting into Monday morning, so expect
coastal low clouds to return to portions of the willamette valley
by sunrise.

Kpdx and approaches... As of 1630z, CIGS generally remain near
3000 ft across the pdx metro area, though it appears lower MVFR
cigs are banking up against the cascade foothills (and affecting
kttd at the moment). Clouds only appear 1000 ft thick at this
point, so it is likely clearing will occur this afternoon. For
kpdx, expect low clouds to scatter out by 21z. Clear skies
expected most of this evening, then low clouds return for Monday
morning. Weagle

Marine High pressure remains in place well offshore as thermal
low pressure persists over northwestern california and
southwestern oregon. Northerly winds stay at 15 kt or less
through mon. Seas still running at 3 to 5 ft, with mix of longer
and short period swell.

Little change to the overall pattern through the start of next
week. A front will approach the region late wed, with increasing
southerly winds at that time. Bit early to take to the bank, but
increasing potential of seas up to around 10 ft later wed, mostly
over the outer northern waters due to larger swells. Rockey

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SBEO3 - 9435380 - South Beach, OR 41 mi50 min NNW 8.9 G 18 64°F 53°F1012.7 hPa
NWPO3 - Newport, OR 42 mi62 min N 13 G 15 58°F
46050 - STONEWALL BANKS - 20NM West of Newport, OR 66 mi32 min N 9.7 G 14 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for South Beach, Yaquina River, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Corvallis, Corvallis Municipal Airport, OR4 mi66 minESE 510.00 miFair74°F55°F52%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVO

Wind History from CVO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr436NE11
G15
N10N11N11NW6NW6NW7NW7NW9NW8W5NW4CalmW5NW4W53NE8W43SE5
1 day agoCalmNE5SE6E8NW10NW12NW11NW11NW9NW9NW9NW5CalmCalmCalmNW4W4W4W4NW33W4NW53
2 days ago4S44N12NW14NW12W12
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Tide / Current Tables for Toledo, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Toledo
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Sun -- 03:05 AM PDT     7.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:50 AM PDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:08 PM PDT     7.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:04 PM PDT     2.00 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:06 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.45.97.17.67.36.34.83.11.60.60.40.92.23.85.56.67.16.95.94.73.42.422.3

Tide / Current Tables for Yaquina, Yaquina Bay and River, Oregon
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Yaquina
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:31 AM PDT     7.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:06 AM PDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:17 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:34 PM PDT     7.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:16 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:20 PM PDT     2.34 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:06 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.66.97.67.76.95.53.82.20.90.40.81.83.456.47.17.26.55.442.92.42.53.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.