Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Suamico, WI

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Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday July 18, 2019 10:31 PM CDT (03:31 UTC) Moonrise 9:55PMMoonset 6:53AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:201907191015;;279813 Fzus53 Kgrb 190206 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 906 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-191015- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 906 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019
.small craft should exercise caution from early this morning through this evening...
Rest of tonight..SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts veering W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Suamico village, WI
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location: 44.66, -87.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 182330
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
630 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
updated aviation portion for 00z TAF issuance

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 352 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
several forecast problems to be sorted out over the next 24 hours,
ranging from: location extent of convective complex tonight,
possibility of severe heavy rain, high temperatures and heat index
values on Friday.

The 19z msas surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure
over central lake mi with a warm front extended east-southeast
across central lower mi. A cold front was located over the
northern plains and various outflow boundaries from thunderstorms
over the region. Radar mosaic indicated the only storms in our
vicinity were over northwest wi as a mid-level shortwave moves
toward northern sections of the great lakes.

Models are getting into better sync with regards to moving the
cold front into the western great lakes region tonight and
stalling this boundary somewhere over central wi after midnight.

Increasing WAA moisture transport will combine with convergence
along the boundary to fire off another round of showers
thunderstorms this evening with the highest pops over central
east-central wi. Far northern wi may escape a good deal of
tonight's convection. The precipitation is forecast to persist
through much of tonight and with pw values of around 2 inches,
heavy rain will be a distinct possibility. This scenario will need
to be watched for potential flooding (i.E., urban small stream or
flash). Since the exact axis of heavier rain is uncertain, have
held off any flood watches at this time. As for severe potential,
0-6km bulk shear of 35-45 knots is more than enough to make up for
weakening instability with a few of the storms becoming strong or
even briefly severe. Torrential downpours and damaging wind gusts
would be the main threats as most of the area remains under a
slight risk of severe weather. Min temperatures to range from the
middle to upper 60s north, to the lower to middle 70s south.

The overnight convection should depart east-central wi Friday
morning, leaving a hot humid air mass over the region for the rest
of Friday. The stalled front should begin to move back north as a
warm front as southwest winds aloft start to increase. Despite a
mid-level cap in place, cannot rule out a small chance of showers
thunderstorms late in the day with the front in the vicinity and a
mid-level shortwave approaching from the west. However, the main
story to be the hot temperatures with readings reaching the middle
80s near lake mi, around 90 degrees north and lower to middle 90s
south. Add in dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s and we
will have a heat index range from the lower to middle 90s north,
97 to 107 south. Have added marathon, shawano, menominee, oconto
and marinette counties to the heat advisory. After collaboration
with arx and mkx, have cut the end time of the advisory from 11 pm
to 7 pm. Thus, the headline to run from noon to 7 pm Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 352 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
main forecast concerns during the extended are the severe weather
chances Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday afternoon
and evening. Other highlights in the extended are the upper-level
pattern changing, allowing for more seasonal temperatures and
drier conditions into the middle of next week.

Friday night into Saturday... Even though a zonal mean flow aloft
will remain over the upper mississippi valley through Saturday, a
mid-level disturbance will push into the region from the west on
Friday evening. Depending on how far north this disturbance and
its associated frontal boundary will move on Friday, it is
possible for the southern portions of the forecast area to remain
dry due to capping, with thunderstorms only impacting far northern
wisconsin. However, some model guidance suggests the disturbance
will move across central wisconsin. There is plenty of instability
across the forecast area during this time, with effective shear
values between 30 and 50 knots, with the highest shear values over
far northern wisconsin. Strong to severe storms will be possible
with the main threats being damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Localized flooding will also be possible. The showers and storms
would likely end after midnight.

Saturday into Sunday... By early Saturday morning, the nearly
stationary frontal boundary will begin shifting further south over
wisconsin. However, since the frontal boundary will extend across
the northern plains, mid-level moisture and f-gen will cause
convection to redevelop along the boundary. Model guidance
indicates a cluster of showers and storms will impact the forecast
area from Saturday morning through midday Saturday. Since
instability will not be as high during this time to cause severe
weather, heavy rain will be the main concern as pwat values will
be approaching 2.0 inches. By Saturday afternoon and evening, the
frontal boundary will continue its trek south across wisconsin.

This will keep the higher chances for showers and storms across
southern wisconsin during this time. This region will also have
the highest instability to allow strong to severe storms. East-
central wisconsin could end up on the edge of this risk for
Saturday evening, with the main concern being heavy rain and
damaging winds. Localized flooding would also be possible.

Showers and storms would come to an end Saturday night.

Rest of the extended... The upper-level pattern will change on
Sunday to a northwest flow, as a strong ridge of high pressure
begins to build across the central u.S. This will cause drier
conditions across the forecast area and seasonal temperatures into
the middle of next week.

Aviation For 00z TAF issuance
issued at 629 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
sct-bkn cumulus clouds continue over most of the TAF sites early
this evening with moist southwest flow. A strong capping inversion
has prevented convection from firing across wisconsin thus far.

However further upstream a thunderstorm complex is developing over
southern minnesota. Hi-res models track the bulk of this complex
through southern wisconsin later tonight, however central and
east-central wisconsin do get grazed by the complex by some of the
mesoscale models. Therefore will continue the thunderstorm chances
for the far southern TAF sites during the overnight and early
Friday morning hours. Once the complex clears the area the models
generally clear the skies out. However there is a chance they
remain overcast throughout the day. In addition, there is the
chance for MVFR fog later tonight with light winds and abundant
boundary layer moisture.

Kosh Bkn-sctVFR ceiling height are expected during the evening
hours. A thunderstorm complex developing across southern minnesota
is then expected to track through the area late tonight and into
the early morning hours. There is still uncertainty if this
complex will reach the kosh airport, however if it does the most
likely window is 06-10z. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be
the main threats. Windshifts of interest include variable wind
direction activity tied to thunderstorm cold pool around after 09z
Friday and wind shift back to southwest at around 16z Friday then
the south around 19z.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from noon to 7 pm cdt Friday for wiz013-020-021-
030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Hykin
aviation... ... .Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45014 14 mi31 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 80°F 74°F1006.5 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi43 min S 4.1 G 7 1006.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 36 mi43 min SSW 5.1 G 6
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 49 mi51 min SSW 4.1 G 8 76°F 1007.5 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI16 mi38 minSW 410.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S4S4S5S6S7S10S6NW5S5CalmSE3SW7SW10
G19
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1 day agoN5N7NE8NE9N8N10NE7NE10NE12NE9E7E7E4NE6NE4SE7E7SE7E11E8E8E6E5E4
2 days agoSW10SW20
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SW8W44CalmN5NW3N4CalmN5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.