Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Benzonia, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 959 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Theme of inherited forecast remains on track. Moist airmass is currently over northern Michigan courtesy of broad closed upper low roughly centered between Indianapolis and Louisville evident on water vapor imagery. Resultant ESE flow has allowed for ample theta- e advection to draw in a wet mop of an airmass... with widespread surface dewpoints a degree or two on either side of 60. This morning's balloon launch (12z) profile is a testament to how saturated things are across the Northwoods... with doggone near moist adiabatic lapse rates clear up to 200-250mb... and a PWAT value of 1.36, bringing it into the 99.999999th percentile for that particular parameter (per SPC sounding climatology, the May 14th 12z PWAT record is 1
37
so close!). Definitely setting the stage for the "champagne airmass" to live up to the naming... it's not gonna take much to "pop the cork" on some shower and thunder activity this afternoon. Low cloud and rain slowly starting to go by the leeway as diurnal influences begin to make their mark. Now that things are becoming clearer, it's pretty evident that low level convergence is set to drive some convective activity across NW lower this afternoon, so have gone ahead and jumped PoPs across NW lower into the likely to very likely range thru 00z. Most areas will have a convective temp of 66 to 68... anticipating highs to top out right around 70, which will be plenty to drive the development of several hundred to even 1,000 J/kg of instability. Not everyone is going to see showers this afternoon... but this is a terrific setup for "toad strangler" showers to really produce some efficient rainfall in a small area. Would not be shocked at all for a handful of localized instances where someone picks up a quick 1.50"+ of rain this afternoon.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Respectable surge of Atlantic Ocean originated moisture pinwheeling back west into the Great Lakes early this morning on north side of slow north moving Ohio Valley upper level low pressure. Local 00z sounding had precipitable water values in excess of an inch...with moisture only increasing with time since that sounding was taken.
However, lack of overall forcing and complete loss of diurnal support has resulted in a mostly dry overnight, with that moisture manifested as clouds and some fog/mist. Those clouds have kept temperatures fairly mild, even by mid-May standards...with current readings still in the 60s for many parts of the area.

Ohio Valley low/elongated troughing will continue to work north, centering itself across the Northwoods tonight. Combination of slowly increasing forcing, deep moisture, and another round of diurnally-driven instability will again set the stage for scattered showers across at least parts of the area today into tonight.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature/cloud trends and evolution of showers and potential thunderstorms today and tonight.

Details:

Pretty similar to what occurred yesterday with regards to diurnally- driven showers today...albeit with a bit better coverage anticipated with deeper moisture and some increasing large scale ascent with approach of that Ohio Valley low. Enhanced low level convergence expected across northwest lower Michigan, and again feel that is likely where better shower coverage will reside. Just enough instability to perhaps produce in-cloud charge separation and a few rumbles of thunder with any more organized updrafts. Limited instability through the hail-producing layer and weak wind fields should negate any severe concerns...although saturated conditions through the vertical does support at least some brief periods of heavier rain
And
just like yesterday, not everyone will see rain today...especially so across northeast lower into eastern upper Michigan where any showers will likely be much more isolated in nature. Plenty of clouds today will help quell the temperature response some...with highs topping out in the 60s to middle 70s...coolest near Lake Huron where persistent onshore flow is expected.

Shower coverage and organization likely to wane quickly this evening as diurnal support is lost. Can't completely rule out a few lingering light showers/sprinkles through the overnight with overhead shortwave and lingering moisture through the vertical. May see another round of light fog/mist tonight as well, but nothing too impactful expected. Mild conditions persist tonight, with lows again only dropping into the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 251 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

A shortwave trough tracking from the west and into the Midwest for Thursday has the potential to bring strong to severe storms to the area Thursday night into Friday. Guidance continues to be fairly consistent with the placement of the low but the potential for strong capping and a faster progression of the surface low and attendant front continues limited confidence, especially the nocturnal nature of the fronts passage. Dewpoints look to climb to the 60s with deepening lapse rates, modest instability, and high PWAT values. The main hazards possible still seem to be damaging winds and large hail with an advertised line of storms from guidance, also noting that heavy rainfall is likely in areas. A weak ridge builds overhead late in the weekend, providing a brief break in showers Saturday night into Tuesday with another low pressure system following a somewhat similar track to its predecessor bringing shower chances once again mid next week.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday look reach the 80s with temperatures cooling Saturday (50s/ 60s) as we get into the weekend.
Overnight lows look to be generally in the 50s/ 60s Thursday night, then look to drop to the 40s/50s Friday night through the weekend, with the exception of Sunday nights lows dipping to the mid to upper 30s/ low 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 544 AM EDT Wed May 14 2025

Still expecting a band of MVFR to IFR cigs to spread west across all the taf locations this morning. May also see a few light showers, especially at KMBL and KTVC. Some improvement in cigs expected this afternoon as mixing increases. That mixing will likely also result in an increase in showers, again...especially at or near KMBL and KTVC. May have a rumble of thunder or two as well, but nothing significant expected. MVFR to VFR conditions into this evening, with more lower cigs and some mist developing as we head through the overnight. Light winds will continue, with some local afternoon lake breeze development expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.