Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winterport, ME

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winterport, ME

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Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 050313 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1113 PM EDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will remain stalled off the coast tonight then gradually move north into the Maritimes Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will remain nearby to our east Wednesday into Thursday then gradually weaken on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
11:10 PM Update...Forecast is on track with rain beginning to move north of the Downeast region now and clouds advancing north across the northern half of the area. Sharpened the leading edge of the rain and modified temps down a degree or two over the north where the sky has been clear.

Prev Disc: Low pressure will remain off the coast, slowly wobbling into the Gulf of Maine overnight tonight and into Monday morning. Currently the main low is slightly further to the south and east, and the main precip band has moved over Downeast accordingly. As the low center moves northwestward, rain will move further north through the forecast area as well.
Rain is expected to move over Bangor and Interior Downeast later this evening, then gradually shift northward, affecting Eastern Aroostook County by morning. As this happens, the main upper level low complex will also shift slightly eastward, moving the area of greatest divergence over the eastern Maine border. This means that the heaviest precipitation is expected to fall along the Downeast coast this evening, with lighter rainfall further north. Downeast can expect another 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain for the next 24 hours, but amounts will greatly diminish north of the I-95 corridor. Northern Maine can expect less than 0.25", so tonight and tomorrow should be less wet than Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Negative NAO pattern remains in place through the period. A vertically stacked upper in the Canadian Maritimes will be the dominant weather maker. It will be blocked by a large upper ridge upstream. The closed upper low will strengthen Monday night into Tuesday as a strong upper jet rounds the base of the low, and then drift northward into Nova Scotia on Tuesday.
The low retrogrades towards Maine on Wednesday.

The low circulation will ensure plenty of moisture flows westward into the state throughout the forecast period, ensuring cloudy skies and periods of rain. The cloudiness, rain and cool H925/850 temps will produce much cooler than normal temperatures.

Deeper Atlantic moisture will be on the east side of low circulation. That leaves PWs less than an inch wrapping around the low circulation into the CWA. Lift looks fairly weak. While total QPF may total a half inch to an inch for the entire 48 hour period, no heavy precip is expected. PoPs increase Monday night into Tuesday as the wrap-around occlusion arrives from New Brunswick and moves westward across the area. Since the upper low then drifts westward towards the area, will maintain high PoPs across the area through Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
The blocking pattern will slowly break down later in the week as the closed upper low slowly fills and opens up by next weekend.
Expect weak ridging to build from the north Friday into Sunday, but it is hard to forsee any days without at least a chance of showers.

The upper low is still expected to be over the area on Thursday with periods of rain, cloudy skies and cool temperatures. While the upper low weakens and pulls out to the northeast Friday and Saturday, residual moisture and lift from the upper trough seems likely to generate at least diurnally-driven shower activity Friday and probably on Saturday too. Temperatures will recover towards normal values Friday into Sunday.

The transient ridge arrives by Saturday night, but another upper trough digs southwestward out of Canada by later Sunday with the risk of more showers or thunderstorms.

AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: Widespread MVFR cigs across the forecast area tonight, with some sunny breaks along the northern border this evening. In the south, conditions will drop to IFR this evening as heavier rainfall moves in. MVFR/IFR conditions will linger tomorrow morning as rain moves further eastward with plenty of low-level moisture to keep cigs low through the TAF period. Some improvement to MVFR in the afternoon likely for S sites, w/N sites likely to remain MVFR. NE to N winds 10 to 15 kts gradually diminishing.

SHORT TERM: Monday night into Thursday morning...Predominately MVFR cigs with a trend towards VFR each afternoon. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday into Friday...VFR tempo MVFR in showers with light winds.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: SCA winds will remain through tomorrow, with a few gusts possible to 35kts this evening. Winds gradually diminishing Monday morning. Seas 5 to 7 ft Sunday, subsiding Monday to 3 to 5 feet by afternoon.

SHORT TERM: No advisories, warnings or fog are forecast during the period.
Seas will be 2 to 3 feet or less and around 1 foot in the bays.
Winds will be north to northwest 10 to 15 kt until Saturday when prevailing winds swing to southwest.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ050>052.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KBGR

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Wind History from BGR (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Winterport, Penobscot River, Maine

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