Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Machias, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Update...
A nearly stationary frontal boundary will remain across northern Maine this afternoon. Convergence along the boundary, along with diurnal heating, will support shower development along with isolated/scattered thunderstorms across northern and central areas through the afternoon. Any slow moving thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain. Isolated afternoon showers are possible Downeast. Otherwise, expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies across the region this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will range from around 70 to the upper 70s across much of the forecast area, with lower to the mid 60s along the Downeast coast. Have updated to adjust for current conditions along with expected afternoon temperatures and clouds.

Previous Discussion...
The main feature today will be a backdoor cold front that will get hung up over the Central Highlands this afternoon. The front will become the focus for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon into this evening. The threat area looks to be from around Moosehead Lake towards Baxter State Park and the North Woods. Model soundings show a tall, skinny CAPE profile, and almost no storm motion. This favors thunderstorms that move slowly (if at all) and produce heavy rainfall. As such, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed these areas in a slight risk for excessive rainfall. The shower and thunderstorm threat will end later this evening as instability diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. South to southeast winds will prevent more than an isolated rain shower for Bangor and Downeast today.

Patchy to areas of fog will be a concern once again tonight south of Katahdin. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s along the New Brunswick border and at the coast. Elsewhere, expect lower to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
An occluded front will continue to lift northeastwards through the forecast area during the day on Saturday. This area of lift will spur rain showers throughout the region through the day.
Most rain showers will be on the lighter side, though some more moderate rainfall is quite possible, especially along the immediate boundary and associated with any mesoscale boundaries that may develop through the day.

The center of the occluded low will likely enter the forecast area Saturday night, then slowly cross the region from west to east through the day on Sunday. As the center pushes through, steadier rain is likely, with light to moderate rainfall through the night.

By Sunday, the center of the low pressure should be moving out into the Canadian Maritimes, with showers continuing to wrap around the backside of the low through the day. Rain showers will likely continue across the entire forecast area through the day on Sunday as well as through the night Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As the occluded low continues to slowly churn off into the Canadian Maritimes, rain showers will likely continue to wrap around into the forecast area Monday through Tuesday. NW flow with the cold conveyor belt wrapping around the backside of the departing low will lead to temperatures falling below average, and will remain so through the middle of the week.

Shower activity may lessen into the day on Wednesday, but as an upper level trough remains over the area, even though there is a break between two systems, there could still be enough instability for diurnal showers to develop. The next low pressure system could approach the area from the southwest into the day on Thursday. Of the global deterministic guidance suite, the CMC is the slowest with this system. In fact, the CMC has further slowed the system in the recent 00z run such that the area remains under local narrow ridging on Thursday. The other solution that most other guidance is locked onto brings a low near or over the area on Thursday, with another round of rain and the possibility for increased winds as the low could rapidly deepen through or just south of the Gulf of Maine. All that said, at this time range either of these solutions remain in play, and great uncertainty remains at this time.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM: Variable conditions this afternoon. Generally VFR/MVFR, local LIFR. Showers along with isolated/scattered thunderstorms across northern and central areas. Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain. Isolated afternoon showers Downeast. VFR/MVFR local IFR early tonight, then MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR overnight with fog. Showers along with isolated/scattered thunderstorms early tonight, with isolated/scattered showers overnight. Across northern areas, east/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots today, with south/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots Downeast. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots regionwide tonight.

SHORT TERM: Sat - Sun: IFR in rain. Brief LIFR fog possible at coastal terminals through Sat. SE winds 5 to 10 kts shifting N Sun.

Sun night - Mon night: MVFR with brief IFR possible in lingering showers, particularly at northern terminals. N winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts.

Tues: MVFR with gradual improvement towards VFR possible. N winds 5 to 15 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. Areas of fog today through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain well below small craft advisory levels through the weekend and into early next week. Fog is likely to remain over the waters Saturday through Sunday. Additionally, scattered rain showers becoming more steady could also lead to a decrease in visibility.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.