Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bucksport, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:10 AM Update...Forecast remains on track with a clear sky across the area.

Previous Discussion...High pressure over the area will bring plenty of sunshine today with seasonable high temperatures from the mid 70s north to the upper 70s over the interior south. This will be followed by a mostly clear evening as the high slides southeast of the area.

Low pressure associated with a mesoscale convective complex will approach after midnight tonight and cross the area early Sunday morning as it rides over a large and very warm upper high to the south. This system will advect warm and humid air northward in the low to mid levels beneath a relatively cooler pocket of air aloft. This will result in elevated convection producing potentially heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms during the predawn hours Sunday morning as it moves in. There are some differences in the forecast track of this system but most guidance favors the heavier rain and elevated convection across the north very early Sunday morning. Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated with the convection being elevated. However, locally heavy rain may result in some ponding of poor drainage areas.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MCS likely to be ongoing at the start of the day on Sunday. Hires guidance and deterministic runs are painting two different pictures with movement of MCS. Latest deterministic runs are bringing the system over the northern half of the CWA while several runs from the hires models are diving the core of the MCS south into the better instability. Gut instinct is suggesting the hires models have a better handle on ultimate track of complex but cannot ignore other guidance. Therefore have gone likely to categorical over the entire CWA at 12z Sunday with locally heavy rainfall over nrn Aroostook in the morning and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall for areas to the south. PW values increase twd 1.80 inches over all areas so airmass will be primed to produce high rainfall rates, especially with 50- 60kts LLJ ahead of the system moving thru. One-hour FFG is as low as 1 inch over the Central Highlands that received heavy rainfall on Friday and the threat for isolated flash flooding certainly exists at the beginning of the period, though basin average amounts should be right around 0.50 inches.

Lingering showers should end late in the afternoon/evening hours as ridge builds back in behind wave moving into the Maritimes. 597dm high looks to be centered over the Delmarva Monday morning with H5 ridge axis building into the northeast Sunday night and early Monday. Storm track looks to remain just to our north into Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will climb well above normal with m/u 80s over all interior areas as H8 temps climb toward +20C. With sfc dwpts climbing thru the 60s this will bring heat indices toward 90 degrees over interior sections in the afternoon.

There will be little relief from the heat on Monday night as SW winds keep H8 temps around +20C overnight. Low temperatures overnight will be around 70 degrees. Lowest temperatures for 24-hour period from midnight to midnight may be recorded just after midnight Tuesday night behind fropa (more on this in the long term) but, if not, record max minimums may be rivaled in certain areas for June 24th.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
By 12z Tuesday temps will start out in the 70s for inland locations.
An approaching cold front will be located back to our northwest Tuesday morning, eventually moving through during the day. The timing of the front will determine how high temperatures can get. As of this time expect that most areas over the north will top out around 90 degrees early in the afternoon just ahead of the front.
Interior Downeast and the Bangor region look to approach the middle to upper 90s and with dewpoints remaining in the 60s/near 70 maximum heat indices should easily climb to and exceed 100 degrees. Cannot rule out the need for an Extreme Heat Watch for the Bangor area Tuesday afternoon with Heat Advisories south of a Dover-Foxcroft to Houlton line. Exception to impending heat headlines look to be across the north and along the immediate coast as interior sections look to be the most likely areas to see impacts from the heat.

With the cold front moving through Tuesday afternoon to help break the heat, showers and thunderstorms are expected. Cannot rule out strong storms during the day Tuesday as fropa occurs.

Following fropa temperatures will cool down to more seasonal values, and possibly cooler than normal. H5 high gets suppressed further to the south with zonal flow remaining acrs the northeast leading to chc for showers thru the end of next week.

AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions are expected today into the first half of tonight. Conditions may then lower to MVFR and IFR late tonight as a complex of showers and thunderstorms moves in from the west. Winds will be light SW tonight then S tonight, increasing late.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...IFR early in showers and thunderstorms, producing locally heavy rain before improving late morning. S winds 5-15kts becoming WNW in the afternoon gusting to 20kts. LLWS possible early.

Sunday night-Monday night...Mainly VFR. NW 5-10kts early becoming S 5-10kts Monday.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and storms in the afternoon, leading to brief MVFR conditions. WSW 5-15kts gusting to 20kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR. NW 5-15kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Wind and seas will be below SCA today and tonight.
Southerly winds may approach 25 kt in gusts late tonight. Seas will run around 4 ft today then 3 to 4 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: SCA over the outer waters for winds and seas on Sunday. Conditions will diminish Sunday evening with no headlines expected through the middle of the week. Warm and humid air moving over the waters likely to reduce visibilities in fog Monday and Tuesday mornings.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051.