Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Machias, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Before Daybreak...Weak upslope producing stratocu across portions of Moosehead Region into Northern Somerset county.
Additionally, nighttime microphysics scheme satellite data shows clouds forming and remaining mostly over Katahdin and Deboullie Mtn along with higher peaks in the North Woods. Across much of the rest of the area at most there is high cirrus clouds around 20kft. Temperatures across the North are single digits below zero to single digits above zero, with the exception of Clayton Lake already down to -10F. Expecting temps to be around zero for the most part but some isolated areas down to around the -10F mark. The airmass isn't very cold tonight at 925-850mb compared to previous nights.

Today...A weak surface trof will cross the area and expected to be mainly dry with increasing cloud cover generally 4-7kft range and unlikely to produce precip. Intially westerly winds 5-15mph will shift NW behind the passage of the trof. Elongated area of positive vorticity remains overhead but with very little moisture to work with clouds will be at most what we see out of this system. High temperatures today reach seasonable levels for January 24th climatological history. Highs in the upper teens to low 20s across the North, Upper Teens for the Moosehead Region and low to mid 20s for the Central Highlands, Interior Downeast to the coastline. Avg high for Bangor is 27F with today likely reaching 26F, Caribou Avg high is 20F for today with temps reaching 19-20F.

Tonight a 500mb low around 523dam will cross the area as a surface high pressure slowly drifts in from Quebec. A pretty large ridge axis extends from the Gulf States to Quebec and Maine. Clouds will dry up across much of the southern 2/3rd of the CWA as the winds gradually weaken and go calm in many areas.
Across the north cloud cover is an uncertainty based on latest hi-res and global models (GFS, ECMWF & Canadian) for 850-250mb RH plots showing 50-60% across the far north. For now will call it partly cloudy but couldn't rule out some stratocu or at least some type of mid level deck over the St. John Valley and much of the Northern Crown. Given the cold pool aloft and likely a rather steep low level inversion developing expecting another night of many areas below zero. Looking at -10F to -5F across the North, -5F to 0F for the Central Highlands and -2F to +5F for the Downeast Coast. Guidance struggles with common terrain cold spots so couldn't rule out locations -15F to -10F in the North Woods, Aroostook & St
John River common spots

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
High pressure will be in control for Saturday with sunshine, but below normal temperatures as the cold arctic air mass remains in place. A clipper system will move from the northwest Saturday night with increasing clouds. That will cap lows to the single digits for most of the area.

A cold front associated with a clipper system crosses the area Sunday. While guidance is not showing a lot in the way of PoPs or QPF, forecast soundings continue to indicate fairly impressive surface instability by winter standards. Have gone above NBM PoPs to indicate the threat...mostly for northern zones. The instability may reach towards H6, which could mean a few fairly heavy snow showers in Aroostook County. Wind profiles do not suggest squalls.

The Sunday night forecast is still tricky with the possibility of a shallow radiation inversion. Right now, have gone with single digits and low teens based on a decent pressure gradient and steady west winds, but will have to be prepared for some downward adjustments.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Another clipper cold front offers more surface-based instability in northern zones Monday afternoon. Once again, model PoPs and QPF do not suggest anything exciting, but snow showers will certainly be a concern and some heavier snow showers are possible in the Saint John Valley by the late afternoon. The difference from the previous day is that the instability is shallower and winds will be much stronger. A low level jet with a magnitude of over 40 kt at 925mb is expected to move over the area in the afternoon and mixing depths suggest wind gusts as high as 30 mph in the afternoon.

The LLJ, strong surface winds and cloud cover will mean temperatures will drop off very little Monday night. Lift ahead of a fairly vigorous clipper indicates snow shower activity may persist across the North Woods and Aroostook County much of the night and have increased PoPs as a result.

This clipper promises to deliver more snow shower activity on Tuesday as an arctic front sweeps across the area. Whether surface low pressure develops along the front as it moves across the forecast area on Tuesday remains a question that some models such as the DWD model still propose. While not a big event that has very little moisture, there is at least a glimmer of hope for several inches of much-needed snow in portions of the North Woods and Aroostook County by Tuesday night.

The clipper is followed by another strong shot of arctic air that could result in a Cold Weather Advisory by later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning...and even more likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have gone below NBM slightly for Wednesday and Thursday highs. Model guidance has trended colder Tuesday night through Thursday.

There is one final clipper system that is expected to dive south of the area later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Nonetheless, it is possible that this system could track a bit further north and will bear watching as guidance cannot be trusted to accurately resolve such a rapid succession of clippers in a very strong northwesterly flow some 6 to 7 days out.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: SKC this morning. VFR cigs today. W winds 5-15kt shifting NW this afternoon. Tonight, SKC south and FEW-SCT VFR cigs north. NW winds 5-10kt becoming light and variable after midnight.

SHORT TERM: Saturday through Saturday night...VFR. Light winds.

Sunday...VFR with tempo IFR in snow showers from GNR/MLT/HUL northward. Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt.

Sunday night...VFR with west winds 5 to 10 kt.

Monday...VFR with tempo IFR in afternoon snow showers from GNR/MLT/HUL northward. South winds 15 to 25 kt.

Monday night and Tuesday.. MVFR tempo IFR in snow showers from GNR/MLT/HUL northward. VFR towards BGR and BHB. SW winds 10 to 20 kt. LLWS possible.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Buoys continue to show 4-6ft seas across the Coastal Waters from 10-25nm offshore. Have extended the SCA for the Coastal Waters through 6AM this morning. Light freezing spray is ongoing this morning. NW winds 10-15kt gusting up to 20kt with a few up to 25kt through today. Seas gradually subside to 2-4ft today. Tonight, NW winds generally less than 20kt and seas only 1-3ft. Light freezing spray will be once again likely tonight.
Sea surface temperatures from the Downeast Coast out 25nm and East to the Hague Line including Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Bay are running in the 38-41F range.

SHORT TERM: Light freezing spray is expected into Saturday morning. An SCA will likely be needed late Saturday night into Monday. A gale is likely to start Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday night. The gale force winds will start as southwest, but shift to northwest Tuesday night. Seas are expected to build to over 12 ft Monday night into early Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.