Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Suamico, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:16PM Saturday March 28, 2020 6:53 PM CDT (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 11:37PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:202003290500;;215556 Fzus53 Kgrb 282041 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 341 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-290500- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 341 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..NE wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts veering E before midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Patchy fog early, then areas of fog after midnight. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..SE wind 5 to 10 kts veering sw mid-day, then veering nw 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely.
Sunday night..NW wind 15 to 20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of flurries after midnight.
Monday..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suamico village, WI
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location: 44.66, -87.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 282307 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 607 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Sunday Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The main forecast concern to be on potential heavy rainfall tonight as a strong early Spring storm moves across the region.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed the strong area of low pressure situated over southwest IA with a warm front extended eastward across central IL into south-central IN. A cold front stretched southwest from the low pressure into the central Plains. A weak area of high pressure was located across Ontario. One band of rain showers moved through northeast WI earlier today with the next round of showers to move through late this afternoon.

The vertically-stacked system to move from southwest IA into central WI tonight with the warm front to reach into far southern WI before the cold front drives eastward over southern sections of the Great Lakes. Strong synoptic lift to spread across northeast WI tonight, aided by a coupled jet structure. Plenty of moisture to be present with PW values in the 0.75-1.00" range. As the closed upper low approaches, mid-level forcing ramps up as well. Putting this altogether, anticipate a large swath of rain to overspread the area this evening with locally heavy rainfall. Rain amounts this evening alone could reach one-third to three-quarters of an inch range. Thunderstorms are still possible this evening over central/east-central WI due to strong shear and weak elevated instability. Since we do not get into the warm sector, expect small hail to be the main threat. In addition to the rain, gusty east-northeast winds this evening could produce minor lakeshore flooding on the west side of the Bay of Green Bay, along with the eastern shores of Door County (due to high waves). Ice shoves are also possible on the western side of the Bay and western shores of Lake Winnebago. After a busy evening, models show a dry slot rotating into eastern WI which would allow for the rain to diminish a bit. Winds will also diminish overnight as the surface low moves into WI. Min temperatures to be in the middle to upper 30s north, upper 30s to lower 40s south.

As the system moves toward the northern tip of Lower MI on Sunday, wrap-around moisture in a cyclonic flow will bring additional light rain to northeast WI. As temperatures begin to cool late in the day, some wet snow may mix with the rain over parts of north- central WI. Winds will be on increase through the day as the pressure gradient tightens behind the departed surface low. Gusts could approach 30 mph, but the wind direction to be west- northwest, thus no lakeshore flooding expected. However, ice shoves cannot be ruled out over eastern sections of the Bay or eastern shores of Lake Winnebago. Do not anticipate much of a diurnal rise in temperatures with readings only reaching around 40 degrees north- central WI, middle to upper 40s east- central WI.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Fairly quiet weather expected through at least mid-week before the next chance of precipitation arrives toward the end of the work week.

Sunday night: A vertically stacked surface low and upper low, centered over northern Lower Michigan, will shift eastward into southwest Quebec by early Monday morning. As cold air advects into the area on the back side of the low, expect some of the lingering precipitation will transition to light snow. Some minor accumulation will be possible, mainly across north-central Wisconsin where some upslope and added lake moisture could add to the lingering precipitation. At this point, it continues to look like an inch or less for mainly Vilas and Oneida counties with little to no accumulation expected elsewhere. In fact, most other locations may end up remaining light rain or drizzle. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest east-central and far northeast.

Monday through Tuesday night: As the low shifts farther east, drier air will begin filtering in from the west Monday morning. Some clouds will likely linger through late morning or early afternoon before high pressure builds in Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Otherwise, this time period is expected to be fairly quiet. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s with overnight lows mainly in the 30s.

Rest of the extended: The high pressure ridge is expected to shift eastward through the day Wednesday, allowing more moist southerly flow to increase. This will be ahead of the next potential system arriving from the northern Plains. There are significant model differences in timing and placement with the next feature, which keeps confidence in any one model solution very low. At this point, will stick with a blend of the models for the end of the work week, bringing a better chance of unsettled weather back to northeast Wisconsin. Temperatures are expected to be near normal through this time period.

AVIATION. for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Poor flight conditions are expected throughout the period as a deep cyclone becomes vertically stacked as it tracks east northeast from the Central Plains. Conditions will settle into the LIFR category this evening, then remain generally LIFR or IFR through tomorrow. Scattered thunderstorms will produce small hail this evening. LLWS will also increase this evening as winds aloft strengthen over the area.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A widespread 0.75 to 1.5" of rainfall is expected this weekend. This amount of rainfall, coupled with saturated soils, will lead to additional rises on area rivers. Many rivers will remain above bankfull, with a few reaching minor flood stage.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ022-039- 073-074.

SHORT TERM . Kallas LONG TERM . Cooley AVIATION . Skowronski HYDROLOGY . Kallas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi53 min ENE 11 G 15 38°F 1006.3 hPa (-2.7)
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 36 mi53 min NNE 22 G 25 35°F 37°F1006.7 hPa (-3.9)35°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI16 mi60 minENE 109.00 miLight Rain40°F39°F97%1006.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRB

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE7NE5NE8NE7CalmNE8N8NE14NE10NE13NE10NE11N10NE12NE10NE14NE13NE11NE12NE11NE9NE11NE10
1 day agoNE5NE3SE4E3CalmCalmE4CalmN5N4NE5NE4CalmE7E4NE6E4E64NE7NE7NE8NE9NE9
2 days agoS6SW3NW3CalmNW4NE10NE11N6NE9NE12NE8NE6E3N4NE3N11NE7NE8NE8NE10
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.