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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 941 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Rest of today..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of snow showers late this morning.
Tonight..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.

ANZ100 941 Am Est Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm areas of rain and snow showers will linger over the waters this morning before ending around mid day. Northeast winds will gust around 20 kts through daybreak before diminishing this afternoon. Otherwise, generally quiet weather is expected on the waters for the rest of the week. A low pressure system could bring gales late in the weekend.

FXUS61 KCAR 051432 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 932 AM EST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will build toward the region today into Wednesday, then cross the region Thursday. A warm front will approach Friday then cross the region Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
932 AM Update: Light snow showers have been observed across northern Aroostook County this morning, and although not detected on KCBW radar, current satellite imagery shows streams of cumulus pouring off the St Lawrence river to the north, and funneling into the northern half of our CWA. Without much in the way of instability, as seen on the 12z KCAR sounding, the only precipitation these streams of clouds will be capable of producing is dropping whatever moisture they carry, leading to light snow showers with little to no accumulation in our area.
Isolated snow showers in the north have been added to the forecast with this update, along with lowering max temperatures today slightly based on current observations and the expectation for persistent overcast skies based on the current pattern.

Previous Discussion...
Still a few leftover snow showers early this morning as a low pressure system and its associated inverted trough move away from the area. These snow showers will mostly end before sunrise, though cannot rule out a flurry or two near Penobscot Bay through mid-morning. Little or no additional snow accumulation with these snow showers.

Thereafter, high pressure builds into the area from the west.
Expecting at least some breaks of sun this afternoon, but will likely still have some clouds around. With continued cold air advection, it will be a cold day. Highs will only reach the 20s for most of the area, with perhaps some lower 30s near Bangor and Downeast. North winds 5-10 mph with some gusts to 15 mph are forecast for the day today.

Winds decrease tonight as the aforementioned high continues to build in. The greatest drop off is expected to be in the North Woods, closer to the high. Depending on exactly how much clearing occurs, potential exists for significant radiational cooling. Currently forecasting single digits below zero in the colder spots in the North Woods. Not out of the question some spots could get colder if there is more clearing, especially given fresh snow cover. Elsewhere, lows will mainly be in the single digits above zero, expect teens right at the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Surface high pressure builds toward the region Wednesday into Wednesday night. Aloft, an upper trof will cross the region Wednesday then begin to exit to the east Wednesday night. A disturbance will move through the exiting trof Wednesday night.
Expect partly/mostly sunny skies Wednesday. The disturbance moving through the exiting upper trof will help keep partly cloudy skies across northern areas Wednesday night, with mostly clear skies Downeast. High pressure will cross the region Thursday through Thursday night. Expect partly/mostly sunny skies north Thursday, with mostly sunny skies Downeast. Expect mostly clear skies across the entire region Thursday night.
Temperatures will be at below normal levels Wednesday/Thursday.
Low temperatures Wednesday night will be dependent on the extent of overnight cloud cover.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High pressure will begin to exit across the Maritimes Friday. A warm front will approach the region later Friday with the developing return flow around exiting high pressure. Expect mostly/partly sunny skies Friday, with clouds then increasing Friday night in advance of the approaching warm front. The warm front will cross the region Saturday. Expect mostly cloudy skies with the warm front Saturday. Low pressure will also begin to intensify and lift toward the Great Lakes later Saturday. The low will lift northeast across the Great Lakes toward Quebec province Sunday, drawing a cold/occluded front toward the region. However, timing differences with the low and front still exist. A more rapid system movement could bring precipitation to the region later Sunday, while a slower progression could delay the onset into Sunday night. With a track west of the region, warmer air will be drawn north across the forecast area. Based on expected temperatures and critical thickness values, generally expect precipitation in the form of rain. Rain will persist in advance of the cold/occluded front, tapering to showers in the wake of the front. A more rapid timing could bring the front across the forecast area Sunday night, while a slower timing could delay the front into Monday.
Rain showers could mix with snow showers in the wake of the front across northern areas. A strong low level jet will also cross the region in advance of the cold/occluded front. The low level jet could support gusty south/southeast winds across mostly Downeast areas. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Friday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Saturday, with much above normal level temperatures Sunday. Temperatures Monday will be dependent on the eventual timing of the cold/occluded front.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR conditions early this morning with isolated -SHSN. Conditions improve towards VFR at all terminals late this morning, and remain there through the day today. VFR at all terminals tonight. N winds 5-15 kts today, becoming light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday...VFR. North/northwest winds around 10 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night into Saturday...VFR. West/northwest winds around 5 knots Thursday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Friday into Friday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast Saturday.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters through this morning and into early this afternoon due to wind gusts around 25 kt reported and wave heights around 5 feet. Winds and seas will subside below SCA levels this afternoon, and remain there through tonight. Conditions on the intra-coastal waters remain sub-SCA today and tonight. A few snow showers are possible on all waters this morning.

SHORT TERM: Conditions below small craft advisory levels Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions then possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Conditions below small craft advisory levels Thursday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.

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Winterport
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:25 AM EST     10.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:44 AM EST     2.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:29 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:33 PM EST     10.65 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:14 PM EST     1.75 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Gross Point
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Tue -- 12:51 AM EST     Last Quarter
Tue -- 04:22 AM EST     9.09 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:40 AM EST     2.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:28 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:55 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     9.41 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:10 PM EST     1.54 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Gross Point, Eastern Channel, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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