Monday, January18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Machias, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:26PM Monday January 18, 2021 9:42 PM EST (02:42 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 558 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Tue..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of snow showers.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ005 558 Pm Est Mon Jan 18 2021
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pres will build toward the waters overnight and cross the region Tue. Weak lows will cross the region Wed then again later Thu night into Fri. Stronger canadian high pres from the W will begin building towards the waters over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Machias, ME
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location: 44.62, -67.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 182337 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 637 PM EST Mon Jan 18 2021

SYNOPSIS. Canadian high pressure will approach from the west overnight and cross the region Tuesday. Weak lows will cross south of the region Wednesday then again late Thursday night and Friday. Another stronger Canadian high will build from the west over the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. 6pm update . Extended clouds and flurries into the evening for Aroostook County. Decreased clouds for southern zones. Cold air is the big story for tonight with lows dropping towards the single digits and low teens.

Previous discussion . Still some low top isold to sct sn shwrs and sct flurries crossing thru our FA as of mid aftn, so we xtnded mention a couple hrs longer into erly eve, with meso models actually indicating most activity dissipating or movg E of the FA by erly eve. Otherwise, skies will clr from W to E across the FA beginning ovr far SW ptns this eve but not reaching far NE ptns til nearly the late ngt hrs. With colder arctic air movg into the FA amidst a brisk WNW wind, temps will fall much closer to climo ovrngt lows by Tue erly morn. Under Ptly to msly sunny skies and cont'd brisk NW winds, aftn high temps will actually be below seasonal norms as well across all of the Rgn for the first tm in weeks.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. Tue night clouds will begin to increase from the west. Light winds, intially partly cloudy skies and enough snowpack in spots will allow temperatures to fall into the single digits north, teens in the south. Generally a weak northwest flow ahead of an upper level trough approaching from the west in the even. At the surface a weak low pressure will track from Quebec into Northern Maine and fall apart. At the same time weak cyclogenesis occurs in the Gulf of Maine. Given the increased lift generated by the convergence area between these centers we can expect snow showers to develop.

During the day the low pressure in the Gulf of Maine tracks over Western Nova Scotia and continues to leave behind a somewhat inverted surface trough over the FA. This will keep snow showers ongoing throughout the afternoon and eve before the low tracks far enough east and upper support slides out. These system are very tricky because if the convergence area is strong enough, plenty of moisture you can get enhanced snowfall with the high ratios. Given all model guidance trends pointing towards this inverted trough & enhancement opted to bump up pops from what the midnight crew had in the grids. The uncertainty will be where exactly the best convergence sets up and therefore the potential for higher snow totals. Right now the 12-18z timeframe Wed looks to be the best convergence resulting in the potential for higher snowfall totals around Penobscot Bay. Generally Snowfall will be a Dusting to 1 inch but could trend higher in Penobscot Bay depending on this inverted trough. These events can be difficult to forecast right up to the onset time.

Wed Night snow showers come to an end as the trough & enhanced vorticity moves into New Brunswick. Light Northwest flow continues, clouds will break so we can expect temperatures to fall. By Thursday morning we will see lows in the upper single digits to low teens from Bangor to the Coast. Across the North generally single digits in the Northern Highlands with near Zero to slightly below Zero from Baxter points Northward. During the day Thursday an elongated stretch of vorticity will be associated with a weak warm front lifting northeast through New England. This will result in increasing cloud cover in the afternoon as moisture advects in aloft with winds shifting to a more southwest direction. High temperatures in the teens across the north with low to mid 20s from the Southern Highlands to the Downeast coast. By afternoon this front will push in and the chance of snow showers increases from southwest to northeast late day. Best chance of snow showers will be in the evening into the overnight as an elongate vorticity max swings through the FA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. Long term starts out active with the Jet Stream overhead. Friday morning will feature a weak boundary getting stuck and washing out over the FA. Aloft a 500mb weak open trough slides through after 12z which is pretty consistent in both the GFS & ECMWF operational runs. The ECMWF is a little more bullish in upper support to keep snow showers chances going during the day Friday. Opted to paint the FA area with 20-30 pops based on the trends in both major global models. It is to note Friday afternoon into the late evening hours both GFS & ECMWF are showing a potential inverted trough, some moisture and upper support in the area which could enhance the snow showers. Friday lows and highs will be near or slightly below average.

This upper level low begins to slow down out over the Canadian Maritimes and pieces of energy rotate around this feature on Saturday. This should keep the northern 2/3rd of the FA in Partly Sunny skies with a slight chance of snow showers. The pivoting disturbances will push south on Sunday providing a dry day but given the wind direction out of the north we can expect clouds. The majority of the clouds will be across Northern areas with the best sunshine down across the Bangor region & Downeast. Highs will be similar to Saturday at or slightly below average for this time of year with 20s area wide. Sun night into Mon the wind direction shifts to Northwest and we can expect decreasing cloud cover. Monday models get messy with the GFS suggesting zonal-ish northwest flow with the ECMWF showing once again another shortwave. Took the blend of guidance and that resulted in a dry, near average day with partly to mostly sunny skies.

AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: Thru Eve . Nrn TAF sites MVFR Sc/St clgs with ocnl flurries. Downeast sites VFR. Mdt W winds.

Ovrngt - Tue . All sites VFR. Lgt to mdt NW winds.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday night . VFR early. VFR/MVFR late. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday . VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR mostly Downeast with a chance of snow showers. Light and variable winds early, then north/northwest around 10 knots.

Wednesday night . VFR/MVFR early, then VFR. Northwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and variable.

Thursday . VFR. Light winds. Thursday night . VFR early, MVFR/IFR late with a chance of snow showers or light snow. Light winds.

Friday . MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with a chance of snow showers or light snow. East/northeast wind around 10 knots.

Fri night . MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers. NE shifting NW winds around 5-10kts.

Saturday . VFR with occasional MVFR/IFR across northern sites due to snow showers. VFR at southern sites. NW winds increasing to 10-15kts.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: SCA conditions will cont mainly ovr the outer waters tngt til about midday Tue before winds and seas subside below SCA thresholds by aftn. Kept close to blended model guidance for fcst wv hts. Thru this eve, wvs will still be mainly be dominated by NE propagating stm wvs with pds of arnd 10 sec. From ovrngt thru Tue wvs will be comprised of two spectral wv groups: the first a SSE propagating 3-5 sec short fetch and the second a N propagating 8-10 sec open Atlc background swell.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level winds generally expected Tuesday into Thursday. Visibilities reduced in snow showers late Tuesday night into late Wednesday. Winds drop below SCA by late Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051.

Near Term . VJN Short Term . Sinko Long Term . Sinko Aviation . VJN/Sinko Marine . VJN/Sinko


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 29 mi55 min 28°F 1003.6 hPa
CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) 29 mi55 min NNW 6 G 13 28°F 1001.8 hPa
44027 33 mi53 min 21 G 27 33°F
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 41 mi99 min NW 21 G 27 33°F 44°F7 ft1003.8 hPa
PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME 45 mi55 min WNW 5.1 G 13 28°F 1002.5 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 49 mi43 min WNW 22 G 25 1003.7 hPa (+2.6)

Wind History for Cutler Farris Wharf, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME35 mi47 minNW 9 G 1910.00 miFair26°F15°F63%1004.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoN4N4N3N4NW3SE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Addison, Pleasant River, Maine
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Addison
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:39 AM EST     11.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM EST     1.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:50 PM EST     11.77 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EST     0.62 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:19 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.29.711.211.410.38.15.431.51.22.24.47.19.711.311.810.996.23.51.50.612.6

Tide / Current Tables for Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine
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Milbridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:19 AM EST     10.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EST     1.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:13 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:30 PM EST     11.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:21 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.69.810.910.79.37.14.62.51.31.22.44.77.59.811.111.1107.95.32.91.20.61.23

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.