Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Winterport, ME

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
9:11 PM Update: Satellite pictures show high clouds now advancing into the CWA from the west. The clouds will lower and thicken overnight with snow to develop across southwest sections of the FA after midnight, and will spread toward the New Brunswick border a few hours before daybreak. Temperatures are dropping rapidly this evening, especially the northern valleys with light/calm wind and fresh snow on the ground where a few spots below zero with Houlton at -4F as of 9 PM. Have made some tweaks to the hourly temperatures and lows, but still expect that as the clouds move in later tonight that temperatures level off and eventually slowly rise.

Previous discussion: High pressure exits across the Maritimes early tonight. A clipper system then approaches from the west later tonight drawing a warm front toward the region. Mostly clear skies are expected early tonight, with clouds then rapidly increasing later this evening. Isentropic lift with warm advection will then support an area of snow expanding, from southwest to northeast, across the forecast area overnight. The clipper system will cross the forecast area early Sunday, exiting across the Maritimes late drawing a cold front across the region. Snow will persist through early Sunday afternoon, then taper to snow showers. Total snow accumulations through Sunday afternoon are expected to range from 2 to 4 inches. Temperatures will fall rapidly early tonight, then stabilize and begin to slowly warm overnight with increasing clouds and developing snow. Low temperatures will occur early tonight ranging from around zero north, through the teens Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from the lower to mid 20s north, to the lower to mid 30s Downeast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
North to northwest flow is expected Sunday night behind the exiting clipper system. The combination of partial clearing and light winds leads to radiational cooling conditions, especially where greater snow pack exists. Thus, continued the theme of undercutting NBM lows by several degrees Sunday night.

Surface high across Quebec province builds down across the area on Monday. Expect a mainly sunny start to the day followed by increasing afternoon cloudiness in advance of the next system approaching from the west. Afternoon highs will only range from the mid 20s north and the lower 30s for Bangor and Downeast.

Monday evening...low pressure will be located north of the Great Lakes region with an occluded front moving toward the area.
Clouds continue to increase and thicken across the region Monday night. Light snow develops from west to east in advance of the occlusion prior to midnight for western areas and the Bangor region. It takes the low levels a bit longer to moisten up further to the north, thanks to the high across Quebec, so snow develops a bit later in the night for areas to the east of route 11. Warmer air aloft starts to nose into the Bangor region and Downeast Maine late Monday night, and that results in a wintry mix developing by daybreak Tuesday for the aforementioned area.
QPF is light (a tenth of an inch or less) but still could be a bit slick for the morning commute in the Bangor region and interior Downeast first thing Tuesday. The snow transitions to a light wintry mix by Wednesday afternoon for the central highlands up through the Millinocket and Houlton region before tapering off. The far north should remain mainly light snow much of the day, where an inch or two will be possible through the daylight hours Tuesday. Any light wintry mix for the Bangor region tapers to rain by afternoon as temperatures climb into the mid 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A bit of a lull in the precipitation is expected Tuesday evening as the occluded front fizzles out. Large scale trof digs as far south as the Gulf Coast states Tuesday night. This results in a broad south to southwest flow setting up across our area with warm advection. Patchy fog/drizzle, and perhaps some freezing drizzle is possible Tuesday evening.

The atmospheric column continues to moisten later Tuesday night and Wednesday as moisture feeds northeast from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of a slow moving frontal boundary approaching from the west. This will set the stage for a possible heavy rain event regionwide Wednesday into Wednesday night. PWATs are expected to surge to around 1.5" as Gulf moisture feeds northward ahead of the front. A 925MB jet of 60+ kts is expected to traverse the area, and this will lead to potential wind issues for Downeast Maine and the coast. In addition, the potential for heavy rain and any localized hydro issues will need to monitored by midweek, with the expected heavy rainfall and runoff from snowmelt. Highs on wednesday are expected to climb well into the 40s

The cold front pushes east into New Brunswick province Thursday morning. This could lead to a brief change to snow before precipitation ends. It turns much colder but drier behind the system for next weekend.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions through 06Z. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, conditions then develop overnight and persist into Sunday with snow. Light and variable wind, becoming southeast/east overnight at 5 to 10 knots, shifting north/northwest Sunday.

SHORT TERM:

Sun night through Mon...VFR. N wind 5 to 10 kt.

Mon night...VFR early, then IFR in snow after midnight.

Tue...IFR. Snow N and mix to rain S.

Tue night...IFR.

Wed and Wed night...IFR. Low ceilings/rain. Gusty SE to S wind. LLWS

Thu.. MVFR/IFR early, then becoming VFR.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all the waters later tonight into Sunday afternoon. Snow later tonight, then snow and rain Sunday, mainly in the morning.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are possible into Sunday evening and Monday afternoon. Winds increase to possible Gale force levels Wednesday and Wednesday night with seas building to over 10 ft.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050- 051.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday for ANZ052.