Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Suamico, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 259 AM CDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A band of light showers and sprinkles was noted across northern Wisconsin early this morning. Precipitation chances the rest of today into this evening will be difficult to diagnose given the fairly weak dynamics in place across the region. Therefore, will continue with low chances (10-20 percent) as activity will be isolated and light in nature. Less shower activity should allow temperatures to warm up from yesterday, especially across north- central Wisconsin.

The area will get into the warm sector on Monday as a low pressure system develops across the northern CONUS. This will allow temperatures to soar as dew points rise into the 60s, providing for a warm and humid air mass across the western Great Lakes.
There may be some pre-frontal showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front during the day on Monday.
SBCAPEs will be less than 1000 J/kg on Monday with 20 knots of bulk shear; therefore, these storms are not expected to be severe.

An MCS developing across Minnesota Monday afternoon is progged to push east coincident with the cold front Monday night. This activity is slated to track through central and north-central Wisconsin late Monday evening and the rest of the area overnight on Monday. MUCAPEs across central and north-central Wisconsin will still be 1500-2000 J/kg Monday evening as the storms move through the region. Therefore, some strong to severe storms will be possible if the storms hold together mainly west of the Fox Valley. The threat for these storms to hold together appears a bit higher this run as the marginal risk has been pushes slightly eastward with the caveat that there is still not high confidence in this scenario.

Another MCS is forecast to develop on Tuesday and track east Tuesday night. While the models generally take this system to our south, there are some models that do graze portions of central and east-central Wisconsin with this system Tuesday night as MUCAPEs will be as high as 2000 to 3000 J/kg with 30-40 knots of effective shear late Tuesday afternoon. Although these values do wane Tuesday evening, the region will still be close to the CAPE gradient. This could lead to some strong to severe storms Tuesday night depending on how close the MCS gets to the area and if the instability or reservoir of instability will be close enough for storms to tap into it.

The middle to late part of the week is difficult to pin down as models indicate there will be several additional opportunities for the generation of MCSs that track through the western Great Lakes region. The region will generally be in a warm humid airmass with unstable conditions. The main question will be what other features like mid level shortwaves in the zonal flow track through and when. The longer range models are in some kind of agreement that a system could affect the region Friday night as a shortwave tracks through the western Great Lakes with substantial instability and shear. However, subsequent runs could alter the timing or trajectory of this system.

AVIATION
/06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Observational trends and short term forecast guidance continues to indicate persistent stratus overnight ranging from LIFR to MVFR from central to northern Wisconsin, with higher likelihoods for VFR conditions along Lake Michigan and through the Fox Valley. Some MVFR/IFR fog may also persist overnight over northern Wisconsin.

Confidence remains lower on coverage and placement of showers overnight into Sunday. Maintained some SHRA at central Wisconsin sites late tonight into Sunday, based on loose consensus of high res model, but some adjustments may be needed. Otherwise, there is not a strong precip signal evident through the rest of the TAF period.

Winds will generally remain easterly, but will shift a bit more southerly in spots on Sunday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.